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Is Bradon Beane Playing The Compensatory Draft Pick Game?

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I don't really understand how the NFL Compensatory pick formula works and it's good because it appears I'm not that only one - I don't think Sean McDermott or Doug Whaley knew either.  I do know that the basis of the compensatory is to award teams draft picks for losing more free agents than they sign in an off season.  I believe that the pick for players is determined by a number of factors including, snap count, salary, and awards etc.

 

It's still not clear who was calling the shots in the 2017 offseason.  Publicly, Whaley was presented as GM though some have speculated he might have been a lame duck with McDermott calling the shots.  Either way the Bills botched this formula last season.  Either way because of the salary cap situation last season, The Bills were not in position to sign any big free agent contracts.  They did however sign a number of free agents including difference makers like Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Steve Haushka.  But they also were active in signing lower-end free agents like Haushka, Ryan Davis, Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Ducasse, Andre Davis and Gill Hodges.  Signing so many free agents, namely lower end free agents, eliminated any compensation for Stephon Gilmore (3rd round pick) or Robert Woods (5th round pick).  This was a tremendous oversight by the administration last season.  Outside of Ducasse who had a decent season, you can make the argument that no of the other lower tier free agents really made an impact this season.  It's very possible that the team could have found suitable replacements on the market had they waited, and they would have kept two more draft picks.    

 

Was it a huge deal considering the team made the playoffs finally?  Probably not but two additional picks would have given this team even more options in the 2018 draft.  Either way, they botched this pretty bad.

 

Brandon Beane knows the Compensatory pick formula.  Notice how when he traded Sammy and Darby this off-season the players received in return both had 1 year on their contracts?  If the Bills could somehow keep these player then great - but I believe that he knew both players were likely to command big salaries on the open market, and that the Bills were unlikely to keep them.  So by letting Gaines and Jordan Matthew walk, the Bills stand to collect two additional draft picks - namely a 3rd and 4th round pick.  

 

Don't expect the Bills to go on a spending spree next month.  They may sign a few players to decent deals, but I'm fairly certain you won't see a run on Ryan Davis or Patrick DiMarco type players.  I believe that Beane is looking to recoup 2 additional picks for Gaines and Matthews likely leaving.  

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After watching and seeing how McDermott totally botched it last yr. lets hope Beane won't do the same.  I'd really like to have the additional 3rd and 5th this coming draft for losing Gilmore and Woods.....oh well.

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The Compensatory formula is actually very easy to figure out. 

 

Net gain>Net Loss= No picks

 

Net Gain=Net Loss= 7th round pick of the players you lost we’re better than gained

 

Net Gain<Net Loss= Match up players with similar salaries to eliminate players on both Net gain and Net Loss side. Whoever is left in Net Loss gets assigned comp pick based on first year salary

 

Players who were released or non tendered by teams don’t count for you in the net gain category. So perfect example is Vontae Davis, released by the Colts, wouldn’t count as a net gain. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Compensatory formula is actually very easy to figure out. 

 

Net gain>Net Loss= No picks

 

Net Gain=Net Loss= 7th round pick of the players you lost we’re better than gained

 

Net Gain<Net Loss= Match up players with similar salaries to eliminate players on both Net gain and Net Loss side. Whoever is left in Net Loss gets assigned comp pick based on first year salary

 

Players who were released or non tendered by teams don’t count for you in the net gain category. So perfect example is Vontae Davis, released by the Colts, wouldn’t count as a net gain. 

 

 

 

 

 

I get everything but Net Gain > Net Loss.   What is the range for comp picks based on first year salaries? 

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Please correct if I’m wrong:

if we lose 6 free agents and gain 4 in the early signing period the two highest paid FA lost go into the formula regardless of the money spent on the 4 we acquire. 

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1 hour ago, Estro said:

After watching and seeing how McDermott totally botched it last yr. lets hope Beane won't do the same.  I'd really like to have the additional 3rd and 5th this coming draft for losing Gilmore and Woods.....oh well.


Yeah. McDermott totally botched it last year by coaching the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999! What a loser! I'd so much rather have 101st pick in this coming draft!

