Buffalo716 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 (edited) The Darling RS Sophomore of the Draft class, Sam Darnold, has been the talk of college football for the past year. Coaches and scouts alike love his combination of Having a great arm, athletic ability, size and smarts OVERVIEW The 6'4 220lb Darnold has been the talk of the town since last year. After taking over for Max Browne Darnold won the hearts of Trojan fans. As a redshirt Freshman Darnold posted Gaudy numbers. Boasting a 67% , as well as 3,000 yards and over 30 TDs Darnolds game will jump out immediately to you. He stands tall in the pocket with his eyes always downfield. The ball pops out of his hand and he fears no throw Possesses a good internal clock and usually gets the ball out on time throws with good touch to the mid level Can rifle the Ball into tight windows Has an uncanny ability to shake off defenders and make a play with his arm or leg Feels edge pressure and slides up accordingly... will take a hard hit to deliver a strike Goes through progressions very well for a QB his age. Throws on rythem with timing patterns Has a big enough arm to throw the deep out... let's hitches fly quick so receiver can have RAC Isolates deep ball PRE SNAP and knows when to take his shot Shows quality leadership traits Accuracy is not effected by the blitz Darnold does have an elongated release which is impossible to miss. Muscle memory may not let him effectively change it He also does not like to slide in the open field which he will have to learn in the NFL Has 20 INTs in the last 20 games Field vision and decision making can get erratic at times Can have fumbling issues Can work on deep touch and sometimes puts too much pepper on short throws will take a sack over throwing the ball away POSITIVES -Poised -Big arm -Can rifle it into tight windows -Feels Pressure -Good athlete -Escapability -Throws well on Run -Throws with timing -Good internal clock -Good pump fake -Naturally Accurate -Shows leadership qualities -Stands tall in pocket and delivers when being hit -doesn't fear mistakes NEGATIVES -Elongated release -Tendancy to use all arm instead of driving through lower body -20 INTs last 20 games -9 Fumbles last year -Decision making can become erratic -Doesn't like to slide -Needs to work on deep ball touch -rushes throws when internal clock winds down BOTTOM LINE Sam Darnold is expected to contend for the #1 pick because of his combination of Accuracy, Arm Strength, Athleticism, size and Poise He possesses high level traits for a RS Sophomore and has a relatively high floor and a higher ceiling which is why he will go top 5 GRADE 83.4 ( High end Starter ) Edited February 27, 2018 by Buffalo716 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I'm not quibbling over any of the top three qb prospects. In this evaluating period it must be remembered that the liabilities will be focused on more than the assets. What makes the top three qbs an interesting group is that they are very different types of players and personalities. If none of the top three qbs are attainable then there is an interesting sub-group in Rudolph and Jackson to consider. Again, each qb in the sub-group has a different style and personality. The bottom line is if this franchise doesn't come away with a high end qb prospect in this draft it will have failed an important mission. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: The Darling RS Sophomore of the Draft class, Sam Darnold, has been the talk of college football for the past year. Coaches and scouts alike love his combination of Having a great arm, athletic ability, size and smarts OVERVIEW The 6'4 220lb Darnold has been the talk of the town since last year. After taking over for Max Browne Darnold won the hearts of Trojan fans. As a redshirt Freshman Darnold posted Gaudy numbers. Boasting a 67% , as well as 3,000 yards and over 30 TDs Darnolds game will jump out immediately to you. He stands tall in the pocket with his eyes always downfield. The ball pops out of his hand and he fears no throw Possesses a good internal clock and usually gets the ball out on time throws with good touch to the mid level Can rifle the Ball into tight windows Has an uncanny ability to shake off defenders and make a play with his arm or leg Feels edge pressure and slides up accordingly... will take a hard hit to deliver a strike Goes through progressions very well for a QB his age. Throws on rythem with timing patterns Has a big enough arm to throw the deep out... let's hitches fly quick so receiver can have RAC Isolates deep ball PRE SNAP and knows when to take his shot Shows quality leadership traits Accuracy is not effected by the blitz Darnold does have an elongated release which is impossible to miss. Muscle memory may not let him effectively change it He also does not like to slide in the open field which he will have to learn in the NFL Has 20 INTs in the last 20 games Field vision and decision making can get erratic at times Can