Playing Sherlock Holmes, what QB will the Bills draft? UPDATED

[Lfod]

2 hours ago, racketmaster said:

That's possible but I truly don't believe that drafting a mid round qb will be the plan heading into the draft. Beane slipped somewhat when stating that he had seen all the quarterbacks that matter and that those were the ones projected to go in the first round. The plan is to identify and draft a franchise qb in the first round this year, but with so many other teams also looking for quarterbacks who are ahead of the Bills, that plan could be derailed. Of the top 6 quarterbacks, the Bills probably would be comfortable taking 3 of them in the first round as outlined above. If those 3 end up being gone by the time the Bills pick then we probably fill in holes at other positions and potentially take a shot at a day 2 or 3 developmental quarterback as you stated. But I don't believe the Bills would be consider that mid round quarterback to be the leader of the franchise, at least not at this time, and they would likely be disappointed with not having obtained one of the quarterbacks they believed were franchise worthy. 

 

I have to think that the Bills will have all bases covered heading into the draft. If Tyrod is released and the Bills sign a marginal FA quarterback then we know for sure the Bills will be targeting a first round QB. And if that is the case they will have their rankings and what price they would be willing to pay for each of them. If Darnold slips past Browns, the Bills will probably try to make a move for him if the price is reasonable enough. If they can't, then they probably wait and  would be more likely to move up a few slots to secure Rudolph. It might be too risky to try and let Rudolph fall to 21 and if he is drafted by another team the Bills would be shut out of the quarterbacks that are a fit for them (I'm assuming Allen would be going in the top 10 as well). 

I wouldn't mind them taking a very serious shot at a cost. I wouldn't even hate them if that took that serious shot if ended up costing them. I do think that QB is the important position. I don't think a good QB without a good system and plan around him is 100% gonna change a team into a contender, but I do respect how important of a position it is. 

 

As for what I think they really do I am not sure. I understand that coming into the team the new staff took a conservative approach. I'm sure they attempted to do the best with what that had situation. I'm just not sure if they will take little steps like they have been or actually firing off all the ammunition to land that QB of the future. Obviously better to draft one and mold them instead of searching free agency in my opinion. I'd like our franchise QB to be raised in Buffalo.

 

I just see them having to sacrifice getting help for next season from the draft for something that won't be immediately next season. Rookie QBs have started early and worked but you know what I mean. I'm ok with them doing that, I just wondering how committed they are. I haven't ruled anything out.

 

I'm just leaning twords the thought they may try to do a balancing act instead of taking the plunge. I'm definitely curious about it. Leaning into the playoffs counted for me. It was at least an inch past what it's been. It's a good sign of things to come. I really hope we have landed a front office that can run a system that can actually last. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Lfod

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Mike White  W. Kentucky is my guess  as a guy not at the top of the list. I have 3 games of his recorded but the defenses are so bad in CUSA that who knows if he is REAL or not

[SoCal Deek]

What?  The Bills might be drafting a QB?  OMG!  Why didn't I think to start a thread on this topic.

[Best Player Available]

23 hours ago, BobChalmers said:

 

Did you really need to paste the entire OP to make that point?   

 

 

23 hours ago, BobChalmers said:

 

Did you really need to paste the entire OP to make that point?   

Yep really did. This is a blog, not a book of the month club.

So..........

[transplantbillsfan]

This is long... I'll read it later... but I really, really hope your conclusion isn't that Allen is the best fit for this team 

 

If we draft Allen, he absolutely can't see the field in year 1.  We'll almost certainly be keeping TT at that point.

[reddogblitz]

My prediction is we pick Luke Falk with 21 or maybe in round 2.  I'm thinking we'll opt to use the picks our selves and take a QB that falls that we like.  Falk is a very accurate pocket passer that threw for a ton of yards and TDs in college.  I'm thinking he would be a good process guy for Coach McDermott.  Ride the pine behind Hotrod for 2018. Unleash a pocket passing attack which is what Beane says he wants.

[racketmaster]

15 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

My prediction is we pick Luke Falk with 21 or maybe in round 2.  I'm thinking we'll opt to use the picks our selves and take a QB that falls that we like.  Falk is a very accurate pocket passer that threw for a ton of yards and TDs in college.  I'm thinking he would be a good process guy for Coach McDermott.  Ride the pine behind Hotrod for 2018. Unleash a pocket passing attack which is what Beane says he wants.

