Predict outcomes for the 2018 QB class

[Zerovoltz]

One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections.  (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff) 

 

Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be.

 

Darnold -  HIT.  Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open".  I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL.  

 

Rosen - MISS.  I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone.  Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time.  He is Jay Cutler.  He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner.  He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go.  

 

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy.

 

Lamar Jackson - BUST.  While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower.  He doesn't "win" in the pocket.  He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB.  This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board.  

 

My thoughts on some other notables:

Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen.  I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something.  

Luke Falk. Career backup.  Accurate thrower.  Not a strong NFL arm.  benefited from system he played in.  Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game.

 

I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say.

 

***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in.  If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it.  Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out.  If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it.  .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins.  He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him.  that matters and it's worth paying for.

 

 

 

 

 

[FearLess Price]

Im all in trading up for Mayfield.

 

Would also take Rudolph at 21 but we would need to upgrade the Oline and WR talent. 

[KDIGGZ]

Depends on who takes them.  For example, Rosen on the Browns would be tough to watch but Rosen on the Giants and he would be a top 5 QB in the league.

 

I have them ranked 1) Rosen 2) Darnold 3) Allen 4) Mayfield 5) Jackson 6) Rudolph 7) White

 

Of them, I think 4 will be starters in the NFL.  This is the best QB draft in at least the last 10 yrs, maybe the best since 2004.  If we don't get a QB in this one then shame on us.

[xRUSHx]

IMO

 

Rosen........hit,  franchise QB

Darnold.....hit,  franchise QB

Mayfield....hit,  franchise QB

Rudolph....hit,  franchise QB

 

Allen.....miss.

Reminds me of Cutler type, very hot cold, will sit year one. Even after that year of sitting in the NFL the bust talk comes out after many see first hand his bad games even though his best games are great.

Ok QB but not a franchise QB you can rely on enough to be championship caliber.

 

Jackson....miss.

Has some real nice games running around but injuries because of being a runner first put him out of league. Sits year one. Starts a franchise type QB year 2 but ends out of league by end of 4 on IR.

 

White .....hit,miss.

Will take years before he ever gets a chance to start, could be a big hit after 2-3 years of development to end up a franchise worthy QB if all goes well for him.

 

Falk...... hit,miss.

Another guy that needs to sit 2-3 years to see what you have. Big development QBs are tough to call. Miss because of sitting so long for team drafting him but hit to second team.

 

Lauletta and Litton..... hit, miss

Development type, sit for first team good for second team as a backup or possible starter if all goes well for them.

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by xRUSHx

[FearLess Price]

2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

Depends on who takes them.  For example, Rosen on the Browns would be tough to watch but Rosen on the Giants and he would be a top 5 QB in the league.

 

I have them ranked 1) Rosen 2) Darnold 3) Allen 4) Mayfield 5) Jackson 6) Rudolph 7) White

 

Of them, I think 4 will be starters in the NFL.  This is the best QB draft in at least the last 10 yrs, maybe the best since 2004.  If we don't get a QB in this one then shame on us.

 

Really allen over mayfield...really?

 

Other than that the list is cool

 

Allen is gonna need 2 years on the bench to fix that inconsistent accuracy.

 

Mayfield can start week 1.

 

Mayfield = new brees

Allen = new EJ or Paxton Lynch

[KDIGGZ]

13 minutes ago, FearLess Price said:

 

Really allen over mayfield...really?

 

Other than that the list is cool

 

Allen is gonna need 2 years on the bench to fix that inconsistent accuracy.

 

Mayfield can start week 1.

 

Mayfield = new brees

Allen = new EJ or Paxton Lynch

We will see! Both polarizing players

[FearLess Price]

5 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

We will see! Both polarizing players

 

Most def. The draft cant come soon enough. Its gonna be a really long 2 months!

