Jump to content

THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - The GM's QB Decision Tree


Shaw66

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think so.  I don't think Smith is any better Cousins, and I don't think he plays the style that McB wants, although admittedly no one knows for sure what they want.   If you believe they like Peterman's style of play, Cousins is a good Peterman, and Smith is a good Taylor.  

 

Plus, Smith won't want to be someone's bridge to a bright young rookie.   That's what he was in KC this year.   He'll want a quick ride to the top.   If Minnesota really is in the market, Smith is perfect for them, and they're perfect for him.  

 

Plus, Smith costs $20 million for 2018, which means you're eating more cap room than if you just keep Taylor.   Granted, Smith is a better QB, by why spend $20 million to get someone who isn't your future.   

 

I don't see these guys using a bandaid approach.  

I think that is a fair assessment of those QBs, other than Cousins is a really good Peterman (and I'm not saying Cousins is really good).  I think the Bills are going to have to pay to keep a dependable guy at QB while they try to identify a young guy, and I don't think Peterman, a Rookie and some bargain bin veteran QB is a good plan. 

 

If they do think Peterman is that guy, I have serious doubts about this staff and the GM.  Peterman may do some things right, but he does a lot wrong - some of that can be attributed to rookie play, but from what I saw some of those things aren't going to change even with good coaching - he lost his technique and made bad decisions under pressure, had a bad feel for the pocket,  and doesn't have a strong enough arm to get away with errant throws.  I'm guessing that the coaching staff likes his ability to throw with anticipation and timing - but sometimes you fall in love with the prospects of a QB that can do what your starter can't do and forget about all of the things your starter does well that you take for granted (well until that guy is an embarrassing turnover machine). Consistency in doing more things right far more times than wrong is what makes the difference between a Hall of Famer and a guy that shouldn't see the field.

 

I get the cost of Tyrod, but Tyrod puts them in a predicament because he was they guy that got the Bills to the first playoff appearance, and I truly do think they appreciate that Tyrod is a professional who works hard, protects the ball, has a good feel for the pocket and has shown in previous seasons that he can make plays.  They also realize he isn't going to be a guy that you can rely upon to bring you back from a big deficit or win a game in crunch time with any frequency.  I am always cautious of getting rid of a guy that is decent without having identified someone better and putting the team in a pickle with no proven commodity at QB.

 

I'm not sure what to expect from Daboll - he wasn't exactly blessed with much talent in Cleveland, Miami or KC in his stints in the NFL, and he was blessed with a plethora of talent in Alabama this past season.  I think his working with Hurts, who has his own limitations, certainly isn't a bad fit for Tyrod, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tyrod part of the team this upcoming year.  I think that is very much in play based on the way McDermott was talking about Tyrod after the season was over and I think it is clear that McDermott saw the OC as the biggest issue.

 

If they can get Bridgewater I'm all for it.  I'm lukewarm on Alex Smith. I think Cousins cost will be prohibitive (thankfully).  All of those guys would cost a good amount. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't want any of the Minnesota guys (bridgewater..how is the knee and stat wise taylor is just as good, Bradford yeah this guy cant even stay healthy, Keenum lightning in a bottle maybe?)

 

Smith interested me but that option is done with the trade

 

The guy I liked coming out of college watching a lot of big ten games is the guy I really hope the back the truck up to make sure they get in Cousins.  They did this for a DE and that didn't work out that great but when a guy who is arguably around top ten you make your move. Now this should not stop the franchise form drafting QB's the same way the Pats do it every  year and they have Brady but if you going to pay for a position QB is it.

 

I only listed the FA way because I think the cost is way too high to move up in the draft and you are sacrificing too much with all the holes the Bills need to address with all the FA's because with one of the older rosters in the league it tells me they need fresh bodies in via the draft so moving up makes no sense.  Not to mention the failure rate of first round QB draft picks

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ILBillsfan said:

I don't want any of the Minnesota guys (bridgewater..how is the knee and stat wise taylor is just as good, Bradford yeah this guy cant even stay healthy, Keenum lightning in a bottle maybe?)

 

Smith interested me but that option is done with the trade

 

The guy I liked coming out of college watching a lot of big ten games is the guy I really hope the back the truck up to make sure they get in Cousins.  They did this for a DE and that didn't work out that great but when a guy who is arguably around top ten you make your move. Now this should not stop the franchise form drafting QB's the same way the Pats do it every  year and they have Brady but if you going to pay for a position QB is it.

 

I only listed the FA way because I think the cost is way too high to move up in the draft and you are sacrificing too much with all the holes the Bills need to address with all the FA's because with one of the older rosters in the league it tells me they need fresh bodies in via the draft so moving up makes no sense.  Not to mention the failure rate of first round QB draft picks

 

It looks exactly the same to me.   I'm going to have to make a big bet somewhere, and I think Cousins is the best bet. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Washington is dumping him for Smith. What are you seeing that Washington isn't?

 

Why not trade for Foles?

You have to read other things I've written at length.    

 

First, there's no way Cousins isn't better than Taylor.   He's a pocket passer with enough mobility as a guy needs these days.   His numbers have been significantly better than Taylor's for three years.   His three-year numbers are top 10 in the league. 

 

Second, he fits the McDermott philosophy.    He's smart, hard working, believes that winning is a process and he's personally dedicated to process.  He's the kind of guy who in a system with five-year continuity will get better each year, because he learns more and more.   

 

Washington is dumping him because he doesn't want to be there.  They mismanaged their relationship with him, and I suspect he's told them he'll listen to their offer but he's certainly going to listen to others.   Translation: if your offer isn't the very best, I'm leaving for someplace that suits me better.   I don't know any of that, but that's my sense.   He's a hard-working midwest guy who isn't at home in east coast bull ****.   I think he wants out.  

 

So it's not so much that Washington doesn't want him, but they aren't willing to invest in a guy who isn't committed to them.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm probably just obtuse - but something said here lit a lamp in my head...

 

Going the FA route or the Draft route is expensive.  Because a QB is expensive.

 

The FA route you are paying cap room for a hope that the guy wasn't a product of a system and can succeed in your system.

The Draft route you are paying in draft capital (to move up) for a hope that a college kid makes the transition (and wasn't a product of a system).  If you are already picking top 5, it is less of a gamble since you don't have to trade up.  We aren't there this season.

 

I am lukewarm with Cousins.  I think I would love to have him as our QB - but not for the kind of $ it will take to land him.  I really think it's up to Daboll and McBeane and what they want to run.  I also would not mind trying for either Keenum or Bridgewater on the cheap.  I would not trade up.  Unless you have some real talented QB coach/OC who knows how to evaluate a QB (something we haven't seen in Buffalo - maybe ever) it is a lot of sacrifice of other needs to move up.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So it's not so much that Washington doesn't want him, but they aren't willing to invest in a guy who isn't committed to them.  

 

Commitment is a 2 way street - the transition tagging year over year soured that relationship.  Sure he got paid, but they never showed any love.  They wanted the booty calls, not the ring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Maybe no love because he is overrated? Franchise QB's are hard to come by, but you let Cousins walk?

 

Maybe Washington is wrong and the guy is better than sliced bread.

 

Look, are we having a conversation, or are you just arguing because you like to argue? 

 

Yes, Kelly wasn't committed to Buffalo and it worked out okay.   But the Bills OWNED THE RIGHTS to Kelly, and if Kelly wanted to play in the NFL he HAD to play in Buffalo.   If he had been a free agent, he never would have signed in Buffalo.   Cousins is completely different.  He IS or will be a free agent, so the fact that he doesn't feel a commitment to Washington is a big deal.  

 

I don't care if you lived in the midwest and didn't like it.   You aren't on the shortlist of QBs the Bills are interested in.   Cousins is the one who matters, and he's a down-to-earth, hard-working midwest boy.  Born there, raised there, went to high school and college there.  I'm guessing he doesn't like the east.   And, as someone else pointed out, the Redskins didn't exactly show him a lot of love when they talked contract. 