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15 minutes ago, Logic said:


Yeah. McDermott totally botched it last year by coaching the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999! What a loser! I'd so much rather have 101st pick in this coming draft!

 

Yeah, he sure did. I mean he only replaced our “Star” CB with a cheaper and better fit to his system. Found us our future LT and OLB. 

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2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Compensatory formula is actually very easy to figure out. 

 

Net gain>Net Loss= No picks

 

Net Gain=Net Loss= 7th round pick of the players you lost we’re better than gained

 

Net Gain<Net Loss= Match up players with similar salaries to eliminate players on both Net gain and Net Loss side. Whoever is left in Net Loss gets assigned comp pick based on first year salary

 

Players who were released or non tendered by teams don’t count for you in the net gain category. So perfect example is Vontae Davis, released by the Colts, wouldn’t count as a net gain. 

 

 

 

 

this is actually super helpful,

my only question is the term 'better'  

what is the criteria for determining better

 

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Only Gaines will get a big contract. No one is going to pay big money to Mathews.  The Bills will likely cut Taylor, possibly John Miller, Lorax, Tolbert, and a few more.  None of the cuts count in the comp pick formula.

They will have far too many holes that will need to be filled in FA to lose more than they sign.  

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1 hour ago, Captain Murica said:

 

Yeah, he sure did. I mean he only replaced our “Star” CB with a cheaper and better fit to his system. Found us our future LT and OLB. 

He also ruined the offense.  Wasted a pks on Zay Jones and created more holes on this team with unnecessary cuts and trades.  I think we were extremely lucky to make the playoffs last yr considering we were minus 56 pt differential as a team.  Mcd still has alot to prove let's see if he can learn from his mistakes.

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11 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

He also ruined the offense.  Wasted a pks on Zay Jones and created more holes on this team with unnecessary cuts and trades.  I think we were extremely lucky to make the playoffs last yr considering we were minus 56 pt differential as a team.  Mcd still has alot to prove let's see if he can learn from his mistakes.


Luck? I disagree.

Bills beat the Broncos (2-0 at the time), handed the Falcons their first loss of the year in THEIR house, clobbered the Raiders, beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead (no easy task), won a must-win overtime game against the Colts with their 3rd string QB, won the game they needed to win in week 17, went 6-2 at home for the first time in decades, not to mention McDermott won his first 4 home games as HC, the first Bills coach to ever do so. All of this he/they did with a bottom 10 roster that was in year 1 of a salary cap/character purge and rebuild. 

I agree that McDermott has room for improvement, but you'd be hard pressed to find a more impressive coaching job -- considering the pressure the drought brings and the state of the roster and salary cap when he arrived -- anywhere in the league than the one he displayed this season. Luck had nothing to do with it.

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1 hour ago, Very Bad Weather said:

this is actually super helpful,

my only question is the term 'better'  

what is the criteria for determining better

 

 

Higher paid Player

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1 minute ago, Logic said:


Luck? I disagree.

Bills beat the Broncos (2-0 at the time), handed the Falcons their first loss of the year in THEIR house, clobbered the Raiders, beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead (no easy task), won a must-win overtime game against the Colts with their 3rd string QB, won the game they needed to win in week 17, went 6-2 at home for the first time in decades, not to mention McDermott won his first 4 home games as HC, the first Bills coach to ever do so. All of this he/they did with a bottom 10 roster that was in year 1 of a salary cap/character purge and rebuild. 

I agree that McDermott has room for improvement, but you'd be hard pressed to find a more impressive coaching job -- considering the pressure the drought brings and the state of the roster and salary cap when he arrived -- anywhere in the league than the one he displayed this season. Luck had nothing to do with it.

I'm more of the belief that we would of been even better had we not purged the team so much.  Mcd didn't realize what was really our downfall the last 2yrs with Rex it was the injuries and bad coaching. I seen other coaches take over worse situations and not go gut there talent to this degree.  Mcd seems needy to me like he can't get guys to buy in like Dareus & Darby or even Sammy.  A great coach can sell his culture by example not force feed it on players. 

