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Reddy Freddy

Playoff Scenarios

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Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place.  I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:

 

1) Bills win 2 of their final 3

2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend

3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville  

Edited by Reddy Freddy

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Might as well have the rules posted.

 

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

  1. The division champion with the best record.
  2. The division champion with the second-best record.
  3. The division champion with the third-best record.
  4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
  5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
  6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

  1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
  2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
  3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
  4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
  5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

  1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
  2. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
  3. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  4. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  5. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

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31 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Win out and pray for help

I was saying that until I saw the magical update via NFL.com that put the Bills in the 6th seed.  

 

Just win out  should do it.   For every loss we will need additional help.  

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1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

I was saying that until I saw the magical update via NFL.com that put the Bills in the 6th seed.  

 

Just win out  should do it.   For every loss we will need additional help.  

Even if they win out they dont control their destiny. So at this pont it is just easier saying win iut and get help. 

 

However really is is win Phins and have Tenn drop 2 (one has to be Jax)

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3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Even if they win out they dont control their destiny. So at this pont it is just easier saying win iut and get help. 

 

However really is is win Phins and have Tenn drop 2 (one has to be Jax)

these scenarios are forked

 

I just had Cleveland defeat the Ravens and that caused the Bills to drop out of the WC 

Nothing is a lock until I see the final results in 2 or 3 weeks

 

Step 1 - Defeat the Dolphins 

 

Strength of Victory will kill this team!!! 

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4 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

these scenarios are forked

 

I just had Cleveland defeat the Ravens and that caused the Bills to drop out of the WC 

Nothing is a lock until I see the final results in 2 or 3 weeks

 

Step 1 - Defeat the Dolphins 

 

Bills cannot beat the Ravens unless ravens finish 8-8. Every tie between Bills and Ravens, Ravens get in because of common opponents tie breaker (thanks cincy loss). 

 

The easy way in is the Tenn angle 

 

or get to 10-6 and most like you are in at 10-6

Edited by MAJBobby

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5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Bills cannot beat the Ravens unless ravens finish 8-8. Every tie between Bills and Ravens, Ravens get in because of common opponents tie breaker (thanks cincy loss). 

 

The easy way in is the Tenn angle 

 

or get to 10-6 and most like you are in at 10-6

 

I get a different outcome.

IF the 9-7 Ravens lose to either the Colts or Bengals they end up with a 4-1 Common games played which is the same as the Bills if the Bills beat the Dolphins twice.

SOVictory can be won by the Bills.

 

What am I missing?

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9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Bills cannot beat the Ravens unless ravens finish 8-8. Every tie between Bills and Ravens, Ravens get in because of common opponents tie breaker (thanks cincy loss). 

 

The easy way in is the Tenn angle 

 

or get to 10-6 and most like you are in at 10-6

I am not arguing with you.    I'm just going with what the ESPN playoff machine tells me.  

 

We're not making it to the WC.  I have already resigned myself to that reality.   

but a guy can dream 

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I think Tennessee is our target to beat out. They can lose 2 out of the next 3 games if not all 3. They sit in the 5th spot currently at 8-5. Conference Record of 7-4.  

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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

Might as well have the rules posted.

 

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

  1. The division champion with the best record.
  2. The division champion with the second-best record.
  3. The division champion with the third-best record.
  4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
  5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
  6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

  1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
  2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  4. Strength of victory.
  5. Strength of schedule.
  6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best net points in conference games.
  9. Best net points in all games.
  10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

  1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
  2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in conference games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

  1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
  2. In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
  3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
  4. To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
  5. To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

  1. Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.
  2. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.
  3. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  4. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.
  5. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

 

Reading this is like breaking the DaVinci code haha

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3 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Reading this is like breaking the DaVinci code haha

 

Nice.

 

I spent a lot of time in my career with math and statistical analysis.

Every time I look at these tie-breaker rules I wonder what the odds would be that 2 teams make it to "COIN TOSS".

It's got to astronomical.

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Patriots lose last 3, Bills win last 3 and beat the Cheatriots by 21. We would win the AFC East I believe! One can only dream 😂

Edited by billsfan_34
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42 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Patriots lose last 3, Bills win last 3 and beat the Cheatriots by 21. We would win the AFC East I believe! One can only dream 😂

 

And BOY OH BOY is that ever a dream for the ages:lol:

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the only way the Pats lose 3 in a row is if their new plane crashes.  everything is made with cheap chinese parts these days so you never know.  otherwise even if Brady gets hurt they still go 1-2 with Hoyer

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21 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

the only way the Pats lose 3 in a row is if their new plane crashes.  everything is made with cheap chinese parts these days so you never know.  otherwise even if Brady gets hurt they still go 1-2 with Hoyer

If Hoyer was to play who is the 1 loss too? Us? 

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32 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

the only way the Pats lose 3 in a row is if their new plane crashes.  everything is made with cheap chinese parts these days so you never know.  otherwise even if Brady gets hurt they still go 1-2 with Hoyer

Not airplane parts fortunately 

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1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

Patriots lose last 3, Bills win last 3 and beat the Cheatriots by 21. We would win the AFC East I believe! One can only dream 😂

dream yeah.... I am headed to Hollywood as someone needs to pinch me.........

 

I don't think points matter as div record would then favor Bills over Cheats. 

Edited by cba fan
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6 minutes ago, cba fan said:

dream yeah.... I am headed to Hollywood as someone needs to pinch me.........

 

I don't think points matter as div record would then favor Bills over Cheats. 

Thanks- I wasnt 100 percent sure about all the tie breakers. This will never happen tho.

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The Pats never lose even 2 in a row............they got beat by Miami last week, which means someone is going to get the holy hell beat out of them this week.

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