QB Film Room: Josh Allen

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...safe to assume now that Browns' luvfest with McCarron is over even though he's a UFA?......drafting one doesn't say much for Kizer.............

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...safe to assume now that Browns' luvfest with McCarron is over even though he's a UFA?......drafting one doesn't say much for Kizer.............

 

IMO with 2 picks in the 1st 4 and a strong QB class, it's a no brainer for the Browns to pick a QB, whether or not they like Kizer.  If he's a year ahead in his development, he lets the draftee sit for a season, or half a season.

 

It's a low risk/high reward scenario for them.  They could wind up with 2 talented QB (oh! the horror!) and trade one.

[CritMark]

On 2/24/2018 at 10:43 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you really think differences in gaudy completion percentages in college have that much meaning? 

 

As far as I can tell, both Mahomes and Mayfield are QB from a simplified "air raid" offense that favors gaudy passing numbers.  I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth.  And Mahomes has what, 2-3" on Mayfield?

 

I'm not in any way arguing that Mayfield isn't worth a chance as a QB.  I'm just saying the QB acquisition draft math is different when a team has a high end QB and is able to contend for a championship.  Sure, they should take a shot at QB, but why not draft a later-round guy who might become good with a bit of seasoning - their Garappolo type?  Why trade up for a QB, when they could stay pat (or trade up) for the missing piece that might get them back to the Superbowl?

 

As far as Chase Daniel, he's started 2 games in KC; he played reasonably well in a tight loss in one, and "meh" in a win in the other.  At his best, he can do this or this.  There's about as much (and as little) evidence that Daniels can play QB in the NFL as there is for AJ McCarron, but AJ has 3' on Chase (and at this point, Chase may not have the "want to", some guys get comfortable playing the backup role)

 

 

 

Help me understand something. If you have two QBs that play in a similar system and both benefit from one "that favors gaudy passing numbers", to use your words, and one of those two QBs has much better numbers statistically than the other, why is that not meaningful?  Even if both are inflated, one QB did more with the system they both played in.

 

I touched on this in another post to address looking at the quality of competition.  I looked at the six top rated defenses faced in 2017 by Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield.  I won't go through all the stats again now, but happy to if you would like.  Bottom line was the average ranking of the top six defenses played was Darnold (31), Rosen (56) and Mayfield (19). So Mayfield faced MUCH better defenses than either of the other two top prospects and the stats were not even close.  As I said, happy to post all the stats for you.

 

My point isn't that the Bills need to trade up for Mayfield.  My point is however, if the Bills, or any other team, wants to take a QB at the top of the draft, Mayfield should be in the conversation as the first QB off the board.  Not absolutely the first QB, but seriously in the conversation.

[Solomon Grundy]

The first minute says it all!!! I love this guy. Very articulate!!

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2018 at 10:48 PM, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well of course I will publish my scouting report here but for a quick spoiler yes he is ahead of Allen on my big board by quite a bit

 

As of today they aren't close as QBs. Baker is better hands down in his development 

 

 

CAN'T WAIT! asfdsdfsdfsdfsdfasdfasfddsadf

[Solomon Grundy]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

CAN'T WAIT! asfdsdfsdfsdfsdfasdfasfddsadf

Hapless, please watch above video. Funny as hell

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Hapless, please watch above video. Funny as hell

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

He missed the entire net!!

[Augie]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

My favorite line: “can you imagine if the NBA draft judged players by how hard they throw it at the rim?” 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He missed the entire net!!

 

I am not an Allen fan.  I am mystified by the whole Allen-love thing.   No, his WR don't have the most drops.  Yes, he didn't have much talent on his team but he was also playing against a lower level of competition.  I thought Voch had a good point - with some of the other QB, when they're inaccurate he can see the clear connection to a breakdown in their footwork and hip follow through on that particular throw.  Fix the mechanics, you fix the throw.  With Allen, sometimes his mechanics look good and he's not under pressure and the ball still doesn't go to the right place (as with that net).