 

Mcd took over a team with a nice nucleus of young talent and gutted the roster now we got 2 extra pks in the high rds to try to fill what looks like a ton of holes. I call that a mirage people around here make it like he traded for all 5pks . 

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3 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I get everything but Net Gain > Net Loss.   What is the range for comp picks based on first year salaries? 

 

So for instance 

 Net Gain 4 Players

A. 6.2 Million

B. 3.4 Million

C. 10.4 Million

D. 7.5

 

Net Loss 5 Players

A. 5.4 Million

B. 11.2 Million

C. 2.7 Million

D. 7.9 Million

E. 8.6 Million

 

The NFL then will match similar salaries

 

6.2 cancels 5.4 Million

11.2 cancels 10.4 Million

2.7 cancels 3.4 Million

7.5 cancels 7.9 Million

 

So the Net Loss of the teams player is 1 Player with an 8.6 Million dollar 1st year salary. 

 

The NFL then assigns Comp Picks based on the top 32 Net Loss Players, and assigns salary guidelines for each rounds comp picks. 

 

In this case 8.6 would prob lead to a 4th or 5th round comp pick 

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2 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I'm more of the belief that we would of been even better had we not purged the team so much.  Mcd didn't realize what was really our downfall the last 2yrs with Rex it was the injuries and bad coaching. I seen other coaches take over worse situations and not go gut there talent to this degree.  Mcd seems needy to me like he can't get guys to buy in like Dareus & Darby or even Sammy.  A great coach can sell his culture by example not force feed it on players. 

 

Mcd took over a team with a nice nucleus of young talent and gutted the roster now we got 2 extra pks in the high rds to try to fill what looks like a ton of holes. I call that a mirage people around here make it like he traded for all 5pks . 

 

I'm rather inclined to the first paragraph, myself. The second one, I think is as much the additional influence of Beane, especially in respect of clearing cap space, being prioritised over retaining ability.

 

In respect of the 'pressure' of getting rid of the lack of a playoff game, from others in the thread, I'm not too struck on that notion, as for last year, at least,  I wouldn't write it down as one of the fans expectations. Part of a wish list, for sure, but nobody was running McD etc. out of town on a rail,  if they hadn't made the playoffs.

 

Back more in respect of the OP, I think that it will take another year or two before we are in any sort of position to actively seek comp picks. There are too many holes that need filling, even if a lot of them are depth, they still exist.

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6 hours ago, Logic said:


Yeah. McDermott totally botched it last year by coaching the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999! What a loser! I'd so much rather have 101st pick in this coming draft!

 

Finally a post of yours I can be on board with 

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10 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

I don't really understand how the NFL Compensatory pick formula works and it's good because it appears I'm not that only one - I don't think Sean McDermott or Doug Whaley knew either.  I do know that the basis of the compensatory is to award teams draft picks for losing more free agents than they sign in an off season.  I believe that the pick for players is determined by a number of factors including, snap count, salary, and awards etc.

 

It's still not clear who was calling the shots in the 2017 offseason.  Publicly, Whaley was presented as GM though some have speculated he might have been a lame duck with McDermott calling the shots.  Either way the Bills botched this formula last season.  Either way because of the salary cap situation last season, The Bills were not in position to sign any big free agent contracts.  They did however sign a number of free agents including difference makers like Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Steve Haushka.  But they also were active in signing lower-end free agents like Haushka, Ryan Davis, Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Ducasse, Andre Davis and Gill Hodges.  Signing so many free agents, namely lower end free agents, eliminated any compensation for Stephon Gilmore (3rd round pick) or Robert Woods (5th round pick).  This was a tremendous oversight by the administration last season.  Outside of Ducasse who had a decent season, you can make the argument that no of the other lower tier free agents really made an impact this season.  It's very possible that the team could have found suitable replacements on the market had they waited, and they would have kept two more draft picks.    

 

Was it a huge deal considering the team made the playoffs finally?  Probably not but two additional picks would have given this team even more options in the 2018 draft.  Either way, they botched this pretty bad.

