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Playoff Race


CanadianFan

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Here are the standings:

  AFC Team W L
1 Pittsburgh Steelers 7 2
2 New England Patriots 7 2
3 Kansas City Chiefs 6 3
4 Tennessee Titans 6 3
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 6 3
6 Buffalo Bills 5 4
7 Baltimore Ravens 4 5
8 Oakland Raiders 4 5
9 Miami Dolphins 4 5
10 New York Jets 4 6
11 Houston Texans 3 6
12 Cincinnati Bengals 3 6
13 Los Angeles Chargers 3 6
14 Denver Broncos 3 6
15 Indianapolis Colts 3 7
16 Cleveland Browns 0

9

 

Looking at their play, and the rest of their schedules, top 5 gets through to playoffs. So our competition is for the last playoff spot, the 6th seed. Here's how that 6th seed competition looks like. I considered every team except Browns. Where I think it's a fairly even match, I gave each team a half win. Not many teams got half wins. Here's how it all falls out for me. Based on remaining schedule, Ravens are going to get that 6th seed. Their schedule is way easier and it's unfortunate.

 

BOTTOM LINE: WE HAVE THE 2ND BEST PROBABILITY FOR GETTING THE 6TH SEED. There's still HOPE.

 

    Team Current Win Total                                  
Week# Date Bills 5 Ravens 4 Raiders 4 Dolphins 4 Jets 4 Texans 3 Bengals 3 Chargers 3 Broncos 3 Colts 3
                                           
11 Nov-19 BUF @ LAC 0.5 BAL @ GB 1 NE @ OAK 0 TB @ MIA 1 BYE   ARI @ HOU 0 CIN @ DEN 0 BUF @ LAC 0.5 CIN @ DEN 1 BYE  
12 Nov-26 BUF @ KC 0 HOU @ BAL 1 DEN @ OAK 1 MIA @ NE 0 CAR @ NYJ 0 HOU @ BAL 0 CLE @ CIN 1 LAC @ DAL 0 DEN @ OAK 0 TEN @ IND 0
13 Dec-03 NE @ BUF 0 DET @ BAL 0.5 NYG @ OAK 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 KC @ NYJ 0 HOU @ TEN 0 PIT @ CIN 0.5 CLE @ LAC 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 IND @ JAX 0
14 Dec-10 IND @ BUF 1 BAL @ PIT 0 OAK @ KC 0 NE @ MIA 0 NYJ @ DEN 0 SF @ HOU 1 CHI @ CIN 1 WAS @ LAC 0.5 NYJ @ DEN 1 IND @ BUF 0
15 Dec-17 MIA @ BUF 1 BAL @ CLE 1 DAL @ OAK 0.5 MIA @ BUF 0 NYJ @ NO 0 HOU @ JAX 0 CIN @ MIN 0 LAC @ KC 0 DEN @ IND 1 DEN @ IND 0
16 Dec-24 BUF @ NE 0 IND @ BAL 1 OAK @ PHI 0 MIA @ KC 0 LAC @ NYJ 0 PIT @ HOU 0 DET @ CIN 1 LAC @ NYJ 1 DEN @ WAS 0.5 IND @ BAL 0
17 Dec-31 BUF @ MIA 0 CIN @ BAL 1 OAK @ LAC 0.5 BUF @ MIA 1 NYJ @ NE 0 HOU @ IND 1 CIN @ BAL 0 OAK @ LAC 0.5 KC @ DEN 0 HOU @ IND 0.5
                                           
Posssible Win Totals 7.5   9.5   7   6.5   4   5   6.5   6.5   7   3.5

 

Urgh. Excel tables don't work.

Here's the table as a picture file.

 

yoDWYJ7.jpg

Edited by CanadianFan
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Multiple times I've seen people just handing Baltimore wins because the rest of their schedule looks easy. When did Baltimore get good? Fun fact, they haven't. GB may be a toss up, but I expect the Packers to win that one, even without Rogers. Houston could truly go either way. No way Baltimore beats Detroit or Pittsburgh. And, don't ever underestimate the challenge of a division game, especially in the AFC North. I see a Cincy win in week 17. Cleveland looks like a win for them, but again a division game with an improving Kizer and some players coming back for them. Also, an improving Colts team just gave Pittsburgh all they could handle and beat the Texans the week before, yet a mediocre Ravens team is just going to steamroll them?

 

I say Ravens finish 8-8 at best, more likely 7-9

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How do you chalk up a victory for Baltimore playing on the road in GB? That's a toss up if ever I saw one. The Ravens have won 1 game in their past 4. That's not a team that can get easy victories on the road, no matter who they are playing. Hell, it's not a team that can get easy victories at home either, except vs. CLE.

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41 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

Multiple times I've seen people just handing Baltimore wins because the rest of their schedule looks easy. When did Baltimore get good? Fun fact, they haven't. GB may be a toss up, but I expect the Packers to win that one, even without Rogers. Houston could truly go either way. No way Baltimore beats Detroit or Pittsburgh. And, don't ever underestimate the challenge of a division game, especially in the AFC North. I see a Cincy win in week 17. Cleveland looks like a win for them, but again a division game with an improving Kizer and some players coming back for them. Also, an improving Colts team just gave Pittsburgh all they could handle and beat the Texans the week before, yet a mediocre Ravens team is just going to steamroll them?

 

I say Ravens finish 8-8 at best, more likely 7-9

 

8 minutes ago, MDH said:

How do you chalk up a victory for Baltimore playing on the road in GB? That's a toss up if ever I saw one. The Ravens have won 1 game in their past 4. That's not a team that can get easy victories on the road, no matter who they are playing. Hell, it's not a team that can get easy victories at home either, except vs. CLE.

I know. It just says they have the easier schedule. GB is tough but Ravens have the D to stop them easy. Question is on the offensive side, if they can get enough points. 

 

even at 7-9 they tie with us and got the tie breakers in conference wins, etc. 

Edited by CanadianFan
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3 minutes ago, CanadianFan said:

 

I know. It just says they have the easier schedule. GB is tough but Ravens have the D to stop them easy. Question is on the offensive side, if they can get enough points. 

 

even at 7-9 they tie with us and got the tie breakers in conference wins, etc. 

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

4 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Bills

Ravens

Raiders

battling for the Final Spot.

 

Bills I have at 8 wins going into Final 2 weeks

Raiders I have at 7-8 Wins going into Final 2 Weeks

Ravens I have at 7-8 wins going into Final 2 Weeks

 

No idea, but it seems like it's going to be tight.  Or maybe not.  Who knows.

 

 

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

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36 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

 

So do your own math. That's what the table is for. Who ends up with the 6th seed?

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47 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

4 minutes ago, Marty McFly said:

Bills IF they can beat the chargers. That wc spot is in the line this weekend. They better play like the season is on the line.

 

Basically this weekend is key to watch Ravens. If we beat Chargers and Ravens lose to Packers we improve our chances at this. 

 

 

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