Draft a QB or pay for one?

[Fadingpain]

It would depend entirely on who the FA QB is going to be.

 

He would have to be pretty darned good right now to make me give up on drafting our own QB, which is really the right way to go about doing it.

 

Not sure Eli (at this point in his career) or Cousins are compelling enough to make me pull the trigger on either.

 

 

[LeGOATski]

Build your team around a good draft pick. You find a kid with a good head on his shoulders and the talent to make all the throws. Then you commit to developing him. He doesn't need to be a polished prospect right away. 

 

I like Mason Rudolph as that guy and hopefully the Bills won't have to sell the farm to get him. 

[ddaryl]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd like to put it out there as "crazy talk" that the best answer might be....do both!

 

I thought the Eagles were pretty nuts when they traded for Sam Bradford while they had Nick Foles.  I thought StL got the better end of that swap.

I thought they were even nuttier when, having traded for Sam Bradford, they signed him to an extension - THEN traded up for Wentz.

 

But how do they look now?  They got a 1st and 4th round pick for Bradford.  Wentz has been playing well.  And they were able to resign Foles as a capable backup.

 

 

Its a good deal if you can trade for a QB who has a contract in place that doesn't hamstring your salray cap for years and if that QB stil has some worth when you want to dump and let your drafted guy take over. Philly hit pay dirt but would the Bills be able to accomplish the same...  or do we end up holding the bag

 

A FA QB like COusins wouldn't be a tradeable asset because he will break the bank... ALex Smith doesn't have many years left to be worthy of a 1st rd trade if we aquired

 

After that I don't know who or what would or is available

Edited December 12, 2017 by ddaryl

[Bing Bong]

Both

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'd like to put it out there as "crazy talk" that the best answer might be....do both!

 

I thought the Eagles were pretty nuts when they traded for Sam Bradford while they had Nick Foles.  I thought StL got the better end of that swap.

I thought they were even nuttier when, having traded for Sam Bradford, they signed him to an extension - THEN traded up for Wentz.

 

But how do they look now?  They got a 1st and 4th round pick for Bradford.  Wentz has been playing well.  And they were able to resign Foles as a capable backup.

Don't forget Seahawks with Flynn and Wilson.

[bills_fan]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Good QBs don't come from the Free Agent Market. 

 

We need to draft and develop our own guy. 

 

Drew Brees says hi!

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, bills_fan said:

 

Drew Brees says hi!

That just shows how often it does not happen

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, bills_fan said:

 

Drew Brees says hi!

 

One guy in 20 years. 

 

Anyone else we should have signed or did you just prove my point for me? 

Edited December 12, 2017 by jrober38

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, aristocrat said:

 

what is brees record over the last few years? need a team around the guy to succeed. if we can get him for nothing or very little. then surround with a draft class like last year we will be on our way to long success

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

[SoCal Deek]

These things all come down to timing.  The Bills do NOT have a core to build around with a veteran free agent QB.  He will have peaked out right about the time the other stock pile of 2018 Picks is coming of age, and you'll be right back where you started.  Take a QB, some O Lineman and a MLB in the Draft, and let them get up to speed together.  You build a team from the center of the field.

[aristocrat]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

 

i meant as far as trading for his rights if that's what it comes down to.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There is zero possibility anyone gets Cousins for nothing or very little.  So you can scratch that option officially off the list

Yeah, getting a guy like Brees or even a lesser talent, but still viable QB like Alex Smith, requires lucky timing. It has to be a guy who has shown promise, but isn't really on the radar.

 

The only such prospects I can think of right now are Keenum and Brissett; maybe Bortles.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Eastcoastlegacy said:

These are estimates.

 

Right now, looking at standings our 1st from KC is 16 (1000pts),  our pick is 20 (850pts).  Our second round picks will be worth about 420 and 380.  The list of teams ahead of us: 

 

1. (3000pts)  Browns: QB is very likely (new GM, Kizer underwhelming)

2.  (2600pts) Giants: QB is very likely

3.  (2200pts) 49ers: QB is possible (but less likely due to Jimmy)

5.  (1700pts) Broncos: QB is possible (no sign they are sold on Lynch)

9.  (1350pts) Redskins: QB is necessary if they lose Cousins

10.  (1300) Jets: quite probable

11.  (1250) Bengals: possible

 

A move up to 3rd or 4th pick would require both firsts, and a second.  and that gets you the third QB off the board.  Is anyone here sold on the idea that the third selected QB in the draft is worth 2 first round picks and 1 or 2 second round picks?  Is one first and one second round pick worth trading for the 4th choice of QB in the draft?

