Big Turk Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I keep seeing stuff about "trap games" and it drives me crazy because there is no such thing. For the love of God can people stop talking about trap games? They DON'T EXIST!! It was conclusively proven in a comprehensive 25 year study done by Football Outsiders where they found teams win and lose "trap games" against inferior opponents at the same rate they win and lose any other game against similar opponents. In fact, they actually won slightly more "trap games" but not a statistically significant amount. "Trap Games" are officially dead. It sounds nice to say when you are justifying the 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to a bad team, but in the end its the same 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to ANY bad team they play. It has ZERO to do with it being a "trap game" or not. http://www.footballo...2007-trap-games Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 All Traps Home Traps Road Traps Win Pct. .820 .889 .747 W-L 389-85 217-27 172-58 Table 2: Winning Teams Non-Trap Games against Sub-.500 Teams, 1983-2006 All Games Home Games Road Games Win Pct. .815 .880 .751 W-L 1,601-539-3 861-115-2 740-244-1 Let's put this whole "Trap game" nonsense to bed...now you know. Stop saying it. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Well they might exist for teams like Denver or Atlanta, but they sure as hell don't exist for teams that haven't made the playoffs or won more than 9 games in a !@#$ing generation!! Of all the ridiculous topics to suddenly be all over this board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 I keep seeing stuff about "trap games" and it drives me crazy because there is no such thing. For the love of God can people stop talking about trap games? They DON'T EXIST!! It was conclusively proven in a comprehensive 25 year study done by Football Outsiders where they found teams win and lose "trap games" against inferior opponents at the same rate they win and lose any other game against similar opponents. In fact, they actually won slightly more "trap games" but not a statistically significant amount. "Trap Games" are officially dead. It sounds nice to say when you are justifying the 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to a bad team, but in the end its the same 15-20% chance a good team has of losing to ANY bad team they play. It has ZERO to do with it being a "trap game" or not. http://www.footballo...2007-trap-games Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 All Traps Home Traps Road Traps Win Pct. .820 .889 .747 W-L 389-85 217-27 172-58 Table 2: Winning Teams Non-Trap Games against Sub-.500 Teams, 1983-2006 All Games Home Games Road Games Win Pct. .815 .880 .751 W-L 1,601-539-3 861-115-2 740-244-1 Let's put this whole "Trap game" nonsense to bed...now you know. Stop saying it. Please. That study didn't prove that trap games don't exist. It proved that trap games by his definition don't exist. He defined them very widely in some areas - such that any over .500 team could have them, which is clearly nonsense, and very strangely in others - any game against a team below .500 when sandwiched between two games against teams over .500. Those definitions are pretty wacky. By those definitions trap games don't exist, but those are strange definitions. In any case, no team in Buffalo's situation could be feeling such unconditional confidence that they start to feel they could ignore anyone. It's a non-issue for this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 That study didn't prove that trap games don't exist. It proved that trap games by his definition don't exist. He defined them very widely in some areas - such that any over .500 team could have them, which is clearly nonsense, and very strangely in others - any game against a team below .500 when sandwiched between two games against teams over .500. Those definitions are pretty wacky. By those definitions trap games don't exist, but those are strange definitions. In any case, no team in Buffalo's situation could be feeling such unconditional confidence that they start to feel they could ignore anyone. It's a non-issue for this team. https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/ Another study showing the same thing via different metrics. But I guess people will keep trying to narrow the metrics to such a ridiculous point so that it "proves" they exist somehow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Well they might exist for teams like Denver or Atlanta, but they sure as hell don't exist for teams that haven't made the playoffs or won more than 9 games in a !@#$ing generation!! Of all the ridiculous topics to suddenly be all over this board.... Thank you. You speak da troof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Of course trap games don't exist. Everyone knows the team that wins is usually the one who "wants it" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 This study did a horrible job defining trap games and used too wide of a data set. Trap games are not meant to be studied imperically. Teams on a high are capable of overlooking their opponent. It happens all the time, at nearly every level of sports. It's not very quantifiable, but I refuse to believe they don't exist. I do agree that the term is over used, but for some upsets it feels like the perfect description for the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 LOL we had this debate several years ago...it's true, there's no such thing as a trap game in the NFL despite hordes of fans and media suggesting otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 This does not prove that "trap games" do not exist..... just that teams don't lose them any more regularly than they lose other games. To me a trap game simply means a game where a team is coming off a big win and is playing a team they are expected to beat. You don't have to lose a trap game for it to be a trap game.... if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 There are many factors. Imo this past weekend they gained some national attention. They lost 2 starters in the process. Cinncy is better than their record indicates. On the road Vegas has them dogs for a reason. It is 100% a possible let down/ trap game. Now did Buffalo prepare any less vs Cincy than they did for Denver or ATL? Probably not, so its more a trap game for fans, ot taking the bengals lightly im sure the team is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Yes! The annual debate returns! 17 years of no playoffs = no trap games for Bills. Whether they exist or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 In this case I am not so sure the Bengals are so "inferior" to the Bills but that seems to be the consensus among Bills fans. The Bengals have a coach who has made the playoffs 5 straight years before last year. They have lost some coaching talent but they are still dangerous on both sides of the ball. They are NOT the team on offense you saw in weeks 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 This study did a horrible job defining trap games and used too wide of a data set. Trap games are not meant to be studied imperically. Teams on a high are capable of overlooking their opponent. It happens all the time, at nearly every level of sports. It's not very quantifiable, but I refuse to believe they don't exist. I do agree that the term is over used, but for some upsets it feels like the perfect description for the situation. Or it just is the 19%-25% chance that they will lose coming true and has nothing to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Nice try with this thread. Everyone knows you're just trying to reverse jinx us to beat the bengals this week. Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Or it just is the 19%-25% chance that they will lose coming true and has nothing to do with that. Yup. It's confirmation bias at work. People only notice the trap games when the favored team loses. When they win the 80% of the time they're supposed to no one mentions it. Trap games are for the fans, the players don't see it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan60 Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 It's not a trap game, but it will define the 2017 Bills team. Down 2 starters, under performing ground game, offense still finding its identity and playing on the road in a tough venue. If they pull this one off these guys are for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 What about trap girls? They exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
x-BillzeBubba Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Here's the psychological 'trap' they could fall into, if the game isn't going their way: Hey, we're 2 games over .500 we can afford a loss We're banged up, a loss is not hard to explain Our opponent is on the 1-3 ropes, at home, of course they'll play out of their minds to save their season The worst one would be: we've been a bit lucky winning games against good teams and against expectations, our luck is just running out and we maybe aren't that good It's not like they have a winning culture / pedigree to draw on (yet). This game might reveal who this team really is more than any so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 IF > trap games don't exist Then > Table 1 can't exist Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhoTom Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 IF > trap games don't exist Then > Table 1 can't exist Table 1: Winning Teams in Trap Games 1983-2006 Well played, Sir. Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts