GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 (edited) Here it is Mock Draft 2018 version 1.0. Before people start debating about the trade values…. They are all broadly in line with the Jimmy Johnson chart but amended a little bit to take into account the Rich Hill chart which has re-assigned pick values by tracking actual deals that have happened in recent years (and which at least a few teams have hinted that they are now using). 1. Browns - Sam Darnold, QB, USC After trading out of spots where Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson were taken in the last two drafts the Browns have gone back to a traditional football savvy GM in John Dorsey. He knows you need a QB to win in the NFL and Sam Darnold seems to fit his profile of what one looks like. 2. Giants - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State I firmly believe the Giants are riding with Eli at QB for now. They are a trade back candidate at this spot but I feel like they don't want to move down as far as the likely trade up candidates would require because they have a desperate need at RB and Barkley is a potential elite talent. 3. TRADE! Bills - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (Bills get #3 & 6th Rounder; Colts get #21, #22, #53, 2018 4th rounder and 2019 2nd rounder) There are two teams in this draft publicly making noises about being aggressive at QB. The first of those, the Buffalo Bills, swing and swing big to take a shot on Josh Rosen. They are clearly ready to move on from Tyrod Taylor and hope to finally end 22 years of searching for the heir to Jim Kelly. 4. TRADE! Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming (Cardinals get #4; Browns get #15, #47 and 2019 1st rounder) The second is the Cardinals. As we stand they are in an even worse spot than the Bills having nothing of an NFL standard at the position. I suspect they target either Nick Foles or AJ McCarron as a bridge. Josh Allen is a big armed, downfield passer and even though Bruce Arians has gone that strikes me as the Arizona template for a franchise QB. 5. Broncos - Quenten Nelson, G, Notre Dame Denver doesn't take a QB here because I expect them to win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. Their offensive line has been a question mark for a number of years now and Nelson is considered by many to be the safest prospect in this draft. 6. Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma The Jets sit tight and hold their nerve at #6 and still end up with a high end Quarterback prospect. Mayfield's brash attitude seems tailor made for New York and after years of taking shots on 2nd and 3rd rate prospects (Geno, Hackenburg and Petty) this could be the long term answer to the Jets' Quarterback conundrum. 7. Buccaneers - Bradley Chubb, CB, NC State I have Bradley Chubb as the #1 player on my board and if he drops to #7 because of a run on Quarterbacks the Buccaneers would be jumping for joy and sprinting to the podium. 8. Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama Chicago has to be pretty close to admitting that Kevin White is a bust. So three years after that mistake and with an improved defense and hopefully their franchise QB in place they go back to the receiver well for Ridley. A smooth route runner who can get separation he is a nice fit for Matt Nagy's offense. 9. 49ers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB, Alabama Is Fitzpatrick a corner or a safety? The 49ers probably don't mind. They need playmakers in their defensive backfield and Fitzpatrick is the best player available at this stage. 10. Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia The Raiders need to draft defense, defense, and some more defense. Navarro Bowman was a short term solution at linebacker in 2017 but he is an impending FA. Roquan Smith is a top 10 player by my board and he has the speed that John Gruden loves. 11. Dolphins - Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech Another team with an obvious linebacker deficiency is the Miami Dolphins. They were fielding the professional corpse of Lawrence Timmons' career as a starter last season and Kiko Alonso's performance slumped after a decent 2016. Tremaine Edmunds is a name making a lot of noise in scouting circles early in this draft season and I can imagine the Dolphins being very happy to select him at this spot. 12. Bengals - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma The Bengals offensive line is by far the weakest spot on this team. Their tackle play was so bad last year they ended up moving star guard Clint Boling out there to protect Dalton's blindside. There are three first round graded tackle in this class by my board but Orlando Brown Snr had so much success in the AFC North that it just feels right that his son ends up there too! 13. Redskins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington The Redskins snagged dramatic faller Jonathan Allen in last year's draft to solidify the defensive tackle position but concerns about his ability to stay healthy seem well founded and I still believe a more disruptive penetrating tackle like Vea would make that defense more productive. 14. Packers - Marcus Davenport, OLB, UTSA I feel like every year I mock a pass rusher to the Packers in the first round and they pick a defensive back instead. Davenport is raw but has a sky high ceiling and is a perfect fit for new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine's 3-4 defense. 