have fumbling issues Can work on deep touch and sometimes puts too much pepper on short throws will take a sack over throwing the ball away POSITIVES -Poised -Big arm -Can rifle it into tight windows -Feels Pressure -Good athlete -Escapability -Throws well on Run -Throws with timing -Good internal clock -Good pump fake -Naturally Accurate -Shows leadership qualities -Stands tall in pocket and delivers when being hit -doesn't fear mistakes NEGATIVES -Elongated release -Tendancy to use all arm instead of driving through lower body -20 INTs last 20 games -9 Fumbles last year -Decision making can become erratic -Doesn't like to slide -Needs to work on deep ball touch -rushes throws when internal clock winds down BOTTOM LINE Sam Darnold is expected to contend for the #1 pick because of his combination of Accuracy, Arm Strength, Athleticism, size and Poise He possesses high level traits for a RS Sophomore and has a relatively high floor and a higher ceiling which is why he will go top 5 GRADE 83.4 ( High end Starter ) My Boy # 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said: The Darling RS Sophomore of the Draft class, Sam Darnold, has been the talk of college football for the past year. Coaches and scouts alike love his combination of Having a great arm, athletic ability, size and smarts OVERVIEW POSITIVES -Poised -Big arm -Can rifle it into tight windows -Feels Pressure -Good athlete -Escapability -Throws well on Run -Throws with timing -Good internal clock -Good pump fake -Naturally Accurate -Shows leadership qualities -Stands tall in pocket and delivers when being hit -doesn't fear mistakes NEGATIVES -Elongated release -Tendancy to use all arm instead of driving through lower body -20 INTs last 20 games -9 Fumbles last year -Decision making can become erratic -Doesn't like to slide -Needs to work on deep ball touch -rushes throws when internal clock winds down BOTTOM LINE Sam Darnold is expected to contend for the #1 pick because of his combination of Accuracy, Arm Strength, Athleticism, size and Poise He possesses high level traits for a RS Sophomore and has a relatively high floor and a higher ceiling which is why he will go top 5 GRADE 83.4 ( High end Starter ) Thanks, 716. Can't wait to see your take on Rosen and on Jackson. Couple of questions - -you say 'possesses high level traits for a RS Sophomore', are you able to say anything about how his traits compare to the QB with more experience in the class ie Mayfield, Rudolph? -am I correct that all 3 play in spread offenses and it's not clear how well their play will translate to the NFL? In particular how does Darnold handle making reads and progressions? -the number of turnovers is concerning. can you say anything about where they're coming from, and how correctable they may be? -given that he's accurate with it, is the weird-a** delivery a problem for the NFL eg is it related to the fumbles (more prone to strip sacks, say) Thanks again - I know this is a butt load of work. 14 hours ago, JohnC said: I'm not quibbling over any of the top three qb prospects. In this evaluating period it must be remembered that the liabilities will be focused on more than the assets. What makes the top three qbs an interesting group is that they are very different types of players and personalities. If none of the top three qbs are attainable then there is an interesting sub-group in Rudolph and Jackson to consider. Again, each qb in the sub-group has a different style and personality. The bottom line is if this franchise doesn't come away with a high end qb prospect in this draft it will have failed an important mission. I'm not quibbling, but who are the top 3 QB prospects? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simool Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 33 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm not quibbling, but who are the top 3 QB prospects? That is an excellent question. Many scouts believe Rosen is going to be a bust, IF he can stay healthy. Others believe Darnold should have stayed in school. then there are the ones who believe Mayfields height is a liability and without a best of breed ability to compensate, he is a risky choice. Allen has got the rocket arm... and the sub 60% completion rate. I don't believe any of them are worth trading up for and hope Beane will take what he is given at 21. Jackson makes a lot of sense if they keep Tyrod. Trading 22 back for Mike White would not break my heart either. I have many issues with Rudolph sadly the biggest one is he looks like Mike Rodak's love child. Can't seem to get over that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 44 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I'm not quibbling, but who are the top 3 QB prospects? The top three are Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold. The second tier would include Rudolph and Jackson. My early prediction, subject to change of course, is that the Bills will draft Rudolph with one of their first round picks if they stay in their current drafting position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Thanks, 716. Can't wait to see your take on Rosen and on Jackson. Couple of questions - -you say 'possesses high level traits for a RS Sophomore', are you able to say anything about how his traits compare to the QB with more experience in the class ie Mayfield, Rudolph? -am I correct that all 3 play in spread offenses and it's not clear how well their play will translate to the NFL? In particular how does Darnold handle making reads and progressions? -the number of turnovers is concerning. can you say anything about where they're coming from, and how correctable they may be? -given that he's accurate with it, is the weird-a** delivery a problem for the NFL eg is it related to the fumbles (more prone to strip sacks, say) Thanks again - I know this is a butt load of work. I'm not quibbling, but who are the top 3 QB prospects? 1) High level traits- The game is super fast for young QBs... most struggle to get the play in , set the team up and execute the play. Darnold keeps his eyes downfield looking off safeties, has the ability to pump fake and set back up, His poise on the field is years beyond his age and he makes high end tough throws look routine. Baker from his JR to SR season has improved tenfold even though the stats don't really show it... He also displays high level traits like Darnold ( Poise, looking off safeties , supreme touch ) but he has improved his game dramatically to where he is now a 1st round pick Rudolph is like a steady Eddie. He doesnt really possess any high end traits... even though his deep ball is very good... he is a 3 year starter who has steadily improved yearly.. Out of those 3 , Darnold and Baker have the best makeup and most blue chip traits 2) yes , all 3 play in a spread system. Historically USC is very pro styled but they have gone more spread the last few years. It is still not a complete spread because a spread offense does not utilize a TE but USC does. He is well beyond his age and experience when it comes to making reads And progressions. He has hiccups at times , especially when his internal clock runs out (will force a pass) but he isolates WRs pre snap and can move between them post snap 3) The turnovers are definitely a concern for me but i think it's correctable. He tries playing superman sometimes and doing to much Like I also right above. He has a good internal clock and knows how long he has to throw. When that clock in his head goes off and he still has the ball he sometimes panics and makes a poor decision instead of throwing it away... I believe that's correctable 4) I personally HATE long deliveries in QBs... hated it in Tebow, Jameis Winston and Darnold It usually can be a HUGE red flag for NFL QBs... the NFL is the best of the best in the world. The best DBs in the world DBs see that long delivery coming and can break on the ball sooner. It's a game of inches and that couple of extra inches can be the difference between completion and interception LUCKILY for Darnold , he has a very strong arm and can rocket passes into tight windows His arm strength might mitigate the long delivery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: 1) High level traits- The game is super fast for young QBs... most struggle to get the play in , set the team up and execute the play. Darnold keeps his eyes downfield looking off safeties, has the ability to pump fake and set back up, His poise on the field is years beyond his age and he makes high end tough throws look routine. Baker from his JR to SR season has improved tenfold even though the stats don't really show it... He also displays high level traits like Darnold ( Poise, looking off safeties , supreme touch ) but he has improved his game dramatically to where he is now a 1st round pick Rudolph is like a steady Eddie. He doesnt really possess any high end traits... even though his deep ball is very good... he is a 3 year starter who has steadily improved yearly.. Out of those 3 , Darnold and Baker have the best makeup and most blue chip traits 4) I personally HATE long deliveries in QBs... hated it in Tebow, Jameis Winston and Darnold It usually can be a HUGE red flag for NFL QBs... the NFL is the best of the best in the world. The best DBs in the world DBs see that long delivery coming and can break on the ball sooner. It's a game of inches and that couple of extra inches can be the difference between completion and interception LUCKILY for Darnold , he has a very strong arm and can rocket passes into tight windows His arm strength might mitigate the long delivery Thanks 716. It sounds to me as if, were I the Browns sitting at #1, I take Darnold. I don't care what Allen's velocity is, he's a 'dark horse' in terms of what he's actually shown. I guess the thinking is, Darnold's delivery is not likely to be "fixable" but the turnover problems might be? Your take on Rudolph matches with mine. He's steady...his WR and OL are good and help him out more than some of the other prospects...I see him make smart, safe decisions with the ball like throwing it away or checking down instead of going for a higher degree of difficulty (NFL level) throw that is also higher risk. I guess I ought to wait for your Film Room on him, but how do you slot Rosen in there? 18 minutes ago, JohnC said: The top three are Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold. The second tier would include Rudolph and Jackson. My early prediction, subject to change of course, is that the Bills will draft Rudolph with one of their first round picks if they stay in their current drafting position. So those are YOUR top 3. To some of the pundits, maybe it's Allen, Darnold, and Rosen. Or Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield. The point is we don't know yet how NFL GMs see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Thanks 716. It sounds to me as if, were I the Browns sitting at #1, I take Darnold. I don't care what Allen's velocity is, he's a 'dark horse' in terms of what he's actually shown. I guess the thinking is, Darnold's delivery is not likely to be "fixable" but the turnover problems might be? Your take on Rudolph matches with mine. He's steady...his WR and OL are good and help him out more than some of the other prospects...I see him make smart, safe decisions with the ball like throwing it away or checking down instead of going for a higher degree of difficulty (NFL level) throw that is also higher risk. I guess I ought to wait for your Film Room on him, but how do you slot Rosen in there? I would assume that Darnolds delivery is probably somewhat set in stone... too much muscle memory since he's been a QB since he was a kid... people tweak things but rarely a full scale change happens I think outside of injury concerns Rosen is a true blue pocket passer. I've never met him but I think some people blow up this attitude problem... he is by all accounts the hardest working player at UCLA and wants everyone to follow suit Pac 12 coordinators wanted to keep Darnold in the pocket(so his clock winds down and he forces a pass) Pac 12 coordinators did EVERYTHING they could to make Josh leave the pocket Deadiest pocket QB in the draft... picture perfect lower body mechanics and upper body mechanics Ball just flies out of his hand so cleanly and effortlessly. NEVER seen him throw a wobbly ball and he has great touch to all levels Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said: I would assume that Darnolds delivery is probably somewhat set in stone... too much muscle memory since he's been a QB since he was a kid... people tweak things but rarely a full scale change happens I think outside of injury concerns Rosen is a true blue pocket passer. I've never met him but I think some people blow up this attitude problem... he is by all accounts the hardest working player at UCLA and wants everyone to follow suit Pac 12 coordinators wanted to keep Darnold in the pocket(so his clock winds down and he forces a pass) Pac 12 coordinators did EVERYTHING they could to make Josh leave the pocket Deadiest pocket QB in the draft... picture perfect lower body mechanics and upper body mechanics Ball just flies out of his hand so cleanly and effortlessly. NEVER seen him throw a wobbly ball and he has great touch to all levels I take that as "shows high level traits"? (Hapless would be happy if Rosen dropped and Bills got their hands on him - provided they can still give him an OL and WR) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Thanks 716. It sounds to me as if, were I the Browns sitting at #1, I take Darnold. I don't care what Allen's velocity is, he's a 'dark horse' in terms of what he's actually shown. I guess the thinking is, Darnold's delivery is not likely to be "fixable" but the turnover problems might be? Your take on Rudolph matches with mine. He's steady...his WR and OL are good and help him out more than some of the other prospects...I see him make smart, safe decisions with the ball like throwing it away or checking down instead of going for a higher degree of difficulty (NFL level) throw that is also higher risk. I guess I ought to wait for your Film Room on him, but how do you slot Rosen in there? So those are YOUR top 3. To some of the pundits, maybe it's Allen, Darnold, and Rosen. Or Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield. The point is we don't know yet how NFL GMs see it. My top three are locked in. I mistakenly didn't include Allen in my second tier where I would seriously consider him at our current drafting position. He is a sterling talent but I'm not giving up a number of assets for a qb that I have question marks about his accuracy. In my view Mayfield and Rosen should be able to play sooner, if not immediately, than the other prospects. Darnold needs a little more tutoring to the pro game but he should be ready soon after the other two. My second tier qbs need more preparation. At least that is how I see