QB Film Room: Josh Allen

[H2o]

Great arm, great size, good athlete, just inconsistent. People try to compare him to Roethlisberger, but Ben was way more accurate in college. I can see the physical comparison, but that is where it stops. Allen didn't have a good supporting cast around him so I believe this can somewhat be taken into account. The OL was bad as well as the WR group. It's still concerning when a QB getting this much hype can't even complete 60% of his passes in college. I'd take a late 2nd or 3rd Round flier on him, but I wouldn't throw all of my eggs into one basket thinking he was THE guy. 

[CritMark]

For your reading enjoyment, here is a post season analysis by Pro Football Focus: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-josh-allens-2017-season-defined

 

Clearly not high on Josh Allen.  I agree.

 

[Luka]

Allen is very streaky against mediocre competition. Sailing short passes and throwing into the dirt shows there is a problem with his mechanics. Any QB that you feel you have to rebuild fundamentally is not someone that should be picked anywhere before the 4th or 5th round.

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Luka said:

Allen is very streaky against mediocre competition. Sailing short passes and throwing into the dirt shows there is a problem with his mechanics. Any QB that you feel you have to rebuild fundamentally is not someone that should be picked anywhere before the 4th or 5th round.

 

Well unfortunately that's not how it works anymore 

 

Pat Mahomes was very flawed mechanically as well and he just went 10th

 

QBs get over drafted. It's the nature

[JaCrispy]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well unfortunately that's not how it works anymore 

 

Pat Mahomes was very flawed mechanically as well and he just went 10th

 

QBs get over drafted. It's the nature

Yeah but Mahomes was an accurate passer even with bad mechanics...

[Buffalo716]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

Yeah but Mahomes was an accurate passer even with bad mechanics...

 

Well I never said he wasn't. The other posters point was that a QB with bad fundamentals shouldn't be drafted high

[SWATeam]

One thing that I notice watching his tape is that his interior Oline was dreadful.  He had constant pressure right up the middle.

 

I like him.  Rare tools.

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well I never said he wasn't. The other posters point was that a QB with bad fundamentals shouldn't be drafted high

Oh I know...I guess I was just trying to interject that KC was able to look passed Mahomes poor mechanics because he didn’t require good mechanics to be accurate...whereas a guy like Allen has poor mechanics and poor accuracy and may fall as a result.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

Oh I know...I guess I was just trying to interject that KC was able to look passed Mahomes poor mechanics because he didn’t require good mechanics to be accurate...whereas a guy like Allen has poor mechanics and poor accuracy and may fall as a result.

 

Of course

 

I'm not a huge Mahomes fan but atleast he displays good accuracy on tape . That could make up for what he lacks in mechanics

[Buffalo Barbarian]

11 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

I don't see any way that happens.  From my count, here are the QB needy teams as well as a few that rumors have them moving on from their incumbent.  I added my perceived likelihood they take a QB.  In a few cases I made a distinction between taking a QB and taking Mayfield specifically if he is on the board.

 

1 & 4 - Cleveland - There is no way they don't take a QB with one of these two picks.  Wait, we're talking about Cleveland! QB = 100%

2 - NY Giants - Now would be the perfect time for them to take a QB to sit behind Eli for 1 year.  QB = 99%

5 - Denver - Their QB situation is a mess. I think they are in the market but think Elway's first option is free agency.  Even with that, taking a longer term QB is a possibility. QB = 75%

6. NY Jets - If Denver passes on a QB I expect to see the Jets take the best of the rest. QB = 60%, Mayfield = 75%

11. Miami - the fans are growing tired of Tannehill.  They have seen enough to know he is not getting them to the SB.  QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

12. Cincinnati - Same as Miami bur insert Dalton for Tannehill. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

15. Arizona - they have NO QB.  Even if they pick one up in free agency I would expect them to take one here if one of the top five are on the board. QB = 75%

 17. LA Chargers - Not necessarily a needy team, but if Mayfield is on the board, I think they would grab him. QB = 25%, Mayfield = 75%

 

That is a long gauntlet to run in the hopes of getting Mayfield to fall to 21. So the question is, would they bundle the two picks to move up to take a QB of their liking, whoever that may be?

