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Keep the picks or just get a QB?


Virgil

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I’m down for trading up for our guy regardless of who he ends up being and regardless of the position. If we feel Mayfield is our guy. USE THE PICKS. If we feel Roquon Smith is our guy. USE THE PICKS. 

 

Now, if we’re going to use those picks and give up our entire draft to get a QB we better fire Rico the following day. I want Rico nowhere near our new QB.

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Does anybody remember the "comeback"game with Reich playing QB? ...........    Three things are needed for a QB to be successful.

#1 He has to be good

#2 He has to have a good supporting cast.

#3 He has to have a coach & system that fits his abilities.

 

Predicting if a college QB is good (for the pros) is partly some physical things that can be measured but is hard to evaluate because the quality of his teammates, coaches and opposition are uneven, hard to compare and difficult to project to the different pro level.  For a veteran pro player (FA or trade) much of this uncertainty is eliminated- you can see how he did against a defensive backfield with all good players. From college play, he played in many games where there were no pro-quality CB/S to throw against. ........ If this was so easy, then why are about 2/3 of all first round QB's essentially busts or career backups?

 

The supporting cast is really as important as the QB himself.   One aspect that our posters seem to ignore is that many good QB's never make it because the system usually puts them on bad teams. There are two main ways to get into this situation.  (1)  0-16 teams are bad, and they draft first. Superman as QB is not going to help much.   (2) Teams can also make themselves "bad" by giving up too many draft picks for the "savior" QB.  That starves the QB of a supporting cast. ....... In both these situations, you might have a good QB, but he looks bad and may regress.  He winds up unable to get into his receiver progression because he us running for his life.  When the 1st down running play gets blown up in the backfield, he has too many 2nd and 14 situations.  If there is no deep threat, the play-action pass is not respected and also the safety and linebackers plug holes for running plays.  He is playing from behind in the score and tries risky plays. ........   There are a lot of highly drafted QB's (looked great in college) who might be good as pro's but have been stuck in bad situations. 

 

#3  The coach and the system have to match the QB's abilities and the abilities of the team.  (right now TT's skill set is not where those things are probably going with the Bills).

 

I just can not see selling off 5 or so first and second round pick to take a crap shoot on a college QB and then sticking him on an inferior team.

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4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

The furthest I can see us moving up is by trading with the 49'ers or Colts. I just hope we get the best one of the bunch.

I don't want ANY of those veteran QB's. There's a reason why they are available and we already have a mediocre QB anyways. We need to aim higher.

 No, there is not "a reason" for their availability.  You probably mean "a reason", to mean that they are all poor QB's.  There are many other "reasons", why a veteran QB is available.  

 

[1] They may be coming from a poor team and are being gotten rid of to save the face of the owner/management team

[2] They may be coming from a poor team and are looking to get the hell out of Dodge  (Cousins anyone?)

[3] They might not be a good skill fit for the coaching staff- sort of like a 3-4 linebacker in a 4-3 scheme  (TT anyone?)

[4] They might be blocked by a superior QB and want to start and get big bucks elsewhere (Garappolo?)   

        By the way, have you ever noticed how really good teams can easily trade away a backup for a good return- and that guy just looks mediocre when        he plays with a mediocre team?

[5] They might be in a situation where the team somehow lucked into two top notch guys (Kemp/Lamonica?)

[6]  Some guys just take a while to "get it".  It might be a mental or maturity thing.

 

I do not know enough about the veterans available to peg any of them.  I could see some of them working out okay for the Bills to give time for a lower draft pick to develop.

16 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I also love how EVERY person that thinks the way of the OP is that 

 

yep gonna bust on QB but every pick used to get to take the QB is going to be a starter lol

It is easier to project an offensive lineman from college to pros than a QB.  For QB's it is about a 30% hit rate. For, say, offensive linemen, it is a 83.2% hit rate.

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People seem to read what I said wrong.  I never said a QB is not a part of the equation.  He is.  He's just not the only part.  To me the trenches, and QB are the fastest way to be competitive.  And I don't think it's mutually exclusive where one takes precedence over the other one.  I think it's equal and if you don't think this team is hurting in the trenches and want to sacrifice possible great trench players for a QB, then be prepared to get a lot worse before you get better.  Do we need a QB?  Yes.  Do we need trenches?  HELL YES.  Three picks for a QB just took away two trench players.  You can always run the rock, play great defense, and have a serviceable QB until you get THAT guy and be very competitive.  But you are NOT going to get a Franchise QB and have terrible trenches and be competitive.  The saying is as real as it gets.  You win the game when you can win UP FRONT.

 

I'm all for taking a QB.  But I'm not for sacrificing talented trenches for a QB.  So I'm for keeping the picks, stacking the trenches and if one of those top guys falls within range to where you don't have to do a desperate move, sure, you take him.  

Edited by NewEraBills
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I have done a 180 on the qb position .  My new thought is to get the very best vet you can get to start each season.  You may end up using someone for a few years or maybe only 1 year.  In the meantime draft one every year.  If you use your first because you love the guy great, if not take your Peterman type flier in the midrounds.  The one think I would not do is is make one of those mega trades to get one.  

Next season would look something like this.  Alex smith the starter , Peterman, number two and your draft pick number 3.  Plus 4 or 5 starting caliber rookies added to the roster

if you make the mega trade you are giving up your two first this and one first next year at a min.  

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On 1/4/2018 at 3:38 AM, LeGOATski said:

Keep the picks AND get a QB. Have him sit behind Peterman for a bit, if necessary. I like Rudolph in the late first, if he's there.

 

Sit behind Peterman????? 

 

If we draft a QB he better be an upgrade over Peterman!

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24 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

Sit behind Peterman????? 

 

If we draft a QB he better be an upgrade over Peterman!

It'd be nice, but you know it's a unique situation with each guy. If they want him to observe first, it doesn't mean he's worse or will never be better than Peterman.

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On 1/5/2018 at 7:59 AM, Virgil said:

 

Jury is still out on those guys. I’m not sold on Mahomes or Watson yet. We won’t know for a few years.  

 

I was glad we passed on them, made the playoffs, and have the ammo we do now in this draft. 

Watson had a phenomenal rookie season before it was cut short by injury.  He had 19 TD in 6 games...Tyrod had 14 in 14.....Mahomes in his pre-season games and the final start showed that he can sling the ball downfield and win.   I think both these QBs are going to be starting in this league for a long time.....

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FWIW, a guy - and I can’t remember the name so I don’t have a link - took the Bill Parcels criteria and separated all the “major” names for the Draft and only 2 checked all 7 boxes: Mayfield and Rudolph. 

 

Out of those two, I’ll take Rudolph and think he’s a good fit for the Bills in the current Offense.

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All QBs are no more than 50% to be franchise QBs that you would be happy with. There are only two this year that have more than a decent chance at it, and we are very unlikely to get either.

 

What none of us know, the people in charge of the team don't even know yet because they still have a couple months of studying tape and interviewing coaches and players and working them out, is how the next level of Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Rudolph, Finley, etc. are going to end up rated by the Bills, and how far, say, the number one guy is ahead of the number two guy.

 

We also have no clue what other teams are going to do as far as trades ahead of us. And no clue what teams are going to do in free agency with veteran QBs that will dramatically change their draft plans.

 

So it's mostly folly to say we should do this or that now, with player A or B. It's fun to guess or wish but to say we need to do this or that is somewhat foolish. Let it play out. Make QB your number one priority even if keeping Tyrod. Get a veteran stop gap (Taylor, Smith, a Viking, whatever) before the draft, and then go for it depending on which one or two of the second level guys you like/love.

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