Kiper Mock Draft: Josh Allen #1

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Josh Allen is not Flacco. He is extremely athletic and clearly has the potential to execute outside the pocket and make plays with his legs when necessary or even by design. Not a statue. The statue with the great arm in this draft is Rosen.

 

Agreed. Aside from probably being able to throw a football 80 yards, Flacco and Allen are nothing alike. 

 

I think Allen's ceiling is as a poor man's Cam Newton. Similar physical traits, but much worse instictiveness for the game of football. My gut tells me he'll wind up being a lot more like EJ Manuel or Jake Locker (very similar physical traits, and skill as a passer) than Newton. I think he'll be an enormous bust. 

[CuddyDark]

Here they go again picking physical talent and not football players to go #1.

[starrymessenger]

6 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. Aside from probably being able to throw a football 80 yards, Flacco and Allen are nothing alike. 

 

I think Allen's ceiling is as a poor man's Cam Newton. Similar physical traits, but much worse instictiveness for the game of football. My gut tells me he'll wind up being a lot more like EJ Manuel or Jake Locker (very similar physical traits, and skill as a passer) than Newton. I think he'll be an enormous bust. 

 

Yeah, Locker is his downside. To me he is in the risky pick category, with Darnold and even Rudolph. The other guys are safer IMO.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

 

Yeah, Locker is his downside. To me he is in the risky pick category, with Darnold and even Rudolph. The other guys are safer IMO.

 

Any QB whose accuracy and mechanics are openly questioned in their scouting report is an extremely risky pick. 

 

As I've said before, guys with scouting reports that read like his does rarely ever succeed in the NFL. Most are complete busts. 

[JMF2006]

Has Mad Mel ever been right?

[Buffalo716]

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

[Pete]

I thought all along Josh Allen would be the Bills pick if he fell to 21.  That doesn't look like its going to happen.

[Chicken Boo]

What happens when the Bills sign EJ Gaines to a contract and pick up one of the premiere DTs in free agency?

 

That's exactly what I predict will happen.

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks for the gouge.  How do you rate Darnold, and what do you see from Rudolph especially as far as reads?

 

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

[Uncle Joe]

53 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo. 

 

Sounds a little Fitzpatrick like to me.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

Darnold is a good prospect as well. I wish he stayed in school one more year. The NFL draft is already a guessing game and the success rate of sophomore QBs is pretty low. The less experience a guy has the harder it is to project them at the next level. I like that Darnold shows up in big moments, he has good accuracy, and a big arm. He does get tricked by coverage sometimes and it leads to a high number of ints. I don't think Darnold is quite ready for the NFL yet. 

 

If Darnold fails in the NFL it will be due to a slow release and having his confidence broken in year one (which tends to happen to sophomore QBs)

If Rosen fails it will be due to him no putting in the time to be an NFL Qb

If Mayfield fails it will be due to his size not allowing him to take snaps under center, step up in the pocket, and throw over the middle. 

If Jackson fails it will because he does not have an OC that lets him use his legs as much as his arm. He does not have the accuracy of a pocket passer. 

If Allen fails it will be because he does not learn to use more touch on shorter throws and does not improve his accuracy and footwork after his first read

If Rudolph fails it will because he does not have enough mobility and has average NFL arm strength. 

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

[starrymessenger]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

 

I think the smoke screens and fake news have started already. I would not trust anything I heard coming from the teams and their entourage this time of year.

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I said one month ago that the Browns are seriously considering taking Allen.

 

Rosen and Darnold at the core might not be too hot to go there... Allen would be honored to be the first pick and would run to Cleveland 

I do think Allen is a great fit for Cleveland, and I could see this happening. I think he is going to jump up after the Senior Bowl and Combine. People are already saying he could be #1. I think the combine and SB can push him in front of Rosen and Darnold. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 hours ago, Jamie Muellers Ghost said:

I do not see the Bills taking a one year starter , transfer players in Hughes after drafting all four year starters last year.

 

Hurst is a popular choice in McD's scheme. Find me the next Fletcher Cox or Brendan Graham.

If he is anything like either of those two, I really hope we get him!

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

 

I think the smoke screens and fake news have started already. I would not trust anything I heard coming from the teams and their entourage this time of year.

 

That is definitely true

 

it would really boggle my mind to see this kid go #1 no matter how physically gifted

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

 

I'm betting on Rosen. It's okay if he's a little bit of a jerk. In fact I think he needs a no nonsense type of guy like McDermott. For Rosen its going to be if he can sit for half a season, who the starter is, and who the OC and QB coaches are. 

