Jump to content

Reasons The Drought Has Continued Excluding The Bills Themselves


corta765

Recommended Posts

Sorry, but the Drought is all on the Bills themselves, and that's particularly evident with the argument about the Patriots.   If the Bills FO was seriously interested in making the playoffs, they would have built better teams than they did over the years.    In 8 of the 17 Drought years, 2 more Bills wins and 2 fewer Pats wins would not have even given the Bills a winning record.  In 2004 the Bills lost to the Stillers' backups in the final game of the season; that's all on them.  In 2008, the Carp won the division with a record of 11-5.  Even if the Bills had swept the Brady-less Patriots, the best they could have done was 9-7 which wouldn't have gotten them into the playoffs because NE missed the WC with an 11-5 record.   The only time that 2 wins over the Pats would have definitely put the Bills into the Patriots was in 2002 when they would have won the division.  In 2014, they actually won the season finale against NE, so sweeping NE would have given them a 10-6 record, so getting a WC would depend upon winning the tie breaker against Baltimore.  In 2015, the Bills would have vied with the Pats, the Jests, and the Stillers for the last WC with 10-6 records.

 

The Patriots vs the Bills records since the Drought began:

 

2001: Patriots 11-5, Bills 3-13

2002: Jests 9-7, Patriots 9-7, Carp 9-7, Bills 8-8 

2003: Patriots 14-2, Bills 6-10  

2004: Patriots 14-2, Bills 9-7

2005: Patriots 10-6, Bills 5-11 

2006: Patriots 12-4, Bills 7-9 

2007: Patriots 16-0, Bills 7-9

2008: Patriots 11-5, Bills 7-9

2009: Patriots 10-6, Bills 6-10

2010: Patriots 14-2, Bills 4-12

2011: Patriots 13-3, Bills 6-10

2012: Patriots 12-4, Bills 6-10

2013: Patriots 12-4, Bills 6-10

2014: Patriots 12-4, Bills 9-7

2015: Patriots 12-4, Bills 8-8

2016: Patriots 14-2, Bills 7-9

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasting draft picks is the single leading cause to the drought.  This team no matter who the GM, consistently trades up and wastes picks.  And they have done it in the first and second rounds multiple times.  The easiest path, not the sole path, to consistent winning in the NFL is to draft well.  To draft well, you need more not less draft picks.  The draft is far more lottery than science.  The more times you pick players the better chance you have of finding a great player at any position.

 

Second, is prioritizing skill players over OL and DL.  The Bills have taken their fair share of lineman high in the draft - M. Williams, Dareus, Wood, and Maybin.  But they have wasted very high picks on marginal QBs and RB's when the team was loaded with them.  

 

The Bills have set themselves up to have multiple picks in multiple rounds for the next several years if they play the draft smart.  There is no QB worth trading up for in this draft. Let a QB fall to you, move down at least once per year(preferably twice), and rebuild the lines.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Having the Pats in the same division has been a consistent problem.  The Jets and Phins succeeded a few times, maybe because they were a little better at finding a QB, and having better drafts, and sometimes having better coaches.  Not great QBs or great drafts or great coaches, just better than the Bills.

 

If you and somebody else are both being chased by a bear, you don't have to be faster than the bear, you just have to be faster than the other guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main factor in the drought other than the Bills own failure to address the QB position successfully is simple : Tom Brady was drafted ( as a sixth round afterthought)by the Patriots. If you analyze it closely, it can't be anything else. If you say the longevity of the Pats dominance and dynastic run, it comes back to Brady. There should be no special reverence given to this as it relates to dominant eras by other NFL franchises . That is , it's not likely any better than those by San Francisco , Dallas et al. The only difference is that the main characters involved ; head coach , quarterback, ownership have decided ( smartly) to stay together. It's easy to envision the 80's and 90's niners or Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys having a longer period of Championship success than they did, but human nature got in the way. The genius Bill Walsh retired from the NFL, Montana was traded due to the presence of Young and Jimmy Johnson butted heads with the heavy handed Jerry Jones. If one wishes to bestow admiration on Bill Belichick above all others , it can only be for his unprecedented arrogance. For persistently sticking around as Coach when all his predecessors have gotten bored or tried to achieve the highest success as a GM or some other pursuit. Credit should also go to Kraft, the drunkard owner. For realizing the franchise's astounding good fortune with their gee- wiz stumble on the unheralded Brady. He's kept quietly in the background , unlike other owners in the midst of football dynasties. It still all reverts to the presence of Brady, without which none of the success would likely exist. 

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The QB issues are all on them. There are hundreds of QBs at the collegiate level. Literally hundreds. If your scouting department can't get a guy they like every year at QB outside of the top 3 picks then something is terribly wrong with your front office. Flacco, Dalton, Cousins, Carr, Garoppolo, Wilson, Keenum are all much better options than what we have currently. None of them we're picked even in the top 15 of the draft. We have seemingly endless top 10 picks and yet? We draft Losman, Edwards and Manuel in the 17 year drought. 3 QBs in 17 years in the top 3 rounds. If your franchise's leadership can't see it's a QB driven league and go in with more than 1 QB on it's big board every year and actually pull the trigger on a guy when you know you don't have one, that's on the team.