 

 

They better unless they have grander plans

 

 

[JaCrispy]

58 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

They better unless they have grander plans

 

 

Agreed

[Ittakestime]

So I watched a little bit on the full games for Wyoming on youtube, and I must say, Allen has a ton of potential.  His team was absolutely terrible around him and the play calling sucked.  There were so many times where he was running for his life.  He would throw dimes to WR and they would drop them.

 

He needs a year of sitting behind an accurate vet.   I would try to get McCown.  I was impressed with him last year and he is an incredible teacher.

[GunnerBill]

3rd round pick. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/16/2018 at 9:06 AM, CritMark said:

 

I don't see any way that happens.  From my count, here are the QB needy teams as well as a few that rumors have them moving on from their incumbent.  I added my perceived likelihood they take a QB.  In a few cases I made a distinction between taking a QB and taking Mayfield specifically if he is on the board.

 

1 & 4 - Cleveland - There is no way they don't take a QB with one of these two picks.  Wait, we're talking about Cleveland! QB = 100%

2 - NY Giants - Now would be the perfect time for them to take a QB to sit behind Eli for 1 year.  QB = 99%

5 - Denver - Their QB situation is a mess. I think they are in the market but think Elway's first option is free agency.  Even with that, taking a longer term QB is a possibility. QB = 75%

6. NY Jets - If Denver passes on a QB I expect to see the Jets take the best of the rest. QB = 60%, Mayfield = 75%

11. Miami - the fans are growing tired of Tannehill.  They have seen enough to know he is not getting them to the SB.  QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

12. Cincinnati - Same as Miami bur insert Dalton for Tannehill. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

15. Arizona - they have NO QB.  Even if they pick one up in free agency I would expect them to take one here if one of the top five are on the board. QB = 75%

 17. LA Chargers - Not necessarily a needy team, but if Mayfield is on the board, I think they would grab him. QB = 25%, Mayfield = 75%

 

That is a long gauntlet to run in the hopes of getting Mayfield to fall to 21. So the question is, would they bundle the two picks to move up to take a QB of their liking, whoever that may be?

 

 

I think Denver is very much an analytics/value type team.  They need a QB, who they take is going to be driven by their perceived value vs. position.

I wouldn't have the hair shocked off me if they trade up to #2 if whoever they like better is there at QB, and if NYG decide they want to give Eli another try under Shurmur and pick up  a developmental prospect later in the 1st/early 2nd. in exchange for more picks to restock the team elsewhere.  (Or, even more picks from someone lower down)

 

If the Jets decide to hang onto McCown they could decide on a prospect as well.

 

I don't think Miami and Cincinnati are going to draft based upon fan opinion.

 

I also don't think the Chargers are going to take a QB "just because".  Coaches have shelf lives.  The Chargers want playoffs next year.  They had the #1 passing offense in the league last year with Rivers and Whisenhunt - an ideal position for them to take whatever missing piece they feel they need to put them "over the hump", whilst stocking the cupboard with a talented 2nd or 3rd round prospect (see: NE, Garappolo, Brady).

 

I don't know about bundle the two picks.  What I could see happening is Beane trying to find a trade partner for a player or two and swapped 1st round picks, to move up.

Then with a higher 1st round pick, we could try to make a 2nd move.

 

 

 

 

[CritMark]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Denver is very much an analytics/value type team.  They need a QB, who they take is going to be driven by their perceived value vs. position.

I wouldn't have the hair shocked off me if they trade up to #2 if whoever they like better is there at QB, and if NYG decide they want to give Eli another try under Shurmur and pick up  a developmental prospect later in the 1st/early 2nd. in exchange for more picks to restock the team elsewhere.  (Or, even more picks from someone lower down)

 

If the Jets decide to hang onto McCown they could decide on a prospect as well.

 

I don't think Miami and Cincinnati are going to draft based upon fan opinion.