 

2017: 3rd qb: Mahomes, 4th QB: kizer

2016: 3rd qb: Paxton Lynch, 4th: Connor Cook

2015: 3rd qb: Bryce Petty, 4th: Garret Grayson

 

And yes, I know there are better QBs in the 2017, 16, 15 drafts than those listed above, but they were taken later and wouldn't need to be acquired by a trade-up.

 

I'm not sure selling the farm for 3rd choice is the way to go.

 

 

 

 

49ers are 100% out of the QB market.  Jimmy is already 2-0 as the starter with over 600 yards passing with Marquise Goodwin as his #1 WR.  Think about that.

 

Broncos are at a win now moment, they will most likely not take a QB in top 10 and will go get a vet they feel they can win with.  The recently won the SB with the worst starting QB ranking in the NFL that year between Manning and Brock, and the worst performance in SB history by a winning QB.  They know if they can get solid QB play they can compete right now, and Elway wants to win now.  Guys like Tyrod, Smith, the odd man out in Minn (Bridgewater, Keenum, or Bradford), etc I think are more likely plays for Denver.  And if Giants new regime decides to move on from Eli too, then I think Eli is probably a sure fire lock to be in Denver to follow in his brothers footsteps for a late SB trophy.

 

Browns 100% go QB IMO.  GM knows QB is the highest priority.

 

Giants are not a lock to go QB and I think they probably won't, not at least in the top 10.  Remember, new GM and HC will come in and Eli also lost all his WR's this year.  This team isn't that far off if it hadn't gotten hurt.  They may look to make one more run with Eli and their injured players back, so I think there is a GOOD chance they go OL, RB or some other position with their first pick to try and make a rebound next year.  

 

Redskins will go QB if they lose Cousins, but I am still not convinced they will move on from Cousins.  So this is a "who knows" type scenario currently.

 

Jets I also agree likely go QB unless there isn't one they like enough available when they pick and target one in the 2nd.  McCown has played well for them, so they may look to the secondary with that first pick and grab a guy in the 2nd.  Their secondary is a train wreck.

 

Bengals I seriously doubt go QB.  I think they will fire the staff and bring someone in to see if they can get that team over the hump before going after a Dalton replacement...unless they blow the whole thing up and trade Dalton to a contender like Denver.

[bills_fan]

My point with Brees is that if the Bills braintrust believes Cousins is the next Brees, go all in.

 

CLE and NYG are taking QBs at 1 and 2.  So, at best, you are getting the third best QB in the draft class.  How many draft classes have 3 franchise QBs?  Not many...last one I can think of off the top of my head is 2004 (Eli, Rivers and Ben).  That was the year we took Losman.  Nothing will set this franchise back more than giving up all those picks and ending up with JP Losman part 2.

 

EDIT: I mean...that list is ugly for the "third" franchise QB....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by bills_fan

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

i meant as far as trading for his rights if that's what it comes down to.

 

Ah, gotcha...ok I see what you mean then

[SoCal Deek]

If the Bills want to draft a QB they should do it.  If you look back over the last decade, there is no sure thing at ANY round of the draft when it comes to the QB position.  Stay right where you are...pick the best there when you're number is called.  Or...if you get a chance to move up a 'couple' of slots, do so...but do NOT sell everything to get some kid who is a 50/50 shot at best of working out.

[Eastcoastlegacy]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

49ers are 100% out of the QB market.  Jimmy is already 2-0 as the starter with over 600 yards passing with Marquise Goodwin as his #1 WR.  Think about that.

 

Broncos are at a win now moment,

 

Giants are not a lock to go QB and I think they probably won't, not at least in the top 10.  

