Sammy Watkins - I was wrong........

[Ol Dirty B]

23 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

These new salaries are unreal.    Five dudes from Sammy's WR class now making north of $15M per year.

 

That used to be franchise QB money a few years ago, now they pay it to a guy that's averaged 750 yards per season in his first four years.  And $30M of it is guaranteed

 

Brady's 2005 contract was 6 years, $10M per year, $28M guaranteed.  Sammy just got guaranteed more than Brady did for HALF the amount of years, even after Tom had two rings.

 

Well, it's 13 years later. I'm sure if you went and compared Brady's contract and others from 2005 to contracts in 1992, they'd look really high also.

 

It's an absurd metric.

19 hours ago, teef said:

1972 doesn't get it.  he still think sammy walks on water.

 

I'm confused, did you guys not see the only half season where he was healthy with Tyrod? 

 

Injuries completely derailed that connection. He was absolutely game changing when he was healthy that year. Small sample, but again, like it was with him, his issue was staying healthy.

 

It wasn't effort, talent, or not being able to play with Tyrod. Those two complimented each other very well.

[teef]

34 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

 

I'm confused, did you guys not see the only half season where he was healthy with Tyrod? 

 

Injuries completely derailed that connection. He was absolutely game changing when he was healthy that year. Small sample, but again, like it was with him, his issue was staying healthy.

 

It wasn't effort, talent, or not being able to play with Tyrod. Those two complimented each other very well.

Sure. Sammy is a good wr.  He just isn’t elite, and his new high salary doesn’t change that until his production shows it. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, teef said:

Sure. Sammy is a good wr.  He just isn’t elite, and his new high salary doesn’t change that until his production shows it. 

He's like a top 20-25ish WR imo. I could make a list...I like making lists.

[Elite Poster]

On 3/13/2018 at 1:25 PM, ddaryl said:

definitely well overpaid by KC.. For that kind of money I would expect Sammy to avg 100 catches a season

 

It is impossible to avg 100 catches, if you don't get over 100 targets. 

[ddaryl]

49 minutes ago, Elite Poster said:

 

It is impossible to avg 100 catches, if you don't get over 100 targets. 

 

 

??????????????????   I have no idea why you would feel the need to point that out to me.

[Elite Poster]

18 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

??????????????????   I have no idea why you would feel the need to point that out to me.

 

He could easily avg 100 catches.

[ddaryl]

Just now, Elite Poster said:

 

He could easily avg 100 catches.

 

 

Did he average 100 catches for the rams or the Bills.. NO therefore it did not happen.

 

But my 100 catches comment is in reference to what i would expect if I was KC paying that kind of money for him. Therefore I still have no understanding on why you felt you needed to chime in with the 100 catches comment. He wasn't targeted 100 times by the Bills or the Rams .

 

hell I could name 50 WRs that could put up 100 catches if they were targeted 150 times in a season.

[Bill_with_it]

9 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Yea that’s not how it works.     If he got it he’s worth it.    Just like real estate.  

Nope see Brock O., Jamarcus Russell, Marcell Dareus, and a long list of overpaid athletes...

[Ayjent]

13 hours ago, P51 said:

 

I respectfully disagree with some of what you have to say here, but respect your opinion and agree to a certain extent with some of it. 

 

There certainly are plays where it can be debated if he has given enough effort, there are also plays where it can not be debated, from what Ive seen I disagree that he is not dependable nor that he does not give enough effort.

 

From what Ive seen on this board most people cherry pick one or two and use that as an absolute. Ive seen plenty of Watkins from the BIlls and Rams to know that those 50/50 balls are generally forced into coverage or bad throws that few humans can adjust and make the catch, but he does better than he is given credit for, if I remember right his contested catch rate was 60% last year, so he actually wins more 50/50 balls than he does not, and his contested catch rate for his QB's, QBR was in the top 10 for Goff. If the NextGen and other Analytics sights are wrong, so are my eyes.  Can he do a better job of getting seperation? IMO Yes, there are routes (usually short to intermediate) where his stem is poor and he relies on his athleticism too much, but he's 24 and shown drastic improvement since being drafted. He's been and still is however one of the best vertical threats in the league. He's still 24 and gone through a foot surgery plenty needed a second surgery for and still gone on to All NBA and All NFL careers.

