Jump to content

Stop with "Schedule is Hard"--Analytics says it BS


Recommended Posts

I think we will beat Denver. It is one of our most winnable games IMO.

 

 

We'll see. I think you're being very optimistic indeed. They were 9-7 and they didn't get worse.

 

I do like that we get them at home, that's a big advantage against Denver.

Edited by Thurman#1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 215
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

 

We'll see. I think you're being very optimistic indeed. They were 9-7 and they got better.

I think they got worse and have two hopeless Quarterbacks. 6-10 season coming up. It isn't about being optimistic for the Bills... I just see an ageing Denver team with much worse coaching and no answer at the Quarterback position.

 

EDIT: I will go further... they will finish bottom of the AFC West and could well end up picking top 5 in the 2018 Draft. In fact I think that is going to be my bold prediction.

Edited by GunnerBill
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Denver isn't what they have been, I don't think. QB situation is not good. Very beatable playing in Buffalo.

 

I agree. Their OL is among the worst and they don't know who'll be at QB. Game in Buffalo? Take the Bills.

 

We go through this every year. We didn't think we'd beat the rams, Cardinals or Pats* prior to the KO of last season. We did, but got swept by NYJ & MIA. No one thought that would happen either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I agree. Their OL is among the worst and they don't know who'll be at QB. Game in Buffalo? Take the Bills.

 

We go through this every year. We didn't think we'd beat the rams, Cardinals or Pats* prior to the KO of last season. We did, but got swept by NYJ & MIA. No one thought that would happen either.

Not to be smug but I did think we would beat the Cardinals and the Rams. I had the Cardinals taking a big step back similar the way I have Denver doing this year. I didn't have the Jets or the Dolphins sweeping us though that is true. I like to think I am pretty good at spotting a team whose window has closed and is about to have a down year or two though and Denver is every inch that team this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Automatic loss, no. Quite likely loss to Denver, yeah, I think so and so do most.

 

Siemian was average, I'd agree, but in his second year in the league. He's likely to be improved and so is Lynch.

 

I agree that Wade was a loss, but IMHO not a huge one. They have the personnel on defense to yet again be very very good. And they promoted from within which means a scheme change will not be necessary.

Denver is picked to be 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Automatic loss, no. Quite likely loss to Denver, yeah, I think so and so do most.

 

Siemian was average, I'd agree, but in his second year in the league. He's likely to be improved and so is Lynch.

 

I agree that Wade was a loss, but IMHO not a huge one. They have the personnel on defense to yet again be very very good. And they promoted from within which means a scheme change will not be necessary.

Vegas has the line at Bills -1.5, so they seem to think that most people believe the Bills will win, barely. You should probably let them know that they're wrong and most people believe the Broncos will win so they don't lose too much money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even with the posted article, some people just don't get it.

 

The difference between a "good" team in the NFL and a "bad" team is not very high.

So many things can change during the season, especially injuries.

 

Just an example. Last year, Arizona was supposed to be one of the toughest teams on our schedule. They ended up with a losing record.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO, what this shows is simply that we suck at predicting strength of schedule, not that strength of schedule variations do not exist.

 

There is nothing that is "predicting" here. It simply shows that teams records from one year to the next fluctuate a lot more than most people think, and past performance is never a guarantee of future success.(Kind of like the stock market disclaimers)

Losing Wade Phillips will hurt tremendously IMO.

And Kubiak, IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then how come I usually know where all the wins are and all the loses are and end up usually within a game of picking the correct record just based on looking at the schedule in August?

It's called "faulty memory"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then how come I usually know where all the wins are and all the loses are and end up usually within a game of picking the correct record just based on looking at the schedule in August?

 

 

because they got lucky. not hard to predict against a team that hasn't been a contender in years.

 

 

nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

because they got lucky. not hard to predict against a team that hasn't been a contender in years.

 

 

nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here.

 

So you're saying that the Bills' chances of winning the Super Bowl next year are equal to the Pats*' chances, because it's "all luck,"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

So you're saying that the Bills' chances of winning the Super Bowl next year are equal to the Pats*' chances, because it's "all luck,"

 

 

did I say that? I made it pretty clear that based off the past it would be easy to predict the bills as losers. I did not say anything in regards to the cheaters but, anyone could predict them to go based on their past.

 

now, since this isn't the past but the present and this is not a rex ryan run team, I think they'll surprise even those who have got lucky with predicting them as a 5-11, 6-10 or 8-8.

 

but hey, I cleaned my lenses and added an extra 1/2 cup of sugar so maybe I'll be just as lucky predicting 10-6 and a wild card.

 

 

as for the pats, I don't give a !@#$ where they finish, I was referring to my team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

did I say that? I made it pretty clear that based off the past it would be easy to predict the bills as losers. I did not say anything in regards to the cheaters but, anyone could predict them to go based on their past.

 

now, since this isn't the past but the present and this is not a rex ryan run team, I think they'll surprise even those who have got lucky with predicting them as a 5-11, 6-10 or 8-8.

 

but hey, I cleaned my lenses and added an extra 1/2 cup of sugar so maybe I'll be just as lucky predicting 10-6 and a wild card.

 

 

as for the pats, I don't give a !@#$ where they finish, I was referring to my team.

 

My, you seem salty.

 

Your team? Is this Terry or Kim?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

" TT Sucks". " The D let us down." Maybe they are both equally to blame.

Maybe, while not Jets bad, we have just been a bad to mediocre team and That is why it is so easy to predict their suckiness.

Some of us remember when The D, or O , or ST used to win games for us while another part of the squad was having an off day. That was back when we had a good team.......a Long time ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

you just seem to like to dig on some folks, try to get a rise out of them, I know your schtick.

 

 

carry on, and save the prayers for yourself.

 

"nothing but luck, no skill and anyone on this board can drop a number in the hat and be right, or wrong, no real science here."

 

That's what you said.

 

I challenged you (politely, I'll add).

 

This is what we call a conversation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...