B Fan in LA Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Oh great, more stats to show that TT is a top 5 QB in the NFL. Too bad he doesn't pass the "eye" test. That's the test where you actually watch the game and see what a disaster he can be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, B Fan in LA said: Oh great, more stats to show that TT is a top 5 QB in the NFL. Too bad he doesn't pass the "eye" test. That's the test where you actually watch the game and see what a disaster he can be. He doesn't even pass the Forrest Whitaker's bad eye test. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 2 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. These numbers are deceiving...typically we will have one drive a game where we convert 5 or 6 3rd downs and then score a TD and then fail to convert another 3rd down for multiple drives. Numbers still look good because when you go 3 and out a bunch of times in a row you only have 1 3rd down a drive getting added in. Also quite a few of TT's TD passes have been on 3rd down as well which helps but it in no way tells the whole story. Stats can show anything you want them to. Its people's jobs to understand their validity by watching the game. If a company brags about having a 99% on time delivery rate but its because they make sure they limit the number of packages they deliver, are they more successful than a company with a 90% on time delivery rate that really push the limits by taking on more work than they can complete in the allotted timeframe? This is what you are showing us with Tyrod's stats on 3rd down...he is the company with the 99% on time delivery rate(ie, completing checkdowns to RBs for 5 yards when we need 8 versus another QB who tries to make a play and get a first down but might throw incomplete or throw an INT). Edited December 8, 2017 by matter2003 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. Ranked by percentage of completions? So if it's third-and-eight and a QB completes a pass that goes for a 2 yard gain, it's OK by this standard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. Middle of the league passer + woeful receiving corps = a bad passing offense Yeah Taylor has converted or made plays that should have converted a number of long distance second and third downs........but when this offense was good the past two seasons they were making big plays.......leading the NFL in that category in both 2015 and 2016....... and those big plays have been taken out of the games of Taylor and McCoy by the lack of defensive attention given to their sluggish WR corps and instead focused on the LOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, ScottLaw said: How often are they in 3rd and long? Here's another question ... WHY are they often in 3rd and long? Doesn't an awful lot of that have to do with how bad the offense (including Tyrod) are on 1st and 2nd downs? 38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Middle of the league passer + woeful receiving corps = a bad passing offense Yeah Taylor has converted or made plays that should have converted a number of long distance second and third downs........but when this offense was good the past two seasons they were making big plays.......leading the NFL in that category in both 2015 and 2016....... and those big plays have been taken out of the games of Taylor and McCoy by the lack of defensive attention given to their sluggish WR corps and instead focused on the LOS. He didn't throw long much or well last year either. People are remembering how well he threw long in 2015. He really hasn't done it that well since. Most of the big plays last year were running plays. And I guess you could call a guy generally considered somewhere around 20 - 22nd best in passing as "middle of the league." But it's actually a bit below average. Edited December 8, 2017 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 hours ago, Foreigner said: Most people on this board and the media have been saying this year that TT is slowing down the Offense and is failing to move the chains, but here are the top QB passers on 3rd down in the NFL this year. Completion % Yards Passer Rating Josh McGowan 70.8 1,043 103.6 Drew Brees 67.5 859 94.2 Carson Wentz 66.4 1,043 125.7 Tyrod Taylor 65.4 707 88.0 Case Keenum 64.9 771 86.6 All of the top 5 QBs have played in 12 games I believe except Taylor who has been in just over 11(injury last week and Peterman game.) Looking at these figures, it would seem our problem is more on 1st and 2nd down, so place the blame where you wish. What is his 1st down percentage not some meaningless completion percentage number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) 9 hours ago, keepthefaith said: Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. Currently 16/36. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017 Also, 55% of Taylor's 3rd down plays that have resulted in a ball leaving his hand or a sack have been for 8+ yards. I can't find an exact stat for this, but if we don't average the longest distance to convert on 3rd down, I'd be surprised. But even then, it'll be 2nd or 3rd most. And I have a legitimate question to you: do you actually care about plays that are 3rd down passing plays or do you only care about plays where the ball leaves Taylor's hand or he's sacked, which is the number the NFL tracks? I ask because scrambles are passing plays, too. And Taylor often converts 3rd downs by scrambling. Hell, he was a perfect 3/3 on scramble conversions on 3rd down against the Patriots. Taylor has actually improved as a 3rd down QB, believe it or not. I'm looking forward to all the reasoning about to be thrown at those facts just to try to make Taylor look like the worst QB in the NFL Edited December 8, 2017 by transplantbillsfan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forward Progress Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The best QB’s in the league lead the league in converting first downs, not completing passes for eight yards when we need 10. In our offence, Taylor throws the ball short of the sticks, but the ball is not positioned for the YAC needed for the first down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMF2006 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 hours ago, keepthefaith said: Show me the stats on converting a first down on 3rd down pass plays. Yeah getting 7 on 3rd and 12 just doesn't cut it. 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Currently 16/36. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing&year=2017 Also, 55% of Taylor's 3rd down plays that have resulted in a ball leaving his hand or a sack have been for 8+ yards. I can't find an exact stat for this, but if we don't average the longest distance to convert on 3rd down, I'd be surprised. But even then, it'll be 2nd or 3rd most. And I have a legitimate question to you: do you actually care about plays that are 3rd down passing plays or do you only care about plays where the ball leaves Taylor's hand or he's sacked, which is the number the NFL tracks? I ask because scrambles are passing plays, too. And Taylor often converts 3rd downs by scrambling. Hell, he was a perfect 3/3 on scramble conversions on 3rd down against the Patriots. Taylor has actually improved as a 3rd down QB, believe it or not. I'm looking forward to all the reasoning about to be thrown at those facts just to try to make Taylor look like the worst QB in the NFL Look he is not the worst but he is also not the long term answer. His last two home performances were 56yds and 63 yds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclepete Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Good post. Which is why heat maps were annoying as !