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How Can a 5 Year Vet QB NOT Know How To Read a Defense? A Different Viewpoint


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3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

How well was Brady reading the defense on the pick 6 we got?

Quite well actually.  Showed  cover 2 pre snap, post snap hyde stayed deep on the hash showing cover 2 still.  Play side route combination pressumably would block poyer.  Poyer played robber and jumped the route.  Simple goutcha

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Sorry, to long. 

4 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello,

This will be long and maybe boring but hopefully not stupid.

 

This will be about reading defenses and how the Bills might try to predict who a good QB will be which is apparently very hard.

I woke up this morning with the thought in my head, “How can a veteran QB not know how to read a defense?” I woke up thinking about football and the Bills QB search and the draft and so on, because there is something wrong with me. I was probably dreaming about it too (because let’s be honest, there must be something wrong with me).

 

Now everybody knows including me how hard it is for QB to learn to read defenses quickly because all you have to do is watch the games and maybe half of the starters can’t do it. And I bought a copy of an older NFL playbook off ebay one time and they are no picnic to understand. I never did get so I understood it fully.

So my thinking has always been that it takes a special talent to be able to do that so fast. I watched the game film of the San Diego game and it was plain that Phillip Rivers could read the defense and what the coverages were going to be about one second after the ball was snapped. After one second everyone had made their moves and he (and I with the benefit of rewind and slow motion) could see what the defensive pass coverage was going to be. And Philip Rivers killed us with it.

 

But for some reason this morning I was thinking how they could not know, and my line of thought then went along like this.

 

Figure if a guy treats the NFL like he has or had a full time job like you and me. The team pretty much owns them from August to January. So that is 5 months and figure in some weeks of vacation I will call it 6 months of being with the team full and vacation time.

 

If a man treats the other 6 months as a full time job, he would have five 8 or 9 hour days per week. I thought I would call a typical day being 2 hours working out and 6 hours of study. Say in one day he sits and analyzes two games of offensive plays. So he spends 3 hours on each game watching and studying and coming to understand the offensive plays in that game. There are about 130 offensive plays (65 each team) in a game. It might go slower at first but that gives him about 3 minutes per play to study it.

 

This is not a heavy workload here we are just talking about 2 hours of fitness and then the rest of a regular workday sitting in an easy chair watching football plays.

So if a man did that 26 weeks per year for 5 years, he would have seen 130 plays per day Times 5 days per week Times 26 weeks Times 5 years = 84,500 plays.

The defenses are complicated but they are not that complicated that a man shouldn’t have a pretty good idea what is going on after having seen it Eighty Four Thousand times.

 

And that doesn’t even count all the time they spend learning and being taught for all the months they are with the team.

 

When I think about it like that, it doesn’t seem like a stupid question to wonder how in the world could somebody not understand how to read a defense after seeing 84,500 plays?? (not counting training camp and practice and all that).

 

I don’t think you would have to be a genius. Do you?

 

Next I think about Peyton Manning. Here is a guy who won a Superbowl when his body was failing him and his head was more or less held on to his neck by bolts. That guy could read a defense and he is known for doing his work and watching film. I hate to mention it, but Tom Brady is known for doing his work and watching film. So maybe it is not a coincidence and is a very important trait for a quarterback to treat his job like a full time job, like you and me have, and do his work every day.

 

Getting back to the Bills I hope they look for a player who has the physical ability, who is durable, and who can throw with accuracy. And to pick between the guys who qualify on those dimensions, by getting the guy who is already mature and responsible enough to just go to work every day like a regular Joe. He doesn’t have to be a Superman phenomenon. I think maybe he just needs to be a guy who gets up every weekday, brushes his teeth, eats breakfast and then goes to work.

 

I have some hope that McBean will be successful picking up a guy like that because that is the sort of player they have been very focused on. I hope McBean have been very diligent looking very closely at each of the guys to see who is the one who got his homework done and took care of his responsibilities. That way they will have accurate information to go on come draft day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jobot said:

Totally agree.

 

I was just having this conversation the other day.  The fact that there are only 32 of these positions in the world available for employment... how is every qb not great at this?

 

I guess D-coordinators are also in high demand... but listening to Tony Romo rattle off the defensive breakdowns pre-snap after being out of the league for a year.... it just makes you wonder how this is possible.

This. Much of the time, Romo knows ahead of time what the possibilities are an explains them to us. And then we watch the quarterback not understand it.

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Imo there are 2 types of Qbs.  Ultra competative workaholics.  Average athletic abilty but are obsessive about there preperations.  Like Brady, and Brees. The other are the super athletic sevants.  Just naturals.  They see the feild perfect, during meetings are told you cant throw a pass here.  And their answer is why?  Well the window is too small.  Game comes play is called and the qb makes the throw where they shouldnt and its a touchdown. Like Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Farve.  Either style works but you need one of them.  Its hard to find who is really the first group.  Every prospect is coached up for the process now.  Get a supremly talented guy and coach them up if they have the mental fortitude and confidence.  As complicated and people want to make football its not that crazy.  More often than not teams call the same plays each week and you can derive the coverage by the location of the saftey.