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I am not an Allen fan.  I am mystified by the whole Allen-love thing.   No, his WR don't have the most drops.  Yes, he didn't have much talent on his team but he was also playing against a lower level of competition.  I thought Voch had a good point - with some of the other QB, when they're inaccurate he can see the clear connection to a breakdown in their footwork and hip follow through on that particular throw.  Fix the mechanics, you fix the throw.  With Allen, sometimes his mechanics look good and he's not under pressure and the ball still doesn't go to the right place (as with that net).

 

The first time I saw him he one hopped a bubble screen, and even after seeing some great stuff, that EJ-esque type of play stuck with me. If we get him, I’ll hope I’m wrong. If I’m right, I’ll hope he ends up on the Jets! 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

My favorite line: “can you imagine if the NBA draft judged players by how hard they throw it at the rim?” 

He's entertaining and knowledgeable at the same time.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

Help me understand something. If you have two QBs that play in a similar system and both benefit from one "that favors gaudy passing numbers", to use your words, and one of those two QBs has much better numbers statistically than the other, why is that not meaningful?  Even if both are inflated, one QB did more with the system they both played in.

 

I thought I spelled this out quite clearly: " I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth."

 

IOW, to repeat myself, Your part about the quality of the defenses they faced is only one of about 5 things I want to know.

 

I'll give as an example, Mason Rudolph.  Also plays in an "air raid" system that favors big numbers.  65% completion, 4904 yds on 489 attempts.  If I'm comparing that to Baker Mayfield's 70.5% completions on 404 throws for 4627 yds, it's relatively straightforward because they played in the same conference against generally the same quality of competition, and both in big programs that get good recruits.  From what I've seen, I'm more impressed with Mayfield (of the two) because I see him as attempting higher DOD throws more often, making some progressions, and showing more escapability.  I think Rudolph's completion percentage over-states his accuracy because I think his WR helped him out a lot by coming back for throws etc. 

 

But still, he threw for more yards on more attempts.  How do their stats compare when adjusted for throw-aways, spikes, etc?  When looked at different distances and placement of throws?  Is Mayfield really rocking a higher completion percentage because of more short throws that pad the stats combined with a bunch of deep bombs that pad the yardage?

 

These kind of stats exist, and maybe when one looks at them one sees that Mayfield is a much better QB than Mahomes was.  Or maybe not.

 

As far as rankings on defenses, I dunno; what I see with Rosen is that he didn't seem to have a lot of talent around him.  I believe his WR are second in drops to Lamar Jacksons, 11% to 12%, dropped 31 passes, and I didn't like Rosen's OL when I watched some film from last year.  So yes I believe they faced a lower level of competition, but I think it also has to be looked at what was the level of talent on their own team and that was lower (just as with Rudolph, I felt he benefited from a good OL and great WR.  I covet one of his WR).

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[CritMark]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought I spelled this out quite clearly: " I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth."

 

IOW, to repeat myself, Your part about the quality of the defenses they faced is only one of about 5 things I want to know.

 

I'll give as an example, Mason Rudolph.  Also plays in an "air raid" system that favors big numbers.  65% completion, 4904 yds on 489 attempts.  If I'm comparing that to Baker Mayfield's 70.5% completions on 404 throws for 4627 yds, it's relatively straightforward because they played in the same conference against generally the same quality of competition, and both in big programs that get good recruits.  From what I've seen, I'm more impressed with Mayfield (of the two) because I see him as attempting higher DOD throws more often, making some progressions, and showing more escapability.  I think Rudolph's completion percentage over-states his accuracy because I think his WR helped him out a lot by coming back for throws etc. 

 

But still, he threw for more yards on more attempts.  How do their stats compare when adjusted for throw-aways, spikes, etc?  When looked at different distances and placement of throws?  Is Mayfield really rocking a higher completion percentage because of more short throws that pad the stats combined with a bunch of deep bombs that pad the yardage?

 

These kind of stats exist, and maybe when one looks at them one sees that Mayfield is a much better QB than Mahomes was.  Or maybe not.

 

As far as rankings on defenses, I dunno; what I see with Rosen is that he didn't seem to have a lot of talent around him.  I believe his WR are second in drops to Lamar Jacksons, 11% to 12%, dropped 31 passes, and I didn't like Rosen's OL when I watched some film from last year.  So yes I believe they faced a lower level of competition, but I think it also has to be looked at what was the level of talent on their own team and that was lower (just as with Rudolph, I felt he benefited from a good OL and great WR.  I covet one of his WR).