15. Browns - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State The Browns have needs everywhere and could go in almost any direction at this spot. I have some concerns about Ward's ability to play outside in the NFL (size and ability to track the deep ball) but he is fast and smooth and Cleveland does have a need in the secondary. 16. Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU The Ravens defense was pretty good last year, so they have to focus on upgrading the offense. Joe Flacco's best years were with a burner receiver on one side and a contested catch guy opposite him. Grabbing 6ft4 Courtland Sutton and retaining pending FA Mike Wallace would recreate that combination. 17. Chargers - Derwin James, S, Florida State On paper the Chargers don't have many holes but their top safety last year was dust settle FA signing Tre Boston but he is a pending FA again and will want a significant salary bump so the Chargers could go to the draft for a replacement and Florida State's Derwin James is among the best players left at this point. 18. Seahawks - Isiah Wynn, OG, Georgia I feel like I say the Seahawks should go offensive line every single draft and they normally trade back out of the first round altogether! They could go OT here but having traded for Duane Brown in season guard is probably a bigger need. Wynn played tackle in college and I am not totally convinced he can't do that in the NFL, but he has the versatility to play guard too. 19. Cowboys - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan Dallas could go defensive back here but I think they need some interior pass rush whether DeMarcus Lawrence re-signs on the edge or not. Hurst was consistently getting into the backfield for the Wolverines and would upgrade the Cowboys' defensive line. 20. Lions - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama The Lions have a need at linebacker even though Jarrad Davis had a good rookie year in 2017. Tahir Whitehead is a FA and looks unlikely to be back. Matt Patricia has coordinated a New England defense featuring Brandon Spikes and then Dont'a Hightower at MLB because of the scheme familiarity Crimson Tide guys have from Saban to Belichick. For that reason another Alabama linebacker to make the calls in Patricia’s Detroit defense makes a lot of sense to me. 21. Colts - Mike Hughes, CB, UCF The Colts were willing to give up #3 for two first round picks precisely because they need a lot of holes filling. One of those is unquestionably at corner. I have Mike Hughes higher on my board than Joshua Jackson and he would be an immediate starter. 22. Colts - Connor Williams, OT, Texas Connor Williams' final year at Texas was not as impressive as his sophomore year in 2016 but if the Colts can get Andrew Luck back on the field they need to protect him. Williams could start at right tackle and eventually slide across to replace the overpaid Anthony Castonzo on the left side. 23. Rams - Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa I get the feeling that teams might not be as high on Jackson as the talking heads are. I think he is a 2nd round talent but the Rams have a major need at corner - Tremaine Johnson is a FA and is not worth the money he wants to stay. 24. Panthers - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame During Marty Hurney's first spell as Panthers GM he had a couple of misses trying to find a franchise left tackle. The Panthers cannot keep trying to recycle other people's trash at the position though, they need to find their long term answer and McGlinchey is a fit. 25. Titans - Harold Landry, DE, Boston College Mike Vrabel never coached directly for Belichick but he played for him and coached for Bill O'Brien. Harold Landry is such a Belichick like pick. Smart, high motor, from a north eastern school. He happens to fill a need for the Titans too. 26. Falcons - Da'ron Payne, DT, Alabama Dontarie Poe filled a need as a FA signing for the Falcons in 2017, but he is an impending FA and they could still do with finding a long term answer as a dominating, run stuffing presence in the middle of that defensive line. If Payne is still on the board I think Atlanta would find him hard to pass up. 27. Saints - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State A fast, shifty receiver who isn't the most polished route runner but just seems to find ways to get separation down the field? Sounds like a fit for the New Orleans Saints. Washington will replace what the Saints traded away when sending Brandin Cooks to New England last offseason. 28. Steelers - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State Pittsburgh has a very good roster almost top to bottom but a Quarterback who keeps flirting with retirement. Mason Rudolph is not universally loved but I am pretty high on him and I think he could slide right in to that Pittsburgh scheme which runs plenty of spread concepts after a year or two sitting behind Big Ben. 29. Jaguars - Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP The Jags could go Quarterback here but we know Coughlin and Marrone want to run it every down because they told us they do. They got their bruiser at running back last year and now improving the push the offensive line gets to open holes for him should be the priority. Hernandez is a nasty, aggressive run blocker who is a perfect fit for Marrone's power scheme. 