QB Film Room: Baker Mayfield

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

They have made a ton of bold moves so far, I've got to conclude they will continue to do so. I believe that they traded to get all those picks so they had the draft capital to get a QB and fill out this team.

 

 

 

 

...as Grandma always said, "no guts no glory....no bawls no blue chips Sonny".......she was NEVER wrong...RIP......

[Buffalo716]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

Sweet, this makes me feel much better about getting him. Let me guess they don't like his height and "character" .

 

 

 

Yea a lot of people think he's really undersized.

 

ive never met him but people who have say he 6'0 max. Old school scouts and execs literally refuse to put him top 10-15 on their boards because that

 

i haven't completed a full big board with all positions but I believe Baker will firmly fall around the top 20 overall 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

 

Yea a lot of people think he's really undersized.

 

ive never met him but people who have say he 6'0 max. Old school scouts and execs literally refuse to put him top 10-15 on their boards because that

 

i haven't completed a full big board with all positions but I believe Baker will firmly fall around the top 20 overall 

 

It's all coming together now, right coach, right GM, made the playoffs and now our franchise QB, man I can't wait,  it's been a long time  since we have been contenders.

 

 

 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Yea a lot of people think he's really undersized.

 

ive never met him but people who have say he 6'0 max. Old school scouts and execs literally refuse to put him top 10-15 on their boards because that

 

i haven't completed a full big board with all positions but I believe Baker will firmly fall around the top 20 overall

If you believe a qb prospect will be a franchise qb and you don't have a franchise it doesn't matter where the player is ranked on your board. You seize the opportunity to get the player. With respect to that position if you are going to make a mistake drafting it should be for doing it sooner rather than risking losing the player later. 

[Buffalo716]

35 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you believe a qb prospect will be a franchise qb and you don't have a franchise it doesn't matter where the player is ranked on your board. You seize the opportunity to get the player. With respect to that position if you are going to make a mistake drafting it should be for doing it sooner rather than risking losing the player later. 

 

Of course.

 

i also said that the football adage is to draft a QB a round earlier so you don't lose him

 

I rarely will put a QB top 5 or 10 on my board unless he's a rare guy. But by my adage Baker could go top 10 and it's warranted if he's your guy 

[LEBills]

Mayfield is not my favorite prospect. I don’t care about his “character” which I think is overblown (seriously, who cares). I think his size is going to be a major factor he is going to need to overcome in the NFL. It won’t be like it was in college where a lot of shorter QBs are able to find passing lanes in wide open offenses and the windows he is pushing the ball into are much wider. He is not the athlete Russell Wilson is. His best physical comparison may be Drew Brees, who I think was also a better athlete. And it took Brees several years in the pros before he really became a good QB. 

 

I get why a lot of people on this board have him as their 1st, 2nd or 3rd best QB. He has a great story, and put up great stats each year at Oklahoma. But I think you also have to look at the reality - you are drafting a player who will likely be the shortest and least athletic player on the field at all times. It’s a gamble that I don’t think you win often.

 

However, I would gladly draft him at our first round pick hoping that he can defy the odds. His arm strength is quite good, his release is nice, he can read the field very well and knows when and how to push a throw. His stats were the way they were this year because he would pass up on the easy, open throws and make the harder (though still usually relatively open) downfield throws with accuracy. Mentally, he is a great QB (I always love when a QB can play great at two different schools like Russel Wilson did, because it shows they can grasp offenses quickly and adapt well to different cultures). And at 21, you draft Mayfield on the upside that he will learn to overcome his physical limitations and thrive within NFL offenses. If he does - and he has overcome a lot before - you have a franchise QB. Because his arm is that good and his mind that good.

 

Right now tho, I see a guy that even in college needed to move away from his pocket to find space so he could see the field better. He uses his slipperiness to get away from defenders that I’m not sure he will be able to get away from when they all have NFL speed. And so, I have him lower on my QB want list than many others here at TBD. But if the Bills draft him, I’ll think we have a chance at a franchise QB. Because all he needs to overcome is his height. And he has overcome a lot before

[NewEraBills]

I don't want to sell the farm for anyone but this morning I've finally converted.  If we get any QB in this draft, I hope it is Baker Mayfield.  That's ALL!!

[FearLess Price]

On 1/17/2018 at 6:42 PM, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

They have made a ton of bold moves so far, I've got to conclude they will continue to do so. I believe that they traded to get all those picks so they had the draft capital to get a QB and fill out this team.

 

 

 

Thats exactly what I think.  Plus any word in the media as to which QB they like, is def a smoke screen.

 

The only valid clues are who they scout live at games like beane has done for darnold, rosen, and rudolph. If its between rudolph and mayfield, i hope we trade up for mayfield.

[Woodman19]

I don't like his mechanics and size, I don't consider his attitude to be a problem as it's not a "me" attitude but a "we" one.  However I don't think he is worth trading up for and would only take him if he falls into our lap since you won't get much better upside at 21 than him.

[YoloinOhio]

What are your thoughts on this... clearly it can be developed further but cuts a bit into his readiness as an nfl prospect pertaining to accuracy 

 

[Cripple Creek]

On 1/17/2018 at 6:14 PM, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

but what they don't report about Baker that fits McDermotts mold is his work ethic, his drive, and ability to sacrifice to win

Any coach would welcome a player with those attributes. Too much has been made, by fans and media, of his “character.” He’s had one off field incident that I’m aware of & as someone who was known to get trashed and rowdy as a youngster, I don’t fault him that.

 

His on field incidents are all related to one thing, will to win. I’ll take that every day, especially Sunday!!!

 

Thank you for the in-depth analysis 716.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Cripple Creek

[Buffalo Barbarian]

48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

What are your thoughts on this... clearly it can be developed further but cuts a bit into his readiness as an nfl prospect pertaining to accuracy 

 

 

Seriously, now they are looking for excuses.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

56 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

What are your thoughts on this... clearly it can be developed further but cuts a bit into his readiness as an nfl prospect pertaining to accuracy 

 

 

I do agree that Baker  has thrown a lot of screen passes and shovels 

 

but it i do not think it masks accuracy deficiencies.

 

Baker is legitimately accurate at all levels and throws a great ball. But he does throw a good amount of screens... but so does Mason Rudolph and Josh Allen

[K-9]

QBs struggle when their rhythm is disrupted? Who knew?! Ground breaking analysis.

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

QBs struggle when their rhythm is disrupted? Who knew?! Ground breaking analysis.

 

Are you referring to that article right above?

On 1/23/2018 at 12:31 PM, Cripple Creek said:

Any coach would welcome a player with those attributes. Too much has been made, by fans and media, of his “character.” He’s had one off field incident that I’m aware of & as someone who was known to get trashed and rowdy as a youngster, I don’t fault him that.

 

His on field incidents are all related to one thing, will to win. I’ll take that every day, especially Sunday!!!

 

Thank you for the in-depth analysis 716.

 

Any time bud

 

and we were all young and stupid at one point. On the field Bakers teammates and coaches love him

 

ill take him twice on Sunday's 

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Are you referring to that article right above?

Yeah. I just skimmed it and thought it was funny he mentioned that Mayfield struggles when you disrupt his rhythm.

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Yeah. I just skimmed it and thought it was funny he mentioned that Mayfield struggles when you disrupt his rhythm.

 

Like their is 1 QB alive who doesn't  get flustered when you knock him out of rhythm lmao

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Like their is 1 QB alive who doesn't  get flustered when you knock him out of rhythm lmao

Right? 

 

Hey, I bet you had no clue that decision making has to be quicker inside the red zone because the field is shorter and more congested. That article was chock full of groundbreaking insights.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Right? 

 

Hey, I bet you had no clue that decision making has to be quicker inside the red zone because the field is shorter and more congested. That article was chock full of groundbreaking insights.

 

Lmao 

 

i thought the same exact thing 

 

the actual title of the article should be Football for Dummies 101

[CritMark]

Great write up on Mayfield.  I hope you don't mind if I comment with some of your conclusions.  In your negatives you listed three things I disagree with.  Actually two I disagree with and one I don't think is as important at you may.

 

-Inconsistent field vision - watch the tape and you will see his eyes are always down field.  Even when he scrambles his eyes are up.  He is certainly guilty of bypassing shorter route for down field plays but when you lead the nation in accuracy on long passes it's kinda hard to ding him too hard for that.

 

-Needs work under center  - Absolutely accurate...but, while I am looking for 2017 stats, here are some interesting numbers on 2016. According to Tru Media Networks ( a company chaired by Tony Kahn, Jag's owners son), 78.9% of passing plays started in shotgun.  When talking about Tom Brady's injury it was mentioned that he operates out of the gun over 70% of the time.  Does Mayfield need more experience under center yes, but the NFL is changing.

 

-Didn't play many top defenses  - this one drives me crazy because people have just adopted the narrative as true without actually looking at the numbers.  Please forgive the length of this reply but I am a numbers geek.

 

I did an analysis on the six games for each QB against the highest ranked defensive teams faced. So here is the data. Each teams defense ranking is in (##)

Sam Darnold: Record 4-2: W vs Stanford (35), W vs Texas (30), W vs Utah (39), L vs ND (31), W vs Stanford (35) L vs Ohio St (16). Average defense team ranking 31.
Josh Rosen: Record 3 - 3. L vs Stanford (35), W vs Colorado (75), W vs Oregon (82), L vs Washington (5), L vs USC (60), W vs Cal (80). Average defense team ranking 56.
Baker Mayfield: Record 4 - 2. W vs Ohio State (16), W vs TCU (15), W vs Texas (30), L vs Iowa State (27), W vs TCU (15), L vs Georgia (6). Average defense team ranking 19.

So Mayfield faced the stiffest defenses in their toughest six games, he and Darnold had the same W/L record and Rosen faced the easiest competition and fared worse in W/L. Every one of the six Mayfield faced were ranked in the top 30 defensively, Darnold had 2, Rosen had only 1 with three others ranked 75 or worse!

That's the team numbers. How did the QBs perform?

Darnold 62.6 Completions. 14 TD/6 INT (2.33 td/int ratio), 330 YPG, 152.97 rating
Rosen 62.9 Completions. 12 TD/4 INT (3.00 td/int ratio), 306 YPG, 142.95 rating
Mayfield 68.9 Completions. 16 TD/2 INT (8.00 td/int ratio), 310 YPG, 180.92 rating

So what does this tell us? Far superior numbers by Mayfield against tougher competition that either other 2 QBs.

I am not saying Mayfield is a sure fire NFL star. What I am saying is given the body of work for each of these three, there is no reason to believe he is far, if at all, behind the other two as a NFL prospect.

 

If I had to take one of the top three, I take Mayfield every time.  BTW - I did not include Josh Allen in this analysis given his awful completion % in a small conference and his 0-3 record against Power Five teams with 0 TDs and 8 INTs.  He is not the same conversation for me.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by CritMark