All the reasons to draft Josh Allen...

[ndirish1978]

On 2/24/2018 at 1:39 PM, JaCrispy said:

Lol...website looks like it was made in 1998!

 

It's actually worse than my old geocities page and that's saying something. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

I think we'd be lucky to get a guy of his caliber and I think his inaccuracy is more of a mirage, I know people will say this is an excuse, I myself believe the QB makes the players around him better but that Wyoming offense was god awful...Wyoming doesn't have a single offensive player that will be drafted... No OL, no TE, no RB, no WR that I saw or read about, that could very well have hindered any QB, I saw a totally different QB once he settled in at the Senior Bowl, he made many NFL throws and I know the other team isn't blitzing, I still think Allen can be a franchise QB. Although he lacked deep ball accuracy, he also threw more down field, not just little dump off passes to pad the stats although maybe they should have done more of that.

[Starr Almighty]

On 2/24/2018 at 2:11 PM, reddogblitz said:

Here are my reasons to draft him:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Out of all of your reasons. I agree most with this one one your list 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Starr Almighty

[2003Contenders]

14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It seems as though there is one every year. 

 

2017: Kizer hyped as a #1 pick by some

2016: Paxton Lynch  ("best QB in the draft" said Sporting News). 

I don't remember who it was in 2015 - anyone? 

2014: Johnny FF in 2014 of course 

2013: Geno Smith (Jags at #2 or Jets) and Ryan Nassib (Bills and Jets were supposed to fight over him at #8 and #9) split honors I think. 

2012: Brock Osweiler was a 1st rounder in 2012 according to McVay I think. 

2011: Blaine Gabbert.  Also Ryan Mallet. 

2010: the Pickle (Claussen) per Kiper #1

.

 

In 2015 it was Bryce Petty. LOL

[JohnC]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please excuse if I'm mis-remembering, but weren't you part of the "can't improve accuracy" chorus for Fitzpatrick and EJM?

What makes raw talent but inaccuracy OK now

 

 

I have often made the point on accuracy. But you are missing the point of my comment. My point with Allen was that if you are going to gamble on a player with an issue/liability then take a risk for a player who has talent. I'm not arguing that the Bills should deal off assets for him.  However, I would be willing to take him at a lower first round or later because of his impressive physical skill set. In contrast, I would have no problem making a costly deal for qbs such as Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. That's not something I would do for Allen.

 

Another example to illustrate my point is that taking EJ in the first round was not very wise. But if selected in the third round it would have been a reasonable gamble because of his physical stature. I hope that clarifies what my stance is. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

In 2015 it was Bryce Petty. LOL

 

Thanks.  I'll edit my list LOL!

 

28 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have often made the point on accuracy. But you are missing the point of my comment. My point with Allen was that if you are going to gamble on a player with an issue/liability then take a risk for a player who has talent. I'm not arguing that the Bills should deal off assets for him.  However, I would be willing to take him at a lower first round or later because of his impressive physical skill set. In contrast, I would have no problem making a costly deal for qbs such as Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield. That's not something I would do for Allen.

 

Another example to illustrate my point is that taking EJ in the first round was not very wise. But if selected in the third round it would have been a reasonable gamble because of his physical stature. I hope that clarifies what my stance is. 

 

This may seem a nit, but hear me out: to me, if you draft a player where he slots on your board (ie EJ in the 3rd, Allen in the late 2nd or 3rd) and do not expect him to perform for you but are willing to see what you develop, you aren't gambling. 

 

I think, given the hype, it's very likely that Allen goes in the first or early second, so the Bills would likely have to expend assets (a 1st round pick, maybe a small trade up).  It's also likely that due to the # holes they have, they won't draft 2 QB. 

 

It's not clear to me now what you want.  Do you want them to use their shot at a QB in this year's draft on Allen given the above? 

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks.  I'll edit my list LOL!

 

 

This may seem a nit, but hear me out: to me, if you draft a player where he slots on your board (ie EJ in the 3rd, Allen in the late 2nd or 3rd) and do not expect him to perform for you but are willing to see what you develop, you aren't gambling. 

 

I think, given the hype, it's very likely that Allen goes in the first or early second, so the Bills would likely have to expend assets (a 1st round pick, maybe a small trade up).  It's also likely that due to the # holes they have, they won't draft 2 QB. 

 

It's not clear to me now what you want.  Do you want them to use their shot at a QB in this year's draft on Allen given the above? 

My position isn't too difficult to decipher. There are things you prefer to do and then options you take if you can't execute your ideal plan. My preference is to identify the top maybe three qbs you believe will be top tier prospects and can play sooner rather than later. Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold fall in the cateogory. However, there is a very good chance that no matter what the Bills are willing to give up those players won't be available to us. You then have to have a fallback position. The next tier of qbs might be players such as Jackson, Allen and Rudolph. Would they be good value drafting with one of our first round picks at the 21 or 22 spot? I would say yes with the realization that they would require more development time than the top tier prospects. 