 

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

Fact: Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage. 

Response 1: But he played in the Big 12 where they don't play defense.

Rebuttal 1: The Pac 12 in 2017 was ranked worse than the Big 12 in defense but neither Rosen nor Darnold get any such criticism.

Response 2: But Mayfield had better talent around him.

Rebuttal 2: Looking at recruiting class rankings USC had the far better recruiting classes consistently with UCLA and OU roughly even.

Response 3: But everyone knows OU does a better job of developing talent.

Rebuttal 3: If everyone knows that, why does USC continue to draw better talent?  wouldn't it be in the players interest to chose OU over USC?

Response 4: Well it's all just a guessing game trying to evaluate talent coming out of high school.

 

So if everything comes down to dismissing everything to a guessing game, then throw out all the stats and just look at how a players feels to you.  Oh wait, that's what they seem to be doing with Josh Allen.  My bad.

 

I could go on but you get my drift.  It doesn't matter what objective measure you want to apply, there is always an excuse to dismiss it and most of the time is it grossly subjective and not supported by facts  

 

You are absolutely correct, there are a lot of stats out there that compute adjusted percentage to account for spikes etc. Mayfield still leads the country.  You yourself question if short throws pad the stats.  There are stats out there as well and Mayfields production holds up at any distance.  Mayfield's completion  and rating are far better than the other QB prospects at any distance, short, medium or long.  Here's one more for you, Mayfield's passer rating under pressure was better that Rosen & Darnold when they had no pressure. Here are two quotes from ProFootballFocus:

 

Every number you choose to focus on puts Mayfield head and shoulders above the rest of the class. His NFL passer rating when kept clean in the pocket was 143.8 in 2017, more than 20.0 points higher than any of the other potential top quarterbacks. 

 

Mayfield was more productive and efficient when pressured than the other top prospects were when kept clean in 2017.

 

Are there other factors that need to be looked at, absolutely.  How about, maybe the reason the offensive talent at OU looked better or developed better was do in some part to the QB elevating the talent around him!  Just an idea.

 

OK, stepping off my soap box now.  As I said, I appreciate your thoughtful and respectful dialog.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, CritMark said:

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

 

Goodness, I seem to have struck a nerve.  My only point was that I'm not prepared to look at Mahomes completion percentage and yardage last year and Mayfields completion percentage and yardage this year, and on the basis of that proclaim Mayfield a better QB prospect (your op to which I responded)

 

There are a lot of things that go into the effectiveness of a QB play besides yardage and completion percentage.  We see that in the NFL, though of course some resist the notion

 

I do agree at this time of year it goes nuts with the QB some people favor getting lots of excuses.  I know nothing about rating of "recruits", which sounds very tenuous to me, but my eyes tell me that Rosen did not have a lot of talent on his OL and WR this year, and indeed, stats back that up with high drops.  Mayfield had good WR and a pretty good OL from what I can see, but not as good as Rudolph (I covet one of Rudolph's WR).

 

I like Mayfield and would be happy if we drafted him.  I think he will probably fall further than many draft pundits think, because teams just don't like 6' QB.

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

Fact: Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage. 

Response 1: But he played in the Big 12 where they don't play defense.

Rebuttal 1: The Pac 12 in 2017 was ranked worse than the Big 12 in defense but neither Rosen nor Darnold get any such criticism.

Response 2: But Mayfield had better talent around him.

Rebuttal 2: Looking at recruiting class rankings USC had the far better recruiting classes consistently with UCLA and OU roughly even.

Response 3: But everyone knows OU does a better job of developing talent.

Rebuttal 3: If everyone knows that, why does USC continue to draw better talent?  wouldn't it be in the players interest to chose OU over USC?

Response 4: Well it's all just a guessing game trying to evaluate talent coming out of high school.

 

So if everything comes down to dismissing everything to a guessing game, then throw out all the stats and just look at how a players feels to you.  Oh wait, that's what they seem to be doing with Josh Allen.  My bad.