 

I also don't think the Chargers are going to take a QB "just because".  Coaches have shelf lives.  The Chargers want playoffs next year.  They had the #1 passing offense in the league last year with Rivers and Whisenhunt - an ideal position for them to take whatever missing piece they feel they need to put them "over the hump", whilst stocking the cupboard with a talented 2nd or 3rd round prospect (see: NE, Garappolo, Brady).

 

I don't know about bundle the two picks.  What I could see happening is Beane trying to find a trade partner for a player or two and swapped 1st round picks, to move up.

Then with a higher 1st round pick, we could try to make a 2nd move.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree on Denver but disagree on the Giants. I don't think they see themselves drafting this low again and they know Eli is winding down.  Given a deep QB class they need to take a top talent this year.  I think that means they either stay at 2 or trade back no more than a few spots.

 

The more I read, I don't think Cincinnati will take a QB short of a big drop on a top guy.  I expect them to trade back.

 

Miami is another story, I still think they are a player if the right QB is there, and I think Mayfield would entice them to pull the trigger.

 

I agree San Diego isn't going to take just anybody but another team that I think will pull the trigger on their next FQB if that guys is there when they pick.

 

There are two big wildcards in this draft IMO.  First is Josh Allen.  You know, they guy who can't hit a net unguarded from 10 yards away.  If he slips based on things like that, the board changes significantly. 

 

Second is the teams that have aging QBs that know they need to find a replacement, even if they plan to let him hold a clipboard for a couple of years.  Given the deep class, they don't have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him.  Maybe top five, but not all the way to #1.  This would include the Saints, Chargers and Steelers.  Even the Packers with Rodgers turning 35 towards the end of the 2018 season.  If one of the top guys slips even a little, don't be surprised if one of these teams is actively looking to trade up to secure that next guy now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, CritMark said:

 

Agree on Denver but disagree on the Giants. I don't think they see themselves drafting this low again and they know Eli is winding down.  Given a deep QB class they need to take a top talent this year.  I think that means they either stay at 2 or trade back no more than a few spots.

 

The more I read, I don't think Cincinnati will take a QB short of a big drop on a top guy.  I expect them to trade back.

 

Miami is another story, I still think they are a player if the right QB is there, and I think Mayfield would entice them to pull the trigger.

 

I agree San Diego isn't going to take just anybody but another team that I think will pull the trigger on their next FQB if that guys is there when they pick.

 

There are two big wildcards in this draft IMO.  First is Josh Allen.  You know, they guy who can't hit a net unguarded from 10 yards away.  If he slips based on things like that, the board changes significantly. 

 

Second is the teams that have aging QBs that know they need to find a replacement, even if they plan to let him hold a clipboard for a couple of years.  Given the deep class, they don't have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him.  Maybe top five, but not all the way to #1.  This would include the Saints, Chargers and Steelers.  Even the Packers with Rodgers turning 35 towards the end of the 2018 season.  If one of the top guys slips even a little, don't be surprised if one of these teams is actively looking to trade up to secure that next guy now.

 

Well, I can always be surprised, but I would be surprised if anyone with a top QB already on the payroll trades up to take a guy.

 

These are typically the teams that will throw a 2nd through 5th round pick at a guy they like if he falls to or past where they have him valued, let the guy compete with other backups, and keep the best - because with a great QB already on the roster, their cap space may be tight, they need to keep a team around him, and the best way to do that is through the draft.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Packers used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seeking an upgrade to Brett Hundley, but they need a better OL and a defense way more than they need a top draft pick QB.

 

I think we at the Bills, so QB hungry as we are, have a tendency to both overvalue our own backup QB (the 'don't expose Levi Brown on the practice squad' story; Peterman) and also assume that every team is going to compete with us for the resource we're seeking.

 

Miami might.

 

 

[CritMark]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I can always be surprised, but I would be surprised if anyone with a top QB already on the payroll trades up to take a guy.

 

These are typically the teams that will throw a 2nd through 5th round pick at a guy they like if he falls to or past where they have him valued, let the guy compete with other backups, and keep the best - because with a great QB already on the roster, their cap space may be tight, they need to keep a team around him, and the best way to do that is through the draft.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Packers used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seeking an upgrade to Brett Hundley, but they need a better OL and a defense way more than they need a top draft pick QB.

 

I think we at the Bills, so QB hungry as we are, have a tendency to both overvalue our own backup QB (the 'don't expose Levi Brown on the practice squad' story; Peterman) and also assume that every team is going to compete with us for the resource we're seeking.

 

Miami might.

 

 

 

I understand the sentiment but at some time you are going to have to find the replacement guy. 

 

Look at the Saints.  Brees turned 39 this month.  People forget that with all the Brady talk. How much longer do they think they can ride this horse?  Who is next in line if he goes down?  I had to look it up.  Chase Daniels (an UFA by the way) and some guy named Taysom Hill, a 27 year old rookie from BYU.  BTW - the rookie is the tallest for the three at 6'2".  If they think they have Brees' replacement that's one thing.  Do you think one of those two is their next FQB?  Talk about overvaluing your own backup. 

 

Pre draft rumors abound and most of it is nonsense.  However, a lot of 'experts' have Mayfield being drafted at 13 by Washington.  If he gets by the Jets at 6, the next QB needy team is likely Washington assuming the Fins don't grab him at 11 or the Bengals at 12, just because the guy fell to them.  If neither of those are interested in a QB, do you think they would not shop the pick to a team like the Saints?  I think they would and I think the Saints would bite. 

 

Besides, as I previously mentioned, he current CBO makes this palatable.  Watson went 12 last year and signed an almost $14MM 4 year deal.  Miami paid Cutler $10MM for 1 year. This would not just be a reasonable play, I think it would be a good play for the Saints.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, CritMark said:

 

I understand the sentiment but at some time you are going to have to find the replacement guy. 

 

Look at the Saints.  Brees turned 39 this month.  People forget that with all the Brady talk. How much longer do they think they can ride this horse?  Who is next in line if he goes down?  I had to look it up.  Chase Daniels (an UFA by the way) and some guy named Taysom Hill, a 27 year old rookie from BYU.  BTW - the rookie is the tallest for the three at 6'2".  If they think they have Brees' replacement that's one thing.  Do you think one of those two is their next FQB?  Talk about overvaluing your own backup. 

 

Pre draft rumors abound and most of it is nonsense.  However, a lot of 'experts' have Mayfield being drafted at 13 by Washington.  If he gets by the Jets at 6, the next QB needy team is likely Washington assuming the Fins don't grab him at 11 or the Bengals at 12, just because the guy fell to them.  If neither of those are interested in a QB, do you think they would not shop the pick to a team like the Saints?  I think they would and I think the Saints would bite. 

 

Besides, as I previously mentioned, he current CBO makes this palatable.  Watson went 12 last year and signed an almost $14MM 4 year deal.  Miami paid Cutler $10MM for 1 year. This would not just be a reasonable play, I think it would be a good play for the Saints.

 

We see the same things, but we  come to different conclusions, Crit.  The point to understand is that coaches and teams with a great QB and a window, want to exploit that window.  The Saints are close.  They are gonna be looking to put all their draft horses into pulling them over the top.  With the Saints I say "all", because they are a team that historically does NOT use enough draft picks on developmental QB (same true of Chargers).  They SHOULD be doing what GB and NE do, but they aren't.  Brees, you may recall, is the QB who threw a hissy at reports the Saints planned to draft Mahomes last year.  I could be surprised, but I doubt they spend and move up.

 

Chase Daniel, you may recall, is the QB signed to a 3 year, $21M deal by the Eagles when they traded for Sam Bradford - Sam's "injury insurance".  He's neither Drew Brees nor Nick Foles, but he's a much better QB than his UDFA status and his NFL pedigree as a clipboard holder would have you believe.  I saw him at Mizzou, and the only way in which he wasn't a much much better QB than Blaine Gabbert who went in the 1st is his height - he's a shrimp, like Brees.

[CritMark]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We see the same things, but we  come to different conclusions, Crit.  The point to understand is that coaches and teams with a great QB and a window, want to exploit that window.  The Saints are close.  They are gonna be looking to put all their draft horses into pulling them over the top.  With the Saints I say "all", because they are a team that historically does NOT use enough draft picks on developmental QB (same true of Chargers).  They SHOULD be doing what GB and NE do, but they aren't.  Brees, you may recall, is the QB who threw a hissy at reports the Saints planned to draft Mahomes last year.  I could be surprised, but I doubt they spend and move up.

