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Playoffs? Playoffs?? The Playoff Chances Thread


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On 12/11/2017 at 9:07 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

 

Based on that article it appears that Bills most likely way to get into the playoffs is to end up tied with the Chargers and Titans at 9-7 which means that the Bills probably want the Chiefs to win this weekend despite it killing the draft pick we get from them.

 

It seems unlikely that the Bills would end up tied at 9-7 with only the Chiefs which is what they'd need in order to win the tiebreaker with the Chiefs. Any 3 way tie that includes the Chiefs and the Chiefs make the playoffs.

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2 hours ago, MDH said:

 

Based on that article it appears that Bills most likely way to get into the playoffs is to end up tied with the Chargers and Titans at 9-7 which means that the Bills probably want the Chiefs to win this weekend despite it killing the draft pick we get from them.

 

It seems unlikely that the Bills would end up tied at 9-7 with only the Chiefs which is what they'd need in order to win the tiebreaker with the Chiefs. Any 3 way tie that includes the Chiefs and the Chiefs make the playoffs.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell. If you want the Chargers to beat the Chiefs, then you are hoping TEN implodes down the stretch going 0-3 and dropping out at 8-8. While they have a tough schedule , it seems less likely than a 1-3 finish with their last 2 vs division leading Rams and Jaguars. 

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Beat Miami tomorrow: playoff chances 31%

Lose to Miami tomorrow: it's over. 2%

 

Beat Miami twice, lose to the Pats: 52% chance of making it (better than I expected! this is what we realistically should be focused on)

Win all 3: 89% chance

 

All from fivethirtyeight, still the best projection system out there.  You can also (like the NYT) play around with what other teams do, but since that's outside our control, I thought it would make sense to focus on the Bills themselves.

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13 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Beat Miami tomorrow: playoff chances 31%

Lose to Miami tomorrow: it's over. 2%

 

Beat Miami twice, lose to the Pats: 52% chance of making it (better than I expected! this is what we realistically should be focused on)

Win all 3: 89% chance

 

All from fivethirtyeight, still the best projection system out there.  You can also (like the NYT) play around with what other teams do, but since that's outside our control, I thought it would make sense to focus on the Bills themselves.

 

 

if they lose, throw the 2% out and move on to next season with the hopes of making the postseason in 2018.

 

of course it'll be like that of the past when some will still cling on to hoping other teams fail but it wont make anymore difference then in the past.

 

this is absolutely a must win and frankly they need all three to have the best shot.

 

that 14% chance isn't anything to get all giddy about, is it

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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The realist in me says we split with Miami, lose to the Pats, and end up watching again at 8-8.

But the fan in me says: this is completely within our reach. We're not asking for the impossible - beating the Pats in Foxboro. Just beating the Dolphins twice. And beating them tomorrow leaves them effectively out of contention, so we'd have something to play for in the final week while they're just playing out the string. In other words: it's do-able, and it's not an incredible long shot.   (but yes, we are the Bills ...)

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