 

Brandon Beane knows the Compensatory pick formula.  Notice how when he traded Sammy and Darby this off-season the players received in return both had 1 year on their contracts?  If the Bills could somehow keep these player then great - but I believe that he knew both players were likely to command big salaries on the open market, and that the Bills were unlikely to keep them.  So by letting Gaines and Jordan Matthew walk, the Bills stand to collect two additional draft picks - namely a 3rd and 4th round pick.  

 

Don't expect the Bills to go on a spending spree next month.  They may sign a few players to decent deals, but I'm fairly certain you won't see a run on Ryan Davis or Patrick DiMarco type players.  I believe that Beane is looking to recoup 2 additional picks for Gaines and Matthews likely leaving.  

 

 

Agree with most of this, but two comments.

 

First, it was very clear who was calling the shots in the 2017 offseason. It's been reported on again and again from many different sources and letting Whaley go instantly after the draft only made the obvious even more so. McDermott was calling the shot as the Pegulas loved what McDermott did almost instantly and the power quickly devolved on him.

 

Second, very recently there was an interview with Beane about comp picks. He values them. 

 

"I will be very cognizant of the comp formula," Beane said at the end of the season. "When I walked in, it was too far to really do much with it. But I do believe in it and we'll definitely pay attention to it when it makes sense."

 

http://buffalonews.com/2018/02/03/inside-the-bills-how-gm-brandon-beane-views-the-changing-nature-of-free-agency/

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6 hours ago, Logic said:


Luck? I disagree.

Bills beat the Broncos (2-0 at the time), handed the Falcons their first loss of the year in THEIR house, clobbered the Raiders, beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead (no easy task), won a must-win overtime game against the Colts with their 3rd string QB, won the game they needed to win in week 17, went 6-2 at home for the first time in decades, not to mention McDermott won his first 4 home games as HC, the first Bills coach to ever do so. All of this he/they did with a bottom 10 roster that was in year 1 of a salary cap/character purge and rebuild. 

I agree that McDermott has room for improvement, but you'd be hard pressed to find a more impressive coaching job -- considering the pressure the drought brings and the state of the roster and salary cap when he arrived -- anywhere in the league than the one he displayed this season. Luck had nothing to do with it.

 

 

I disagree with your disagreement about it being luck. There was a lot of luck involved I would argue.

 

Yeah, the Broncos were 2-0 when we beat them. In their first game of the year, Denver had beaten a Chargers team that lost its first four games and a Cowboys team that started at 2-3 and those two wins were only the Giants and Cardinals. That win looked a lot better at the time than it turned out to be.

 

Same with the Falcons win. Atlanta looked pretty good the first couple of games, but a bit weaker against the Lions and then we were lucky enough to see Julio Jones get injured in our game on top of having lost Sanu, Beasley and their RT, can't remember his name. After Julio's injury they only scored seven in a half and a bit more. Also, the Falcons lost to Miami the next week at home in Atlanta too.

 

The fact that you're boasting about a win over the Colts to me kinda sums up the whole thing.

 

I agree that McDermott did a fine job, but he also got very lucky with the schedule (opponents cumulative win-loss was well below even and we hit the better teams at very good times).

Edited by Thurman#1

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5 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

So for instance 

 Net Gain 4 Players

A. 6.2 Million

B. 3.4 Million

C. 10.4 Million

D. 7.5

 

Net Loss 5 Players

A. 5.4 Million

B. 11.2 Million

C. 2.7 Million

D. 7.9 Million

E. 8.6 Million

 

The NFL then will match similar salaries

 

6.2 cancels 5.4 Million

11.2 cancels 10.4 Million

2.7 cancels 3.4 Million

7.5 cancels 7.9 Million

 

So the Net Loss of the teams player is 1 Player with an 8.6 Million dollar 1st year salary. 

 

The NFL then assigns Comp Picks based on the top 32 Net Loss Players, and assigns salary guidelines for each rounds comp picks. 

 

In this case 8.6 would prob lead to a 4th or 5th round comp pick 

 

I’ve always understood it to be average value, not first year salary (too much variation could occur based on structure for similar players getting similar contracts but teams signing having different cap needs skewing signing bonus vs salary)

 

that said, it does seem much simpler than the vague and undefined “snap count, honors, compensation and more!” that is portrayed. Year to year sites do very well predicting with just taking the cutoff on rounds from the year prior, adding a minor escalator for inflation and tossing guys in based solely on compensation (typically average annual value)

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I disagree with your disagreement about it being luck. There was a lot of luck involved I would argue.