it. I want to stress that just because I believe that a qb is a second tier prospect I don't mean it as a pejorative term. In the end they can turn out to be sterling players. It's just that more grooming will have to take place before they are ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I take that as "shows high level traits"? (Hapless would be happy if Rosen dropped and Bills got their hands on him - provided they can still give him an OL and WR) Definitely has high level traits I would be thrilled to land Rosen or Darnold, even Baker But as of today I think Rosen is hands down the best pocket passer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said: Definitely has high level traits I would be thrilled to land Rosen or Darnold, even Baker But as of today I think Rosen is hands down the best pocket passer You do a great job on these. I think another positive for Darnold is the "clutch" factor. He seems to make big throws when his team needs him to. A great trait for a franchise QB. How is your grading system set up? For me if I had 90 as a top 5 pick and 80 as a first round pick I would have Darnold graded around 86. I think the best thing that could happen for us is having Allen go number 1 and have Denver pick up Cousins. That would cause either Rosen or Darnold to drop to around number 5 in the draft and we would be able to trade up with both number 1's and probably a number 2 from next years draft, leaving us with both of our second rounds to fill some other needs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Honestly, I am going to be unhappy if we don't find a way to get one of the big three (Mayfield and Rosen are my favorites). If we stand pat, I would consider Jackson or Allen, though both have significant risks and I doubt Allen will drop that far in any event. I think Rudolph is a third round qb and will be disappointed if we take him. I'd rather wait and take Mike White later on if you are going that route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, billspro said: You do a great job on these. I think another positive for Darnold is the "clutch" factor. He seems to make big throws when his team needs him to. A great trait for a franchise QB. How is your grading system set up? For me if I had 90 as a top 5 pick and 80 as a first round pick I would have Darnold graded around 86. I think the best thing that could happen for us is having Allen go number 1 and have Denver pick up Cousins. That would cause either Rosen or Darnold to drop to around number 5 in the draft and we would be able to trade up with both number 1's and probably a number 2 from next years draft, leaving us with both of our second rounds to fill some other needs. I take each QB and break them down into 12 categories giving each a grade 1-99 i then divide the total by 12 90+ - generational 80-89- high end 10 year starter 79-79 - high end PROSPECT who can become starter 60-69- Low end Prosepct Backup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 42 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: I take each QB and break them down into 12 categories giving each a grade 1-99 i then divide the total by 12 90+ - generational 80-89- high end 10 year starter 79-79 - high end PROSPECT who can become starter 60-69- Low end Prosepct Backup Cool, when do we get you final QB rankings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, billspro said: Cool, when do we get you final QB rankings? I'm gonna do Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen and maybe 1 other guy then I'll have a list of my 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:45 AM, Buffalo716 said: I'm gonna do Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen and maybe 1 other guy then I'll have a list of my 7 Do you think his release is going to be a big deal? I hate weird deliveries as well, but I think he still has a quick enough release and throws with enough anticipation to make it work. I doubt it will change in the NFL, very rarely is a QB able to change their throwing motion long term. I am really hoping the Browns take Allen. Then the Bills will have a chance to trade up for Darnold or Rosen. I don't think we will be able to trade into the top 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, billspro said: Do you think his release is going to be a big deal? I hate weird deliveries as well, but I think he still has a quick enough release and throws with enough anticipation to make it work. I doubt it will change in the NFL, very rarely is a QB able to change their throwing motion long term. I am really hoping the Browns take Allen. Then the Bills will have a chance to trade up for Darnold or Rosen. I don't think we will be able to trade into the top 2. I don't like it and I don't think he will improve it that much but his arm is plenty strong and he throws with good enough anticipation to mitigate it imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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