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Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Marv Levy In The Draft?


BuffaloRush

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22 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

The Jauron years were the most frustrating years of the drought. It seemed like they were actively trying to be awful. 


Yes. The following was a real low point for me as a fan.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3665128

 

      Jauron reportedly agrees to three-year extension with Bills

Oct 26, 2008
  • ESPN.com news services

The Buffalo Bills' fast start reportedly has earned coach Dick Jauron a three-year contract extension.

The NFL Network reported Sunday that Jauron and the Bills have agreed to a three-year extension that will keep the coach in Buffalo through the 2011 season.


Jauron, who entered this season in the final year of his initial contract with the team, has the Bills tied atop the AFC East with a 5-2 record after Sunday's 25-16 loss to the Miami Dolphins.

 

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We could've had Ngata instead of Whiffner.  That says it all right there.  It wasn't like Haloti was some surprise player; he was dominant at Oregon.  When it was our turn to draft, I thought they would get him for sure.  When they announced we pick Donte, I was like "WTF?  Who the hell is that?"  :bag:

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3 hours ago, Rico said:

Everything about the Marv regime was a disaster. Even worse than his drafts, the mere fact that Ralph hired him as GM turned the Bills into a league-wide laughing stock. 

I think we were one before that.

 

:huh:

 

 

 

Edited by Fadingpain
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Didn't Jauron have something in his contract that meant he had to agree to the top picks, i.e the 1st rounders, and maybe 2nd rounders too.

 

I'm pretty certain Marv loved him some Kyle Williams, as it has been reported, and I think confirmed, that Modrak persuaded him to wait an extra round before taking him - Marv was all set to pick him in the 4th round.

 

Tbh, whoever talked about rating some of these picks in relation to starting for the Bills, is right, that was a time when the team operated within what could be largely described as a talent vacuum. Although in retrospect, it seems that some of the draft classes around that time were also pretty devoid of talent, by comparison to recent years.

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9 hours ago, Billy Zabka said:

Taking Whitner at 8 and trading back into first round for bust McCargo  who was projected as a 3rd rounder was inexcusable.  Also traded up for Poz.  Kyle Williams saves the Levy Era from being a total joke...not that Marv was really running the show anyway.

 

....when we could have had Ngata and Mangold makes it even MORE painful.........give some credit to Modrak.............

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I’ve said it before but Levy pretty much had nothing to do with the GM job. He literally SLEPT through the big pre-draft scouting meeting. The scouts come in from all over the country and the football operations department discuss and debate hundreds of prospects. He slept in his chair for hours. When he woke up he started doing jumping jacks and toe touches. As dozens of prospects were added to the board by the Bills their GM was asleep. You can credit or blame Levy for particular picks but it’s misguided. 

 

With that being said those drafts were weird. The Bills selected 4 Pro Bowlers, a pretty good OL, an undersized LB and a zillion scrubs. 

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7 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

So not Wendling, who (If I remember correctly, and I could be wrong) was our best STer for quite some time and played in all but two games for a 7 year career (again, as a special teamer). Ko Simpson and Keith Ellison both started more games in the NFL then Brad Butler did (I did always think Butler was solid though).  

 

Anyways- I'm not trying to stomp on your point. I do agree that Levy was not great at drafting. I haven't seen a GM in my fandom years (since '03) that's been a good drafter (I'm hoping Beane breaks that trend) so I definitely see what you're saying. However, I find it hard to say that Whitner is a hit, and those three guys i referenced above weren't given the difference between a top 10 pick and a mid to late rounder. 

 

So there's that. ;)

 

 

 

Again - it’s all situational.  The fact a player starts does not mean they are good.  Especially true with the Bills teams of this era.  There were a number of players who probably couldn’t start for most NFL teams.  Ellison and Simpson were prime examples.  And there’s no way in hell I’m giving John Wendling a hit.  He did not have the big impact on ST’s as you stated.  I stand by my list.  

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I just looked at both draft histories (2006 / 2007) ... what a wasteland .... there were no QB's (net of maybe Cutler) worth a pick ... so granted Marv didn't do great .. but just look at the busts in those first few rounds ... might be around the same percentage league wide.

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4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I've often thought Marv was terrible, you've put numbers with it that tend to agree, but what's the average for all other GM's to compare against before I label him bad.

 

We’ll see...in the coming weeks I’ll analyze some of the other Bills GM’s of the past

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11 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Didn’t Brad Butler retire to go into politics?

 

And I’d hardly call him a hit.

 

I’d say he hit on Kyle, Lynch and Poz. Whitner was a whiff. He was a solid player but taking him so high was an egregious error. If he took him at 24 or something, sure...

 

Marv was an abysmal GM.

He also gave a monster contract to Derrick Dockery and grabbed Robert Royal and Peerless Price in FA...three major blunders

Edited by matter2003
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11 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.  While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated.  But let's start with our boy Marv Levy.  He served as Bills GM from 2006-2008 running 2 drafts with, what was rumored to be significant input from Dick Jauron and Tom Modrak.    Let's see how Marv did:

 

Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2006 1 Donte Whitner 8 DB 2016 0 3 9 50 157                       11 3.0 Ohio St.
2006 1 John McCargo 26 DT 2011 0 0 0 3 44                         2.5 North Carolina St.
2006 3 Ashton Youboty 70 DB 2011 0 0 0 8 49                       2 2.0 Ohio St.
2006 4 Ko Simpson 105 DB 2009 0 0 2 13 41                       3 1.0 South Carolina
2006 5 Kyle Williams 134 DT 2017 0 5 10 72 167           1 1 1       1 43.5 LSU
2006 5 Brad Butler 143 T 2009 0 0 2 13 33                 0 0 0     Virginia
2006 6 Keith Ellison 178 LB 2010 0 0 3 19 58           1 6 0       2 2.0 Oregon St.
2006 7 Terrance Pennington 216 T 2007 0 0 1 4 16                           New Mexico
2006 7 Aaron Merz 248 G 2006 0 0 0 1 7                           California

