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2018 QB Film Review: Results of watching 3 games each of top prospects


Bocephuz

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

After his first couple games he seemed to tone it down a bit, and I wondered if that was way - "Tony, back off, the DCs are piping you into their headsets!"

 

Wouldnt bet against it! He's seen everything...   I did notice he toned it down as well as the season went on

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8 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

.....why has the Falk kid virtually disappeared from the radar?.......moving up would require some significant draft capital......what is your opinion if McBeane takes Rudolph at 21/22?....

 

idk what happened to Falk. i remember being impressed watching his 2016 tape and this year big dropoff. he’s gunshy for some reason 

8 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

We would have to give up everything to move up to get the QB that we like,I don't see Beanie doing that.

 

The more I watch Luke Falk the more I like him, he may take a year or 2 to develop but with his accuracy and anticipation I think he could become a very good QB. His film study is top notch, this kids whole life is a devotion to football. With good coaching I can see Luke Falk being a good starting QB.

 

Falk is really good throwing across the middle.. there’s something good buried there.. it may be buried too deep though 

7 hours ago, Mat68 said:

 

I commend the work and effort.  Scoring Baker the same for arm strength that you score Allen however, leaves me questioning your opinion on everything else.  That is really an apparent difference that jumps out at you.  

Mayfield had no trouble getting to any part of the field with zip. Allen of course has stronger arm but Allen is a freak

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Great job Bocephuz!

 

Two questions on Mayfield and Rosen: do either of them slide?

hah... not often. they both get a little reckless running 

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15 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

3 games is a pretty low sample size.

Darnold has less experience than the others, so he's less polished.

Darnold could be great, or could be another USC flameout.

that depends on witch games he is basing this on. If he is looking at each of there 3 best games witch I believe he did, Then the sample size is fine.

Obviously one does this cause you want to figure out what each players ceiling is.

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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I shouldn't answer for Bocephuz but IMO arm strength may reflect different things - Allen clearly has a howitzer but he doesn't seem to have touch on his short and intermediate throws.  Mayfield doesn't have a howitzer, just a good hunting rifle, but he seems able to dial it in.  Perhaps that is part of what Bocephuz is seeing?

1

You must have missed Allen's  performance in the senior bowl in which he threw with the touch into small windows in his second series. Probably this is what moved him to #1 in Mel Kiper's draft. The kid reminds me of Big Ben in the way he sheds sackers. He may go #1 overall.

 

 

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22 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees

I think you at right from a physical traits standpoint. They have similar size and stature but also their accuracy and arm strength seems similar. 

 

The big difference between the two is maturity. Mayfield is lacking some in this department and I believe the Bills will end up avoiding taking a run at Mayfield as a result. 

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17 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

see my chart for specifics. The 3 games I watched for Jackson were very underwhelming as far as passing goes

 

And there's my problem with cherry picking 3 games. I like when people do detailed analysis like this, but using only 3 games to decide who you think is the best is fundamentally flawed. 

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A factor to throw into the mix with all of these QBs is poor DB play at the NCAA level, even among elite programs.

 

I see a lot of "highlight" QB throws in college that result in big chunk yardage or TDs, but the whole thing rides on the back of horrible DB play.  In the NFL, those throws are quite poor and likely INTs.

 

I say this all the time, but the quality gap of the average player on the field among TOP NCAA programs and the NFL is just huge.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

A factor to throw into the mix with all of these QBs is poor DB play at the NCAA level, even among elite programs.

 

I see a lot of "highlight" QB throws in college that result in big chunk yardage or TDs, but the whole thing rides on the back of horrible DB play.  In the NFL, those throws are quite poor and likely INTs.

 

I say this all the time, but the quality gap of the average player on the field among TOP NCAA programs and the NFL is just huge.

 

 

 

Which is why I will never call an NFL player untalented...

 

You are exactly right that their is a HUGE talent gap between college and the pros... even between a blue chip school and the Browns 

 

the Browns would wax every college football team and it wouldn't be close. The NFL only takes the best of the best

 

lots of poor DB play in college 

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12 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

that depends on witch games he is basing this on. If he is looking at each of there 3 best games witch I believe he did, Then the sample size is fine.

Obviously one does this cause you want to figure out what each players ceiling is.

 

i chose random games. i general i tried to watch 2 against top competition and 1 against not so top

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38 minutes ago, GrizzReaper said:

It still seems silly to me that prospects are picked on for thier height... Sure wish we had grabbed up Russel Wilson back when. Although I suppose more often than not shorter QBs struggle.

 

There's a reason.  It is generally speaking harder for a short QB to make it in the NFL.  The linemen are bigger and faster, the LB are bigger and faster....it's tough.  It's not just QB, other things being equal, size is an advantage at most positions in the NFL.

 

I wish we had grabbed Wilson also.  Of all the boneheaded bonehead draft moves the Bills have pulled, trading up for TJ Graham when Russ Wilson was still on the board in 2012 and our last draftee QB had flamed out, is the one that still stings the most.  Yeah, I can see not 1st or 2nd round, but 3rd round?  Foles and Cousins were still there too.  Even if we thought Ryan Fitzpatrick was really our guy after the end of 2011, why not hedge our bets at the most important position and sign a WR in FA?

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55 minutes ago, GrizzReaper said:

It still seems silly to me that prospects are picked on for thier height... Sure wish we had grabbed up Russel Wilson back when. Although I suppose more often than not shorter QBs struggle.

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

 

Well... In that scenario we would shore up the lines some and the LB group. All of which need some talent. Next tier QB group is meh... I figure thats just like keeping Tyrod. There wouldn't be much optimism regarding the QB for sure.

 

Personally I would like to see the Bills use this draft capital to make a move for a solid QB. Ive seen previous Bills teams with talent on the d line... Good secondaries... running backs and so on. Every season it seems there are talented groups on the field on either side of the ball and no matter how well those positions or groups perform... We are repeatedly let down by the QB in some way shape or form.

 

 Im hoping maybe they nab a long term QB and we get to see how they do with a solid QB and maybe less talent around the field. I'd prefer to see them field a team with a good QB and a poor DL rather than a good DL and a poor QB.

 

They have some ammo to move up. If they manage the playoffs again these next few years we probably wont have the capital to move up to grab a QB without really hamstringing future drafts. This is a good year to make that move all things considered. 

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22 hours ago, Bocephuz said:

 

idk what happened to Falk. i remember being impressed watching his 2016 tape and this year big dropoff. he’s gunshy for some reason 

 

Falk is really good throwing across the middle.. there’s something good buried there.. it may be buried too deep though 

 

 

2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...risking a MAJOR meltdown or crash of TBD as well as overcrowding the Peace Bridge with TBD jumpers, what happens if McBeane & his gang go OL/DL/LB or however you want to arrange them with the first 3 picks and look at the mid tier QB market of perhaps Falk, White, Lauletta or Ferguson?....perhaps NOT probable BUT anything is possible I guess.......

 

Falk broke his wrist in the 2nd game this year.

It's only speculation on my part but if something goes weird in the draft and BUF can't get the 1st tier guy(s) they want, I can see McDermott going for Falk.

From things I've read, NE is high on him too.

 

Good article about the wrist.

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/Washington-State-football-QB-Luke-Falk-played-season-with-broken-wrist-worsening-condition-forced-surgery-before-bowl-game-112939862

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