As crazy as it sounds there is some talk in the Bay area that the 49ers may be showing Jimmy off because they may try to leverage him for a first round pick when they go after Cousins still.  That would open up an opportunity for us potentially, but also any other team sold on one of these guys to jump up.  I will admit though, in my opinion this is very, very unlikely.  

 

Broncos might want to be in win now mode, but they aren't.  They lost their epic SB defense when Phillips walked away, and I'm not convinced Vance Joseph is a guy who has a back-up plan.  

 

The writing is on the wall for the Giants.  They may not want to take a QB but I think there is a good understanding that Manning is winding down.  If they return to form next year, where will their next franchise QB come from when they are back to picking in the 15-20 range?  They will have a chance to sit in QB purgatory with us.  They have an opportunity to take a QB now that will set them up in the future even if they want to roll with Manning for another year or two.  GB was happy to take Rodgers with Favre in place and was in no hurry to start him.   NYG would have that luxury.

 

The bottom line is there are no sure things, we all know that.  I do think the Bills need to draft a QB in the first or second, no doubt.  However, I would not advise trading everything to get the third "best" option.  We should stay put and take the best of the lot, and hopefully improve our situation with a reasonable Vet FA.

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, Eastcoastlegacy said:

As crazy as it sounds there is some talk in the Bay area that the 49ers may be showing Jimmy off because they may try to leverage him for a first round pick when they go after Cousins still.  That would open up an opportunity for us potentially, but also any other team sold on one of these guys to jump up.  I will admit though, in my opinion this is very, very unlikely.  

 

Broncos might want to be in win now mode, but they aren't.  They lost their epic SB defense when Phillips walked away, and I'm not convinced Vance Joseph is a guy who has a back-up plan.  

 

The writing is on the wall for the Giants.  They may not want to take a QB but I think there is a good understanding that Manning is winding down.  If they return to form next year, where will their next franchise QB come from when they are back to picking in the 15-20 range?  They will have a chance to sit in QB purgatory with us.  They have an opportunity to take a QB now that will set them up in the future even if they want to roll with Manning for another year or two.  GB was happy to take Rodgers with Favre in place and was in no hurry to start him.   NYG would have that luxury.

 

The bottom line is there are no sure things, we all know that.  I do think the Bills need to draft a QB in the first or second, no doubt.  However, I would not advise trading everything to get the third "best" option.  We should stay put and take the best of the lot, and hopefully improve our situation with a reasonable Vet FA.

 

I think the Jimmy thing is just crazy conspiracy theory.  Outside of that, don't really disagree with anything you said.  Elway is just not a patient guy and he understands his window is close to closing.  With how competitive he is, I think he is going to stick with trying to win now, but thats strictly just my opinion of course.  

 

Giants situation is completely dependent on who they hire of course.  If they feel they can win early with Eli and their guys back, they may elect to prioritize the OL (which would be good for any future young QB anyway) or the run game and maybe grab a young QB in the 2nd to 4th rounds to try and groom for the future.  I do think they take a prospect at QB, but we won't know where until they new staff is hired and hear their near term plans.

 

But again, pretty much agree with you on most accounts, especially since there are no sure things.  I do think the Niners are 100% out of the QB market though despite what crazy rumors there are.  Jimmys short resume looks good in NE and SF so far.

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, bills_fan said:

My point with Brees is that if the Bills braintrust believes Cousins is the next Brees, go all in.

 

CLE and NYG are taking QBs at 1 and 2.  So, at best, you are getting the third best QB in the draft class.  How many draft classes have 3 franchise QBs?  Not many...last one I can think of off the top of my head is 2004 (Eli, Rivers and Ben).  That was the year we took Losman.  Nothing will set this franchise back more than giving up all those picks and ending up with JP Losman part 2.

 

EDIT: I mean...that list is ugly for the "third" franchise QB....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes

 

The next Drew Brees is Baker Mayfield.

[Steptide]

I would say it depends on who's available. I have no interest in cousins. However if luck was available and fully healthy, I would consider that. 

[John from Riverside]

I think that people need to come to terms with the fact that if they do want to move up to get one of the top qbs....its gonna take a lot of chips.

 

We will however have plenty of free agency salary cap to spend to fill holes

 

Im thinking Both 1sts and a high pick next year.   But if it fills the most important position on the field at a cheap contract?