30. Vikings - Arden Key, DE, LSU When I ask myself "which defensive minded Head Coach in the NFL takes a chance on talented but troubled?" I answer - Mike Zimmer. Arden Key is probably the most talented prospect left on the board and Minnesota is always looking to add to its defensive strength. 31. Patriots - Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama After watching Jacksonville and then Philadelphia tear up his defense in the AFC Championship Game and Superbowl I can imagine Bill Belichick believing he needs a tough tone setter. Enter Ronnie Harrison, who puts the hard into "hard hitting" at the safety position. 32. TRADE! Chargers - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (Chargers get #32; Eagles get #48 and #82) And the first round ends in intrigue as the Los Angeles Chargers jump up to take a shot on Louisville's Lamar Jackson. Philadelphia feels good enough about its World Champion roster to slide back and the Chargers finally have a succession plan to Philip Rivers. Okay guys.... flame away. Edited April 26, 2018 by GunnerBill 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddo Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 How much of the trade up to #3, is coloured by what you would like to see done? Tbh, I think #3 is about as high up as we can get, without giving up way too much, so from that standpoint, I can see the possibility. I just think that the Giants would be mad to not take a QB, when they won't get such a high pick, combined with a good QB class, in probably another 10 years or so. And if they do, then unless they take Allen to sit, the whole pack of cards comes tumbling down. I've also seen where the Colts are desperate for an edge rusher, and could well take Chubb @ #3, although there might be alternatives they would be happy with around the early 20s. Good effort though, and nice analysis to back it up. Food for thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Great work! The only one I don’t see happening is Chargers. The GM is a steadfast bill Polian disciple and bill has repeatedly denounced Lamar as an nfl qb prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Good effort and I like most of it. I don’t see San Diego trading into the last spot. If the first 10 picks play out like you say, then there isn’t a need for a early run in the second round. 2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Great work! The only one I don’t see happening is Chargers. The GM is a steadfast bill Polian disciple and bill has repeatedly denounced Lamar as an nfl qb prospect. Ha. Posted at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FearLess Price Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Great work here. Im jus good we drafted a QB high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NastyNateSoldiers Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 I just can't understand why we would trade up for a QB that already has a concussion history plus a nerve issue in his elbow and problems with his shoulder . Rosen is damaged goods . HOW DO PEOPLE NOT SEE THIS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said: I just can't understand why we would trade up for a QB that already has a concussion history plus a nerve issue in his elbow and problems with his shoulder . Rosen is damaged goods . HOW DO PEOPLE NOT SEE THIS? If all of this is flagged during his Medicals at the combine, he will be there when we pick at 21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 hour ago, Buddo said: How much of the trade up to #3, is coloured by what you would like to see done? I am absolutely convinced the Bills are trading up. How high and for who I am speculating, obviously, but based on what Beane himself said at the Senior Bowl and the multiple reports of Bills interest in getting up I think they are legitimately interested. As for the Giants at #2 - I'm with you. I'd pick a Quarterback if I were them. But I don't think they are going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 52 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Great work! The only one I don’t see happening is Chargers. The GM is a steadfast bill Polian disciple and bill has repeatedly denounced Lamar as an nfl qb prospect. It's a good point on Lamar Yolo. I was more thinking Lynn has had success with Tyrod and might see a way he can build an offense around the strengths of a mobile guy like Jackson while they bring him along as a passer if needs be. I hadn't considered the Polian lineage though.... he certainly isn't a Polian style QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 If we don't have to give up our 1st next year, I'm 100% behind this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 As you know Gunner, yours is one of the mocks to which I pay the most attention. Great stuff as always! A few of my own opinions: - I share your sentiment that Chubb is the #1 player on my board; him dropping outside of the top-5 would be astonishing IMO - I think Orlando Brown is going to drop. He's so physically imposing, and he got away with being an average athlete in college, but I think low-built speed rushers will eat him alive in the NFL, and ultimately I think that drops him a bit. - I also have Cortland Sutton falling out of round 1. Good player; maybe even a great player. I think his relative lack of athleticism in comparison to guys like Ridley, Cain, and Washington will drop him to day 2. - You pulled a "bandit" and crossed up a name--the Texas OT is Connor Williams (Connor McDermott is on Buffalo's practice squad)...as I said last week--too many years of idiosyncratic draft prep can do that to a guy 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: It's a good point on Lamar Yolo. I was more thinking Lynn has had success with Tyrod and might see a way he can build an offense around the strengths of a mobile guy like Jackson while they bring him along as a passer if needs be. I hadn't considered the Polian lineage though.... he certainly isn't a Polian style QB. Just FYI--Lamar to LAC at 17 was going to be my McCaffrey-to-Carolina pick for this year, but you went ahead and hosed that up for me...