Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 (edited) We've had the unrealistic expectations for draftee QB thread. Some have made the statement that our fans won't accept 2 years for a QB to start. I thought it might be useful to look at how some of today's best QB performed their first years in the league. There are two parameters - when did the QB start? and when did the QB start to play well? "Play well" is kind of a nebulous target, but I look for >60% completions and avg <1 INT per game. Bottom line up front: by far the most likely result of a draftee QB who starts immediately is that it will take at least a year to play well (63%). 38% took more than 1 year. 38% played well immediately. Of those who sat for 1 or more year, 60% played well immediately, and 40% took one or more years. All those who played well immediately were sitting behind established starters. Overall, 38% required 2 or more years between starting and playing well. So if you want the Bills to draft a QB, you might want to stock up on patience (or Maalox) QB - years to start - (years to play well) Matt Ryan- 0 - (0) Ben Roethlisberger -0- (0) Russ Wilson -0-(0) Andy Dalton -0-(0) Dak Prescott -0-(0) Marcus Mariota -0-0 Derek Carr 0 -(1) Joe Flacco -0-(1) Jared Goff 0 -(1) Carson Wentz -0-(1) Jameis Winston -0- (2) Cam Newton -0-(3) Matt Stafford -0- (3 - though this is giving him a pass on the INTs due to high TD) Blake Bortles -0- (4) Alex Smith -0- (4 to 6) Eli Manning -0- (5) Tom Brady -1- (1) Drew Brees -1- (3) Aaron Rodgers -3- (3) Phil Rivers -3- (3) Kirk Cousins -3- (4) Of 21 QB now playing as starters, we see they fall into 3 groups. 5/21 started immediately and played well out of the gate 10/21 started immediately and took 1 or more years to find their feet. Of those, 4/10 took 1 year 6/10 took 2 or more years 5/21 sat for at least 1 year 3/5 played well immediately once they started 2/5 took 1 or more years once they started playing QB not included for insufficient data or not established as starters: Watson, Garappolo,Trubisky, Kiser, Keenum, Brissett, Foles, Taylor, McCown, Siemian Luck -0-(1) Bradford and Bridgewater not included due to uncertain injury status. Edited February 24, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 (edited) The expectations completely depend on the player. Watson is a great example. He lit the league on fire but had played a ton of football at an incredibly high level. He was way more pro ready than Mahomes or Trubisky. That doesn’t mean that he will have the best career (he certainly might). My expectations for Rosen and Mayfield are that they should be the best in year 1. They are the most ready IMO. I’ve seen the argument that Lamar Jackson’s skill set could make him a dynamic playmaker at the start. Most would agree that Josh Allen needs a redshirt year. The point is that the player dictates the expectations not former draft picks. Everyone is at a different point of their development when they enter the league. Edited February 24, 2018 by Kirby Jackson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 The peanut gallery thinks if you trade up for a QB you better go right to the super bowl. As you pointed out, it takes at least a year or two until they are solid starters. So anyone that thinks we first build up the team and THEN get a QB is an idiot. By the time the QB is feeling confident, the rest of the team is moving on in free agency. You get the QB and then build around them. It's common sense. Look at the Rams. Goff sat then struggled and in the meantime they built up the WR core around him and now he's setting the league on fire. Get the QB, let them go through their growing pains, continue to improve your roster, be a contender for many years to come 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 To work hard, get better everyday day and come to work with a winning attitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Do people really think a rook is going to come in and start and light them up right away? I fully expect it's going to take a year or two to find their rhythm. You should know after the first year what you got, or at least whether it's trending up or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Green Lightning said: Do people really think a rook is going to come in and start and light them up right away? I fully expect it's going to take a year or two to find their rhythm. You should know after the first year what you got, or at least whether it's trending up or down. The point is, some do, some don't. People who are all "fans won't accept 2 years of poor play from a high drafted QB" or "fans won't accept drafting a QB to let him sit for 2 years" need to tell those fans to take a chill pill Jill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 12 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: The expectations completely depend on the player. Watson is a great example. He lit the league on fire but had played a ton of football at an incredibly high level. He was way more pro ready than Mahomes or Trubisky. That doesn’t mean that he will have the best career (he certainly might). My expectations for Rosen and Mayfield are that they should be the best in year 1. They are the most ready IMO. I’ve seen the argument that Lamar Jackson’s skill set could make him a dynamic playmaker at the start. Most would agree that Josh Allen needs a redshirt year. The point is that the player dictates the expectations not former draft picks. Everyone is at a different point of their development when they enter the league. Well said. All depends on said players specs. I'd imagine each has their own specific plan as to how they are handled and what they are deemed capable of barring any surprises. I know people hold out hope that player xx could turn out to be the next steal of the decade qb wise but if they don't get a guy early and take a '2nd tier' guy who doesn't show a propensity to rise to the top out of camp HOPEFULLY patience is exercised by both them and the coaches as to not ruin him. I have confidence the latter will happen though, which is guess is really all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 Can we wait to actually see which (if any) QB we draft this year before starting to argue over whether or not his progress is sufficient? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 The list I’ve always wanted to see is all 32 starting QBs and in which round they were drafted, especially with so much talk this draft season circling around the Bills Plans. I know I could do it, but does anyone have the list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALF Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 As long as the Bills draft a QB better then or equal to Mahomes and Watson . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said: The list I’ve always wanted to see is all 32 starting QBs and in which round they were drafted, especially with so much talk this draft season circling around the Bills Plans. I know I could do it, but does anyone have the list? This list is based on the guy that each team intended to start the majority of their games last year. Obviously things change so I figured this was the best way to do it: 1st round - Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina, Philly, Giants, Cardinals, Rams, GB, Vikings, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Texans, Jags, Titans 2nd Round - Bengals, 49ers, Raiders, Saints, Browns 3rd Round - Seattle, Jets 4th Round - Washington, Dallas 6th Round - Bills, Patriots 7th Round - Broncos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xRUSHx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 (edited) Expectations should be that the rook will have his ups and downs but the ups out weight the downs. Also IMO my expectation is that he will out play Tyrod right out the gate, Tyrod is a train wreck with low yardage games and 3 points. Watson showed how easily that is possible his first season. Expectation should be we will get a QB that teams will learn to be afraid of, because if they force him to be a QB he will be a QB unlike Tyrod where teams force him to be a QB and he sits on the bench with a towel on his head. Expectation should be a rooks first season is a step back but his second season is two steps forward on a normal team but on the Bills we should get a vast improvement over Rexs choice at QB IMO right out of the gate. My expectations are we will address and make the change at QB this season and if that does not happen my expectation is this staff will be fired by 2020. Let the rook play and learn as he goes year 1. It would be nice if we had the luxury of a franchise QB on this team for him to sit/learn and be mentored to, sadly all we have is a Tyrod and that is not one to have a rook learn behind considering Tyrod needs his own short bus scheme and is not one to help any rook that wants to take his job (see Peterman). With Tyrod as the mentor we would be changing the OC again by years end and the rook would be another season behind the gun IMO. I would rather have the rook learn as he goes year , one step back year 1, two steps forward year2. Having a high drafted QB sit and learn is not a luxury for this team so IMO they have no choice but to use him day one, besides money saving is something this team should be thinking this season, clean it up to spend correctly in 2019. Edited February 25, 2018 by xRUSHx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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