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In-Depth Breakdown of Lamar Jackson by Eliot Crist

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1 minute ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Thats one heluva adjustment for a 68% passer to get to 81.5%

Yeah, I'd like to see the raw numbers used. his numbers didn't quite match mine.

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10 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Thats one heluva adjustment for a 68% passer to get to 81.5%

 

Yeah, I think after Lamar, nobody was impacted as much by drops as Mayfield was in terms of drop %.

8 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Yeah, I'd like to see the raw numbers used. his numbers didn't quite match mine.

 

I literally just took the numbers straight from PFF; I didn't make adjustments in terms of the overall adjusted completion %. I also think I threw that together before the bowl games.

 

Edit: PFF has his adjusted completion percentage at 82.5% now.

Edited by DCOrange

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5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yeah, I think after Lamar, nobody was impacted as much by drops as Mayfield was in terms of drop %.

Jackson: 12.04%

Rosen: 11.01%

Mayfield: 9.49%

Rudolph: 9.15%

Allen: 7.84%

Darnold: 6.81%

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1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Jackson: 12.04%

Rosen: 11.01%

Mayfield: 9.49%

Rudolph: 9.15%

Allen: 7.84%

Darnold: 6.81%

 

According to PFF:

 

Lamar: 8.5%

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Allen: 4.8%

Darnold: 4.3%

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Just now, DCOrange said:

 

According to PFF:

 

Lamar: 8.5%

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Allen: 4.8%

Darnold: 4.3%

And this is why Drops aren't an official stat.

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Jackson: 12.04%

Rosen: 11.01%

Mayfield: 9.49%

Rudolph: 9.15%

Allen: 7.84%

Darnold: 6.81%

 

47 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

According to PFF:

 

Lamar: 8.5%

Mayfield: 8.0%

Rosen: 7.5%

Rudolph: 6.6%

Allen: 4.8%

Darnold: 4.3%

 

What I love about this is the wildly different numbers that come to the same conclusion.

 

The order is exactly the same.

 

Jackson was most negatively impacted by his WRs dropping balls, which should boost his stock up a little.

 

Darnold was least negatively impacted by his WRs dropping balls, which, given his already kinda concerning completion %, might add to whatever red flags there are about him.

 

45 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

And this is why Drops aren't an official stat.

 

Absolutely.  But it's also why it's good for one set of eyes to look across the board at subjective things like drops so that you have a fairly accurate "ranking" at least of the QBs.

 

Whoever evaluated the drops from these 2 separate places had the exact same order with just Rosen and Mayfield flip-flopped, but still within one spot of each other.

 

I think that's interesting.

 

Edited by transplantbillsfan
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To all in this thread comparing Jackson/Watson...Let me remind you, Watson still has done nothing in the NFL. Did he play like 5 games really well? Absolutely, so did Trent Edwards. I would suggest waiting to see how he actually develops as a QB before labelling him a success or not/labelling yourself correct or not 

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8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Last year at this time I opined on here that if you like Dak Prescott, Deshaun does everything that he does only better. Got crushed for that. While I know some people did like Watson, I distinctly remember many who wanted nothing to do with him for a lot of the reasons stated here about Lamar. 

 

With the new board i don’t think we can pull threads from last year but it would be “freezing cold take” City.

 

You wouldn't find me among them.  I wanted the Bills to draft Watson and it wasn't for his measurables, but rather the eye test.  You could plain "see it" with Deshaun.  It was a no brainer.

 

I will forever hold Beane and McDermott accountable for that one.

 

 

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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

What I love about this is the wildly different numbers that come to the same conclusion.

 

The order is exactly the same.

 

Jackson was most negatively impacted by his WRs dropping balls, which should boost his stock up a little.

 

Darnold was least negatively impacted by his WRs dropping balls, which, given his already kinda concerning completion %, might add to whatever red flags there are about him.

 

 

Absolutely.  But it's also why it's good for one set of eyes to look across the board at subjective things like drops so that you have a fairly accurate "ranking" at least of the QBs.