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: - You pulled a "bandit" and crossed up a name--the Texas OT is Connor Williams (Connor McDermott is on Buffalo's practice squad)...as I said last week--too many years of idiosyncratic draft prep can do that to a guy Darn it. Same difference. Connor somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Nice job! I have been thinking Rudolph to Steeler myself, makes perfect sense. Don't think Chubb falls that far. Love the Bills move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Great work as always Gunner. A couple of thoughts: - The Redskins are going to try to get a weapon for Alex Smith. They are going to try to show everyone that they are the smartest guy’s in the room. Maybe Ridley, Washington, Sutton or Guice. - I think that the Steelers end up with Josh Allen (they love him). - I believe that the Saints will go front 7 in the 1st since they don’t have a 2nd. Maybe Arden Key if they are over their hatred of LSU guys. It could be Sam Hubbard with their love of OSU guys. - The trades all make sense and in general you did a great job!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, horned dogs said: Don't think Chubb falls that far. It would be shocking to me too. But I'm still in shock that Jalen Ramsey who was the clear #1 on my board in 2016 made it to the Jags at #5 and that Lattimore who was #2 on my board last year made it to #11. 20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: - I think Orlando Brown is going to drop. He's so physically imposing, and he got away with being an average athlete in college, but I think low-built speed rushers will eat him alive in the NFL, and ultimately I think that drops him a bit. I'm not as down on Brown as you. He is ultimately my #3 ranked tackle I dunno something about the AFC North history with his dad just made me feel him there rather than Williams (Williams, not McDermott, definitely not McDermott.....) or McGlinchey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WideRightRevenge Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Gunner .. great work .. would like your insight as to Rosen ... not saying he's your pick persay .. but since you have him going #3 to the Bills .. why do you think he stands out vs the other QB's available and worth the trade up vs. sitting at where we are. Better said .. why is he the next Jim Kelly in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Rosen question for anyone, who is the last prospect that threw the ball as well as him? Stafford maybe? I think that he is a more natural thrower than Luck. Rosen has some questions with health and his quirky (outspoken) personality but as a passer he is elite IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, WideRightRevenge said: Gunner .. great work .. would like your insight as to Rosen ... not saying he's your pick persay .. but since you have him going #3 to the Bills .. why do you think he stands out vs the other QB's available and worth the trade up vs. sitting at where we are. Better said .. why is he the next Jim Kelly in your opinion? Ha. Now that the mock draft is out of the way I need to crack on with my QB evaluations. I am pretty much done on Rosen and he is my QB #1. He makes the most NFL throws and throws with really good anticipation into tight windows. There is much more detail to come but in summary it is that. Is he the next Jim Kelly? Who knows.... but if the Bills pick him he will be the most obviously capable QB the Bills have picked since. This is not taking a Losman who was "toolsy" or a Manuel "a big piece of clay" - this is a legitimate franchise QB prospect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Rosen question for anyone, who is the last prospect that threw the ball as well as him? Stafford maybe? I think that he is a more natural thrower than Luck. Rosen has some questions with health and his quirky (outspoken) personality but as a passer he is elite IMO. Luck’s ball placement, tight window throws and 4 years starting in a pro-style offense were huge. Plus size, intelligence, character, athleticism. But as far as looking like he came out if the womb able to make every single nfl throw effortlessly, Rosen is as good as it gets 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Just now, YoloinOhio said: Luck’s ball placement, tight window throws and 4 years starting in a pro-style offense were huge. Plus size, intelligence, character, athleticism. But as far as looking like he came out if the womb able to make every single nfl throw effortlessly, Rosen is as good as it gets Yeah, I’m not saying that he is a better prospect that Luck. You said it much better. As a thrower he is special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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