Playing Sherlock Holmes, what QB will the Bills draft? UPDATED

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, NewDayBills said:

I think Josh Allen ends up in Buffalo, just a gut feeling. He sits most of the year behind a veteran, comes in late in the year and dominates.

I believe that if the Bills drafted Darnold or Allen (especially Allen) they would put them in bubble wrap for the 2018 season. They would probably not even dress in the beginning games of the season to avoid the fans clamoring for then to replace the starter during games. By the end of the season, Darnold could see some action depending on the record of the team. I don't think Allen would see the field in 2018 but they would turn the keys over to him in 2019 like Kansas City and Mahomes. Now if the Bills drafted Rudolph, I could see him starting day one if he ended up beating out the competition. Rudolph is older and has more experience than the other two. He is also extremely mature and should be able to handle the pressure and adversity the position requires. 

[macaroni]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Very true. And if the Cardinals were to get Cousins, Foles or maybe one of the MIN. Quarterbacks they may be less inclined to draft one at their spot in the first (they will not take one if they got Cousins or even Foles as they would have to give up assets). 

 

I'm hoping Cousins goes to either the Browns, Jets, or Broncos ... that will eliminate them from the QB draft. If he goes to the Cards, it will force us to trade up higher to leap over the Jets. I don't think the Eagles let go of Foles, and as far as one of the Minny QBs .... I'd have serious health concerns with either Bridgewater or Bradford ... and I don't think they'll let Keenum out of the building.

[BobChalmers]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I believe that if the Bills drafted Darnold or Allen (especially Allen) they would put them in bubble wrap for the 2018 season. They would probably not even dress in the beginning games of the season to avoid the fans clamoring for then to replace the starter during games. By the end of the season, Darnold could see some action depending on the record of the team. 

 

I'm just not grasping the Darnold love - he's a QB with brutal mechanics who had a bad season, came up small against good defenses, and threw a lot of picks.  How much of a pass can he get just based on 2016?

 

Darnold is my candidate for the "QB who will shock everyone by sliding way down the board."

Edited February 15, 2018 by BobChalmers

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I believe that if the Bills drafted Darnold or Allen (especially Allen) they would put them in bubble wrap for the 2018 season. They would probably not even dress in the beginning games of the season to avoid the fans clamoring for then to replace the starter during games. By the end of the season, Darnold could see some action depending on the record of the team. I don't think Allen would see the field in 2018 but they would turn the keys over to him in 2019 like Kansas City and Mahomes. Now if the Bills drafted Rudolph, I could see him starting day one if he ended up beating out the competition. Rudolph is older and has more experience than the other two. He is also extremely mature and should be able to handle the pressure and adversity the position requires. 

 

...wouldn't that force McBeane's hand as far as keeping TT (ASSUMING that is NOT his 1st choice) , so that camp would be TT, Peterman, Darnold/Allen and a possible fourth camp body?....

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, macaroni said:

 

I'm hoping Cousins goes to either the Browns, Jets, or Broncos ... that will eliminate them from the QB draft. If he goes to the Cards, it will force us to trade up higher to leap over the Jets. I don't think the Eagles let go of Foles, and as far as one of the Minny QBs .... I'd have serious health concerns with either Bridgewater or Bradford ... and I don't think they'll let Keenum out of the building.

It depends on who the Bills want to target at QB. If they are in love with Darnold or Allen and not that interested in any of the other quarterbacks, then we would want Cousins to go to the Browns, Jets or Broncos. But if the Bills want Rudolph, it would probably be better for the Cardinals to get Cousins. It is unlikely that Rudolph goes in the top 10, but after that all bets are off. The Cardinals would probably be the biggest threat to take Rudolph because of where they are sitting in the draft. So, it just depends on who the Bills really want. 

4 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...wouldn't that force McBeane's hand as far as keeping TT (ASSUMING that is NOT his 1st choice) , so that camp would be TT, Peterman, Darnold/Allen and a possible fourth camp body?....