 

Yeah, the Broncos were 2-0 when we beat them. In their first game of the year, Denver had beaten a Chargers team that lost its first four games and a Cowboys team that started at 2-3 and those two wins were only the Giants and Cardinals. That win looked a lot better at the time than it turned out to be.

 

Same with the Falcons win. Atlanta looked pretty good the first couple of games, but a bit weaker against the Lions and then we were lucky enough to see Julio Jones get injured in our game on top of having lost Sanu, Beasley and their RT, can't remember his name. After Julio's injury they only scored seven in a half and a bit more. More, the Falcons lost to Miami the next week at home in Atlanta too.

 

The fact that you're boasting about a win over the Colts to me kinda sums up the whole thing.

 

I agree that McDermott did a fine job, but he also got very lucky with the schedule (opponents cumulative win-loss was well below even and we hit the better teams at very good times).

 

Yup. I think many get defensive that if you acknowledge luck it’s like saying we didn’t deserve it. Lucks a big part of the wild card. You get about half the conference in a 2 game window— and generally speaking someone gets a lucky bounce, stays a little healthy, and catches a good opponent on the right week and suddenly we talk about them as a deserving team and the teams on the outside as junk. 

 

Once you get in that 7 to 9 win dog pile everyone is pretty close and it’s amazing how unlucky we were for almost 20 years. Some of those teams were better than given credit for, and this ones probably not as good as many rolled into Jacksonville claiming. We’ve had a lot of .500 quality rosters but the outcomes of that can be a roller coaster

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14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Here's a clear and extremely in-depth article on it. It's not quite as easy as suggested above.

 

https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

 

For the purpose of message board banter, it really is just about as easy as the thread portrays though. ID qualifying signings based on how they left their last team and when they signed. Slot up gains vs losses. Take the average value and compare it to last years guys.

 

 

If you want to nail the exact round for all 32 picks handed out you might get very slight variations based the in depth process — but the bar napkin example provided will likely suffice in identifying the 31 of 32 recipients and get you 29 of them in the right round and the other 3 being guys on the edge bumping up or down a round or someone being right on the edge of qualifying 

 

Sometimes the incredibly simple and very good version is better for fan talk 

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During the season aI started to hate the compensatory pick system because I was so tired of seeing threads that the bills should cut several contributing players for like a 3rd round pick while the playoff hut was very alive.  If playoff were off the table then why not. 

 

If a team is trying to gain comp picks then they are not trying to build a football team.   

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3 minutes ago, artmalibu said:

During the season aI started to hate the compensatory pick system because I was so tired of seeing threads that the bills should cut several contributing players for like a 3rd round pick while the playoff hut was very alive.  If playoff were off the table then why not. 

 

If a team is trying to gain comp picks then they are not trying to build a football team.   

 

If you have two relatively equal options but one nets you a pick— I’d say that’s great team building to take the dude that gets you the pick.

 

im not cutting a true contributor mid season but if we are deciding between two depth linebackers that are very similar cost but ones an expiring contract and the other was cut— get the guy that was cut 

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Beane is on the record by stating he will be very cognizant of the compensatory pick formula when making decisions about what moves to make in Free Agency in 2018.  He said it was too late for him to do anything regarding this in 2017 since he was hired after Free Agent acqusitions had already been made.

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8 hours ago, Logic said:


Yeah. McDermott totally botched it last year by coaching the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999! What a loser! I'd so much rather have 101st pick in this coming draft!

I don't happen to think Patrick DiMarco, Vlad Ducasse, or Ryan Davis were worth forgoing the 2 mid round picks, do you?  You think those 3 were what put the Bills over the top?  You think the Bills could've signed comparable talent had they waited post June 1 or signed players that were cut or were those 3 UFAs must haves?

 

Think through your arguments before posting uninformed sarcastic stupidity.

 

If you don't think 3rd and 5th round picks are extremely valuable assets you're a dumber fan than most.

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