GunnerBill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down. One of the pieces of analysis I haven't seen yet is how the increase in 2 point attempts has impacted on 2 point success rates. I heard anecdotally someone on one of these shows say "it's dipped" but I can't for the life remember who it was and I've not seen any numbers to interrogate the truth of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 hours ago, pimp on da' net said: This is an inaccurate account of my original post...I clearly stated that overall I agree with Polian ( not all comments) in regards to using in game analytics & metrics as a tool for making game day decisions. Rather than the notions of using league statistics & trends overall for situational football... I further agree with BP assessment that this information gather league wide are based upon the team overall game plan and favorable match ups identified through film study. The fact that certain offensive formations and Team X's counter formations reveals either a favorable or non favorable match up to exploit, not just statistical trends and percentages. Thats fine if you agree with Polian’s view on analytics. The team that just won a Super Bowl as a big underdog would strongly disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 FWIW, Marv used to make all coaches take a mini-“class” in winning football statistics from a guy named Bud Goode. They looked at things like turnovers and passing yards per play, etc... and how it affected win percentage. Bud was sort of a grandfather of football stats back in the day. Dickerson used to say it was one of the best things Marv ever did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 hours ago, Elite Poster said: The eagles probably used analytics the most out of any team in the league this year, going on 4th downs much more often than other teams, and they are champions. The game has passed this old man. Just as a counter point - they also used analytics last year - went for a huge number of 4th downs and were under 50% and lost more games than they won. Analytics may help, but it still depends upon what you do on the field. Last year they did not convert 4th down plays at the same rate as this year. If their 4th down conversions had stayed near 40% this year they would not have won - the difference was not the analytics- it was the play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PurpLegacy Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 hours ago, pimp on da' net said: The stats don't take into account the moment in time or if a perceived advantage in a game, actually goes according to plan. So to say that going for it on 4th & 2 against team X's Defense, works x% of the time and therefore increase the chances of being successful? The statistics IMO, don't take into account that these situations (short yardage) may have taken place in the current game on prior downs and the offense has not executed the plays or controlled the LOS as well against team X defense. Does these in game facts play against the overall statistics league wide and drive the coaches decision making? I would think they should... 5 Have you ever read an NFL statistics report? Statistical analysis isn't as simple as taking all 4th & 2 attempts and presenting the outcomes. Any statistician knows there are multiple variables and conditions that can affect a play. They don't have some guy using basic excel functions to get averages. You are seriously understating what an analytics department does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JinxedBill1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) Polian is a sharp guy and it was a good interview. I hate he got blasted by SJWs about Jackson but handled it well. It's his thoughts in his ability to play the pro game. One guys opinion that's it. Felt like they killed him for it. He's a hall of farmer and in his 70s, pump the breaks America. He also mentioned how the coach has a feel for his team by citing Belicheck going for it on 4th down because he knew his pass rushers were gassed. Analytics can't do that, that human element is unique to sports coaching that I feel a lot of people miss. Coaching is integral and knowing your team is paramount. Edited March 1, 2018 by JinxedBill1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: All semantics aside, he is correct. Philly is among the leaders in 4th down % and Pederson’s innovative use of on-field analytics has been credited toward the success of the team. They were good at 4th down conversions. But it's not semantics when someone ignores facts to make a point. Philly doesn't stand alone above other teams that go for it on 4th. They are in a group (that includes analytic giants Green Bay Cleveland and Miami) with 23-28 attempts all year. Anyway, 4th down conversions are a poor choice for analysis because even for a team that did it "best", it only accounted for only 5% of all of their 1st downs last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: They were good at 4th down conversions. But it's not semantics when someone ignores facts to make a point. Philly doesn't stand alone above other teams that go for it on 4th. They are in a group (that includes analytic giants Green Bay Cleveland and Miami) with 23-28 attempts all year. Anyway, 4th down conversions are a poor choice for analysis because even for a team that did it "best", it only accounted for only 5% of all of their 1st downs last season. We were talking about overall use of analytics in game management and fourth downs are just one part it. It doesn’t change the fact Philadelphia has been one of the teams that heaving use analytics both on the field and off (personnel etc). My my point is, the Bill Polians of the world who want to doubt th validity of data used to make game-time decisions is very short-sighted. The team that just won the Super Bowl would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: We were talking about overall use of analytics in game management and fourth downs are just one part it. It doesn’t change the fact Philadelphia has been one of the teams that heaving use analytics both on the field and off (personnel etc). My my point is, the Bill Polians of the world who want to doubt th validity of data used to make game-time decisions is very short-sighted. The team that just won the Super Bowl would agree I think analytics means many things. You can't argue that the team that win the SB the previous year is using analytic to a lesser degree, on and off the field than Philly did this past season. BB mastered this years ago. I think lots of teams already do this type of analysis--not in the goofy "moneyball" way that flopped in Cleveland, but with basic grunt work of studying film of opponents (situational tendencies=data) and draft prospects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: I think analytics means many things. You can't argue that the team that win the SB the previous year is using analytic to a lesser degree, on and off the field than Philly did this past season. BB mastered this years ago. I think lots of teams already do this type of analysis--not in the goofy "moneyball" way that flopped in Cleveland, but with basic grunt work of studying film of opponents (situational tendencies=data) and draft prospects. Agree. BB uses them but he isn't a slave to them. I still to this day believe that he decided not to call a TO against Seattle at the goal line when all the numbers would tell you to because his guy instinct based on all the grunt work was "my chance to win this game is right here, right now, they are going to throw it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stony Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 hours ago, JinxedBill1 said: Polian is a sharp guy and it was a good interview. I hate he got blasted by SJWs about Jackson but handled it well. It's his thoughts in his ability to play the pro game. One guys opinion that's it. Felt like they killed him for it. He's a hall of farmer and in his 70s, pump the breaks America. He also mentioned how the coach has a feel for his team by citing Belicheck going for it on 4th down because he knew his pass rushers were gassed. Analytics can't do that, that human element is unique to sports coaching that I feel a lot of people miss. Coaching is integral and knowing your team is paramount. He gets a lot of credit for drafting Peyton Manning. It might damn well be heresy in these parts, but he's a bit overrated in my eyes. His best work was arguably in Carolina, and it barely gets mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, GunnerBill said: Agree. BB uses them but he isn't a slave to them. I still to this day believe that he decided not to call a TO against Seattle at the goal line when all the numbers would tell you to because his guy instinct based on all the grunt work was "my chance to win this game is right here, right now, they are going to throw it". That's the genius part that the guy who you hire who used to consult for Citrix and Home Depot isn't going to bring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 hours ago, PurpLegacy said: Have you ever read an NFL statistics report? Statistical analysis isn't as simple as taking all 4th & 2 attempts and presenting the outcomes. Any statistician knows there are multiple variables and conditions that can affect a play. They don't have some guy using basic excel functions to get averages. You are seriously understating what an analytics department does. I totally understand the science...my example was a caption and not an expose. I condensed the example, so as NOT to bore the message. For the record, analytics and other metrics has a place in determining situational football but the actual execution on the field matters more. BP basically said the same thing and I agree with him. Some of his other comments , not so much. A coaches decision to go/ no go ultimately is based upon game day field execution and current game information and performance not some matrix that reveal some stat that summarizes the overall league trends. Its a classic case of which came first the chicken or the egg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PurpLegacy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 1:29 PM, pimp on da' net said: I totally understand the science...my example was a caption and not an expose. I condensed the example, so as NOT to bore the message. For the record, analytics and other metrics has a place in determining situational football but the actual execution on the field matters more. BP basically said the same thing and I agree with him. Some of his other comments , not so much. A coaches decision to go/ no go ultimately is based upon game day field execution and current game information and performance not some matrix that reveal some stat that summarizes the overall league trends. Its a classic case of which came first the chicken or the egg? 6 But analytics can reveal a lot more than overall league trends. You are looking at this too narrowly. Say it's the second half of the season when there is plenty of situational data on a particular team, statistical analysis can reveal the team's strength/weakness/trends in a number ways. It's more than league trends. You can learn more about a team, an offense/defense, and all the way down to a particular player. It's about a coach using all his available resources to make a good decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 10:52 AM, stony said: He gets a lot of credit for drafting Peyton Manning. It might damn well be heresy in these parts, but he's a bit overrated in my eyes. His best work was arguably in Carolina, and it barely gets mentioned. Didn’t he also build a team that went to 4 consecutive Super Bowls? His resume is more than solid gold. 3 hours ago, PurpLegacy said: But analytics can reveal a lot more than overall league trends. You are looking at this too narrowly. Say it's the second half of the season when there is plenty of situational data on a particular team, statistical analysis can reveal the team's strength/weakness/trends in a number ways. It's more than league trends. You can learn more about a team, an offense/defense, and all the way down to a particular player. It's about a coach using all his available resources to make a good decision. I suspect that all teams do what you have suggested here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreggTX Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On February 28, 2018 at 7:01 PM, pimp on da' net said: Bill Polian talks the relevance of analytics Overall, I agree with him in regards as how to use the stats as a base in decision making. The stats don't take into account the moment in time or if a perceived advantage in a game, actually goes according to plan. So to say that going for it on 4th & 2 against team X's Defense, works x% of the time and therefore increase the chances of being successful? The statistics IMO, don't take into account that these situations (short yardage) may have taken place in the current game on prior downs and the offense has not executed the plays or controlled the LOS as well against team X defense. Does these in game facts play against the overall statistics league wide and drive the coaches decision making? I would think they should... Stats should play a factor in decision making, if a perceive offensive advantage goes according to the teams overall game plan. These analytics are a tool that the Pegulas should invest in for the Bills and especially the Sabres. Like all tools, there are limitations, but I'd love for someone to develop a very sophisticated tool using game theory to help McD hone his clock mgmt skills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just popping in to cheep about those in the thread here who just have to be obnoxious about it. A Pro Football Hall of Fame GM, versus ill mannered know it all message board posters, one might say. I find it annoying that you ones need to insult Polian. So here's the biggest 4th down play of the game. Foles catch. I can't wait to hear how you know it all ill mannered oafs try to describe this as analytics. Foles: "You want Philly Philly?" Pederson: Looks him in the eye: "Yeah let's do it" Starts at 2:20 http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/videos/videos/Exclusive-Nick-Foles-Micd-Up-At-Super-Bowl-LII/ac504d7b-cf07-4b08-8689-674c7c889312 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stony Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: Didn’t he also build a team that went to 4 consecutive Super Bowls? His resume is more than solid gold. I suspect that all teams do what you have suggested here. He was a good GM, no doubt. But Bill Polian didn't draft Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, Andre Reed, Darryl Talley, Frank Reich etc. Rumor has it, Marv was the one who picked Tasker off waivers. Timing is everything, and Polian came into a crappy situation in Buffalo just as things began to look up. But I'll give him credit, his record in Buffalo makes him look like a genius compared to his time in Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Why is Bill Polian relevant still? He was one of the worst GM's in the league while with the Colts. If Bill Polian says something, do teh exact opposite of what he says. He drafted Peyton Manning and a bunch of busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PurpLegacy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: Didn’t he also build a team that went to 4 consecutive Super Bowls? His resume is more than solid gold. I suspect that all teams do what you have suggested here. I would hope so but the original post was written as if they weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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