keepthefaith Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) The McD punt was awful at the time. Made it appear he was playing for a tie. Worst offensive call of the game IMO was bringing in Webb in the first half 4th and 2 or something like that and splitting Peterman out wide. Just give the ball to McCoy there and don't try to get cute. Edited December 11, 2017 by keepthefaith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said: If it's close that yard is impossible to spot. We all know it's going up the middle. So. Most teams rush up the middle on a good day. Again there wasn't enough time to punt, we were fortunate to win. If Webb doesn't make that big play to Thompson we probably end up in a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Well one will never know if going for it on 4th was the right play. If they fail to get it, then what happens? Colts score? They punt it back anyway, only deeper this time? It worked out. They won. On to Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, THEHARDTRUTH said: Feel free to break it down for us John Forbes Nash. Exactly. People quoting odds and probabilities either are refusing to articulate how they arrive there (not likely) or just blindly using some talking points they’ve heard from people or seems on espn’s gamecast. Heres what I found about that ... “Win probability measures the chance that a team will win a game, given a particular combination of circumstances, including score, time remaining, field position and down and distance. Win probability is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.” So, basically people quoting probabilities and “math” are making the argument that the models scernarios resemble what we saw today. Haha. Not too smart of an argument if you ask me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 1 minute ago, dubs said: Exactly. People quoting odds and probabilities either are refusing to articulate how they arrive there (not likely) or just blindly using some talking points they’ve heard from people or seems on espn’s gamecast. Heres what I found about that ... “Win probability measures the chance that a team will win a game, given a particular combination of circumstances, including score, time remaining, field position and down and distance. Win probability is based on a model built on actual outcomes of NFL games from recent seasons that featured similar circumstances.” So, basically people quoting probabilities and “math” are making the argument that the models scernarios resemble what we saw today. Haha. Not too smart of an argument if you ask me. Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber.... Just sayin.. And that is coming from a Polak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 31 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said: I would disagree - I think this fits right into his methodical approach. If you analyze every potential outcome - you find the punt slightly lessens your chance to win, but it also significantly lessens your chance to lose in that game. Going for it and converting - increased your chance to win over punting, but getting stopped would have greatly increased your chance of losing and would have nearly eliminated a shot at winning. For the season - the Bills were 2 for 10 on 4th downs and were now 0-2 in the game so based upon probability they have been converting at a below 20% clip and they had a bunch of runs for no yardage throughout the game. I think if the game had been 40 to 40 and the Bills were 7 for 10 on the season and 3 for 3 in the game - maybe McDermont makes a different choice - maybe not, but his approach tells me all of those factors matter in the decision. All that matters today was winning. Slightly lessening your chance to win is the wrong choice when a loss or tie is catastrophic in your season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 1 minute ago, PolishDave said: Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber.... Just sayin.. And that is coming from a Polak! Haha. Well, then it should be easy to explain. Please enlighten us with your position, please use some actual data since you seem to love saying you have it. Or at least explain how these models are applicable to the game today. Fire away. Edited December 11, 2017 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, PolishDave said: Hate to break it to you bro, but with every one of these posts you make yourself look dumber and dumber.... Just sayin.. And that is coming from a Polak! Why do you say that? He is right. There are no statistical probabilities for 6" of snow, Starting LT inactive, 3rd string QB, and the game being a must win to stay in the playoff hunt. When you find those stats please let me know. And just to be clear I thought the Bills should have gone for it but I understand why they didnt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreigner Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 The OP was right, even though it turned out okay. What about not having a backup halfback, which some of us were screaming about from game one, or maybe you believe Tolbert is the man. And the QB was basically a special teams guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 I don't know if it was the right call or not. I'd like to know the probabilities of winning on that decision. Go for it and don't make it, you're giving the Colts the short field with the wind. They gain 25 yards and they have a shot at a field goal. They gain 15 yards and punt and the Bills are pinned deep. I think if you calculate the probabilities of winning, McD may have made the right decision. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderingsquid Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Are other fan bases this irate after wins? We were on our 3rd string QB!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, NoSaint said: All that matters today was winning. Slightly lessening your chance to win is the wrong choice when a loss or tie is catastrophic in your season. Can you tell me how punting the ball instead of going for it on 4th and 1 in those conditions lessens your chances of winning with almost 4 min to go? If they go for it and dont get it, most likely the game is over since the Colts take over around the 40. Then everyone hates that decision. I wanted them to go for it but my opinion was based on me being a risk taker. When the punt team went out I thought it was him being safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said: Can you tell me how punting the ball instead of going for it on 4th and 1 in those conditions lessens your chances of winning with almost 4 min to go? If they go for it and dont get it, most likely the game is over since the Colts take over around the 40. Then everyone hates that decision. I wanted them to go for it but my opinion was based on me being a risk taker. When the punt team went out I thought it was him being safe. Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it. How are you measuring “less likely”? Not being a jerk, just don’t know if I agree (in this very specific scenario, not generally) and that argument seems to be light on evidence to support it, despite alluding to math, probabilities, and chances constantly. Edited December 11, 2017 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Of course it was right choice. And a gutsy call to punt. He knew all you rubes would be attacking him, how much more balls do you want out of him! McD has quite a set to punt in that sitaution! Punting=totally gutsy call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsfanAZ Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Unless you are arguing that you were in favor of a move that made you less likely to win, you agree with me. Throw any window dressing on it you want—- but you thought the right choice to win was go for it. My choice is based on my personality and my job not relying on it. IF they didnt make it, it doesnt reflect badly on me. In his shoes with getting feed back from the guys playing the game, not sure I would have gone for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 People are talking about the odds favoring going for it vs punting, probabilities, quoting some NY Times website and so on. What yesterday's game and decision were would be considered as statistical outliers. The type of game yesterday was like 8 standard deviations away from the mean. i did not like the decision at the time. With reflection, it was correct and not just because they won. They had over 4 minutes left. In a game where each team had had one decent drive. The game situation clearly favored the defense. Pinning the down in their end opened up three potential ways to win. A safety becomes a real possibility. Plus you stop them done there you are potentially closer to FG range or a TD. A turnover down there, a real possibility given the conditions, also pretty much wins the game. In the end the decision got them an extra 14 yards. Not insignificant given the conditions. He trusted his players to make plays on D. They did. And on offense. And they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 7 hours ago, NoSaint said: If if I decide to dump my retirement fund into lotto tix it’s still incredibly lucky if I win. We’re talking odds not outcome. Winning the lottery and the Colts punting on that day are slightly different odds. Again, on that day with that weather vs that QB, punting and going for it are about the same odds of winning. You are pretty confident you will get the ball back with over 2 minutes around your 40 yard line. On a clear day punting there is always the wrong decision IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 Mike Rodak ESPN Staff Writer Quote Bills coach Sean McDemott said Sunday of his decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Colts' 41-yard line with 4:13 left in overtime, "Field position. That was big in this game with the conditions the way they were. I felt confident in our defense, [that] if we were able to pin them deep that we would get off the field and get the ball back, which we were able to do." You got lucky this time Sean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said: Lol field position? It was 4th and 1 from their 39. Doesn't get much better then that in terms of field position. Bad call that worked out. Pick 1: 4th and 1 at opponents 41 with 4:13 remaining 1st and 10 at own 35 with 2:32 remaining (should have been over 3 minutes). Worst part about the decision to punt is using a timeout 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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