 

Trade for Smith, trade up for Rosen and let him sit a year. To me the position is fixed. Don't know if it happens, but makes the most sense to me. 

[PIZ]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo.  He does have a quick release but bringing the ball down that low is no bueno.  He also gets skittish in the pocket.  I'd like to see him work in the pocket and find the open receiver but when he gets pressure he starts tap dancing and he wants to take off and run or throw it quick instead of stepping up.  I would have him as a mid 1st pick but he will surely go between 1-3 because teams are desperate.  I see him as a game manager type QB at the next level.  He's not going to put a team on his back and pass for 400 yards.  He will need a good balanced running attack to give him opportunities in the passing game.

 

Rudolph looks the part.  Big, strong, clean cut kid.  He has gaudy numbers.  We didn't see NFL type reads and throws from him in the offense he ran.  It's very much 1 read and throw quick or throw a bomb to the wide open guy that just ran by everyone.  He had very good receivers and was in a pass friendly offense.  It's hard to knock him for those things, we just need to see more from him.  Sitting out of the senior bowl will be a big blow to teams that are interested in him.  He checks all of the boxes but can he take a snap from center, have good footwork in the pocket, and plant and deliver a strike?  We could have had some answers to those questions if he played in the senior bowl.  He looks like Dan Marino at times and it gets me excited but there's a very good chance he's more like Bryce Petty and his success was more about his receivers and the offense he ran.  Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't.  We just don't know!

 

You write like a scout with the "we didn't see...".  Are you a scout or do you (with others?) do this for fun?  Just curious.  Thanks for the write-up.  I wanted to see a trade up for Darnold, but now you have me scared about the strips.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

1 hour ago, kdiggz said:

I'll chime in because I've watched a lot on both.  Darnold has the grit and determination that Rosen lacks.  Darnold is a blue collar type to Rosen's priviledged white collar persona.  However, I don't like Darnold's arm angle.  It results in strip sacks.  He cocks it kind of sidearm from his hip.  Every one of his games that I watched he had the ball knocked out while in the pocket.  He needs to get the ball higher.  Coaches will say they can fix that but they can't, that's just how he throws.  They might be able to tweak it slightly but he gets his power by pushing the ball from his body rather than a good follow through from the shoulder.  It is a huge issue imo.  He does have a quick release but bringing the ball down that low is no bueno.  He also gets skittish in the pocket.  I'd like to see him work in the pocket and find the open receiver but when he gets pressure he starts tap dancing and he wants to take off and run or throw it quick instead of stepping up.  I would have him as a mid 1st pick but he will surely go between 1-3 because teams are desperate.  I see him as a game manager type QB at the next level.  He's not going to put a team on his back and pass for 400 yards.  He will need a good balanced running attack to give him opportunities in the passing game.

 

Rudolph looks the part.  Big, strong, clean cut kid.  He has gaudy numbers.  We didn't see NFL type reads and throws from him in the offense he ran.  It's very much 1 read and throw quick or throw a bomb to the wide open guy that just ran by everyone.  He had very good receivers and was in a pass friendly offense.  It's hard to knock him for those things, we just need to see more from him.  Sitting out of the senior bowl will be a big blow to teams that are interested in him.  He checks all of the boxes but can he take a snap from center, have good footwork in the pocket, and plant and deliver a strike?  We could have had some answers to those questions if he played in the senior bowl.  He looks like Dan Marino at times and it gets me excited but there's a very good chance he's more like Bryce Petty and his success was more about his receivers and the offense he ran.  Maybe he can do it, maybe he can't.  We just don't know!

Danny Wuerffel had the arm angle problem, which was never fixed.

[billspro]

19 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks again.  So who is the horse you bet on?

 

Right now Rudolph and Mayfield. 

[GoBills808]

I'm not a big scouting guy but I like to check out the top QBs coming out every year and from what I've seen of Allen it makes sense IMO. I don't think he's as polished a passer as Wentz was coming out, his body control and pocket presence aren't on the same level, but as far as pure arm talent he's off the charts. The guy has an Elway-like release and the ball just jumps out of his hand...you talk about a 'live arm' and Allen is the photo next to the definition. I could definitely see him going to Cleveland #1, the question in their minds will be whether they feel they have the structure in place to bring his development along, they're pretty young along the O line.