It could. But the Bills could just as easily release Taylor and find a cheaper veteran qb to man the position for a year. Maybe Bradford or a Chad Heine type. Nothing to get excited about but it would only be for a year. In camp, you could have Bradford, Peterman and Darnold/Allen. Then in 2019, you start Darnold/Allen and have Peterman as the backup. 

[LABILLBACKER]

49 minutes ago, macaroni said:

The Bills also have a tendency toward 4 year starters who have improved their body of work each year ... with the aforementioned "attributes" adding in a 4 year starter, I also strongly feel that Mason Rudolph is the QB that they are targeting. With all of the "QB needy" teams he just may not last until pick 21/22 ... we just MAY have to trade up a bit to get him. 

As much as I'd love for us to go after Darnold, it's just going to be too expensive unless he falls to 3/4. The assessment of Rosen is right on. I just don't trust Mayfield or Allen panning out as long term NFL qbs.  So that leaves Mason who I like. Only pick him on a small value trade up. If he falls to 21, get him. He will require development, not like Peterman being thrown to the wolves. Get the best DT @ 22. That's how I see it. Good job OP just condense the post some.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

It depends on who the Bills want to target at QB. If they are in love with Darnold or Allen and not that interested in any of the other quarterbacks, then we would want Cousins to go to the Browns, Jets or Broncos. But if the Bills want Rudolph, it would probably be better for the Cardinals to get Cousins. It is unlikely that Rudolph goes in the top 10, but after that all bets are off. The Cardinals would probably be the biggest threat to take Rudolph because of where they are sitting in the draft. So, it just depends on who the Bills really want. 

It could. But the Bills could just as easily release Taylor and find a cheaper veteran qb to man the position for a year. Maybe Bradford or a Chad Heine type. Nothing to get excited about but it would only be for a year. In camp, you could have Bradford, Peterman and Darnold/Allen. Then in 2019, you start Darnold/Allen and have Peterman as the backup. 

 

...as I replied earlier, I like your Rudolph pick (doubt McBeabe surrenders draft capital to move up) and finds a two year max bridge vet to bring Rudolph & Peterman along.....Bradford's health is too big a risk IMO....could conceivably have to throw rook/Peterman to the wolves in game 4........McCown, Henne, Stanton and possibly Hoyer depending on the Pats moves come to mind......Keenum & McCarron will be looking for 4+ year deals.......talk of Foles trade would be QB positional suicide with Wentz return uncertainty.....Bridgewater probably gets tutored and has to stay for another year with Vikes under rook deal......

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...as I replied earlier, I like your Rudolph pick (doubt McBeabe surrenders draft capital to move up) and finds a two year max bridge vet to bring Rudolph & Peterman along.....Bradford's health is too big a risk IMO....could conceivably have to throw rook/Peterman to the wolves in game 4........McCown, Henne, Stanton and possibly Hoyer depending on the Pats moves come to mind......Keenum & McCarron will be looking for 4+ year deals.......talk of Foles trade would be QB positional suicide with Wentz return uncertainty.....Bridgewater probably gets tutored and has to stay for another year with Vikes under rook deal......

If Glennon gets released, he could also be a potential target as a bridge quarterback. I think you would only need one year before the rookie is ready so you are right about Keenum and McCarron. After one year with the bridge qb, the rookie takes over. If they are not ready by year their second year, I am going to be worried. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Good work but I have to say that a lot of people are going to be surprised when Mason Rudolph goes in the third or fourth round. I just don't see it. 

[macaroni]

49 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...as I replied earlier, I like your Rudolph pick (doubt McBeabe surrenders draft capital to move up) and finds a two year max bridge vet to bring Rudolph & Peterman along.....Bradford's health is too big a risk IMO....could conceivably have to throw rook/Peterman to the wolves in game 4........McCown, Henne, Stanton and possibly Hoyer depending on the Pats moves come to mind......Keenum & McCarron will be looking for 4+ year deals.......talk of Foles trade would be QB positional suicide with Wentz return uncertainty.....Bridgewater probably gets tutored and has to stay for another year with Vikes under rook deal......