 

Leodis McKelvin - 11th, Flacco 18th

Aaron Williams - 34th, Dalton 35th

TJ Grahmn - 69th, Wilson 75th, Cousins 102nd, Keenum undrafted

Watkins 4th (trade up), Carr 36th, Garoppolo 62nd (honorable mention Bridgewater 32nd)

 

I could go on (Rodgers comes to mind) but that's plenty I think.

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Dadonkadonk said:

Wasting draft picks is the single leading cause to the drought.  This team no matter who the GM, consistently trades up and wastes picks.  And they have done it in the first and second rounds multiple times.  The easiest path, not the sole path, to consistent winning in the NFL is to draft well.  To draft well, you need more not less draft picks.  The draft is far more lottery than science.  The more times you pick players the better chance you have of finding a great player at any position.

 

Second, is prioritizing skill players over OL and DL.  The Bills have taken their fair share of lineman high in the draft - M. Williams, Dareus, Wood, and Maybin.  But they have wasted very high picks on marginal QBs and RB's when the team was loaded with them.  

 

The Bills have set themselves up to have multiple picks in multiple rounds for the next several years if they play the draft smart.  There is no QB worth trading up for in this draft. Let a QB fall to you, move down at least once per year(preferably twice), and rebuild the lines.  

The wasting of draft picks can be directly attributed to the constant coaching changes.  With a change of coaches/GM, there is a change in philosophy and with that comes wasted draft picks if the previously drafted players do not fit into the new scheme.

 

And as Bill in NYC would love to say,  "We spent too many 1s round picks on DBs" and then we don't re-sign them after their first contract.  

 

The other issue is the Bills staying in the Mediocrity part of the standings...They are never at the rock-bottom or at the top...So they miss out the opportunity to get a blue chip prospect.   


And finally, when they had chance to take QBs, they took the wrong one.  If it is a QB driven league, you got to get the QB right!!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, corta765 said:

Obviously the Bills have done a spectacular job at creating their own barriers so they have missed the playoffs for 17 straight years pushing 18 now. That said I wanted to lay out some factors that are not the Bills fault that have helped to impede the Bills making the playoffs during this time:


NFL's shift to making the league a QB driven league to a potentially unhealthy point:

One of my majors gripes as a football fan in general is how the game has drastically changed where QB's are the focus to a point the team doesn't matter. The rule changes in 03, 04, 07, & 10 gave QB's a significant advantage that still hasn't been accounted for. Back before the rule changes it was possible to have a team was a decent defense and running game make the playoffs and win a round even if the QB was dog crap. QB play still determined the outcome for Super Bowls and you generally need a top QB to win a SB unless your defense is DEN or SEA like, but the league use to emphasize the rest of the team far more. These days if you hit a QB a split second late high its a penalty, low its a penalty, intentional grounding is almost never called anymore, and WRs are protected by the rules more making it easier for QBs to either get them the ball or draw a penalty. You could draw back some of these rules a bit where player safety is still prioritized first but the defense has a better shot. Additionally if QB's are getting the ball out faster even just to throw it away start enforcing intentional grounding more. It's kind of insane the current rules that if you throw the ball remotely near a player when chased it isn't even questioned as illegal.

 

New England Patriots:

Fair or not the Bills have been stuck with the best dynasty run potentially ever. Swing a game or two here in just a few seasons and the Bills probably sneak in at 9-7 or 10-6. The record vs NE is incredible and its gotten to the point of almost always being a guaranteed loss. If your routinely starting the season 0-2 that is a hard place to come from.

 

Number of NFL Teams:

When the NFL expanded the playoffs to add the 6th WC spot they did so because the percentage of teams that make the playoffs was in the low 30% range. When they added the 6th spot they did so because it made it where around 44% of the league made the playoffs increasing competition and giving everyone a better chance. Since the 90s expansion though that number has reverted back down to 37.5%. Had another spot been open the odds favor that one of the seasons the Bills were 9-7 or potentially couldve gone 9-7 they sneak in. Not the best situation for BUF to make the playoffs but it would've killed the drought. Additionally with more NFL teams there is less high end talent and good QB's available for teams to have making it even more difficult to find and field a strong roster.

 

NFL Rules:

During the drought the Bills have caught the poor side of some officiating that has blown back in our face. None looms larger then the home opener loss to the Jaguars in 04 where we knocked the Jags TE out of bounds and were penalized at the time because we impeded his ability to catch the ball. TD Jags and loss BUF. What sucks is that rule no longer exists and had the Bills won they would've made the playoffs. Continuing the them of QB's and the Patriots, the Bills got the brunt of the rule changes that enhanced QB play with Brady. The best way to beat him is to hit him a lot and jam his WR's. Well guess what the NFL alters that and makes both far harder.

