Fadingpain Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft. Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on. It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent. And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. The QBs taken in that draft went as follows: 1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver) 7) Todd Blackledge to KC 14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills 15) Tony Eason to New England 24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets 27) Dan Marino to Dolphins Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last. Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14! Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino. He was worse than all of them. Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL. As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins. There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead. For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick. It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day. We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th. Remember this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Fadingpain said: A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft. Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on. It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent. And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. The QBs taken in that draft went as follows: 1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver) 7) Todd Blackledge to KC 14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills 15) Tony Eason to New England 24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets 27) Dan Marino to Dolphins Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last. Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14! Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino. He was worse than all of them. Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL. As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins. There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead. For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick. It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day. We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th. Remember this! Also note that scouting back then and scouting now we're 2 completely different animals. Also note that literally every draft in NFL history can be looked back upon with the "Oh, this team should have drafted...." glasses on. What seems a no brainer now wasn't back then. Could also point out the following order of drafted QBs from another draft "Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman" and see a counterpoint to where the worst QB taken in the first round was. In football every Ying has its Yang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 The point remains that all the NFL teams had confidence in their ability to evaluate talent in 1983, just as they do now. And in fact, they don't. I am not getting caught up in which ranked QB we get, as long as we get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Fadingpain said: A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft. Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on. It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent. And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. The QBs taken in that draft went as follows: 1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver) 7) Todd Blackledge to KC 14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills 15) Tony Eason to New England 24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets 27) Dan Marino to Dolphins Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last. Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14! Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino. He was worse than all of them. Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL. As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins. There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead. For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick. It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day. We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th. Remember this! Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2004: Eli, Rivers, Ben, and we picked LOSMAN 2018: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen and we pick ??? (probably nobody because we need a LB and everyone knows LB's win Super Bowls hurrr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, KelsaysLunchbox said: Also note that scouting back then and scouting now we're 2 completely different animals. Also note that literally every draft in NFL history can be looked back upon with the "Oh, this team should have drafted...." glasses on. What seems a no brainer now wasn't back then. Could also point out the following order of drafted QBs from another draft "Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman" and see a counterpoint to where the worst QB taken in the first round was. In football every Ying has its Yang. Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown? Edited February 16, 2018 by The Jokeman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 (edited) On 2/16/2018 at 5:22 PM, The Jokeman said: Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall. I bet every single one of them had a toke or two in their time! Old scouts smh Edited February 18, 2018 by horned dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 (edited) This year's class is most like 1999 where 5 QB's went in the top 12 picks Tim Couch = Josh Rosen........the chosen one Donovan McNabb = Sam Darnold.........the sturdier alternative with more athleticism Akili Smith = Lamar Jackson.........the high ceiling, huge arm Daunte Culpepper = Josh Allen........the big arm, big body, questionable processing Cade McNown = Baker Mayfield.......the undersized competitor with the big attitude 8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown? That was exactly my thought as well... Edited February 16, 2018 by BADOLBILZ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Fadingpain said: A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft. Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on. It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent. And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. The QBs taken in that draft went as follows: 1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver) 7) Todd Blackledge to KC 14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills 15) Tony Eason to New England 24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets 27) Dan Marino to Dolphins Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last. Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14! Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino. He was worse than all of them. Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL. As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins. There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead. For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick. It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day. We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th. Remember this! Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers? Edited February 16, 2018 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Is anyone out there saying that evaluating and drafting QB’s is a no-lose deal? I’m not 100% sold on any of these guys. I think Rosen and Mayfield have the best chance, but they could all be busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: Or is the yang the 1999 draft with Couch, McNabb, Smith, Culpepper and McNown? If I had to guess...I'm going to say this draft will end up looking more like 2011 with Cam followed by Locker/Gabbert/Ponder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Fadingpain said: A lot of emphasis is being placed on which QB is going to go in which spot in the upcoming draft. Much of the talk presupposes that the guy who goes first will be the best, the guy who goes second will be second best, and so on. It is interesting to look back to 1983, a year in which the QB pool coming out of college was also very deep with talent. And now we have the benefit of hindsight to assess the quality of the picks. The QBs taken in that draft went as follows: 1) John Ellway to Baltimore Colts (later traded to Denver) 7) Todd Blackledge to KC 14) Jim Kelly to Buffalo Bills 15) Tony Eason to New England 24) Ken O'Brien to NY Jets 27) Dan Marino to Dolphins Note that the best of all of them (IMO) went dead last. Note that the Bills in their wisdom took TE Tony Hunter 2 spots ahead of Jimbo with the Number 12 pick, later taking Kelly at 14! Note that KC analyzed all the QB prospects and figured Todd Blackledge would be better than Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino. He was worse than all of them. Note that Marino, on the very short list for best pure passers of all time, was taken with the penultimate pick in the first round, ignored by almost the entire NFL. As a fun aside, note that Darrell Green, one of he best CBs of all time, was taken dead last in the first round with the 28th pick by the Redskins. There were a ton of busted picks ahead of him on the draft board; any of those could have been Darrell Green instead. For example, I bet Detroit wishes they took Green instead of Florida FB James Jones with the 13th overall pick. It's a bit of a crapshoot and we won't know if we got the best, second best, or fourth best QB on draft day. We might get the best of all of them, even if he goes 5th. Remember this! John Elway was 6'3", 202 lbs and Dan Marino dropped because his stats his senior year decreased. His INTs went up and his comp pct dropped. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 We should look back at the 1999 draft; the only draft before this season where 5 QBs went in the first 20 (and in that case, all of them went in the top 12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: This year's class is most like 1999 where 5 QB's went in the top 12 picks Tim Couch = Josh Rosen........the chosen one Donovan McNabb = Sam Darnold.........the sturdier alternative with more athleticism Akili Smith = Lamar Jackson.........the high ceiling, huge arm Daunte Culpepper = Josh Allen........the big arm, big body, questionable processing Cade McNown = Baker Mayfield.......the undersized competitor with the big attitude That was exactly my thought as well... That hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said: Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers? The general assumption of the "DRAFT A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND" crowd is that doing so will result in a franchise QB on a par with Kelly despite the reality that in both 2004 and 2013 that didn't happen. 58 minutes ago, Virgil said: Is anyone out there saying that evaluating and drafting QB’s is a no-lose deal? I’m not 100% sold on any of these guys. I think Rosen and Mayfield have the best chance, but they could all be busts. I agree. What's most troubling is that all of the tops QBs have serious flaws to the point that there's no consensus #1. In both 1983 and 2004, Elway and E Manning were considered the consensus #1 picks in long before February. It's the consensus #1 picks who are the most likely to be successful by a huge margin: hitting about 80% success since 2000 whereas pick through 2-16 are about 50% and 17-32 only around 20%. 56 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said: If I had to guess...I'm going to say this draft will end up looking more like 2011 with Cam followed by Locker/Gabbert/Ponder That's usually what happens in most drafts: 1 good/great QB (usually the guy who goes #1) and any other first rounders being busts. Occasionally a couple of QBs come out of the first round. When that happens, it's usually like 2005 (Smith & Rodgers), 2008 (Ryan & Flacco) or 2012 (Luck & Tannehill) -- one great one and one okay one. What's interesting about 2011 and 2012 is that good/great QBs came out of rounds after the first, which rarely happens: Dalton in 2011 and Wilson and Cousins in 2012. 2014 might be another year with both Carr and Garoppolo from the 2nd, but Carr struggled in 2017 and Garoppolo has made all of 7 starts, it's early yet to judge their careers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 (edited) On 2/16/2018 at 4:22 PM, The Jokeman said: Marino had rumors swirling about marijuana that caused his draft stock to fall. Well, I'll be durned, you're right. But this article has some interesting points about the "herd mentality": The rumor probably didn't have one traceable source. It was just speculation that took on its own life. But Demoff doesn't remember it as a conspiracy that doomed Marino to fall to 27th in the draft. "People started finding reasons to not like Marino, and I think that the drug rumors were just another thing that they threw on the pile," he said. Once a few teams passed on Marino at the start of the NFL draft, a herd mentality kicked in. "This happens in a lot of drafts," Didinger said. "Once a guy starts falling, everybody runs the other way. Everyone assumes everyone else knows something, and they back away." (the article also points out that Marino had kind of a miserable Senior season) Edited February 18, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Well, I'll be durned, you're right. But this article has some interesting points about the "herd mentality": The rumor probably didn't have one traceable source. It was just speculation that took on its own life. But Demoff doesn't remember it as a conspiracy that doomed Marino to fall to 27th in the draft. "People started finding reasons to not like Marino, and I think that the drug rumors were just another thing that they threw on the pile," he said. Once a few teams passed on Marino at the start of the NFL draft, a herd mentality kicked in. "This happens in a lot of drafts," Didinger said. "Once a guy starts falling, everybody runs the other way. Everyone assumes everyone else knows something, and they back away." (the article also points out that Marino had kind of a miserable Senior season) I think that something similar happened to Aaron Rodgers as well. He was supposed to be the #1 pick, but I believe that there were vague rumors floating about him, too, and that sank his draft stock. Edited February 18, 2018 by SoTier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 The most recent two times the Bills drafted a 1st round QB, they got a couple of Todd Blackledges. Here's hoping they get a Kelly, Marino, or Elway this time around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that if you look deeper you’d find that some of these ‘busts’ were due to poor, or constantly changing, coaching and/or a lack of players around them. I find it hard to believe that a college QB could be this closely scrutinized and suddenly turn into garbage. I’m of the mindset to see the Bills draft a guy with the size and resume against top competition from a major conference. He may not turn into John Elway but he’s not going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 5:38 PM, PromoTheRobot said: Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers? Disagree. O'Brien was a good, perhaps very good, QB who had success with the Jets. From memory he led the league in passing and made the Pro Bowl on some very good Jets teams. Eason wasn't terrible, he was serviceable perhaps good at one point, and QB the Patriots to the SB one year but had a relatively short career. So perhaps meh you're right there. Blackledge was a washout. So 3 HOFs, 1 very good , 1 meh to decent, 1 washout. Probably can't expect any better in any QB draft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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