 

There is another possible avenue to take if the draft does not fall the way you want it to fall. You can go the free agent route and maybe come up with a qb such as McCarron, Bridgewater, Bradford, Keenum etc. My point is that you can't be locked in because no one knows how things will develop in the draft. Teams that you would not expect to take a qb with a move up, such as the Steelers, could surprise you and take the prospect that you really coveted.  

 

When I say I am willing to gamble on a prospect what I'm implicitedly saying is that I'm willing to take a calculated risk. A player such as Allen or Jackson are physically talented. That doesn't mean that they can translate those talents to the pro game. But at the right spot in the draft it would be a good risk to take. 

 

I hope this clarifies what my position is. It comes down to being open to all options but do it in a calculated manner that is leans toward being a reasonable gamble than being an act of desperation and a far fetched gamble. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by JohnC

[Nihilarian]

On 2/24/2018 at 11:20 PM, racketmaster said:

Allen had a very weak supporting cast. He played in a pro style offense and did not throw a bunch of wr screens to pad his completion percentage. His WRs were not very good and got little separation from defenders. Allen, seems to have a few poor throws each game but otherwise he is on target.  Allen has all the tools and is still young. 

Exactly.

 

There is a real reason as to why Kiper moved him to his #1 QB and Mayock moved him to his #2 and my take was his performance in the senior bowl.

 

There is more to evaluating a player than just stats. Allen was in a downfield throwing offense as in 2017 he threw 43 passes more than 20 yards. So when you throw downfield that many times you are going to get a lesser completion percentage. heck of a difference for that offense vs a spread with a ton of bubbles and screens.  

 

When looking solely at completion percentage Allen ranked 77th, Darnold 27th, Rosen 29th and Mayfield #1.

 

Edit: No question in my view that Josh Allen will be drafted in the top ten or sooner.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Nihilarian
adding thoughts

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 2/25/2018 at 10:26 AM, SouthNYfan said:

 

The only mobility he should have is being drafted before we get to him

 

I think the guy is too big a risk for a us

 

Looks pretty good in that brown uni, Cleveland... jus saying...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Exactly.

 

There is a real reason as to why Kiper moved him to his #1 QB and Mayock moved him to his #2 and my take was his performance in the senior bowl.

 

There is more to evaluating a player than just stats. Allen was in a downfield throwing offense as in 2017 he threw 43 passes more than 20 yards. So when you throw downfield that many times you are going to get a lesser completion percentage. heck of a difference for that offense vs a spread with a ton of bubbles and screens.  

 

When looking solely at completion percentage Allen ranked 77th, Darnold 27th, Rosen 29th and Mayfield #1.

 

Edit: No question in my view that Josh Allen will be drafted in the top ten or sooner.

 

Nihilarian,

People have done detailed breakdowns for most of the top QB prospects on accuracy vs. distance and field position (L, center, R).

Allen's accuracy is lowest on very short throws. 

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nihilarian,

People have done detailed breakdowns for most of the top QB prospects on accuracy vs. distance and field position (L, center, R).

Allen's accuracy is lowest on very short throws. 

 

I actually like Allen in a sense that he has an incredible ceiling based on his physical tools.

The issue with him is, as is almost always the case, those guys just don't have some "switch" that flips and they turn into the second coming of QB Jesus.

They typically kick around the league for a few years, floating from team to team, until they get their third, fourth, and fifth shots, then flame out when teams realize they can't even be a backup.

 

Allen seems to have a good head on his shoulders though, where most of these guys don't, so that's a plus for him.

 

[Nihilarian]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Please excuse if I'm mis-remembering, but weren't you part of the "can't improve accuracy" chorus for Fitzpatrick and EJM?

What makes raw talent but inaccuracy OK now?

 

I have suspected this happens and some in the know have confirmed.

 

1

Got a link to that last sentence as I find it difficult to believe that so many scouts have upgraded their opinion on a prospect because he now has an agent. 

 

BTW, aren't you the guy that wants Lamar Jackson? 

 

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Nihilarian,

People have done detailed breakdowns for most of the top QB prospects on accuracy vs. distance and field position (L, center, R).

Allen's accuracy is lowest on very short throws. 

 

Have a link for this because from everything I've read Josh Allen played in a pro-style offense which gives him fewer easy throws.

 

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 players Josh Allen is listed as the 14th best player in this year's draft.   "While he has room to improve on his overall ball placement, there were numerous dropped balls by his receivers in every game I studied. "

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft

 

On another note, some of the QB's since 2000 to complete their college career with less than a 58% completion percentage were Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford as they improved that percentage once in the pros. 

 

There is a real reason as to why almost every draft site I've read as Allen as a top ten draft pick and most have him going in the top five.