KDIGGZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I hope Darnold goes #1. Too many mechanical red flags for me to think he's worth it so take him off the board so the Bills aren't tempted. His throwing motion is horrendous and he fumbles a lot as a result. He also has happy feet in the pocket. You need to throw from a nice solid base, not tip toeing like a tap dancer and then flinging it side arm. If you want to see what it should look like watch Rosen. Nice solid base turns his shoulders and keeps the ball high. Absolute text book delivery. With Mayfield and Rosen it's a tough one. Rosen is the safer pick. Mayfield wants it more but desire can only take you so far if you don't have the physical tools. Tough to say where that limit would be. So far his height doesn't seem to be an issue but it's hard to say if it will be. I'd take Rosen and hope that he matures. If Allen falls (doubt it) he is an intriguing prospect, but you have to be willing to keep him on the bench at minimum 1 full season, maybe even 2. If the Bills traded up to get him there would be pressure to play him right away and he's simply not ready. They need to get him one of those virtual reality systems and let him learn the mental aspects of the game. He has gotten by with having a strong arm and good scrambling ability but if he actually made the right reads and decisions he would be unstoppable. Rudolph, I just haven't seen him do the necessary things you need an NFL QB to do. I want to see him under center with proper footwork and making reads in the pocket. I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round without seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said: We would have to give up everything to move up to get the QB that we like,I don't see Beanie doing that. The more I watch Luke Falk the more I like him, he may take a year or 2 to develop but with his accuracy and anticipation I think he could become a very good QB. His film study is top notch, this kids whole life is a devotion to football. With good coaching I can see Luke Falk being a good starting QB. .....he always seemed to be in the discussion mix and then abruptly disappeared from the radar.....what happened?...... Edited February 17, 2018 by OldTimeAFLGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, kdiggz said: I hope Darnold goes #1. Too many mechanical red flags for me to think he's worth it so take him off the board so the Bills aren't tempted. His throwing motion is horrendous and he fumbles a lot as a result. He also has happy feet in the pocket. You need to throw from a nice solid base, not tip toeing like a tap dancer and then flinging it side arm. If you want to see what it should look like watch Rosen. Nice solid base turns his shoulders and keeps the ball high. Absolute text book delivery. With Mayfield and Rosen it's a tough one. Rosen is the safer pick. Mayfield wants it more but desire can only take you so far if you don't have the physical tools. Tough to say where that limit would be. So far his height doesn't seem to be an issue but it's hard to say if it will be. I'd take Rosen and hope that he matures. If Allen falls (doubt it) he is an intriguing prospect, but you have to be willing to keep him on the bench at minimum 1 full season, maybe even 2. If the Bills traded up to get him there would be pressure to play him right away and he's simply not ready. They need to get him one of those virtual reality systems and let him learn the mental aspects of the game. He has gotten by with having a strong arm and good scrambling ability but if he actually made the right reads and decisions he would be unstoppable. Rudolph, I just haven't seen him do the necessary things you need an NFL QB to do. I want to see him under center with proper footwork and making reads in the pocket. I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round without seeing that. I like a lot of the points u make...my main concern is Rosen’s concussion and injury history...he seems kind of soft because he used to play tennis and comes from a well-to-do family...I wonder, if after another injury or two, he will just call it s career and pursue a nice cushy job in an air conditioned office place somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I think after years and years of tentative QBs like Edwards, EJ and Taylor having a guy like Darnold would be a breath of fresh air. I think my favorites are still Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield in that order. Why didn't the OP consider Jackson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Good analysis, I think you are a little high on Rosen. He has turnover concerns similar to Darnold. I also think you are a little harsh on Darnold, there is no way he is a worse prospect than Allen. I think Darnold will be similar to Winston at the next level. He should be a mid level starter with too many turnovers to win consistently. Wish you added Mike White to the list, he is my QB4 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Bocephuz said: I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings. My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting My 3 general takeaways are this - Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level - Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick - Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill Flame away:) Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size. I commend the work and effort. Scoring Baker the same for arm strength that you score Allen however, leaves me questioning your opinion on everything else. That is really an apparent difference that jumps out at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bocephuz said: I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings. My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting My 3 general takeaways are this - Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level - Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick - Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill Flame away:) Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size. When you say serviceable NFL Starter, Tannehill is not what comes to my mind...Serviceable is Dalton, Flacco or A. Smith. Imo, Tannehill is a fringe player paid top 10 QB salary... I totally agree with your assessment of Darnold, he's going to need some development. Edited February 17, 2018 by pimp on da' net added commentary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I appreciate the effort. That’s where I’ll leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Good work OP. There is so much film to get through this year and I am trying to do 8 guys. I have finished 3 I think. I'm gonna be late getting my thoughts up this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Bocephuz said: I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings. My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting My 3 general takeaways are this - Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level - Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick - Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill Flame away:) Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size. Great job Bocephuz! Two questions on Mayfield and Rosen: do either of them slide? Edited February 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: .....he always seemed to be in the discussion mix and then abruptly disappeared from the radar.....what happened?...... Falk was always a 2nd-3rd round prospect and then he threw 11 TDs to 11 INTs over the last 6 games of the year (including a 0 TD, 5 INT game against a below average defensive team). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, HappyDays said: Maybe it's just the height comparison but Baker Mayfield really reminds me of Drew Brees I started out thinking he might be a Russ-Wilson type and after watching some film came to that conclusion myself. The only thing (and I don't know enough QB mechanics to say if it's a good thing, a bad thing, or a thing thing) is if you watch film of Brees at Purdue, he has this wonderful footwork - really classic footwork. At first I thought Mayfield had bad footwork, then I changed my mind watching him, seeing that it was consistent and effective. But it's not classic - he has a stance that is wider than his shoulders. Go look at footwork of Brees at Purdue and then Mayfield - Can you see what I mean? Anyone who knows their QB mechanics able to comment? Rosen is the only one of the top prospects in this year's class who seems to have that good, classic footwork. Edited February 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, DCOrange said: Falk was always a 2nd-3rd round prospect and then he threw 11 TDs to 11 INTs over the last 6 games of the year (including a 0 TD, 5 INT game against a below average defensive team). ....thanks for your help........didn't realize he was a forecasted 2nd........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Bocephuz said: I watched 3 games each of the top 6 prospects. See chart below for my rankings. My scoring system is weighted... for example... decision making has a weighting of 3x... under center experience has a 1.5x weighting My 3 general takeaways are this - Mayfield and Rosen are on their own elite level - Darnold is not worth a top 10 pick - Rudolph could be a serviceable starter.. not a high ceiling.. but could be Tannehill Flame away:) Click on the image below to bring up the chart in viewable size. This is where I have landed as well after multiple statistical evaluations and then reviewing the film. I will only speak to Rosen, because I do feel that is our target with the Giants Pick, but if not Rosen I would like it to be Mayfield. In my eye Rosen has just distanced himself enough from Mayfield that I really hope that's who we land. #1: Rosen: Several very strong qualities that would translate over that none of the other QB's showed consistently. His upper body can be shifting and scanning all across the field at a rapid rate but his lower body and feet keep up and in such a fluid way. Just impeccable foot work and positioning to always be ready to pull the trigger. He scans the field and in most the throws he made he wasn't throwing to his first target. He manipulates defenses with his pump fake and body positioning. His release is lightning quick. Does a great job hitting the intermediate throws, specifically over the center and back shoulder. Great ball placement. Could work on his deep ball a bit. I don't think he