 

Whoever evaluated the drops from these 2 separate places had the exact same order with just Rosen and Mayfield flip-flopped, but still within one spot of each other.

 

I think that's interesting.

 

It’s subjective. I take it as a QB who’s passes weren’t as catchable as the others. Again, an easy bubble screen where a throw is high/low but the receiver “drops” it can be factored in here. It’s really just a poor throw.

 

It’s a “stat” that can be manipulated to help an argument.

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9 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Last year at this time I opined on here that if you like Dak Prescott, Deshaun does everything that he does only better. Got crushed for that. While I know some people did like Watson, I distinctly remember many who wanted nothing to do with him for a lot of the reasons stated here about Lamar. 

 

With the new board i don’t think we can pull threads from last year but it would be “freezing cold take” City.

 

I always thought you nailed what happened with Watson Yolo. People got kinda bored of his consistent excellence at the college level and started to pick at things that weren't there while Trubisky and Mahomes seemed shiney and new. A lot of people at the end of 2015 had Watson as their #1 overall player going into 2016. He had a slow first 4 games and then was brilliant in 2016 including in the playoffs and suddenly some of the same people were saying "could slip to round 2". 

 

Mental. 

3 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

To all in this thread comparing Jackson/Watson...Let me remind you, Watson still has done nothing in the NFL. Did he play like 5 games really well? Absolutely, so did Trent Edwards. I would suggest waiting to see how he actually develops as a QB before labelling him a success or not/labelling yourself correct or not 

 

Actually he has "done something". He threw for more TD passes in his first 7 games in the NFL than anyone in the history of the league. Is that enough to give him and MVP and a Gold Jacket.... no. But it is not "nothing" and it certainly isn't Trent Edwards worthy. 

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On 2/1/2018 at 2:49 PM, Spiderweb said:

OMG... Avoid this possibility at all costs. After watching him the past two years ( I live in the Louisville area) we would be making yet another big mistake. He'll bring some running ability but he's slower than Taylor. Has a published college time of 4.78. He's not like Taylor in one area though, he has no problem turning the ball over. Tebow / Andre Ware II.

What the heck are you talking about. he ran a 4.42... 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://thespun.com/college-football/lamar-jackson-ran-a-blazing-time-in-the-40-yard-dash/amp&ved=2ahUKEwjS49bHpY7ZAhWSjlkKHU_9AHMQFjAEegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw2WZc8wSoiQUv0WCIpasBzh&ampcf=1

This article says 4.34... use Google and tell me where you saw 4.78. You can watch him play and know there is no way in this universe where he is that slow. 

On 2/1/2018 at 4:33 PM, Billschinatown said:

 

Lol. You've seen Tyrod play right ?

What about Vick. Tyrod is quicksand compared to Vick 

On 2/1/2018 at 4:56 PM, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

There is one comparison for Jackson, and no it's not because he's black, and that person is Michael Vick.  The play a lot alike except in my opinion, Vick was a more accurate passer.  I know Jackson is a polarizing prospect, I fall on side of being totally against the Bills drafting him.

I respect this. I dont know who to want anymore. but i wouldn't be against it at 21 or 22

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On 2/1/2018 at 2:52 PM, DCOrange said:

 

No effing chance that Lamar runs a 4.78.

He doesn't...Acording to this he ran a 4.34 and another article said he ran a 4.42

 

That's faster than Sammy Watkins...

 

 

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/louisville/2017/03/09/lamar-jackson-runs-40-yard-dash/98930194/

On 2/2/2018 at 6:07 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I always thought you nailed what happened with Watson Yolo. People got kinda bored of his consistent excellence at the college level and started to pick at things that weren't there while Trubisky and Mahomes seemed shiney and new. A lot of people at the end of 2015 had Watson as their #1 overall player going into 2016. He had a slow first 4 games and then was brilliant in 2016 including in the playoffs and suddenly some of the same people were saying "could slip to round 2". 