@#$ the last two seasons. 9 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Good post. Which is why heat maps were annoying as !@#$ the last two seasons. They’re deceiving but our play calling is terrible. Never seems like the defense is off balance. Always in obvious passing position on 3rd down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SydneyBillsFan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 "Top QBs in the NFL on 3rd down" This stat is about as useful as a fishnet condom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 (edited) Threads like this don’t show that a Taylor is a good QB. Anyone who watches the games knows he’s not. What they do show is how deceptive statistics can be and why you should never forcus or base your arguments primarily on them. Maybe someone should show this thread to McDermott so that he stops thinking about benching him due to ineffectiveness for a rookie 5th round draft pick. Edited December 8, 2017 by vincec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Middle of the league passer + woeful receiving corps = a bad passing offense Yeah Taylor has converted or made plays that should have converted a number of long distance second and third downs........but when this offense was good the past two seasons they were making big plays.......leading the NFL in that category in both 2015 and 2016....... and those big plays have been taken out of the games of Taylor and McCoy by the lack of defensive attention given to their sluggish WR corps and instead focused on the LOS. 28th in passing yards 2015 30th in passing yards 2016 But keep climbing Mount Wrong. You'll reach the summit someday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The Bills have 203 total 1st downs, 28th in the NFL 113 passing 1st downs 31st in the NFL 74 rushing 1st downs 13th in the NFL 16 by penalty 1st downs T 28th in the NFL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Descriptive stats suck. And they suck even worse when employed by those thinking that describing something is the same as explain what it causes. We're talking about wins. Plain and simple. You can throw as many descriptive stats as you want out, most cherry pick the ones supporting the argument they introduce, but in the end whether it's Jeremy White's constant love of useless descriptive stats or someone here's... it comes down to how these stats cause wins. We're talking inference. What can we infer, statistically, from these data points as it relates to winning. Everyone loves TT's low INT rates. As a standalone descriptive stat, it's good. But when we start linking it with other stats... YAC, TPG, TDs and look at them as a whole... does it translate to wins? Some form of regression analysis using many independent variables and "wins" as a dependent variable might help us better understand how TTs stats and the stats of all QBs each have a causal relationship to wins. I don't care enough to do it because I've sat through almost 3 seasons of home games listening to my section yell "Throw the damn ball" or "So and so is wide open" to know he's not the guy. He is slow with progressions, doesn't release his passes at the top of his drops instead waiting for a WR to be WIDE OPEN as opposed to throwing him open. In my mind, his low INT rate is a result not of his excellence but his limitations... rarely throws downfield, rarely throws in tight windows and relies on his WR to make a contested play, rarely trows over the middle. Those are were INTs happen. I would also argue these limitations hold the D back. They don't have play over 48 yards this year and the 48 yarder was a McCoy run. The running game suffers because of TT's inability to scare teams deep (and shoddy OL play), so they can play tighter to the line and stack the box. It's not the limitations of the OC, it's the limitations of the QB to execute the offense that holds teams back. TT is only different than the other QBs during the drought because of his low INT rate, somehow people have fashioned in their mind that since the throws few INTs, that makes him good. Every single one has had a fatal execution flaw.... Edwards was a checkdown machine, Fitz was an INT machine in crunch time, Losman was well Losman, EJ threw picks and didn't see the field. TT doesn't throw picks but doesn't see the field and doesn't execute an NFL passing game. Watch some ALL 22, watch how many open receivers he doesn't see. Damn Joe Webb came in last week and throw a ball down the seam that TT never throws. I can't wait for next season and the end of the TT era. If in 3 years you don't improve, you're done. Give me a mobil, pocket passer who reads the field and executes a legit passing game. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 hours ago, JMF2006 said: Look he is not the worst but he is also not the long term answer. His last two home performances were 56yds and 63 yds. No one's saying he's the long term answer. I'm certainly not. Doesn't mean you're required to stretch the truth in order to only speak negatively about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: No one's saying he's the long term answer. I'm certainly not. Doesn't mean you're required to stretch the truth in order to only speak negatively about him. right now, for some the next 4 games is long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 15 hours ago, matter2003 said: These numbers are deceiving...typically we will have one drive a game where we convert 5 or 6 3rd downs and then score a TD and then fail to convert another 3rd down for multiple drives. Numbers still look good because when you go 3 and out a bunch of times in a row you only have 1 3rd down a drive getting added in. Also quite a few of TT's TD passes have been on 3rd down as well which helps but it in no way tells the whole story. Stats can show anything you want them to. Its people's jobs to understand their validity by watching the game. If a company brags about having a 99% on time delivery rate but its because they make sure they limit the number of packages they deliver, are they more successful than a company with a 90% on time delivery rate that really push the limits by taking on more work than they can complete in the allotted timeframe? This is what you are showing us with Tyrod's stats on 3rd down...he is the company with the 99% on time delivery rate(ie, completing checkdowns to RBs for 5 yards when we need 8 versus another QB who tries to make a play and get a first down but might throw incomplete or throw an INT). Stop using analysis and logic, they are really just annoying to most people who believe that obscure stats tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Now Moment Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Dump passes to the running back give him a really nice completion percentage...this stat means absolutely nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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