 

 

You forgot to mention Fitzpatrick

 

 

just sayin' 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, macaroni said:

 

 

You forgot to mention Fitzpatrick

 

 

just sayin' 

 

..my kevlar vest would NEVER stop the bullet holes......

[DCOrange]

Darnold has everything McBeane supposedly looks for with the exception of that line about a dummied down system/not calling audibles and stuff. System wise Darnold, Mayfield, and Rudolph don’t really fit what that excerpt was describing. Based on the OP, I would guess that Josh Allen is the guy they covet. Idk if Beane has said more on the subject though.

 

I’d also like to think he wouldn’t tip his hand in a radio interview like that though so maybe this is all a moot point. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I don't think Allen comes anywhere close to the accuracy that Beane has publicly said he looks for and cares about more than arm strength.

 

I hope you're right.  I get it that stats aren't everything and a lot goes into completion percentage besides accuracy, but I think completion percentage is a starting place.

 

I don't think it ever ends well when teams draft a guy with a strong arm who can't complete >60% of his passes at any point with significant playing time.  He has to at least get there his last year in college, or be there and have a sound reason why it fell off like his entire OL graduated or his WR lead the conference in drops or something.

17 hours ago, racketmaster said:

It’s draft season and it is always an exciting time especially when the Bills are in the market for a quarterback. (....)

 

So we have a pretty good idea of what attributes the Bills value in all of their players. But what are some of the specific characteristics the Bills may be looking for in a quarterback? The following quote from Brandon Beane gives us some insight into this area:  "Obviously, you draw them up, from a physical standpoint, they look like Cam (Newton)," Beane said. "But how many are there like that? You want a guy, the stature, the height, you know, they're standing over, they're not worried about linemen in their face. It gives them the vision and all that. Arm strength. But the one thing that people I think miss a little bit when they're watching, you know, the college game schematically has just been so dummied down that these guys know before the ball's snapped right where they're going. There's no progressions. There's no audibiling. That's the challenge that the college guys have, and it's brutal. And these quarterbacks that are getting drafted high that have never taken a snap from center, have never called an audible. That's tough. The intangibles are the other thing that you can't necessarily measure from the film. I can turn on the film and watch some things. You obviously want to see quarterbacks live, but what's this guy's makeup? What's his leadership? Do guys rally behind him? I go back to Carolina. Jake Delhomme, one of the greatest leaders I've ever been around. He was undrafted. The guy willed himself to lead the team the years he was in Carolina. His intangibles were a 12 on a one-to-10 scale. And that's how he overcame his athletic limitations. I kind of went around the question a little bit, but you're looking for a lot of things, some of it physically we can all see. But a lot of it you can't necessarily see." 

 

(....)

Conclusions/Predictions:

So that is a lot of information to digest. Hopefully, you were patient to sift through it all for yourself. Maybe you have and made your own conclusions. Here are my takeaways from this information/evidence:

 

SUMMARY:

Things can change but as I see it right now I put the following percentages of the Bills drafting the following qbs: Rudolph 50%, Allen 25%, Darnold 20% and the remaining field 5%. My bet is Rudolph because he should be available for the Bills at 21 or maybe they have to just move up a few spots at a reasonable price. Darnold will probably end up at #1 and I don’t see the Browns moving out of that spot. If he slips past the NYG, the Bills will probably try and take a major run at him. Maybe even try and trade with the Giants if they are willing to go with Eli for another few years (probably unlikely scenario). If Allen passes the interview process and mental tests from our coaches he could be in play for a trade up, especially if he gets past Denver and the Jets. Things could change, but that’s how I would handicap it right now.

 

I just want to say thanks for a great post!  Really good job putting this all together.

 

I don't know if you're right, I love the approach though.

14 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Darnold has everything McBeane supposedly looks for with the exception of that line about a dummied down system/not calling audibles and stuff. System wise Darnold, Mayfield, and Rudolph don’t really fit what that excerpt was describing. Based on the OP, I would guess that Josh Allen is the guy they covet. Idk if Beane has said more on the subject though.

