What's the price to move up and get our guy?

[yungmack]

9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Ummm ... given that the Eagles have still been winning without Wentz and that the Rams changed coaching staffs and added significantly to their offense (2 WRs compliments of the Bills plus signing a FA OT), you can't just pretend it's all on the QB, dude.  Wentz looked decent in 2016 as a rookie, but Goff was already being labeled a bust because of how clueless he looked ... and Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville are the current poster kids for building a strong team and then making do with a competent QB.

 

I don't think that trading up for a QB pays off unless he's the very best QB prospect in the draft, which means he'll likely be the consensus #1 pick, and even then, it's chancy.  The Bills don't have enough picks to do that ... if there even is a QB in the draft who's that good, which I'm not convinced there is.  I have no problem taking a QB in the 2nd round; some decent ones have come out of the 2nd round in recent years.  If Baker Mayfield was available late in the first or in the second, I might take a shot on him.  I think we've seen in recent years that it's not how short ( Brees, Wilson) or tall (Osweiller, Glennon) you are but how you play the game.  I wouldn't trade up for him, though.

Also, both the Rams and Eagles had lots of good players scattered across their rosters when the added those QBs. Unlike the Bills, who have weaknesses all over the roster, they only had a relatively few glaring flaws and so weren't as reliant upon the draft to improve. Not so the Bills this year.

[ddaryl]

41 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I actually like this idea as well. Turns a horrible talented meeting room into one that is really strong. The more i think of Cousins and still a early QB the more i think this becomes my preferred idea 

 

This makes little sense because you are not siging Cousins to anything less than a 4 year $100 million deal.. Are you going to sit Rudolph for 3 or 4 years ??? What was the point of that 1st rd pick if he is not going to see the field but as a backup. You don't use 1st rd picks on backups

 

You can not pay a FA QB that much money and then draft his replacement early because with the cap hit dead money ramifications it would be a waste. You either commit to Cousins fully and draft players to surround him in the 1st few rounds and maybe pick up a 4th rd QB to compete with Peterman to see who is better or you pick up a much cheaper FA QB and draft Rudolph or someother QB with the intention of starting him the next year with little cap ramifications from the vet we do sign

 

maybe you can trade your vet QB .. but the asking price for Cousins will make him hard to trade IMO

Edited January 15, 2018 by ddaryl

[ndirish1978]

57 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Cousins is your franchise QB at age 29 if signed and there would not be any need to spend a 1st round pick on his potential successor. 

 

This is the best case scenario. I still see him signing with Denver though. Hard to say no when John Elway comes calling. 

[MrEpsYtown]

3 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

This is the best case scenario. I still see him signing with Denver though. Hard to say no when John Elway comes calling. 

Great fit, but man the Jets and Browns just have so much more cap space. I think he goes to the Jets with Bowles not wanting to draft another young guy.  I think the Browns go AJ McCarron for the same reason. 

[ndirish1978]

1 minute ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Great fit, but man the Jets and Browns just have so much more cap space. I think he goes to the Jets with Bowles not wanting to draft another young guy.  I think the Browns go AJ McCarron for the same reason. 

 

I dunno, didn't the new GM just come out and say the most important thing he has to do is find a QB? Hard to say that and then sign a backup as your response. 

[Perry Turtle]

7 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

This makes little sense because you are not siging Cousins to anything less than a 4 year $100 million deal.. Are you going to sit Rudolph for 3 or 4 years ??? What was the point of that 1st rd pick if he is not going to see the field but as a backup. You don't use 1st rd picks on backups

 

You can not pay a FA QB that much money and then draft his replacement early because with the cap hit dead money ramifications it would be a waste. You either commit to Cousins fully and draft players to surround him in the 1st few rounds and maybe pick up a 4th rd QB to compete with Peterman to see who is better or you pick up a much cheaper FA QB and draft Rudolph or someother QB with the intention of starting him the next year with little cap ramifications from the vet we do sign

 

maybe you can trade your vet QB .. but the asking price for Cousins will make him hard to trade IMO

 I agree.  Cousins and a 1st round QB is an either/or situation.  Paying Cousins elite money and then missing an opportunity to draft him some help in the first round would be a disastrous move.

 

Conversely, you would want to help a rookie QB with as many FA dollars as possible, so tying up money in Cousins while drafting a 1st round QB also wouldn't make sense.

[MrEpsYtown]

2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

I dunno, didn't the new GM just come out and say the most important thing he has to do is find a QB? Hard to say that and then sign a backup as your response. 

 

I don't think Jackson sees McCarron as a back up, but Dorsey might. I think it depends on how they feel about Kizer, but Jackson is going to lose his job before a guy like Rosen or Darnold develop, so I think they go the vet route. Same with Todd Bowles. He obviously is not a fan of the young QB, and if they draft a young guy, he will lose his job before they are ever any good. 

 

I think Bowles and Jackson will push for veteran quarterbacks. With that said they can both outbid Denver significantly for Cousins if they want to. 