[DCOrange]

It's hard to say without knowing where they'll land, but my rankings in the order in which I'd take them are:

 

1. Lamar

2. Darnold

3. Allen

4. Mayfield

5. Rosen

6. Lauletta

7. Luke Falk

8. Mason Rudolph

9. Mike White

10. Chase Litton

 

If I rated them in terms of how confident I am that they pan out, I'd go with:

 

1. Darnold

2. Lamar

3. Rosen

4. Mayfield

5. Lauletta

6. Allen

7. Falk

8. Rudolph

9. White

10. Litton

 

The main difference being that I think Allen is a risky, but worthwhile pick.

[BuffaloHokie13]

9 minutes ago, FearLess Price said:

Most def. The draft cant come soon enough. Its gonna be a really long 2 months!

Things will get fun in a few weeks. Combine starts the 27th of February. Teams & Agents will be there, rumors with traction will begin to come out.

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Things will get fun in a few weeks. Combine starts the 27th of February. Teams & Agents will be there, rumors with traction will begin to come out.

Yep. One of my favorite times of the year.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Hits: Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold 

 

Misses: Allen ,Jackson, Rudolph

 

[frostbitmic]

Mayfield = Great leader and solid player, will be the best of this class

Rosen = Seems like Cutler 2.0. He'll be good but inconsistent... Will his teammates like him and play for him ?

Jackson = Strong runner, improving passer, he'll be a Russell Wilson type QB

Darnold = Strong arm but a turnover machine. He'll throw a lot of TDs and a lot of picks, fumbles the ball way too much.

Allen = Great size and strong arm, if he can improve his accuracy he'll be good, if he can't he won't.

Rudolph = Should have a decent career

 

 

Falk, White, Lauletta = career backups

[Jay_Fixit]

Darnold - Franchise QB

Mayfield - Franchise QB

Rosen - Good NFL starter

Jackson - Average starter/Backup

Rudolph - Average starter/Backup

Allen - Bust who will keep getting opportunities due to his talent and draft position.

 

 

As for you being a Chiefs fan, I don’t think you have your QB at all. I think Mahomes is going to be a disaster.

[KGun12TD]

Lauletta will be the next great QB!

[xRUSHx]

10 minutes ago, KGun12TD said:

Lauletta will be the next great QB!

I like him as well but great ? He will be a late bloomer in the NFL IMO so you need him to sit around a long while to capitalize on him to be real good but I'm not sold on great.

Edited February 8, 2018 by xRUSHx

[FearLess Price]

8 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

I like him as well but great ? He will be a late bloomer in the NFL IMO so you need him to sit around a long while to capitalize on him to be real good but I'm not sold on great.

 

Right. One solid prime time performance and all the hype blows up.

 

Cardale Jones had a few playoff preformances like that and we know how that turned out.

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, xRUSHx said:

IMO

 

Rosen........hit,  franchise QB

Darnold.....hit,  franchise QB

Mayfield....hit,  franchise QB

Rudolph....hit,  franchise QB

 

Allen.....miss.

Reminds me of Cutler type, very hot cold, will sit year one. Even after that year of sitting in the NFL the bust talk comes out after many see first hand his bad games even though his best games are great.

Ok QB but not a franchise QB you can rely on enough to be championship caliber.

 

Jackson....miss.

Has some real nice games running around but injuries because of being a runner first put him out of league. Sits year one. Starts a franchise type QB year 2 but ends out of league by end of 4 on IR.

 

White .....hit,miss.

Will take years before he ever gets a chance to start, could be a big hit after 2-3 years of development to end up a franchise worthy QB if all goes well for him.

 

Falk...... hit,miss.

Another guy that needs to sit 2-3 years to see what you have. Big development QBs are tough to call. Miss because of sitting so long for team drafting him but hit to second team.

 

Lauletta and Litton..... hit, miss

Development type, sit for first team good for second team as a backup or possible starter if all goes well for them.

 

 

This class isn't nearly as good as 1983 or 2004, the only two drafts since the merger to produce even three franchise QBs.  IMO there's likely to be 1 franchise QB and maybe a decent starter who ranks maybe 10-15 among starting QBs ... that's about what comes out of most drafts whether there's 2 first round QBs or 4 first round QBs.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

8 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections.  (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff) 

 

Josh Allen - BUST.  This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate.  He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate.  Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB.  It's not 1977 anymore.  You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS.  That's what Allen will be. Wondering if he will end up this year's Ryan Mallett. While he is more talents I believe than Mallett, I think for him it will depend on where he goes and what he's expected to do early in his career. He winds up where he's expected to start early and doesn't have a great QB mentor/coach...BUST. He goes to the Giants where he can sit a couple years and learn from Manning/Shurmer...HIT.

 

Darnold -  HIT.  Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open".  I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL.  Definitely has potential. Does have the "USC QB" stink on him, but I think he will be a solid starter in the NFL. 

 

Rosen - MISS.  I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone.  Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time.  He is Jay Cutler.  He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner.  He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go.  I like the Cutler comparison. I do think he has the potential to be a better version of Cutler. He will be a starter for a long time. He should be good, yet unspectacular.

 

Mayfield - HIT.  Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs.  His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win.  The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys.  Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED.  He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter.  Reps help.  He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs.  makes plays.  So what he is 6'1.  In this class, he is my no.1 guy. The more I see if Mayfield the more I like him. Big future for this kid. I think he will be the most successful in this class. 

 

Lamar Jackson - BUST.  While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower.  He doesn't "win" in the pocket.  He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB.  This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board.  He's a human highlight reel. I think he may be hitting the NFL at the right time as I think he could run an RPO offense well. That said he's a great athlete and great athletes don't always make the best QBs. He will flash but ultimately I think he's destined to be a fringe starter.

 

My thoughts on some other notables:

Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen.  I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something.  He could be good, and wouldn't mind him in Buffalo, just not in the 1st round. I'd place him at the head of the 2nd their guys. An Andy Dalton career is not out of the question...but a JP Losman type career is certainly possible.

Luke Falk. Career backup.  Accurate thrower.  Not a strong NFL arm.  benefited from system he played in.  Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game. Like him. Don't see greatness there though. Chad Pennington spring to mind.

 

I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say.

 

***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in.  If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it.  Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out.  If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it.  .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins.  He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him.  that matters and it's worth paying for.

 

 

 

 

 

First off, I won't hold being a Chief fan against ya. Always nice when civil fans of other teams want to discuss the thing we have in common...football. 

 

Second, congrats (and you're welcome) on Mahomes. I think he's going to be solid. 

 

Third, if you can...what's your opinion on how Ragland looked for you guys this year? I really liked him, but he just didn't fit the defense here.

 

My Predictions are listed above.

[whatdrought]

Rosen- Miss: probably a decent couple of years, but never elite status. Struggles with injuries due to lack of mobility and loses interest in the game. 

Darnold- Meh: Marginal starter for several years, can look good with a good team around him, struggles when he has to carry the weight. 

Allen- Hit: If he goes to the right team, he'll be impressive early but will make boneheaded throws. Good coaching will have him at a high level in 2years. 

Mayfield- Hit: Makes "what did I just see" plays regularly and carries an average team to the playoffs in his rookie year. 

Jackson- Short term hit, Long term miss: will dazzle the league like these athletic types do, but will not sustain success. 

Rudolph- Hit: He's a hit only because he falls to the second round and ends up looking good for the value (think Andy Dalton). Struggles beating teams across the middle and makes too many risky throws. 

[Zerovoltz]

1 hour ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

First off, I won't hold being a Chief fan against ya. Always nice when civil fans of other teams want to discuss the thing we have in common...football. 

 

Second, congrats (and you're welcome) on Mahomes. I think he's going to be solid. 

 

Third, if you can...what's your opinion on how Ragland looked for you guys this year? I really liked him, but he just didn't fit the defense here.

 

My Predictions are listed above.

 

That trade is viewed as "good" so far.  Ragland of course was still coming of the injury when he got here (to KC) but got better as season progressed.  Had some moments where he flashed, and we could see the potential.  We anticipate that he will take a step forward in 2018.  It would be a dissapointment if the Ragland we saw this year, is the same one all of next year.  We can see why he was a high draft pick as he is noticably faster then what we (KC) had on the field with him....2018 makes or breaks the trade.  Liked what we saw..need to see more.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Zerovotlz