 

Mental. 

 

Actually he has "done something". He threw for more TD passes in his first 7 games in the NFL than anyone in the history of the league. Is that enough to give him and MVP and a Gold Jacket.... no. But it is not "nothing" and it certainly isn't Trent Edwards worthy. 

 

He also took a Houston team that had trouble scoring 17 points a game with Savage at QB and had them scoring 35+ every game and almost outdueled Brady...

 

Edited by matter2003

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I like how he stated that running QBs don't get hurt yet Watson missed most of the season because of a rollout play that blew his knee out.  

On 2/1/2018 at 2:07 PM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Here's the accompanying  write up.

 

https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/1/25/16931282/getting-to-know-the-2018-qb-class-lamar-jackson

 

If football fans could concoct a recipe with all of the things they demand in a franchise signal caller, they would call out the usual tropes.

 

“Big arm”.

 

“Accurate”.

 

“Throws with anticipation”.

 

“Understands defensive concepts.”..........“Pocket Presence.” .......“From Northeast Ohio and owns a dozen old Bernie Kosar jerseys”

They don’t know it, but they’re describing Lamar Jackson, the standout former Heisman trophy winner who absolutely obliterated and terrorized college defenses for the last two years.

 

…..except for the Bernie Kosar jersey thing. On the rest, hear me out.

 

The Summary:

To understand Lamar Jackson, and the type of player he is, NFL fans need to forget the cliches. The myth of durability in running quarterbacks is a thing of the past, as they’ve determined (WITH SCIENCE) that guys get injured just as frequently from the pocket as they do on the run. The “dual threat” language quarterbacks are pinned with, that is a backhanded way of saying, “Can’t be trusted executing a passing offense,” was obliterated by Deshaun Watson as he thrashed the adage and 2017 NFL defenses. “Skinny knees, won’t survive an AFCN winter” is an epithet on the tombstones of enormous, physically gifted, prototypical Browns QBs of the past as well as the small ones. Understand that Lamar Jackson defies the cliches, and is twice the passer casual NFL fans think he is.

 

Also, understand that Jackson will face the exact same litany of questions that Deshaun faced about his game, and is a better prospect in every respect.

I like how he mentioned that the running QB durability thing is a myth yet Watson missed most of the season due to a blown knee from a rollout play, Aaron Rodgers who runs a lot for a QB got hurt running, Andrew Luck got hurt running and he ran a lot...am I missing something.  Luck and Rodgers ran the ball way more than a lot of fans think.  They are far from in the pocket passers, they take off with their feet a lot.  My question with Jackson is can he take a hit in the pocket.  It will happen.  Can he stand in the pocket under pressure make the big throw and take the hit and get right back up or will he just take off running every time he gets a little pressure? I think he needs to add some weight before he can stand in the pocket and take a hit in the NFL.  JMO

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4 hours ago, Buffalo30 said:

I like how he stated that running QBs don't get hurt yet Watson missed most of the season because of a rollout play that blew his knee out.  

 

Watson's knee was a non contact injury in practice. 

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I’m liking Jackson more with our pick. Allows us to sign some guys in free agency 

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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Watson's knee was a non contact injury in practice. 

Yeah, but he was clearly practicing a rollout. And he'd never have practiced that if he wasn't a running QB.

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On 2/1/2018 at 2:52 PM, Jay_Fixit said:

I hope he meant that Watson was the better prospect in every respect.

 

Yeah - except jacksons probably faster, more athletic/elusive, and has far more arm strength.

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19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Watson's knee was a non contact injury in practice. 

He was still running though instead of in the pocket taking normal dropbacks.  I like the thought of a dual threat QB but this is what can happen on any play with those guys.  This isn't the first time Watson tore his leg up too.  Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz and Rodgers got hurt on running plays.  RG3 was constantly hurt.  Can Jackson slide and protect himself instead of trying to make the extra move that gets him injured?  There's a lot of questions that come along with the dual threat QB that make me hesitant with a guy like Jackson who clearly likes to run a lot.  I obviously with the kid the best but after all of the QB injuries this year, my concerns are heightened for a QB that puts himself in harms way by running a lot.

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Anyone who has watched a significant amount of Jackson plays would not say he is an accurate passer.  He misses a lot of throws and makes the easy ones harder than they have to be.  You can't just throw up clips of his best passes and say he is accurate.  I actually went through and looked at all his games this season.  His stats against good teams are bad and he eats it up against really bad teams.  I had his stats vs teams better than 7-6, at 7-6 & 6-7. and worse than 6-7 worked out and it does not look good for Jackson.  I did it with a pen a paper and don't know where I put then damn thing, possibly recycled it accidentally.  I might do it again but it took awhile.  I just think a lot of people are misinformed about how good of a passer he is.

Edited by K-GunJimKelly12
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On 2/2/2018 at 9:57 AM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

And this is why Drops aren't an official stat.

True. But it was mostly the same order of players, as well as the difference between them. I always thought dropped passes was a dumb stat because football people, be they fans, coaches, players or media, have a huge variation in what constitutes “a drop.” 

 

But if if you’re looking at the same person or entity listing the drops, using the same criterion for all of them, it’s a fairly useful stat. 

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On 2/2/2018 at 2:15 PM, PaattMaann said:

To all in this thread comparing Jackson/Watson...Let me remind you, Watson still has done nothing in the NFL. Did he play like 5 games really well? Absolutely, so did Trent Edwards. I would suggest waiting to see how he actually develops as a QB before labelling him a success or not/labelling yourself correct or not 

 

Just to be clear.  Trent Edwards did nothing remotely close, during his entire career, to what Watson has shown in 5 starts.

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Take it for what it's worth:

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were 8-5 or better (Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Mississippi State) :

 

Record: 0-4  164 attempts/87 completions, Comp % 53%, YPG 293, 5 TD'S AND 7 INT'S

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were 7-6 OR 6-7 (Purdue, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Kentucky) :

 

Record: 4-1  153 attempts/92 completions, Comp % 60%, YPG 255, 9 TD'S AND 1 INT

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were worse than 6-7 ( North Carloina, Kent State, Murray State, Syracuse):

 

Record: 4-0  113 attempts/75 completions, Comp % 66%, YPG 303, 10 TD'S AND 2 INT

 

 

 

For those who are comparing Watson and Jackson in terms of value as prospects, these are Watson's stats in the National Championship game last year against the closest thing you will ever see to an NFL defense in the 2016 Crimson Tide:

 

36-56, 420 yards, 3 TD's and 0 Int's

 

Jackson in his bowl game this year vs Mississippi State was:

 

13-31 171 yards, 2 TD's and 4 Int's

Edited by K-GunJimKelly12
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5 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

Take it for what it's worth:

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were 8-5 or better (Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Mississippi State) :

 

Record: 0-4  164 attempts/87 completions, Comp % 53%, YPG 293, 5 TD'S AND 7 INT'S

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were 7-6 OR 6-7 (Purdue, Boston College, Florida State, Virginia, Kentucky) :

 

Record: 4-1  153 attempts/92 completions, Comp % 60%, YPG 255, 9 TD'S AND 1 INT

 

 

Lamar Jackson 2017 season vs teams that were worse than 6-7 ( North Carloina, Kent State, Murray State, Syracuse):

 

Record: 4-0  113 attempts/75 completions, Comp % 66%, YPG 303, 10 TD'S AND 2 INT

 

 

 

 

No idea what the completion percentages would look like when adjusted for drops, but for what it's worth:

 

Against teams ranked in the top 30 defensively:

55%, 256 passing yards, 127 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 7 TOs

 

Against teams ranked 31-50:

52.3%, 343 passing yards, 127 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 4 TOs

 

Against teams outside the top 50:

64.7%, 279 passing yards, 120 rushing yards, 27 TDs, 4 TOs

 

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