 

Throughout his career there are more plays where he was dependable, in the right spot and NFL "open", College "open" and not looked at or thrown too where he does not need to win a 50/50 ball, but actual game film is ignored in this regard. I agree he is physically talented and that is not enough in the NFL, but besides winning 60% of his 50/50 balls and helping his QB out among the leagues best in contested situations, what else do you want him to do? What would get you excited?

 

Watkins might not be an elite receiver, I think he is, but can see why yourself and others think he is not, he might become one in time, he might not in the eyes of those who do and do not believe so. Okay? that to me is downplaying his skill set and ability. 

 

Comparing him and Robert Woods is like comparing Jerome Bettis to Danny Woodhead, they are as polar opposite WR's as there is. Watkins is true #1 vertical WR, while Woods is a capable #2,  functional #1 if needed, who runs clean routes is quicker than fast and an ideal slot receiver who gives 100% effort, run blocks and apparently is f^#*ing crazy.  He also does not draw the defenses #1 CB or double coverage. He fits what McVay wants like a glove from a non-#1 WR perspective especially as much as he wants to spread the ball around.  I also believe Woods contested catch rate is less than 50%. 

 

The Rams saw that and gave Woods a market contract, they saw Watkins (who was traded for a 2nd round pick and a starting CB) was legit downfield threat and #1 WR and is on KC because the Rams lack foresight, and not having the money to retain him. They planned for this years salary cap like my cousin plans on his next fix. They wanted Watkins back, stated so, but did not use any long term thought or cap management into making it happen. If they had the cap room they would have made every to bring Watkins back (at $16M, IDK) I beleive. They have major issues moving forward cap wise, and lots of players and tough choices to deal with.

 

Watkins advanced stats also were better than Woods in everything I have seen. 

 

Lofty expectations for KC, I think they are taking care of the offensive side of the ball to make that happen though myself. 

 

As for Sammy, I think that would be about right, 8 -10 targets a game. IMO 10 targets a game should get you about 100 receptions for Sammy and both Watkins skill and the Chiefs contract for him would be justified and realistic. 8 targets would make it tough, but his abiltiy to stretch the field and Mahommes arm could make it work. 

 

Perspective/Reference: Antonio Brown had 163 targets last year and 101 receptions. 1500 yds and 9 TDs.

 

I think with that kind of targeting Watkins has similar production. 

You make some good points but you have to realize that the Rams didn’t need to spend that money on Watkins given his role and what he produced for their offense.   Sure he was nice for them but he wasn’t the guy that they depended on in the passing game, and that is why I brought up Woods.  I fully recognize their differences (Woods and Watkins) but the contrast is more about how they help their team consistently.  Sometimes stats without context are just BS regardless of how “advanced”.  Watkins had a lower Rec to Target ratio, and less targets - which is probably due to more long balls for Watkins, but it also shows that his role was that of a nice big play threat, but not a primary receiver.  Watkins was effective in the red zone and that isn’t a small deal, but Woods was there game in and game out and is simply more dependable.  Sammy even conceded that Woods was the “Alpha” during the season last year.  Sammy can have a big game or barely make a whimper and to me that is a guy that is a luxury not a must have and at $16 mil/yr that is a substantial luxury that may preclude you from paying for more dependable and useful production.  

 

I know a lot of people think Mahomes has a big arm and having Watkins, Kelce and Hill is going to open up KC’s offense, but I can’t see Reid with a first year starter at QB unleashing a deep ball attack on a consistent basis.  He’s a WC offense guy that had Alex Smith not throw a TD to a WR for nearly an entire season.  I honestly think that people in KC are going to sour on Reid very fast if Mahomes and the weapons he has don’t produce an instant success, even though I think those are unreal expectations.   I Think Reid has Watkins eyed for a different role that is more like what he did at Clemson, but given his injury history that plan may not pan out, but it may.  I think he will see more targets in that role, but he hasn’t been asked to do that in the NFL and getting crushed by safeties and LBers is a little different in the NFL.

 

He’s been in the league long enough, it’s time to stop talking about potential and start talking about what he is and is not.  He is not Antonio Brown.  Maybe he isn’t getting the targets because he doesn’t earn them and smart QBs and coaches aren’t going to force targets unless they like punting and turnovers.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Ayjent