 

You asked me how can he be that good if Washington is giving up on him, and I answered - because he doesn't want to be there, not because Washington doesn't want him.   Your response?   Why is Washington giving up on him?    

 

Come up with something better.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are sold on Cousins and I'm not. Maybe he wants out of Washington because it's not a cultural fit and maybe he just isn't that good. If he was that good, you would think that Washington would have tried to accommodate him. Or maybe Washington is stupid. It's possible.

 

I am having a hard time buying that this about his desire to live in the midwest, but I don't personally know the guy. 

 

Maybe the light will go on for him and he will be a Hall of Famer. Stranger things have happened.

 

I expressed my opinion - get Smith - but Washington beat us to it.

Edited by Sky Diver
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

You are sold on Cousins and I'm not. Maybe he wants out of Washington because it's not a cultural fit and maybe he just isn't that good. If he was that good, you would think that Washington would have tried to accommodate him. Or maybe Washington is stupid. It's possible.

 

I am having a hard time buying that this about his desire to live in the midwest, but I don't personally know the guy. 

 

Maybe the light will go on for him and he will be a Hall of Famer. Stranger things have happened.

 

I expressed my opinion - get Smith - but Washington beat us to it.

Thanks.   That makes sense.   I'm not sold on Cousins, but I don think he's the best option to build a winner in the short term.   Not a 100% option, but a better way to go considering all the variables.  

 

I'm just guessing about the midwest, but there's a lot of evidence suggesting it could be true.   

 

And I'm not interested in him because I think he's a Hall of Famer.   I don't think he is.   I think it's a mistake to say no to every candidate who isn't a certifiable Hall of Famer.   You'll be waiting forever.   

 

I'm fine if you don't think he's good enough.  There's a lot of evidence to support that belief.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Foles or Bradford I would be fine with. Then you draft someone like Rudolph or Lauletta, you keep Peterman and you have a QB battle in the offseason. Bradford would probably win that battle and as I've said before, he makes it easy to transition to the next guy because he's bound to get hurt. But we have to approach this like the Eagles or Vikings and build the rest of the team to the point where we're good to great and the right QB puts you over the top.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Luka said:

Foles or Bradford I would be fine with. Then you draft someone like Rudolph or Lauletta, you keep Peterman and you have a QB battle in the offseason. Bradford would probably win that battle and as I've said before, he makes it easy to transition to the next guy because he's bound to get hurt. But we have to approach this like the Eagles or Vikings and build the rest of the team to the point where we're good to great and the right QB puts you over the top.

Everyone is drooling over Kirk Cousins, but in just a few days the Super Bowl MVP might just be Nick Foles.  That is going to change EVERYTHING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Everyone is drooling over Kirk Cousins, but in just a few days the Super Bowl MVP might just be Nick Foles.  That is going to change EVERYTHING.

 

Foles is a system QB that fits the type of system Daboll wants to run very well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.   That makes sense.   I'm not sold on Cousins, but I don think he's the best option to build a winner in the short term.   Not a 100% option, but a better way to go considering all the variables.  

 

I'm just guessing about the midwest, but there's a lot of evidence suggesting it could be true.   

 

And I'm not interested in him because I think he's a Hall of Famer.   I don't think he is.   I think it's a mistake to say no to every candidate who isn't a certifiable Hall of Famer.   You'll be waiting forever.   

 

I'm fine if you don't think he's good enough.  There's a lot of evidence to support that belief.   

 

I think we can all agree that I hope we get the guy that is at least a bridge to a franchise guy, or better yet, is the franchise guy. :)

 

I enjoy your articles and analysis. Very insightful and better than most of the professionals.

Edited by Sky Diver
Fixed typos
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

I think we can all agree that I hope we get the guy that is at least a bridge to a franchise guy, or better yet, is the franchise guy. :)

 

I enjoy your articles and analysis. Very insightful and better than most of the professionals.

Thanks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...