 

2006 Draft = 3 Hits/6 Misses = Success Rate of 33%

I'm giving Whitner a marginal hit.  While he was a starter for the Bills, Top 10 picks needs to be All-Pros.  He was solid with the Bills but I'm not sure if he played to his draft position.  Kyle is explanatory. I'm also giving Marv a "hit" for Brad Butler - a 5th round pick who started admirably for almost 3 seasons before retiring due to injuries.  

 

ear Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2007 1 Marshawn Lynch 12 RB 2017 1 5 8 72 142 1 3 8 1 0 2351 10003 81 272 2130 9     California
2007 2 Paul Posluszny 34 LB 2017 0 1 9 58 145                       15 16.0 Penn St.
2007 3 Trent Edwards 92 QB 2012 0 0 2 17 38 563 929 6033 26 30 78 330 3 0 0 0     Stanford
2007 4 Dwayne Wright 111 RB 2007 0 0 0 1 15           29 94 0 3 17 0     Fresno St.
2007 6 John Wendling 184 DB 2013 0 0 0 7 110                       1   Wyoming
2007 7 Derek Schouman 222 TE 2010 0 0 1 2 25                 27 275 1     Boise St.
2007 7 C.J. Ah You 239 DE 2011 0 0 0 4 33                         6.0 Oklahoma

 

2007 Draft = 2 Hits/5 Misses = Success Rate of 29%

Again I am giving Marshawn a marginal hit based on what he did in Buffalo his first two seasons.  Of course, that one is close.  Ditto for Poz, he never turned into an All-Pro but was definitely a stellar selection in the 2nd round.  The rest was just pure crap for this crew.

 

 

Marv Levy's overall success rate in the draft = 31%

 

Synopsis:  Marv's crown jewel was drafting Kyle Williams in the 5th round.  Lynch developed into a well...beast in Seattle running with a well-schemed offense, but he wasn't as productive with the Bills.  Aside from that, the success rate for Marv leaves a lot to be desired.

Marv was a terrible hire for GM.  I can't see there being much debate about that.

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11 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Kind of hard to judge this because "marginal" is a pretty abstract term. Are you including term lengths? For instance, Keith Ellison was a solid linebacker for us for like 2 years. Ko Simpson played relatively well for a while next to Whitner. For a fourth rounder he seemed pretty good. Edwards was a decent starter for a while. Wendling was a great special teamer which seems to be a hit for a 6th rounder. 

 

I once heard Ron Wolf talk about his draft philosophy for building a winning team.

 

He said we wanted two Pro Bowl quality players every draft.  He didn't care what rounds he got them.  Maybe the Round 1 and 2 picks were busts but the Round 4 and 5 picks were perennial PBers.  That's a great draft.

 

Getting one Pro Bowler was okay - but less than what was hoped for.

 

Getting starters didn't matter a lot to him.  Every team has starters.  Super Bowl teams have Pro Bowlers.

 

Using this standard as a guideline, Marv wasn't successful as a GM.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Again - it’s all situational.  The fact a player starts does not mean they are good.  Especially true with the Bills teams of this era.  There were a number of players who probably couldn’t start for most NFL teams.  Ellison and Simpson were prime examples.  And there’s no way in hell I’m giving John Wendling a hit.  He did not have the big impact on ST’s as you stated.  I stand by my list.  

 

Well, that's definitely your right to do so. 

I think your list is a little inconsistent, but that's just my opinion. 

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3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve said it before but Levy pretty much had nothing to do with the GM job. He literally SLEPT through the big pre-draft scouting meeting. The scouts come in from all over the country and the football operations department discuss and debate hundreds of prospects. He slept in his chair for hours. When he woke up he started doing jumping jacks and toe touches. As dozens of prospects were added to the board by the Bills their GM was asleep. You can credit or blame Levy for particular picks but it’s misguided. 

 

With that being said those drafts were weird. The Bills selected 4 Pro Bowlers, a pretty good OL, an undersized LB and a zillion scrubs. 

 

This sounds about right! Levy even stated that he left it to the Scouts and Jauron to have the final call on picks.

 

I know why the team picked Whitner and that was to replace SS Lawyer Milloy who Levy thought was all about the money.

 

However. McCargo was a big mystery as to why they traded back up into the first round for that bum.  I think this speaks as to just how bad the Buffalo Bills scouting dept was back then. All I know is I hated Asst GM Tom Modrak for his draft selections. I get the impression that picks like McCargo was his idea. Modrak a former Steelers scout like Donahoe, Whaley who also worked for them. With such weird draft choices, I used to wonder if people in the Bills scouting dept were being paid by Robert Kraft too. 

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12 hours ago, Logic said:

To think that we could have had a Haloti Ngata/Kyle Williams DT duo, but got bust McCargo and Whiffner instead. Yuck.

I remember a mock draft at the time saying that Ngata was an obvious pick for the Bills. I didn't know anything about him before the draft but once I looked him up it made perfect sense they would pick him. Then they mysteriously didn't pick him. Another boneheaded move by the Bills. Most of the drafts of the past 20 years, its like the Bills management and the scouts did zero homework on many of these picks and were just guessing.

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