 

I could go on but you get my drift.  It doesn't matter what objective measure you want to apply, there is always an excuse to dismiss it and most of the time is it grossly subjective and not supported by facts  

 

You are absolutely correct, there are a lot of stats out there that compute adjusted percentage to account for spikes etc. Mayfield still leads the country.  You yourself question if short throws pad the stats.  There are stats out there as well and Mayfields production holds up at any distance.  Mayfield's completion  and rating are far better than the other QB prospects at any distance, short, medium or long.  Here's one more for you, Mayfield's passer rating under pressure was better that Rosen & Darnold when they had no pressure. Here are two quotes from ProFootballFocus:

 

Every number you choose to focus on puts Mayfield head and shoulders above the rest of the class. His NFL passer rating when kept clean in the pocket was 143.8 in 2017, more than 20.0 points higher than any of the other potential top quarterbacks. 

 

Mayfield was more productive and efficient when pressured than the other top prospects were when kept clean in 2017.

 

Are there other factors that need to be looked at, absolutely.  How about, maybe the reason the offensive talent at OU looked better or developed better was do in some part to the QB elevating the talent around him!  Just an idea.

 

OK, stepping off my soap box now.  As I said, I appreciate your thoughtful and respectful dialog.

 

We had this convo before and I'd just like to point out that i never tried to bash USC as a program

 

they are both top 10 historic programs and draw top 10-20 recruiting classes yearly.

 

My point was that Oklahomas record the past 8 years suggested they develop talent slightly better

 

of course USC pulls 5* and 4* but so does OU. But OUs been better 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

We had this convo before and I'd just like to point out that i never tried to bash USC as a program

 

they are both top 10 historic programs and draw top 10-20 recruiting classes yearly.

 

My point was that Oklahomas record the past 8 years suggested they develop talent slightly better

 

of course USC pulls 5* and 4* but so does OU. But OUs been better 

 

The one thing that is a little scary with Mayfield is just how open his WRs get. Lamb looks like a top 5 WR prospect in his draft year, he has an NFL TE, and a few other NFL prospects at the WR position, and a very good oline. I still really like Mayfield as a prospect but you have to take that into account. 

 

Where as Josh Allen had the worst team around him. I don't think I have ever seen an oline play as bad as Wyomings. That definitely hurt Allens completion percentage. Allen is the most difficult prospect to evaluate. His protection always breaks down so you don't get to see him go through his reads, his accuracy drops off considerably after his first read but that may be due to protection issues as well, and he looks to run without the play developing but that could be because his WRs suck. He also makes some throws on tape that only he can make, very special arm. 

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, billspro said:

 

The one thing that is a little scary with Mayfield is just how open his WRs get. Lamb looks like a top 5 WR prospect in his draft year, he has an NFL TE, and a few other NFL prospects at the WR position, and a very good oline. I still really like Mayfield as a prospect but you have to take that into account. 

 

Where as Josh Allen had the worst team around him. I don't think I have ever seen an oline play as bad as Wyomings. That definitely hurt Allens completion percentage. Allen is the most difficult prospect to evaluate. His protection always breaks down so you don't get to see him go through his reads, his accuracy drops off considerably after his first read but that may be due to protection issues as well, and he looks to run without the play developing but that could be because his WRs suck. He also makes some throws on tape that only he can make, very special arm. 

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

 

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

 

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

 

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

 

and he never may be

Edited February 28, 2018 by Buffalo716

[billspro]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

 

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

 

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

 

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

 

and he never may be

 

I agree with you, I have Allen as my QB5

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

and he never may be

 

The thing about Allen is, is he consistent and accurate when not under pressure? 

 

Voch Lombardi in his scouting film pointed out that with Lamar Jackson, he could predict when he would be inaccurate because his footwork was off before he threw (other throws, the mechanics are proper, and the throws on target).  But with Allen, he would see what looked like good mechanics and adequate time to throw, and sometimes his throw would still be off target.  If that's true, it may be harder for Allen to fix things.  The first challenge will be to identify the problem. 

 

Then there's that Senior Bowl throw at the nets.  Allen.  Net #2.  Sailing, sailing.  We'll see.

 

What bothers me about the "lack of talent Wyoming" thing, is that it seems to me it's also true of most of the teams he faced, so it should come out in the wash, vs guys who had more talent around them, but also faced more talent.

 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan