peterpan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 A LOT of that stuff falls on the QB to get them in the right play and calls etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young34 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Dafan said: Other QBs\teams would convert on 1st and second downs more often. With the 3rd most rushing attempts in the NFL, a lot of those 1st and 2nd downs weren't on the QB, forcing the 3rd down pass. So, it's definitely not all on Taylor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dafan Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, Young34 said: With the 3rd most rushing attempts in the NFL, a lot of those 1st and 2nd downs weren't on the QB, forcing the 3rd down pass. So, it's definitely not all on Taylor. As why i said QB\team. I get it wasn't just taylor, but even the majority of the passes he attempted were short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 8:41 PM, Young34 said: Tyrod is 12th in the league for 3rd down passing. That can't be right though, because he's the worst QB in the league. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing I feel like that stat is interesting, but doesn't tell the whole story. What was his passing percentage when playing from behind with the game on the line or when needing to maintain a slim lead? Because I felt no confidence at all that he could pull something out in crunch time. 2 2nd half TDs in the last 7 games is pretty much my take on TT. He can rack up some garbage stats, but he's ineffective when it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young34 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Dafan said: As why i said QB\team. I get it wasn't just taylor, but even the majority of the passes he attempted were short. For clarification... Are you saying the majority of passes he made on the 3rd down were short of getting the 1st? Sorry, I'm just not fully understanding this without specific context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBill Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 That site is interesting on passing stats... Taylor is pedestrian with most of those stats - sometimes not even in the top 20. But - Completion % - 4th quarter. He ranked 5th in the league. Ahead of names you'd expect to be higher maybe (Brady, Rogers). He was 1st in the league in Interceptions/attempt (though Alex Smith was nearly tied at 1% of passes attempted - it's not different by much and Smith had nearly 100 more attempts). Looking at the 3rd down conversion % by range - Short (<3 yds) 9th @ 68.8% first downs, Medium (3-7 yds) 7th @ 53.2%, Long (8+ yds) 12th @ 29.4%. I think you can look at statistics all over the place - when we break every data point down - you darn well better be good at a few things. I would not be shocked (or entirely sad) to see TT back next season - with a long term answer in the wings. Peterman does not feel like he is the long term solution - but maybe it was just a bad appearance vs. the Chargers (and his 1 attempt in the WC game). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted January 17, 2018 Author Share Posted January 17, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 7:24 AM, MTBill said: I agree with you. I'm not convinced this team is going further than a WC with TT as the QB, however if you look at the potential vets who'll be out there... are they long term or short term solutions? I don't think they are interested in Cousins or Smith. I think they could take a flier on Bridgewater if he's at the right price. We have to play the long game - Brady isn't going to be in NE much longer before he retires - then the AFCE could be ripe for taking - and getting to host a playoff game again. I think we still have 2-3 years before that happens. When I look at the new OC, that screams to me a guy who works with what he has... that just sort of tells me he'll be working with TT. I think we draft the best QB available at 21/22 - unless there is a way to 'cheaply' move up. I don't think they are going to go after a top 5 pick, it would cost too many picks for a team with so many holes to plug still - for a position which even going that high would still need a year or two to develop. So - I think they take the best QB available with one of those picks, and fill out the roster. They'll work with TT(or maybe a passable vet), the new rookie, and Peterman in 2018 - then the best of them will take over in 2019 if it isn't TT. That is a "now & future" foundation and seems to fit "the process". I know it isn't what a large portion of this fanbase wants, but it may be what we should expect. Dennison was part of the problem, not the solution. TT was also part of the problem (perhaps in large part due to that system). Peterman isn't ready, and may never be. Everyone wants to knock TT for making the call to throw on that 1st down inside the 5... He couldn't know we'd get an OPI call. If that is just an incomplete pass, they probably try a run... Using the tool provided here. 79 running plays from inside the 5 happened in 2017 against the Jags. Only 3 TDs were allowed on those plays from inside the 5 on Goal to Go plays. The Jags were pretty stout on that D in that spot. 3 TDs were allowed via pass in the same range - out of 33 attempts. So - trying a pass was more than twice as successful in 2017 from that distance against the Jags. Interesting stuff! Thanks On 1/16/2018 at 9:51 AM, peterpan said: A LOT of that stuff falls on the QB to get them in the right play and calls etc If you're referring to audibles, not every OC lets his QB audible. Hell, Big Ben, 1st ballot HOFer, publicly admitted Haley hasn't allowed him to audible to a QB sneak for years now when that may have been the difference on a 4th and inches play against the Jags last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTBill Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 After looking further into that data - the statistics I gave could have been incorrect. That site is terrific - but the interface is terrible and not always accurate (at least looking at the plays does not always seem to match up with what you requested). I think these could be more accurate in terms of # of plays (but is still wrong - e.g. no incomplete passes are listed or FG). I had tried Goal to Go first and then when looking at the results there were plays from the 30 which weren't goal to goal. 10 plays inside the 5 (not counting incomplete passes) Results - Passing TD - 3 Passing Plays - 4 Rushing TD - 3 Rushing Plays - 6 http://pfref.com/tiny/164O1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 12:22 PM, Dafan said: As why i said QB\team. I get it wasn't just taylor, but even the majority of the passes he attempted were short. Well, Taylor was actually exactly in the middle of the pack of the NFL when it came to throwing to the sticks (ALEX), according to Footballoutsiders. He was also 17th/34 in AY/A and 20th/34 in ANY/A. He wasn't chucking it down the field all the time like in 2015, but I think it's a bit hyperbolic to say he was throwing the ball a lot shorter than other NFL QBs consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 1:40 PM, ndirish1978 said: I feel like that stat is interesting, but doesn't tell the whole story. What was his passing percentage when playing from behind with the game on the line or when needing to maintain a slim lead? Because I felt no confidence at all that he could pull something out in crunch time. 2 2nd half TDs in the last 7 games is pretty much my take on TT. He can rack up some garbage stats, but he's ineffective when it counts. When the team needed to come from behind by 1-8 points on the year, Taylor was 94/145 for 967 yards for 6 TDs and 1 INT with a passer rating of 94.8. When the team needed to maintain a "slim lead" ahead by 1-8 points on the year, Taylor was 48/79 for 560 yards for 3 TDs and 0 INTs with a passer rating of 94.9. We just didn't really pass very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2018 Author Share Posted January 18, 2018 On 1/16/2018 at 2:37 PM, MTBill said: That site is interesting on passing stats... Taylor is pedestrian with most of those stats - sometimes not even in the top 20. But - Completion % - 4th quarter. He ranked 5th in the league. Ahead of names you'd expect to be higher maybe (Brady, Rogers). He was 1st in the league in Interceptions/attempt (though Alex Smith was nearly tied at 1% of passes attempted - it's not different by much and Smith had nearly 100 more attempts). Looking at the 3rd down conversion % by range - Short (<3 yds) 9th @ 68.8% first downs, Medium (3-7 yds) 7th @ 53.2%, Long (8+ yds) 12th @ 29.4%. I think you can look at statistics all over the place - when we break every data point down - you darn well better be good at a few things. I would not be shocked (or entirely sad) to see TT back next season - with a long term answer in the wings. Peterman does not feel like he is the long term solution - but maybe it was just a bad appearance vs. the Chargers (and his 1 attempt in the WC game). Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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