has elite arm strength but certainly more than enough. He could start his first season and be on his way by year two. He's the best QB in this draft and has been considered as such for some time, all this QB hype from other prospects has sort of clouded that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 (edited) 56 minutes ago, pimp on da' net said: When you say serviceable NFL Starter, Tannehill is not what comes to my mind...Serviceable is Dalton, Flacco or A. Smith. Imo, Tannehill is a fringe player paid top 10 QB salary... I totally agree with your assessment of Darnold, he's going to need some development. Ha ha! I would say that about Flacco. Seriously, Flacco has had great play on the D side of the ball at times, and he has that SB win but otherwise in terms of actual recent QB results Tannehill > Flacco. After a few solid years starting in 2013, it's like every other year Flacco throws almost as many INTs as TDs. Tannehill is at least as good as Dalton, and without the benefit of throwing to AJ Green. The only knock I can give you on Tannehill is he threw too many picks his first 2 years but he seems to have got to grips with that, so unless he starts doing a Flacco, we could win with that. Smith is sort of his own outlier class as a QB since he took like, 5 years in the league to start playing decently and longer to become good. So do you call him what he was last year (quite good), or what he was previously in KC (servicable) or what he was his first 5 years (bust)? 1 hour ago, Mat68 said: I commend the work and effort. Scoring Baker the same for arm strength that you score Allen however, leaves me questioning your opinion on everything else. That is really an apparent difference that jumps out at you. I shouldn't answer for Bocephuz but IMO arm strength may reflect different things - Allen clearly has a howitzer but he doesn't seem to have touch on his short and intermediate throws. Mayfield doesn't have a howitzer, just a good hunting rifle, but he seems able to dial it in. Perhaps that is part of what Bocephuz is seeing? Edited February 17, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purple haze Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: .....he always seemed to be in the discussion mix and then abruptly disappeared from the radar.....what happened?...... He got benched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Ha ha! I would say that about Flacco. Seriously, Flacco has had great play on the D side of the ball at times, and he has that SB win but otherwise in terms of actual recent QB results Tannehill > Flacco. After a few solid years starting in 2013, it's like every other year Flacco throws almost as many INTs as TDs. Tannehill is at least as good as Dalton, and without the benefit of throwing to AJ Green. The only knock I can give you on Tannehill is he threw too many picks his first 2 years but he seems to have got to grips with that, so unless he starts doing a Flacco, we could win with that. Smith is sort of his own outlier class as a QB since he took like, 5 years in the league to start playing decently and longer to become good. So do you call him what he was last year (quite good), or what he was previously in KC (servicable) or what he was his first 5 years (bust)? I shouldn't answer for Bocephuz but IMO arm strength may reflect different things - Allen clearly has a howitzer but he doesn't seem to have touch on his short and intermediate throws. Mayfield doesn't have a howitzer, just a good hunting rifle, but he seems able to dial it in. Perhaps that is part of what Bocephuz is seeing? I am not answering for Bocephuz either but touch IMO is its own category as for the strength of ones arm... Baker has a strong arm with good velocity but nobody this year has the strength or velocity of Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 .....with possibly the exception of Falk from what I'm reading, prospects in this analysis can be termed the "top tier"......strictly opinion, but I don't see McBeane surrendering coveted draft capital to move up.......Rudolph may be his target at 21/22........or does he look to the next tier ala White, Ferguson or Lauletta, etc ?......would be a ton of work, but I wonder how that tier stacks up versus each other and who may grade out at the top if this is the route McBeane takes?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: I am not answering for Bocephuz either but touch IMO is its own category as for the strength of ones arm... Baker has a strong arm with good velocity but nobody this year has the strength or velocity of Allen Fair, and actually now that I look more carefully at the enlarged chart, that can't be the answer either as Bocephuz has "touch" as its own category as well. Since we have your attention...can you educate me about Mayfield's footwork? It looks non-standard to me, but he seems to move about neatly and effectively. What am I seeing there? Rosen OTOH seems to have very nice footwork. Been waiting for the next installments of QB Film Room, assume you're tied up with the main job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Rosen’s weight and shoulder injury worries me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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