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Meanie -

 

Short answer:  it simply isn't easy to do.  

 

For one thing, I've heard QBs say it takes four or five season ON THE FIELD before they really understood what the defense was doing.   So after a while all that off-the-field study your positing doesn't matter, it doesn't advance the learning of the QB.    You could study how to fly a plane for five years, but I'm not going up with you on your first solo flight.  

 

Learning to fly is an interesting comparison, because you CAN practice flying in a simulator.   There are no QB simulators, at least not yet.   Madden is on it's way to getting there, I suppose.   Some teams put cameras on the QBs head, put him in a scrimmage, then review the film afterward.   They can coach the guy about whether he's looking the right way, and looking fast enough.   But that's a long way from real experience.  

 

You have to train your brain to recognize and process information quickly, and the information is always different, always changing.   The pass rushers are coming from different places, depending on the defense and on who has missed his blocking assignment.   The defenders are playing zone, or man or a little of each, some are free lancing.    Oh, and the defense you're facing this week is different from the one you faced last week, and we know those week to week changes are important.   Players started complaining this season about how difficult it is to play on Thursday night because there's no time to prepare for the game. 

 

On top of all that, it's simply a matter of brains.   People don't all have the same level of computing power, and being an NFL QB requires some really high football IQ.   Most people can't do it. 

 

Oh, and anothr thing is the ability to operate under pressure.    Standing in the pocket is a highly pressurized environment, essentially standing in the middle of a battlefield while your comrades try to protect you the invading horde a couple of yards away.   It's very well know that many people behave and perform less well in a threatening environment.   Mistakes go way up under pressure like that.   That's why the military drills and drills and drills, to try to minimize mistakes under pressure.   But for the vast majority of military, they're drilling in something that is generally pretty simple and doesn't have nearly as many variables as an NFL QB faces.  

 

These guys have really speacialized, almost unique, skill sets.  

I don't think this is correct.   Kids now are working like crazy in high school, trying to learn this stuff.   There are plenty more guys with the dedication to the task that don't make it than there are guys that do.   Eli grew up in the same environment Peyton did.  Why isn't Eli as good?   

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

The only thing worse than dumb people is smart people with no common sense.

There's no such thing as common sense. For ALL of us, EVERYTHING has to be learned, at some point in your life.

 

Do you think that a brain surgeon has the same "common sense" as a waitress at Denny's? Could they switch places, and for the non-technical stuff, know what to do for the job? Do you think the other employees in Dennys, watching a brain surgeon working his first shift (with no training beforehand), would be looking at him and saying "WTF is he doing!? That makes no sense?" Lol

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10 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

EJ Manuel.

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The problem with this is that classroom prep is one thing, game time play is another.  The cutthroat nature of the NFL means that unless you're Andrew Luck, or a #1 pick, you will not get the time you need to learn and develop under game conditions.  Some QB's thrown in too early get so battered they're never the same (Timm Rosenbach, Trent Edwards), and others have the rug pulled from under them (Tebo, EJ).  Then the refrains begin, he never had it, he'll never learn.  Every now and then, you get a guy like Drew Brees, Rich Gannon, or Kurt Warner, who hits on success later in his career.  But the vast majority of QB's end up like Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Johnny Manziel, Jamarcus Russell, etc.  Bottom line, your brain has to be wired to see the D and make the correct throw in 2 seconds or less.  Good luck.  

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40 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

This is a great reply and I have thought exactly as you do.

 

But I will cut to the chase. Name a QB who is famous for his dedication to film study, that can't read a defense.

 

I have never heard it said that "Gee, he studies film for hours and hours 5 days a week all year round. But he just can't do it".

 

 

Who would say such a thing?   

 

"Coach, why is A starting over B?"

 

"Because B has studied for hours and hours and just doesn't get it."   

 

Nobody's going to make a public statement like that.   They just demote the guy.

 

Taylor is your case in point.   As you point out, they say he studies a LOT.   He's as serious about it as anyone would expect him to be.   He doesn't seem to get it.   He can make all the throws, he's mobile, and yet his pocket awareness isn't great and his decision making is suspect.     When he loses his job, the Bills aren't going to say "he studied hard but he couldn't do it."   They're going to say "Tyrod has been a great contributor to the organization and done some great things for us.   We just decided we needed to move in another direction."   You know that's what they'll say.  

 

As someone said, you can send me to medical as long as you want, but you aren't going to choose me to be your brain surgeon.   

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2 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

That is just what I am thinking.

I bet they do it like you say. Which is to say, not much.

Until this morning actually, I believed in the special almost magic talent model. With the Mannings and Brady's being the chosen ones.

But now I am thinking more like if they watched enough, anybody could read a defense. I think I could if I had five years. They just don't do it.

 

I was going to respond and then it got involved and then...but I'll try now.  Of course there are young QB who are great athletes but don't want to sit still and put in the work in the film room.  Johnny Football was the Extreme Poster Child fir this guy.  But let's hypothesize that our QB is a known film junky.  Reportedly our TT used to have to be chased out of the family's garage where he would be found breaking down film on VCR tapes instead of doing his homework or sleeping.

 

The key point to understand is that fundamentally, reading the D from film, maybe Coach's Film - is a fundamentally different process than learning to read the D in 1-2 seconds from field level behind the center's butt.  

 

But (see what I did there?) that's not even what the QB has to do.  He has to read the D in the context of the called play, the presnap read and adjustments, and then correctly interpret where that means he should go with the ball in that offense for that play.

 

It's sort of the difference between an algebra student methodically multiplying and subtracting and dividing and getting the correct answer and the "good at math" kid who doesn't think about the steps, he just tells you "the answer is 5" because the steps are accelerated and automatic to him.  Or the musician who spends hours practicing slowly, but still makes the same mistakes at tempo vs. the kid who can successfully speed things up.

 

The former can help with the latter, but it doesn't necessarily translate.   It may require a different sort of practice.  Like having a GoPro on the QB's helmet and filming from there, or flashing film of the "D" up for shorter and shorter times with the goal of reading it in 2 seconds. It also helps to ensure that QB get the "big picture" of things that matter from play to play.  (Romo was clearly there).  Just like math or music teachers, I'm betting coaches vary greatly in their ability to convey the "big picture" rather than the methodical step by step.  I mean, the most successful QB typically don't retire and become coaches.  They retire and play golf, or shill fake health programs for their business partner (see what I did there?) or something.  The guys who coach are often the ones who never progressed beyond the methodical multiple-subtract-divide analogy.

 

 I think that's why you get some very smart guys who reportedly work very hard at film and can break it down to perfection (like Ryan Fitzpatrick) but who make dumb calls all the time, and not just because his arm betrays him.  Reportedly, Fitz would go on his pre-snap read rather than read the D again and process it post-snap, which is why D's figured out he could be fooled and he became "Pickspatrick".

 

Of course, hard work at film helps anyone, which gets to the next point. 

1. If the offense changes from year to year, what's the QB supposed to study in that off-season?  He can get some basic stuff - Tampa 2 vs cover 3?  But he can't integrate it with the correct action in an offense that is gonna be developed by an OC who hasn't been hired yet.  That's why changing OCs is a big setback for a young QB
2. The CBA limiting offseason coaching contact was a poison pill for QB development.  Reportedly, Mike McCarthy and others used to hold extensive training for QB in the off season, which is one reason Aaron Rodgers became Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees became Drew Brees and the modern crop of young QB is struggling.

3. I suspect there's a business opportunity if someone could figure out the best ways to teach the kind of mental processing a young QB needs to perform pre and post snap to succeed in the NFL 

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1 hour ago, John in Jax said:

There's no such thing as common sense. For ALL of us, EVERYTHING has to be learned, at some point in your life.

 

Do you think that a brain surgeon has the same "common sense" as a waitress at Denny's? Could they switch places, and for the non-technical stuff, know what to do for the job? Do you think the other employees in Dennys, watching a brain surgeon working his first shift (with no training beforehand), would be looking at him and saying "WTF is he doing!? That makes no sense?" Lol

You're talking about the exact opposite of common sense. 

 

No I don't expect a brain surgeon to be able to waitress at denny's and vice versa but I do expect a person that is well know for being intelligent to be able to figure out how to turn on a  light without having to think about it.

 

An example of common sense that actually evades people:

7214525854_733237dd83_z.jpg

 

It's satire but it still applies.

Edited by The Wiz
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17 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

There are different levels/types of intelligence.

 

A scientist or policy-maker may have a high IQ but may need time to analyze information at hand before moving forward. Meanwhile, with lives at stake, a surgeon has to be able to make good decisions quickly. The same is true of police officers, firemen, etc.

 

Tyrod has shown repeatedly that he struggles to make proper decisions quickly. That does not mean that he is "dumb" -- just that the way in which his brain is wired, he is more calculating in his decision-making process than is required to be a successful QB at the NFL level.

 

No one doubts Ryan Fitzpatrick's IQ -- but he often made poor decisions on the fly. At least he was usually quick in making those decisions (good or bad).

 

After all, Jim Kelly wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed, but he was great at reading a defense and making quick (and usually "intelligent") decisions.

 

THIS

 

I can add a long string of numbers BUT I usually need pencil and paper (time). There are others that just look at the numbers and can add them quickly in their head.

 

THAT is how I look at the difference between QBs reading the defense. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

That and dumb people who are arrogant because they think they're very intelligent.

 

To quote the Loaf of Meat ... you took the words right out of my mouth.

 

Stupidity + Arrogance is the worst combination.

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19 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Coming from a guy who said Colton Schmidt is the reason we lost in Jax.

 

 

Quit trolling me bro'.  You man-love for me is very disturbing. 

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