Current status: organization and this year

[dayman]

1. What do we expect this year? Our floor is probably 6 wins, our ceiling probably 11. We're likely to end up between 7 and 9 wins and miss the playoffs. If we make it, we aren't going anywhere.

 

2. Offense? The reason we definitely aren't going anywhere is b/c our offense needs a complete and immediate rebuild. QB, WR, OL, all need serious help (and for this year now we have what looks like a serious Clay injury). Plus, medium-term, the only RB worth a damn is old. We're looking at 7ish positions that need replacement in the immediate future. If we were forecasting 2 years from now you would expect at least 2 of our top 3 WRs to be guys not on the roster, the starting QB to be a QB not on the roster, our starting RB to be a guy not on the roster, and 3 OLmen to be guys not on the roster.

 

3. Defense? Our defense is, once again, a pleasure to watch--but slightly overrated in my judgment. The DL is hot and cold, the LBs are weakish, and the secondary has no depth. We're good here for now, and it is a great look for coaches, but a few "back to earth" games are coming eventually. Plus, they're old...the oldest defense in the league (so I've heard...have not verified but we all know they're pretty old). Forecasting 2 years from now...you're looking at 2 new DTs, all new LBs, and depth sprinkled in throughout.

 

4. Realistic situational analysis: We're not going anywhere this year, and we're not going anywhere until we replace ~13 starters. Tyrod is gone, period. I actually kind of like Tyrod and think he's about average, but he won't work here if for no other reason than timing in terms of his skills, age, and our organizational development. Shady is too old to be apart of whatever our (best case scenario) near-future winning team will be...same is true of other old guys (including Incognito). Obviously, Dareus won't be apart of that either.

 

So what should we do? Well, right now we're 3-2. If the playoffs started now we would be the #2 seed. Therefore, for now, of course we can't do anything other than hope and pray the offense somehow gets better and we get lucky enough to win 10 games. We owe ourselves a shot to see what happens.

 

But, if we drop a few (just a few) and continue to look terrible on offense...we need to bench Tyrod quick and let the rookie take some snaps. If that doesn't look like some miracle answer for us this year (which of course it won't), we need to try to trade some our of our old guys for willing takers before the deadline this year (Tyrod, Shady, Kyle Williams, Dareus, Alexander, Incognito, etc.). It really doesn't even matter if we end up getting 6th/7th round picks for some of these guys. Hell, Dareus should probably be cut for nothing so we can eat whatever the fallout is as soon as possible.

 

Long story short, we need our "tank" leash to be super, super short. No matter what, even if we can make the playoffs somehow this year, we need a total overhaul. We do not have the foundation we need in place to build right now...and messing around is ok so long as we may be able to eek out a streak break is fine...but other than that...whatever we started doing this offseason needs to continue.

 

Keep tearing down. Keep starting young guys, switching up depth chart, and test random stuff. Get rid of guys that can't work medium-long term now...even if it nets only late round draft picks. Keep tearing it down...and don't be afraid to do so if we're 5-5. Unless we stay on track to be at the actual top...tear it down.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2017 by dayman