I did not give serious consideration to Falk being the quarterback the Bills want to target but you could be right. If the scouting list of games is to be believed then Beane would have attended 2 of Falk’s games this year, which would be a good sign that the Bills have some interest in him. I did read from Matt Miller that at least one anonymous scout in the fall thought Falk had some potential to be a first round pick. I have mostly seen him projected in rounds 2-5 but maybe the Bills are one of the teams that are really high on him. He does have some potential and this year’s list of quarterbacks is pretty deep. 

[reddogblitz]

Just now, racketmaster said:

I did not give serious consideration to Falk being the quarterback the Bills want to target but you could be right. If the scouting list of games is to be believed then Beane would have attended 2 of Falk’s games this year, which would be a good sign that the Bills have some interest in him. I did read from Matt Miller that at least one anonymous scout in the fall thought Falk had some potential to be a first round pick. I have mostly seen him projected in rounds 2-5 but maybe the Bills are one of the teams that are really high on him. He does have some potential and this year’s list of quarterbacks is pretty deep. 

 

21 may be too high.  But I could definitely see round 2.  You can't wait too long on these guys as we well know with the Russell Wilson/TJ Graham debacle.  A no frills accurate pocket passer may be just what we need.  

[Chuck Wagon]

Absent one of Darnold / Rosen / Allen / Mayfield falling to 21, I really hope they don't go for a qb if they stay put.  I just don't see it with Rudolph, guy is Bryce Petty, another guy people talked up as a borderline 1st / 2nd rounder who actually went in round 4.  Jackson I could go for but 21 does feel slightly early.  Mike White / Luke Falk / Lauletta etc are fine as a 4th round pick, but day 2 people are talking themselves into things.

 

I also don't see how anyone can say there's a preference towards seniors with our braintrust.  They took a wildcard late in Peterman, but that was clearly in wildcard territory.

[billsredneck1]

i'm absolutely fine if they take rudolph in the 1st. if they get vita vea, a good lb or edge rusher and the d takes even a minor  step up....and our receivers are healthy...with hopefully a speedster addition, i am fine with starting nate and getting mason acclimated. if we get the front 4 a boost and the rec. corp in tact, nate will get us 10-6 no problem.

 

the days of 3 point scoring games are finally gone. ity's gonn a be a great year!

[macaroni]

59 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

I also don't see how anyone can say there's a preference towards seniors with our braintrust.  They took a wildcard late in Peterman, but that was clearly in wildcard territory.

 

 

If memory serves me right ... and I may be wrong because I'm old and forget a lot of things ... I believe all six of our draft choices last year were seniors.

[WideRightRevenge]

10 hours ago, frostbitmic said:

I keep reading that the Bills love Darnold and Rosen so I believe that those two are smokescreens. I also don't believe the Bills will use up the draft capital they have to make a move for anyone.

 

If Rudolph is available when the Bills pick I think it's a 90% chance they take him.

If he is gone by our pick I think there will be a 50% chance they take Jackson.

If they pass on a QB in the first round I think there's a 75% chance they take Luke Falk or Mike White in the 2nd round.

 

Passing on a QB in this draft wouldn't shock me either.

Mike White please 

[transplantbillsfan]

I've been on record as wanting Darnold, Mayfield and Rudolph, so I guess 2/3 ain't bad.

 

God please no to Allen!!!

[GreggTX]

I suspect it will be Rudolph or Jackson. Jackson has accuracy issues related to impatience. He rely's on arm strength and doesn't always get set before throwing. If that can be corrected, look out because he has everything else and can always add a few pounds. Fixing accuracy/footwork can be a thorny problem, though.

 

From what I've read, Rudolph will be a good but not great NFL QB. He is pro ready, though. At least that's what I've read.

 

I don't want to see us squander a ton of picks for Rosen. Too many question marks.

 

All I know about Allen is that he only hit 53% of his passes. That's a major red flag.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

On 2/15/2018 at 4:53 PM, machine gun kelly said:

To the OP, if you can’t shorten up you’re post, a lot of people. Will not read it. I made the same mistake when I was new to TBD.

 

I read the whole thing, because it was well thought out and well intentioned. Good job and analysis. I don't mind long posts if they are written well and provide insight and research and this man obviously did his. Thanks for posting.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

13 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 Mike White / Luke Falk / Lauletta etc are fine as a 4th round pick, but day 2 people are talking themselves into things.

 

I can't agree. If any of these three are identified as a potential franchise QB, you take them in the 3rd. We blew it 2x waiting until the 4th. When Russel Wilson was available in the 3rd, I swore we were trading up to get him. BUT NO!! T.J F'king Graham cracker. Then again, Prescott was sitting there and we missed.  If the Bills really like one of these guys, then make it happen and don't lose out.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

My prediction is we pick Luke Falk with 21 or maybe in round 2.  I'm thinking we'll opt to use the picks our selves and take a QB that falls that we like.  Falk is a very accurate pocket passer that threw for a ton of yards and TDs in college.  I'm thinking he would be a good process guy for Coach McDermott.  Ride the pine behind Hotrod for 2018. Unleash a pocket passing attack which is what Beane says he wants.

I bet u what u want u can find him in the 5th rd or later

[billspro]

I think it will be Mike White in the second. 

 

I don't think they will take Rudolph with the 21st or 22nd, but if he fall to the second he will be in play as well. 

 

I could see us trading up for Mayfield if he falls out of the top six. 

 

I don't think Rosen or Allen are on the Bills radar. 

2 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

 

I can't agree. If any of these three are identified as a potential franchise QB, you take them in the 3rd. We blew it 2x waiting until the 4th. When Russel Wilson was available in the 3rd, I swore we were trading up to get him. BUT NO!! T.J F'king Graham cracker. Then again, Prescott was sitting there and we missed.  If the Bills really like one of these guys, then make it happen and don't lose out.

 

I agree, we all get way to caught up in media analysis. If a QB has some franchise traits pull the trigger, there is no reason to wait for value at the QB position in the draft. 

[#34fan]

On ‎2‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 1:37 PM, racketmaster said:

 

DARNOLD: He appears to fit the character attributes the organization is looking for in a quarterback. Work ethic and coachable. No real off the field issues and no concerns from teammates and coaches that have been made public. Darnold also fits the physical attributes Beane appears to be looking for in a quarterback.

 

 

Can a NFL helmet fit on that Frankenstein, block-head of his?

[racketmaster]

UPDATED PORTION 4/10/18:

We are almost 2 weeks away from the draft now and things are starting to become a little clearer. What we know: (1) Bills are drafting a QB in round 1 and (2) Bills prefer a big, strong, competitive, dedicated, at least some mobile qb but one that is a consistent pocket passer. 

 

Who are the top candidates in round 1? The answer is still the same (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson and Rudolph). And of the top 6, I think we can eliminate 2 of them, Jackson and Allen. Why? Allen has all the physical attributes the Bills are looking for and has excellent character as well. But it is clear that they Bills have not spent much time on Allen and they must be bothered by his pocket presence, accuracy and decision-making. If the updated version of Dean Kindig's (scouting the Bills scouts) is correct, then the Bills attended the following games of the top 6: Darnold (3), Rosen (2). Mayfield (2), Rudolph (2), Jackson (1) and Allen (0). This is a bit of a change as it had been reported previously that the Bills attended 1 of Allen's games. But 1 or none, still shows the Bills overall lack of interest in Allen. A few weeks ago, the Allen and Buffalo loves him rumors started circulating around the draft community and it appeared that Bills scouts were deliberately putting that information out there. To me, it was an obvious smokescreen. Maybe the Bills had some interest in Allen but not in the top half of round 1 where he would need to be selected. It could also be that the Bills know the Browns want Allen and there is nothing they can do with them at #1 and #4. Whatever, the case may be the Bills have not shown enough interest in Allen to lead me to believe they would risk trading a bunch of assets to move up and get him.

 

Jackson is the other qb we can eliminate from contention. As stated in the original post, Jackson is not a fit for what the Bills are looking for and nothing has changed since that time (if anything it is even more obvious). They have moved on from Tyrod and the Bills brass have not had the extensive meetings they have had with the other top candidates. Whether  that is due to lack of interest on the Bills part or scheduling issues with Jackson's mother being his agent. In any case, the Bills attended only 1 of Jackson's games live. And if there is a candidate that the Bills would want to test on the whiteboard and through watching extensive film with, it is Jackson. It has been reported that Jackson did not impress in interviews at the combine and his 13 wonderlic score did him no favors. Jackson could end up being the most productive qb of the bunch (at least for the first few years) but it is extremely unlikely that it will be with the Bills. They want a consistent pocket passing qb (Bills envision a long term answer at qb and they see long term success coming from consistent pocket passers). That is not Jackson's game as he relies far too much on his legs. I can't emphasize this enough, the Bills are not purposely avoiding Jackson in order to fake other teams out. This is an extremely important decision and they are not drafting a qb without having gone through extensive whiteboard, interviews and film study with the candidates. They have had short interviews with but not the extensive ones. This regime values information and will want to know virtually everything about the player they select.

 

Who does it leave: Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield and Rudolph. 

I think there is little doubt at this point that Buffalo's top choice would be Darnold. They loved him in the fall and attended 3 of his games (more than any other qb). As stated in the original post, Darnold checks all the boxes of what the Bills are looking for in a qb. The only problem is, how do the Bills get to 1 or 2 because that is the only way they would be able to draft him. The Bills are visiting with Darnold this week and like others I do not believe they would be wasting their time meeting with him if they did not have some plan to trade up. And I do believe the Bills would be willing to pay a hefty price for Darnold. The question will be if they can get Cleveland of the Giants to bite. I believe the reports that the Giants only want Darnold and would otherwise take a player at another position. And if that is the case, the Bills won't be able to trade with the Giants or would have to significantly overpay in order to get the Giants to move off Darnold. It might be more possible that the Bills get a deal with Cleveland because I do believe the many reports that they love Allen. I believe Cleveland is looking for ways to get Allen but also get some extra picks out of the deal (it would help them justify taking Allen over Darnold if they could get extra assets). Ideally, they probably want the Giants to pay them a second and third to move up to #1. I think they have been trying to get Gettleman to pay assets to move up 1 spot but they have gotten no where so far. Maybe the Bills are just being used to get the Giants to move (similar to the Colts using the Bills to get the Jets or Denver to move up). But in any case the Bills have some visions of a possible move up to the top spot. In the end, Bills push really hard to get up to the #1 or #2 spot but probably can't close deal (25% chance they get this deal). 

 

Rosen/ Mayfield: These 2 players are the hardest to gauge exactly how much the Bills like them. Bills have obvious interest in them both (attended 2 games a piece and have had extensive meetings and visits with both). But both qbs have enough concerns that the Bills will not trade up inside the top 3 to get them. Rosen's character concerns may have been a little overblown in the initial draft process but they are still a concern (His former HC is taking another qb #1 over him and describing Rosen as a typical millennial). Most concerning are Rosen's injuries (especially the concussions). Durability and availability are a high priority for franchise qbs. Mayfield has some character concerns (arrest tape, at time overly cocky) and this will bother the Bills some. Also, he does not have ideal size for the position and this is also important to this regime. That said, the Bills are spending a lot of time on them. Which one os left after pick 3 will depend on who the Jets like. It is at this spot (picks 4 thru 11) that the Bills might consider trading up for either Rosen or Mayfield. However, I don't think the Bills are in love with the entire package for either of these players. For that reason, I believe the Bills would be outbid by other teams that may be in "love" with Mayfield or Rosen (maybe Arizona, Miami, or Denver). For this reason, I see the chance of selecting Rosen or Mayfield as about 15%. Again, this does not mean that they are bad qb options, but it is all about "fit" and "DNA" and I don't think either player is a perfect match for the Bills. 

 

Rudolph: This leaves the last of the top 6 and the player most likely to be left out of the discussion by pundits when discussing the top qbs. Rudolph has been gaining momentum as of late. Many pundits that had Rudolph going in the second round are not thinking he will go in the late first. There are a bunch of teams that have been rumored to like Rudolph (Denver, Washington, Baltimore, New England and Pittsburgh to name a few). It is no surprise that Rudolph has gained momentum as I said before, he will likely kill it during the interview process. You can tell that he has spent a good deal of time around the Manning family as he conducts himself like a Manning. His intangibles will appeal to a lot of team and I firmly believe the Bills are one of those teams. The Bills have definite interest in Rudolph (attended 2 of his games in the fall) and have met extensively with him (most recently with him being in Buffalo this past weekend). Rudolph checks every box the Bills are looking for with the exception of arm strength. There are real concerns about his arm strength but I believe they see it as strong enough. Beane could see Rudolph as his Jake Delhomme (not necessarily the most talented qb but a 12 on a scale of 1-10 for intangibles). And the most important thing, Rudolph will likely be available at 12 and the Bills won't need to give up any assets. Beane loves his picks and he will need to be "all in" on a player to move up and give up that many assets. For that reason, the Bills will most likely get turned away by the Browns and Giants and settle on Rudolph (a player that I believe from a character perspective is the best fit of any of the quarterbacks). I say it is a 60% chance Rudolph gets selected.

 

This is my best guess and the draft can't get here soon enough.