 

Bad luck despite 5-1 or 5-2 starts:

Statistically if you start 5-1 or 5-2 you have about a 73% chance of making the playoffs. If your 5-1 you don't even need to be above .500 just go 5-5 and your most likely making it. The Bills 3 separate times have defied odds drastically in their favor to a maddening level. In the end this does fall back on them, but fans have gotten to the point we are more terrified at 5-1 or 5-2 then excited. That's insane haha

 

 

In my opinion, the answer is much more simple.  The Bills as an organization continually empowered the wrong the people to make key decisions for the organization.  Like him or not, it starts with Ralph WIlson.  In my opinion, he's the reason for the drought.  After the Tom Donahoe experiment failed, Ralph relied on people he knew, rather the best fir for the position.  It extends to bad decisions for GM (Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley) who hired bad coaches and made poor personnel decisions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

In my opinion, the answer is much more simple.  The Bills as an organization continually empowered the wrong the people to make key decisions for the organization.  Like him or not, it starts with Ralph WIlson.  In my opinion, he's the reason for the drought.  After the Tom Donahoe experiment failed, Ralph relied on people he knew, rather the best fir for the position.  It extends to bad decisions for GM (Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley) who hired bad coaches and made poor personnel decisions.

While these things are largely true, the OPs question was regarding external factors in the drought . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

" To win in this business it's about two things,  It's about players and winning."   Todd Whaley  

 

  I don't know who you blame for poor drafts; Coaches, Scouts, Management, maybe all three.   Also timing or luck plays a role, I remember the Bills really wanted Von Miller but Denver grabbed him one pick ahead of us.    Not making the playoffs but winning enough games that you pick in the mid teens plays a role in not making the playoffs. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Jacobo Peterman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

The main factor in the drought other than the Bills own failure to address the QB position successfully is simple : Tom Brady was drafted ( as a sixth round afterthought)by the Patriots. If you analyze it closely, it can't be anything else. If you say the longevity of the Pats dominance and dynastic run, it comes back to Brady. There should be no special reverence given to this as it relates to dominant eras by other NFL franchises . That is , it's not likely any better than those by San Francisco , Dallas et al. The only difference is that the main characters involved ; head coach , quarterback, ownership have decided ( smartly) to stay together. It's easy to envision the 80's and 90's niners or Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys having a longer period of Championship success than they did, but human nature got in the way. The genius Bill Walsh retired from the NFL, Montana was traded due to the presence of Young and Jimmy Johnson butted heads with the heavy handed Jerry Jones. If one wishes to bestow admiration on Bill Belichick above all others , it can only be for his unprecedented arrogance. For persistently sticking around as Coach when all his predecessors have gotten bored or tried to achieve the highest success as a GM or some other pursuit. Credit should also go to Kraft, the drunkard owner. For realizing the franchise's astounding good fortune with their gee- wiz stumble on the unheralded Brady. He's kept quietly in the background , unlike other owners in the midst of football dynasties. It still all reverts to the presence of Brady, without which none of the success would likely exist. 

This ^^^.  Excellent post, you nailed it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a new one for Bills FO and ownership - Focus non-stop on getting a Damn legit QB. Once you have a QB build around him = DONE

 

All the wasted picks in the past 20 years are maddening to me. Only drafting 2 QB's in the first round since Kelly in 1983 is just a slap to all Bills fans in the Face.

 

Stop whining about the Pats being in our division, along with rule changes that every team has to adapt too.

 

Holy hell, even the Browns finally get it. http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/sports/browns-owner-finding-quarterback-top-job-new-gm-article-1.3686422

 

OP, I know you said excluding the Bills themselves but honestly there is no-one to blame but ownership and the FO for this mess. RIP Ralph, but a lot of this is on him and I pray Pegula doesn't let his FO follow suit, whomever they are or will be.

Edited by Real McCoy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, TallskiWallski83 said:

Id like to add:

- Moving the kickoff 5 yards forward has resulted in hardly any kickoff returns . People complain that now we don't see  any kick return touchdowns but the bigger problem is starting field position. It used to be that a team with great special teams or a great kick returner  would consistently gain better field position to start your drives. Why does this matter? A team with a below average QB is way less likely to score a touchdown on drives that require more first downs. Long scoring drives require consistent yardage gains and execution and a team with a poor QB  play relies more heavily on good starting field position to score touchdowns.  Teams like the Chiefs with Dante Hall and the Bears with Devin Hester used to thrive on field position and it led to successful drives for their below average QBS. 

 

The game has three phases: Offense, Defense, Special Teams.  Removing kickoffs reduced the role of special teams in the outcomes of games and tilted it more in favor of offense.

It sucks they got rid of kickoff returns. They are one of the most exciting plays in football and now they are shell of what they used to be.

 

I thought Pat Kirwan and Jim Miller's take on NFLR was interesting last off season and proposed screw it, kickoffs suck so just go punting from an appropriate yard line, there is still a chance for a return, and there much less injuries from punts than the old style kickoffs. 

 

I'd go for it as better than just starting on the 20 yard line.  That would suck.  Second, I really do understand the owners and Goodell have to make changes as the impending future lawsuits could kill this league.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...