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Quarterback Carousel & Draft 2018

CritMark

By CritMark
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CritMark UDFA

CritMark

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It’s always fun this time of year to try and guess what will happen on draft day.  This year is particularly fun because of the larger than usual stable of seemingly quality QBs.   Most draft pundits will qualify their expectation of a team taking a QB with what happens if said team picks up a FA QB. 

 

Given that, here is my prognostication on what teams will do, including where I think the FA QBs will land.  My authority?  None other than a life long student of the game.  So, for you reading enjoyment…

 

If you can believe it, there are 30 Unrestricted Free Agent quarterbacks available at the end of the season.  However, 24 of them will likely not be starting for any NFL team by design.  So I have only concerned myself with six: Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the entire Vikings QB room of Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford. 

 

Brees and Garoppolo aren’t going anywhere.  Expect both to be resigned to a multi-year deal.  The Vikings would like to keep both Bridgewater and Keenum but that is unlikely.  My sense is they will end up signing Bridgewater.  So that leave 3, Keenum, Bradford & Cousins.  To that I will add Alex Smith who I fully expect to be traded.   

 

So let’s start with the veterans first.

 

Cousins goes to Denver.  He wants out of Washington and that gives the Broncos time to work on developing their young guys or at least kicking the can down the road for a few years.  They are now out of the draft market for a QB in 2018, at least in round 1.

 

Keenum goes to AZ.  He wants both to start somewhere and not be in a situation where he might find himself as a back-up again on opening day.  That eliminates the possibility of he and Bridgewater both being on the Vikings in 2018.  I think AZ is still in play to draft a QB given they have nobody under contract and the current CBA makes it affordable given where they are drafting.

 

Smith goes to Cleveland via trade.  Cleveland will still draft a QB at #4.

 

Bradford goes to Washington on a two-year deal and they look to draft a QB in the first round for Bradford to mentor.

 

The problem is, that still leaves more QB needy teams than QBs available in the draft.   So looking in to my crystal ball, here is where the QBs go in the first round.

 

#2 Giants – Josh Rosen – The perfect guy to sit behind Manning and learn, develop a pro body and perfect his craft.

 

#4 Browns – Sam Darnold – After taking Barkley #1, they get their future FQB to learn from Smith.

 

#5 TRADE – I expect someone to trade up with the Broncos to get their next FQB.  I see three teams that might pull the trigger here: Buffalo with two first round picks, Arizona because they know the guy they want will not drop to them at 15 and … here is my ‘What In The Hell Were You Thinking’ pick – The New Orleans Saints select Baker Mayfield for life after Brees.

 

#6 Jets – Lamar Jackson – Even with Josh Allen still on the board, the Jets select Jackson.  NY is a tough place to play and while Allen has promise, the fans will not be very patient.  Jackson’s dual threat abilities will buy him some more time and at least put an entertaining product on the field. 

 

#12 – TRADE – Josh Allen will be too big a draw for a QB needy team to wait.  The Cardinals trade up three spots to take Allen.  It won’t cost them a lot to move up and if they wait, Allen will be gone by 15.

 

#13 – Redskins – Mason Rudoph – The Skins would have liked someone else but their choices are limited since their strategy was to wait for Allen or Mayfield to drop to them.  Bad gamble that didn’t pay off.  Having hitched their mentor QB wagon to Bradford, they must pull the trigger here on Rudolph.

 

So there you have it, six QBs in the top 13 picks.  Please let me know what you think or if you are interested in what I am smokin. 

 

Wait, one bonus pick: The Patriots select their next guy to sit behind Brady at the end of the 3rd round in Kyle Lauletta, OB from Richmond.  

 

Edited by CritMark
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CritMark UDFA

CritMark

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1 hour ago, Ittakestime said:

6 QBs are not going in top 15 picks. 6 QBs won't even go in the whole first round. 

 

This is whole QB needing team is just a media line. Every year dozens of teams need QBs. 

 

You may very well be right but here is my rationale.  Last year Mahomes was projected as a late 1st to mid 2nd round pick.  A team traded all the way up to 10 to take him and that team has a QB under contract through 2018.  Everyone has Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield & Allen as sure 1st round picks.  Jackson and Rudolph are ranked about where Mahomes was. In Fact, several 'experts' have Jackson ranked well above any position Mahomes was last year,  Given there are so many projected so high, I expect a busier than normal round 1 for QBs. 

 

But as I said, just my guess.

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