 

I’d also like to think he wouldn’t tip his hand in a radio interview like that though so maybe this is all a moot point. 

 

I hope you're wrong. 

 

I think the part about system was more that the Bills recognize that they need to spend a lot of time talking to QB and looking into their ability to understand and retain plays that are explained to them.

[BuffaloHokie13]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I hope you're right.  I get it that stats aren't everything and a lot goes into completion percentage besides accuracy, but I think completion percentage is a starting place.

 

I don't think it ever ends well when teams draft a guy with a strong arm who can't complete >60% of his passes at any point with significant playing time.  He has to at least get there his last year in college, or be there and have a sound reason why it fell off like his entire OL graduated or his WR lead the conference in drops or something.

Thats the worst part, He wasn't really plagued by drops like Rosen or Jackson.

[frostbitmic]

I keep reading that the Bills love Darnold and Rosen so I believe that those two are smokescreens. I also don't believe the Bills will use up the draft capital they have to make a move for anyone.

 

If Rudolph is available when the Bills pick I think it's a 90% chance they take him.

If he is gone by our pick I think there will be a 50% chance they take Jackson.

If they pass on a QB in the first round I think there's a 75% chance they take Luke Falk or Mike White in the 2nd round.

 

Passing on a QB in this draft wouldn't shock me either.

[DCOrange]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Thats the worst part, He wasn't really plagued by drops like Rosen or Jackson.

 

That's true, but he was still plagued by having an awful supporting cast. For example, 38.0% of Allen's passes came while under pressure this year. The average of the rest of the draft class was 24.3%. The next closest to Allen was Lamar at just over 31%. Considering the impact that being under pressure has on completion percentage, that alone is a huge reason that Allen's completion % suffered so much.

 

Having said that though, even his completion % on non-pressured passes was the lowest of the group.

[Sherlock Holmes]

If no trade up then Rudolph

[Lfod]

I think we pick a later round QB like we did with Nate Peterman. I didn't say that's what I want to happen...

Edited February 16, 2018 by Lfod

[racketmaster]

1 hour ago, Lfod said:

I think we pick a later round QB like we did with Nate Peterman. I didn't say that's what I want to happen...

That's possible but I truly don't believe that drafting a mid round qb will be the plan heading into the draft. Beane slipped somewhat when stating that he had seen all the quarterbacks that matter and that those were the ones projected to go in the first round. The plan is to identify and draft a franchise qb in the first round this year, but with so many other teams also looking for quarterbacks who are ahead of the Bills, that plan could be derailed. Of the top 6 quarterbacks, the Bills probably would be comfortable taking 3 of them in the first round as outlined above. If those 3 end up being gone by the time the Bills pick then we probably fill in holes at other positions and potentially take a shot at a day 2 or 3 developmental quarterback as you stated. But I don't believe the Bills would be consider that mid round quarterback to be the leader of the franchise, at least not at this time, and they would likely be disappointed with not having obtained one of the quarterbacks they believed were franchise worthy. 

 

I have to think that the Bills will have all bases covered heading into the draft. If Tyrod is released and the Bills sign a marginal FA quarterback then we know for sure the Bills will be targeting a first round QB. And if that is the case they will have their rankings and what price they would be willing to pay for each of them. If Darnold slips past Browns, the Bills will probably try to make a move for him if the price is reasonable enough. If they can't, then they probably wait and  would be more likely to move up a few slots to secure Rudolph. It might be too risky to try and let Rudolph fall to 21 and if he is drafted by another team the Bills would be shut out of the quarterbacks that are a fit for them (I'm assuming Allen would be going in the top 10 as well). 

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

If they can't, then they probably wait and  would be more likely to move up a few slots to secure Rudolph. It might be too risky to try and let Rudolph fall to 21 and if he is drafted by another team the Bills would be shut out of the quarterbacks that are a fit for them (I'm assuming Allen would be going in the top 10 as well). 

If the Bills trade up for Rudolph, I'm going to need a new tv.