 

Chase Daniel, you may recall, is the QB signed to a 3 year, $21M deal by the Eagles when they traded for Sam Bradford - Sam's "injury insurance".  He's neither Drew Brees nor Nick Foles, but he's a much better QB than his UDFA status and his NFL pedigree as a clipboard holder would have you believe.  I saw him at Mizzou, and the only way in which he wasn't a much much better QB than Blaine Gabbert who went in the 1st is his height - he's a shrimp, like Brees.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, on multiple points.  You think a lot more of Daniels than I do.  While he did sign a big deal with the Eagles, it was front end loaded.  The salary cap hit to NO last year was under $1MM.  I don't see any way he gets a $7MM/year deal with them for 2018.

 

There is also a big difference between Mayfield and Mahomes.  Brees has come out publicly saying he like Mayfield.  Also, by any measure, Mayfield is a better QB.  Here are some stats from 2016 on eight common opponents for the two.

 

Mahomes - completion 65.2% - TD/INT ratio 3.1/1.0 - QB Rating 144.8

Mayfield - completion 73.2% - TD/INT ratio 4.0/1.0 - QB Rating 200.7

 

In raw numbers, Mahomes threw 162 more passes (371 to 209) and threw 2 fewer TDs (22 to 24).   It's not even close.

 

Two more reasons they would consider a move for Mayfield.  Since 2000 only three seasons has a QB have had a rating above 200.  That would be Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield.  Only two QBs with over 1000 attempts have a career rating over 170, Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield. 

 

Sometimes you have to take a chance.  I think this guy is worth taking that chance for.  I respect any opinion to the contrary however.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/26/2018 at 10:21 AM, CritMark said:

 

We will have to agree to disagree, on multiple points.  You think a lot more of Daniels than I do.  While he did sign a big deal with the Eagles, it was front end loaded.  The salary cap hit to NO last year was under $1MM.  I don't see any way he gets a $7MM/year deal with them for 2018.

 

There is also a big difference between Mayfield and Mahomes.  Brees has come out publicly saying he like Mayfield.  Also, by any measure, Mayfield is a better QB.  Here are some stats from 2016 on eight common opponents for the two.

 

Mahomes - completion 65.2% - TD/INT ratio 3.1/1.0 - QB Rating 144.8

Mayfield - completion 73.2% - TD/INT ratio 4.0/1.0 - QB Rating 200.7

 

In raw numbers, Mahomes threw 162 more passes (371 to 209) and threw 2 fewer TDs (22 to 24).   It's not even close.

 

Two more reasons they would consider a move for Mayfield.  Since 2000 only three seasons has a QB have had a rating above 200.  That would be Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield.  Only two QBs with over 1000 attempts have a career rating over 170, Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield. 

 

Sometimes you have to take a chance.  I think this guy is worth taking that chance for.  I respect any opinion to the contrary however.

 

Do you really think differences in gaudy completion percentages in college have that much meaning? 

 

As far as I can tell, both Mahomes and Mayfield are QB from a simplified "air raid" offense that favors gaudy passing numbers.  I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth.  And Mahomes has what, 2-3" on Mayfield?

 

I'm not in any way arguing that Mayfield isn't worth a chance as a QB.  I'm just saying the QB acquisition draft math is different when a team has a high end QB and is able to contend for a championship.  Sure, they should take a shot at QB, but why not draft a later-round guy who might become good with a bit of seasoning - their Garappolo type?  Why trade up for a QB, when they could stay pat (or trade up) for the missing piece that might get them back to the Superbowl?

 

As far as Chase Daniel, he's started 2 games in KC; he played reasonably well in a tight loss in one, and "meh" in a win in the other.  At his best, he can do this or this.  There's about as much (and as little) evidence that Daniels can play QB in the NFL as there is for AJ McCarron, but AJ has 3' on Chase (and at this point, Chase may not have the "want to", some guys get comfortable playing the backup role)

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan