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If it’s my pick here is the Bills next QB


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On 1/15/2018 at 6:31 AM, Niagara Dude said:

Ferguson needs to improve his field vision for the NFL. He consistently locks onto his primary read and stares him down. When Ferguson rolls out of the pocket, his field vision improves and he looks beyond his first read.

Read more: http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php#ixzz54FgLmW9A

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php#HfFjQa3SIXYh6xjg.99

As far as I can tell this is an understatement. I looked at video on youtube of this guy and I have yet to see a play where he turns his head even once. It's lock on to the first read and throw.

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On 1/15/2018 at 8:28 AM, ProcessTheTrust said:

I understand the fear of trading away too much to move up to get our guy, but recent history suggests the risk is worth the reward. Just google the Rams and Eagles trades to move up, how much they paid, and how EVERYONE laughed at the price they paid. 2 years later...

 

Actually, "recent history" suggests just the opposite.  Since 2000, only 3 teams have traded up to get a QB in the first round and had success:

  • 2004, the Giants traded a cartload of picks plus Phillip Rivers, for Eli Manning.  Despite Manning's Super Bowl success, you could argue that with those picks and Rivers, a much more consistent QB than E Manning, the Giants might have been more successful.
  • 2016, the LA Rams traded for Goff and Philly traded for Wentz.  Both appear to have blossomed as sophomores, but 2 good seasons doesn't make a good career.

The Bills got a bust in 2004 with JP Losman and so did the Jests when they traded up for Sanchez in 2009 and Washington when they traded for Griffin in 2012.  

 

Also consider that trading up for the fourth best QB in the 2004 draft cost the Bills a shot at Aaron Rodgers in 2005 who didn't go until the 24th pick.

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If we sign Cousins, an average QB, we'll be overpaying him greatly and locking the team into mediocrity for years to come. The same is true of all these FA QB's. Why do you think their current teams are letting them walk? It's not like when the Colts let Peyton go because they could draft Luck. No more average QB's! I'm starting to think just getting to the postseason once in a while is good enough for some of you. Not me. I want the Lombardi Trophy and everyone should know by now that step 1 is get a great QB ( not an average one)  and keep trying until you do. Some would rather pay a so-so QB a king's ransom. You didn't learn from that Fitz fiasco? Really?

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I definitely don't like Rosen or Darnold enough to Kings Ransom to the top two spots.  I think Mayfield will be better than either of them in the NFL and has more Brees than Manziel in his future, but he could end up going too high to get (but if the coaches agree with me on him, they should definitely try to move up for him).

 

And while I like Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins on our team next year, neither is the long term answer.  If either is a realistic possibility they can certainly be a stop gap that allows us to not do any crazy mortgage-the-future trades for non-slam-dunk QB prospects, but we really need to draft someone we think can be an Elite NFL QB in the next couple drafts either way, and if we identify someone in this draft that fits that, starting early and doing it with a lot of draft capital is better than waiting for the next draft or the one after that.

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On 1/15/2018 at 8:18 AM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The guys I want in order

 

plan A: Pay Cousins whatever it takes

 

plan B: trade for Alex Smith 

 

plan C: trade whatever we can to move up to 1 or 2 and take Darnold 

 

plan D: trade for Eli Manning or Andy Dalton

 

plan E: AJ Mccarron or Teddy Bridgewater 

 

plan F: Sign me as QB! haha

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8 hours ago, Sweats said:

That's clearly way too small for a QB in this league.

 

That's sarcasm right?  DangeRuss sarcasm?

3 hours ago, Wagon Circler said:

He is my pick too.

I have been scouting college quarterbacks since day 1.

After Mayfield, this guy is as impressive as anyone. Very accurate, good size and toughness,  accuracy. IMHO, the 2nd best QB in the draft.

 

Who?  Your response got separated from the post it likely answered.

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4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

If we sign Cousins, an average QB, we'll be overpaying him greatly and locking the team into mediocrity for years to come. The same is true of all these FA QB's. Why do you think their current teams are letting them walk? It's not like when the Colts let Peyton go because they could draft Luck. No more average QB's! I'm starting to think just getting to the postseason once in a while is good enough for some of you. Not me. I want the Lombardi Trophy and everyone should know by now that step 1 is get a great QB ( not an average one)  and keep trying until you do. Some would rather pay a so-so QB a king's ransom. You didn't learn from that Fitz fiasco? Really?

 

Tell me what "average QB" means to you, please.  Or so-so QB.

 

I don't think all that many teams are letting their current QB walk.   The Redskins may transition tag Cousins for ~$28M but they get no compensation if he gets other offers they can't match - and he's going to get offers, carefully structured to be sure they can't match.  Franchise tagging him again is $34.5M or something like that.  They can do it - but why?

They're kind of out of options with him if he doesn't want to sign a contract with them.

 

The Chiefs are in Cap Hell.  They have a young QB they just drafted and their choice of players to trade or cut and meet cap is basically Alex Smith, Alex Smith, or Alex Smith.

 

Especially if the Vikes win the NFC championship, it's kind of gonna be hard to let Keenum walk.  Even getting to the AFC game, ditto with Bortles.

 

I'm not sure what "average QB" or "so so QB" means to you, but hopefully you can see that Smith and Cousins should really not be compared to Fitzpatrick.

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On 1/15/2018 at 1:21 AM, bills in oregon said:

Yes an accurate QB that is willing to throw  the ball to the wide outs. He is the second most accurate passer behind B. Mayfield who I don’t want too much baggage. Don’t fall in love with just anyone look at the numbers. 

 

Actually you got this wrong, correct thing to say is:  Dont fall in love with the just the NUMBERS.  Not saying this kid is going to be a bust or some scrub, I honestly don't know much about him, but there is usually a reason guys with good "stats" are down on the rankings list.  Anything can happen, but the important point is not to fall in love with the numbers only when it comes to College player evaluation.  

 

You want to know who the 10 most prolific statistical passers are in College Football history?  

  1. Case Keenum
  2. Timmy Chang
  3. Landry Jones
  4. Graham Herrell
  5. Ty Detmer
  6. Kellen Moore
  7. Baker Mayfield
  8. Luke Falk
  9. Colt Brennan
  10. Rakeem Cato

What do you notice from that list?  Every single QB on that list (ignoring the 2 guys who are in the draft this year) either was a career NFL backup, complete washout in the NFL, didn't make the NFL.  Case Keenum is STILL a backup, remember he is playing due to injury to the starter.  Great story, but he has been a career backup that is having some success this season as a backup forced to start, but there are no guarantees he will start next year or can replicate any of the success he had this year either, especially if he leaves to a less talented team.  Rams were worst offense in the NFL last year with him starting and they still had Gurley.  

 

In fact, the only QB in the top 20 all time passing leaders in college football history to be a starter in the NFL is Phillip Rivers who is currently 13th on the list after this season.  And of course, he had a great NFL career.  

 

College stats are fools gold.  

 

NOTE:  3 potential Bills targets in this draft are in the top 11 as Mason Rudolph is now 11th on the list to go with Baker and Falk as also guys that could get drafted by the Bills this draft.  

 

And if you look at any list that ranks the 20 BEST QB's to ever play in College football they frequently include names like:  

Tebow, Leinart, Harrell, K. Moore, Manziel, B. Petty, Torretta, Ward, Young, Detmer, Wuerffel, Ware, etc...all of which are currently awful in the NFL or were awful before they washed out.  


Once again...college stats are fools gold.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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I think, as @hapless said earlier, trading up get a QB is dependant on a lot of things, and our draft position is clearly not conducive to getting a top5 pick.

In all reality, Rosen and darnold shouldn't even be on our radar, as they will be gone top5 (most likely 1 and 2) and the top 10 packs this year are:

 

1 browns

2 Giants

3 colts

4 browns (again)

5 broncos

6 Jets

7 bucs

8 bears

9 raiders

10 sanfran

 

Looking at that list I see:

 

(Definitely taking a QB)

-Browns taking a QB (either at 1 or trading down and taking a QB @4)

-Jets

 

(Not taking a QB)

Bucs, bears, raiders, sanfran

 

That leaves 4 "wild cards" in the mix for possible picks:

 

-browns other pick. If they go darnold/Rosen at #1 they might trade #4 to drop and stockpile, even if they don't, that is spot where no QB is taken because they won't take two QBs (although it is the browns...)

 

-Giants. Nobody has any idea. If they like Davis Webb enough, they might roll the dice to groom him as Elis heir. If not, they might go QB, but that's a lot of money to pay a backup to groom him.

 

-colts. Total wild card. Depends on luck's shoulder.

 

-broncos. I believe they are going hard on cousins, Smith, or even keenum. They are in "win now" mode, only a QB away again. If they don't land cousins though, they still might draft a youngster to go behind Smith/kenum.

 

11 dolphins

12 Bengals

13 Redskins

14 Packers

15 cards

16 Ravens

17 chargers

18 Hawks

19 cowboys

20 lions

 

Our only threats from that group to trade up would be:

-redskins

-cardinals (though they may go after cousins/Smith)

 

 

I would be happy moving up to get Allen, although that would probably require getting up to #5, and hoping the Jets don't jump to #4, with the broncos being set at QB with cousins, otherwise the will take a QB.

 

If darnold and Rosen go 1-2 or 1-4 then i don't see Allen getting past broncos/Jets.

 

At that point I don't think anybody else is worth going all in for, as the rest are reaching.

 

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On 1/15/2018 at 8:18 AM, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The guys I want in order

 

plan A: Pay Cousins whatever it takes

 

plan B: trade for Alex Smith 

 

plan C: trade whatever we can to move up to 1 or 2 and take Darnold 

 

plan D: trade for Eli Manning or Andy Dalton

 

plan E: AJ Mccarron or Teddy Bridgewater 

If the Bills trade for Alex Smith then they lose credibility with me. Alex Smith is the same QB as Tyrod Taylor. Might as well have continuity and stay with Tyrod instead of wasting draft capital and talent on Alex Smith.

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2 minutes ago, JackKemp said:

If the Bills trade for Alex Smith then they lose credibility with me. Alex Smith is the same QB as Tyrod Taylor. Might as well have continuity and stay with Tyrod instead of wasting draft capital and talent on Alex Smith.

I am not a fan of Smith, but I do think he's an upgrade over Taylor.  I would not invest a high draft pick to acquire him.  He's only acceptable as a bridge qb, which means you better get the franchise qb in round one.  Love your avatar, btw.

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These are early days as far as the evaluation process is concerned. IMO rankings will change, maybe even a lot, before the dust settles. There is the combine yet to come, interviews, pro days, private workouts, the senior bowl week and game. The draft talk we get from the talking heads is probably way behind where team scouts, GMs, directors of pro/college personnel are at already. Eventually the two streams will converge more, subject to the effect of the usual misinformation and smoke screens.

Look at Cowherd's first draft. Lamar Jackson is not a first rounder according to him. You know that will change by draft day.

I think this is a good class for QBs and I think the Bills are very interested in getting someone they like and they probably like more than one guy. As many have said you could easily see six guys go in the first round and all of the players in question likely deserve to go in the first. 

JMO but the three guys I would consider blowing big draft capital to get are Jackson, Rosen and Mayfield. The other three guys (Darnold, Allen and Rudolph) are worth moving up for but not to the same extent. 

Edited by starrymessenger
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50 minutes ago, JackKemp said:

If the Bills trade for Alex Smith then they lose credibility with me. Alex Smith is the same QB as Tyrod Taylor. Might as well have continuity and stay with Tyrod instead of wasting draft capital and talent on Alex Smith.

 

46 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I am not a fan of Smith, but I do think he's an upgrade over Taylor.  I would not invest a high draft pick to acquire him.  He's only acceptable as a bridge qb, which means you better get the franchise qb in round one.  Love your avatar, btw.

 

Ales Smith is an upgrade over Tay squared.

imo

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21 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

 

Ales Smith is an upgrade over Tay squared.

imo

I watched a game with a Chiefs fan who said all the same things we say about Tyrod Taylor. I have watched Alex Smith several times. He is a mirror image of Tyrod Taylor. Does do well passing over the middle. Long shots down field are rarely successful. Leaves the pocket at the first sign of danger. Everything is just like Tyrod. Just keep Tyrod in that case.

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