[ndirish1978]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I don't think Jackson sees McCarron as a back up, but Dorsey might. I think it depends on how they feel about Kizer, but Jackson is going to lose his job before a guy like Rosen or Darnold develop, so I think they go the vet route. Same with Todd Bowles. He obviously is not a fan of the young QB, and if they draft a young guy, he will lose his job before they are ever any good. 

 

I think Bowles and Jackson will push for veteran quarterbacks. With that said they can both outbid Denver significantly for Cousins if they want to. 

 

I have strong doubts CLE gets Cousins, but if anyone who is not us were to sign him this would be the best scenario. 

[MrEpsYtown]

4 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

I have strong doubts CLE gets Cousins, but if anyone who is not us were to sign him this would be the best scenario. 

 

Agreed. I do think he winds up with the NYJ. Denver is a great spot but the difference in cap space is huge. I do think there will be a sense of urgency for Bowles and Jackson to go veteran. I do think Elway wants a vet as well. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BillsfanAZ said:

I think fans can forget about moving that far up in the draft. The Bills shouldnt give up everything to move up for one player that nobody knows what kind of pro he will be. Even if he is good, the Bills couldnt upgrade anywhere else because they traded away all their picks. I can see the Bills seeing what QB's get past the top ten and if they are going to move up then move up to spots 10-15. It would not cost them a kinds ransom to do so. Also they may only see two QB's worthy of a top 15 pick so they may stay where they are. Between pick 7 of the Bucs and where they Bills pick at 21 there are only two teams that QB would be a need.....Cardinals and Redskins if they lose Cousins. If there was a trade maybe they trade with the Bengals at #12 which could be done for a 1st round pick the following year and a 5th. It all depends on what happens in Free Agency. If the bills sign a Keenum, Bradford, type player then they dont move up at all and see who is there at 21 to groom for a couple years. 

I think this is right scenario.

 

If the Bills sign a free agent QB (Cousins, Bradford, Keenum) they aren't moving up.   If they don't sign one AND they see a QB they really like (Mayfield?) they might trade up into the 10-15 range to get him.   Otherwise, they'll do the best they can.

 

Remember, Beane and McD LOVE having picks.   They aren't going to want to trade a bundle of picks.   That's why I think they spend the money on Cousins.  

[mannc]

4 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I think #1 could be in play. Browns may go Allen at 4. Bills draft Sam Darnold #1 overall. You heard it here first.

God, I hope not.

[Albillny]

55 minutes ago, Perry Turtle said:

 I agree.  Cousins and a 1st round QB is an either/or situation.  Paying Cousins elite money and then missing an opportunity to draft him some help in the first round would be a disastrous move.

 

Conversely, you would want to help a rookie QB with as many FA dollars as possible, so tying up money in Cousins while drafting a 1st round QB also wouldn't make sense.

If we do get someone like Cousins and he becomes a bust, then you have to start over 2 years down the line anyway.  Shore things up.  I am not saying it would be anything close, but:  Montana and Young, Favre and Rodgers.  Start worrying about the now and the future at the same time.  See what happens.  The Pats* haven't spent first round picks, but they have drafted better quarterbacks than the Bills recently.

Imagine having to trade away a high quality backup QB who has shown that they can start and win games just because your starting QB is so good you can't afford both.  What a world that must be.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Albillny

[Albillny]

Never forget Frank Reich!

[NewEraBills]

53 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I don't think Jackson sees McCarron as a back up, but Dorsey might. I think it depends on how they feel about Kizer, but Jackson is going to lose his job before a guy like Rosen or Darnold develop, so I think they go the vet route. Same with Todd Bowles. He obviously is not a fan of the young QB, and if they draft a young guy, he will lose his job before they are ever any good. 

 

I think Bowles and Jackson will push for veteran quarterbacks. With that said they can both outbid Denver significantly for Cousins if they want to. 

Bowles and Jackson are not the ones making the decision.  The GM is and the Browns GM is after a QB and I'm sure the Jets GM is too.

[Logic]

I have absolutely no problem giving up a king's ransom in draft picks IF the Bills believe there is a franchise changing signal caller available. Why? Well, if not this year, then when? This is a potentially historically great quarterback draft and the Bills have more draft capital this year than they're likely to have most years. If McDermott is the coach we all think and hope he is, the Bills won't be picking any higher than 16th most years. So again I ask, if not this year, with all our capital and such a great QB class, then when?

Yes, giving up a lot of picks will temporarily hamstring their ability to add quality players around said QB. But the cupboard isn't bare as it is. Let's say they add a decent veteran WR through free agency. Rookie QB would have Benjamin, vet WR X, Jones, Thompson at WR, Clay and O'Leary at TE, and Shady at HB. Not too shabby. Defensively, the Bills obviously need talent. Personally, though, I'd rather get a potential franchise QB in place first. I look at it like this: This year, with the talent already on hand on defense, the Bills went 9-7 and made the playoffs. Add a legitimate quarterback (and OC) to the team and you're hopefully looking at a significant improvement.

Bottom line for me? This whole "build up the roster, fill all the other holes, we can't afford a QB!" argument doesn't hold water for me any more. We have seen the Bills field a pretty good all-around team numerous times throughout the drought. We've had good defenses, good running games, good receivers...and yet we've still failed to be consistent contenders. One of the big reasons why? No quality, consistent QB play since Kelly retired. Even recently, toward the end of Whaley's tenure, we had a good all around roster. No QB, though, and look how that all ended up. Let's end this constant carousel of mediocrity and take care of the most important position in the sport once and for all, whatever the cost. With the salary cap going up every year, we'll be able to add quality pieces through free agency and again in the next few years' drafts. But THIS year? The first full year of our new coach/GM's tenure, and with a possibly historically great QB, and with all this capital...let's go get our guy. Enough is enough.

Send our two 1sts and a 2nd this year, a 1st and 3rd next year, and get it done. Bills would still have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and two 5ths this year. They would still have a 2nd, 4th, 5th, etc next year. And this is BEFORE potentially adding more draft capital via trading of Glenn, Taylor, maybe Lawson.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Logic

[MrEpsYtown]

9 minutes ago, NewEraBills said:

Bowles and Jackson are not the ones making the decision.  The GM is and the Browns GM is after a QB and I'm sure the Jets GM is too.

 

I get that but you have to look a little deeper. Bowles and Mccagnan are tied at the hip and got short contract extensions to turn things around. If they draft a young guy and go through a 3-13 season they are going to lose their jobs. 

 

Dorsey was brought in to work with Jackson. The Browns have pretty much ignored Jackson and it hasn't helped. He clearly did not want to trade down all of those times and certainly did not want Cody Kessler. They have a young guy with great physical traits and potential in Kizer. Grabbing a veteran likely saves Jackson's career. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I understand the fears of trading away the farm to get our QB when we have so many other immediate needs. However, watching the Rams and Eagles this year, I can't help but remember how almost everyone laughed at them in 2016 when they paid the following to go get their QBs for the next decade or so:

 

Rams - Gave: 2016 1st, 2 2nds, 3rd, 2017 1st, 3rd

              Received: 2016 1st overall pick, 4th, 6th

 

Eagles - Gave: 2016 1st, 3rd, 4th, 2017 1st, 2018 2nd

               Received: 2016 2nd overall pick and a 2017 4th

 

I'm not saying we should make such a dramatic move just because it worked for both the Rams and Eagles so quickly. I'm asking - if Darnold and Rosen come out of the combine with projections of being "the guy" worthy, how much would you be willing to give away to go get them?

 

 

Everything. All in.

 

Bet the mortgage, car payment and the kids' tuition.

 

[Happy]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Agreed. I do think he winds up with the NYJ. Denver is a great spot but the difference in cap space is huge. I do think there will be a sense of urgency for Bowles and Jackson to go veteran. I do think Elway wants a vet as well. 

 

Further proof that Cousins' price will be way higher than his value.  I think the Bills trade for an older vet like Alex Smith (or possibly Eli Manning), then draft a QB closer to their 21st spot; maybe they move up to around 15.  I don't think they'll mortgage everything and trade up to top 5, not with the holes we need filled.

 

It will be interesting what NYJ/Denver does, assuming one of them gets Cousins and the other does not.  I don't think either would go after Eli Manning or Alex Smith since those teams are looking for a vet QB with several years left in the tank.

[Koufax]

Have to identify where we value each of these imperfect players relative to the NFL and see how that fits together.

 

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Rudolph all could be a consideration to be the top guy from this draft when all is said and done, and someone in that group will go in the top couple picks and someone in that group will still be available at #21.

 

In addition to that group is the Alex Smith Kirk Cousins option which is a stopgap, but prevents a giant reach/gamble if the chips don't play out right.

 

I don't know that any of those guys really feel like the guy to trade in to the top three slots and pay the draft capital to do so.  Right now I'm most interested in Mayfield especially with his chances of falling out of the top ten, although I think as time presses on he will likely see his stock rise and cost more to go up and get.

 

But to the prices to pay, if there is a guy we want to move up, I think that a franchise QB is worth a lot more than when we moved to pick Watkins over Odell, and I don't mind if we pay a price for the right guy.  I'm just not sure I see that big move to move up guy, and point to what Washington gave up to move up to #2 for RGIII with tons of picks to do so, only to also take Cousins at #102 and we saw how that played out in the big picture.

[MAJBobby]

3 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This has zero relevance with respect to QB prospects in the 2018 draft. 

 

The downside is you spend a premium pick on a player who will not conribute for a few years. It makes no sense with so many other priority needs.

 

Understand. But after 17 plus years of ignoring or swinging and missing at the position. We are set up this offseason to fill it with the Best on out there in UFA and take a top Rookie in the first round. And finally address the position and increase odds of finally fixing it