4merper4mer Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, row_33 said: Bama needs a lot of help.... the media and fat cats want them in the playoff and will find any excuse worthy of 10% to get them in... but they need a lot of help LSU has a high probability of finding some way to furball this away They have all the help they will need. There are going to be teams that lose. If a one loss team wins the Big 10..... No Big 10. I could even see them putting in Bama over an undefeated Minny if that came to pass. Bama will be I the playoff if they finish with one loss....and they aren't out of it with two, but that might not fly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 (edited) 16 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said: They have all the help they will need. There are going to be teams that lose. If a one loss team wins the Big 10..... No Big 10. I could even see them putting in Bama over an undefeated Minny if that came to pass. Bama will be I the playoff if they finish with one loss....and they aren't out of it with two, but that might not fly. nope, an undefeated top conference champ is going to the playoffs Baylor is the weakest of that scenario, it has no tug on the heartstrings of the media or Committees like Ohio State does and nothing ever goes the way it's planned, so a few big losses are still prob'ly gonna happen Edited November 11, 2019 by row_33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanCRNA Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 4 hours ago, row_33 said: Bama needs a lot of help.... the media and fat cats want them in the playoff and will find any excuse worthy of 10% to get them in... but they need a lot of help LSU has a high probability of finding some way to furball this away Don't think it's going to require "a lot" of help. What does have to happen, IMO, is Bama has to win out, and do so convincingly. Can't squeak by at Auburn. Need to beat them, bigly. LSU has to win the conference. That eliminates UGA. Clemson nor Ohio State are losing. There's three that are in. A one loss conference champ Oregon could possibly get in ahead of Bama. However, their loss is to Auburn on a neutral field. If Bama boat races Auburn in Jordan-Hare, that's likely all the committee needs to see. A one loss Utah ain't getting in ahead of Bama, conference champs or not. Bama has, BY FAR, the best loss of all the one-loss teams. Just have to win out big, and hope LSU runs the table. 2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said: They have all the help they will need. There are going to be teams that lose. If a one loss team wins the Big 10..... No Big 10. I could even see them putting in Bama over an undefeated Minny if that came to pass. Bama will be I the playoff if they finish with one loss....and they aren't out of it with two, but that might not fly. Bama wouldn't edge out an Undefeated Big 10 champion, even Minnesota. That would mean Minny beat OSU. No chance Bama's in with two losses. That would mean they lost to the two best teams on their schedule (LSU and Auburn) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 10 hours ago, BillsFanCRNA said: Don't think it's going to require "a lot" of help. What does have to happen, IMO, is Bama has to win out, and do so convincingly. Can't squeak by at Auburn. Need to beat them, bigly. LSU has to win the conference. That eliminates UGA. Clemson nor Ohio State are losing. There's three that are in. A one loss conference champ Oregon could possibly get in ahead of Bama. However, their loss is to Auburn on a neutral field. If Bama boat races Auburn in Jordan-Hare, that's likely all the committee needs to see. A one loss Utah ain't getting in ahead of Bama, conference champs or not. Bama has, BY FAR, the best loss of all the one-loss teams. Just have to win out big, and hope LSU runs the table. Bama wouldn't edge out an Undefeated Big 10 champion, even Minnesota. That would mean Minny beat OSU. No chance Bama's in with two losses. That would mean they lost to the two best teams on their schedule (LSU and Auburn) If you flipped LSU and Bama results from Saturday and plugged LSU into the scenarios above, they wouldn't get in. One loss Oregon or Utah get in over LSU but not Bama. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 11 hours ago, BillsFanCRNA said: Don't think it's going to require "a lot" of help. What does have to happen, IMO, is Bama has to win out, and do so convincingly. Can't squeak by at Auburn. Need to beat them, bigly. LSU has to win the conference. That eliminates UGA. Clemson nor Ohio State are losing. There's three that are in. A one loss conference champ Oregon could possibly get in ahead of Bama. However, their loss is to Auburn on a neutral field. If Bama boat races Auburn in Jordan-Hare, that's likely all the committee needs to see. A one loss Utah ain't getting in ahead of Bama, conference champs or not. Bama has, BY FAR, the best loss of all the one-loss teams. Just have to win out big, and hope LSU runs the table. Bama wouldn't edge out an Undefeated Big 10 champion, even Minnesota. That would mean Minny beat OSU. No chance Bama's in with two losses. That would mean they lost to the two best teams on their schedule (LSU and Auburn) you forgot Baylor, they are in with an undefeated Big 12 title you may have 4 undefeated big conference champs, they will get all 4 spots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanCRNA Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, row_33 said: you forgot Baylor, they are in with an undefeated Big 12 title you may have 4 undefeated big conference champs, they will get all 4 spots Didn’t forget Baylor. Just can’t see them beating Oklahoma 2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said: If you flipped LSU and Bama results from Saturday and plugged LSU into the scenarios above, they wouldn't get in. One loss Oregon or Utah get in over LSU but not Bama. This is most likely true. A one loss LSU still probably gets in ahead of Utah, but maybe not Oregon (although Oregon and LSU have a common opponent-Auburn. LSU beat them, Oregon didn’t) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, BillsFanCRNA said: Didn’t forget Baylor. Just can’t see them beating Oklahoma This is most likely true. A one loss LSU still probably gets in ahead of Utah, but maybe not Oregon (although Oregon and LSU have a common opponent-Auburn. LSU beat them, Oregon didn’t) There are a few team imo that the committee/NCAA really wants in over the years. Ohio St is one, Alabama is the other. If it is close these teams will get picked over another team. With that being said there is noway in hell unless the committee wants to lose all credibility that they are leaving and power 5 conference champ that is undefeated. So with that being said Alabama is not totally cooked but they need this to happen to get in : - Obviously win out - Lsu win out & that includes beating out Georgia in the SEC championship. If Georgia wins (assuming they beat Auburn this week/no guaranty) Georgia is in as SEC champs & LSU would get the nod over Bama since they got head to head. - Lastly they need Baylor to lose. Which like you said, is totally possible. I don't think they get by OU twice, but if they do, they deserve to be in. So with that scenario you got undefeated Clemson, OSU/Minn, SEC champ LSU & now you got most likely 1 loss Oregon/Utah, 1 Loss Oklahoma & 1 loss Alabama vying for that final spot, I guess it all depends on how much the committee values Conference . Alabama's schedule to date has been garbage. It will e interesting I put Bamas odds of getting in right now as not good. they don't control their own destiny, they do need some help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, BillsFanCRNA said: Didn’t forget Baylor. Just can’t see them beating Oklahoma yes you did, you HAVE to mention all potential undefeated champs of top conferences in a semi-serious discussion... Just now, Gordio said: There are a few team imo that the committee/NCAA really wants in over the years. Ohio St is one, Alabama is the other. If it is close these teams will get picked over another team. With that being said there is noway in hell unless the committee wants to lose all credibility that they are leaving and power 5 conference champ that is undefeated. So with that being said Alabama is not totally cooked but they need this to happen to get in : - Obviously win out - Lsu win out & that includes beating out Georgia in the SEC championship. If Georgia wins (assuming they beat Auburn this week/no guaranty) Georgia is in as SEC champs & LSU would get the nod over Bama since they got head to head. - Lastly they need Baylor to lose. Which like you said, is totally possible. I don't think they get by OU twice, but if they do, they deserve to be in. So with that scenario you got undefeated Clemson, OSU/Minn, SEC champ LSU & now you got most likely 1 loss Oregon/Utah, 1 Loss Oklahoma & 1 loss Alabama vying for that final spot, I guess it all depends on how much the committee values Conference . Alabama's schedule to date has been garbage. It will e interesting I put Bamas odds of getting in right now as not good. they don't control their own destiny, they do need some help. it's not a matter of "wanting them in" if they win their conference going undefeated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, row_33 said: yes you did, you HAVE to mention all potential undefeated champs of top conferences in a semi-serious discussion... it's not a matter of "wanting them in" if they win their conference going undefeated. There is no chance of Alabama winning their conference so if they get in this year, it will be as a wild card. & yes all things being equal, or close, the committee would prefer Ohio St & Alabama in the playoff. You must have a short memory when Ohio St Jumped 4th ranked TCU a few years back TCU was 4th heading onto the championship Saturday. They took care of business but OSU mysteriously jumped them when the final polls came out. & save the BS about OSU drubbing whisky. That should not of been enough to jump an undefeated TCU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 if you go undefeated and win a big conference, or are Notre Dame, you are in the playoff, unless 5 or 6 of these types do it.... not bloody likely ever.... Baylor still has a shot and cannot be put out of the picture just because we don't think they are that good if you don't go undefeated you enter the gauntlet of $$$ and politics and history. teams with pull in all 3: Bama, Ohio State, Florida, Michigan, Notre Dame, USC, Texas, Oklahoma.... a few more can be added.... sometimes an undefeated mid-major like Boise can get the votes, but it's not happening this year at SMU was the last to crumble. TCU has no pull at all, in the backroom categories... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Back in the day of the 2 team final, USC and Oklahoma and Auburn went undefeated in their power conferences Auburn has no pull at all and was the odd man out The only time I felt through 50 years that a team was unfairly taken out of the title game (before the BCS a few years had undefeated teams that couldn't meet due to bowl obligations, 1997 was the last time with Michigan and Nebraska) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanCRNA Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 5 hours ago, Gordio said: There are a few team imo that the committee/NCAA really wants in over the years. Ohio St is one, Alabama is the other. If it is close these teams will get picked over another team. With that being said there is noway in hell unless the committee wants to lose all credibility that they are leaving and power 5 conference champ that is undefeated. So with that being said Alabama is not totally cooked but they need this to happen to get in : - Obviously win out - Lsu win out & that includes beating out Georgia in the SEC championship. If Georgia wins (assuming they beat Auburn this week/no guaranty) Georgia is in as SEC champs & LSU would get the nod over Bama since they got head to head. - Lastly they need Baylor to lose. Which like you said, is totally possible. I don't think they get by OU twice, but if they do, they deserve to be in. So with that scenario you got undefeated Clemson, OSU/Minn, SEC champ LSU & now you got most likely 1 loss Oregon/Utah, 1 Loss Oklahoma & 1 loss Alabama vying for that final spot, I guess it all depends on how much the committee values Conference . Alabama's schedule to date has been garbage. It will e interesting I put Bamas odds of getting in right now as not good. they don't control their own destiny, they do need some help. I agree with that assessment. Assuming Baylor loses (a given, IMO) and Bama wins out, it becomes a comparison of losses. Bama will have the best loss, by far. And as you correctly pointed out, brand matters. Bama/Oklahoma are getting in before Oregon/Utah/Minnesota if they all have one loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, BillsFanCRNA said: I agree with that assessment. Assuming Baylor loses (a given, IMO) and Bama wins out, it becomes a comparison of losses. Bama will have the best loss, by far. And as you correctly pointed out, brand matters. Bama/Oklahoma are getting in before Oregon/Utah/Minnesota if they all have one loss You don't count givens until they happen there is nothing wrong with waiting for Baylor to probably lose to both OU and Texas but until then they are in the driver's seat Minnesota with one loss with be thrown under the bus in 2 seconds. a 3 or 4 loss Michigan will get a better bowl than a one-loss Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanCRNA Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, row_33 said: Minnesota with one loss with be thrown under the bus in 2 seconds. a 3 or 4 loss Michigan will get a better bowl than a one-loss Minnesota ? true. Brand matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, BillsFanCRNA said: ? true. Brand matters. till then, go Golden Gophers!!! one of those magic years where your 3 real games don't start until November... and they surprised me in the first one last Saturday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanCRNA Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, row_33 said: till then, go Golden Gophers!!! one of those magic years where your 3 real games don't start until November... and they surprised me in the first one last Saturday! They get in and Bama doesn’t, and I’m rooting hard for The Gophers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, BillsFanCRNA said: They get in and Bama doesn’t, and I’m rooting hard for The Gophers! right now I would give the edge to Bama if i were to wager.... grateful i'm looking forward suddenly to watching Minny at Iowa oh good, it's on Fox probably Gus calling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 On 11/12/2019 at 4:10 PM, BillsFanCRNA said: I agree with that assessment. Assuming Baylor loses (a given, IMO) and Bama wins out, it becomes a comparison of losses. Bama will have the best loss, by far. And as you correctly pointed out, brand matters. Bama/Oklahoma are getting in before Oregon/Utah/Minnesota if they all have one loss I tend to agree with this. If Bama gets in, there is no doubt in my mind they will win it. I got to believe Dabo, Day & Orgeon do not want to see Saban in the bracket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 (edited) On 11/12/2019 at 11:10 AM, row_33 said: Back in the day of the 2 team final, USC and Oklahoma and Auburn went undefeated in their power conferences Auburn has no pull at all and was the odd man out The only time I felt through 50 years that a team was unfairly taken out of the title game (before the BCS a few years had undefeated teams that couldn't meet due to bowl obligations, 1997 was the last time with Michigan and Nebraska) TCU got snubbed. They were undefeated & got jumped by a 1 loss Ohio St team. I know OSU won the championship that year but it should of never happened as TCU was 4th going into championship week. They won their conference championship game going away & somehow got jumped. Edited November 14, 2019 by Gordio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 I actually stand corrected, they loss to Baylor that 2014 season to go 11-1. They were cochamps with Baylor & the Big 12 at the time had no Championship Game. They were #3 in the BCS going into championship week but ended up #6 after the conference championships played out. They beat Ole Miss 42-3 in their bowl game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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