Jump to content

New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought


Recommended Posts

Yes this is a Tyrod thread. I would love if all the name calling and petty arguments could stay out of this one.

 

I thought I was done analyzing the Bills offense in 2016, but these three articles that were published over the past couple days changed my mind:

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/6/19/15829060/buffalo-bills-tyrod-taylor-lesean-mccoy-highest-first-down-conversion-rate-after-sack-in-2016

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-hc-mcdermott-impressed-with-tyrod-taylors-leadership/

 

Taken together, these articles give us a lot of new information about how well Tyrod and the Bills offense fared when under pressure, or after taking a sack.

 

The conventional wisdom is that sacks are drive-killers. The first link is a study looking into how often a team was able to get a 1st down after taking a sack.

 

The average team was able to obtain a 1st down after a sack just 16.01% of the time. But the Bills converted for a 1st down 28.26% of the time after a sack. This was the highest percentage in the league (for comparison's sake, Miami was the worst in the league with a 3.33% 1st down rate).

 

We took 46 sacks total of which we converted 13. So in actuality we took 33 drive-killing sacks in 2016. This number needs to go down in 2017 but at least as an offense we were better able to recover after a sack than any other offense in the league.

 

The next two links are far more interesting to me. Football Outsiders published a study showing how often QBs were under defensive pressure on a passing play. They also calculated what the total offense's DVOA looked like when the QB was under pressure, whether the QB scrambled or threw the ball. This is really important because previously we only had good DVOA data on Tyrod's passing. Now we get a sense of how his passing and mobility can affect the entire offense's production.

 

The data:

-Tyrod was under pressure on 35.3% of his pass plays. Only Jared Goff was pressured more, out of 34 qualifying QBs. This obviously needs to get better, whoever you want to blame.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod wasn't under pressure was 16th in the league - exactly average.

-Our offense's DVOA when Tyrod was under pressure was 2nd in the league. Only the Packers/Aaron Rodgers were better.

 

Finally, the last link tells us that Tyrod also had the 7th best passer rating (80.1) when under pressure. And he threw 10 TDs when under pressure which was 3rd best in the league (Luck and Rodgers were ahead of him).

 

So there's a lot of really great data here. IMO the data shows Tyrod was better than people give him credit for. He was under pressure way too often. I know he has a tendency to hold the ball too long but I don't believe that tendency is enough to explain our extremely low 33/34 ranking. Hopefully Dawkins helps solve this problem in 2017.

 

Most of all, the data shows that when you factor in Tyrod's passing and scrambling, our offense performed anywhere from average (16th) to outstanding (2nd) on called passing plays. If one of your central criticisms of Tyrod is that his scrambling isn't as important as being a good passer, this data puts a pretty big dent in that criticism IMO. Especially when you consider how often Tyrod was under pressure and therefore how often we needed this special talent of his.

 

Interpret and argue away!

Edited by HappyDays
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 474
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Factor in the recievers he had to work with and I think that's even more impressive.

 

It sounds like McCoy and the tight ends are going to be involved much heavier in the passing game this year which will only serve to help him this season having some designated safety valves when thinks break down.

 

I'm not saying playoffs or anything but I think there's enough to believe our offense could take a step forward under the new regime.

Edited by likei've
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Factor in the recievers he had to work with and I think that's even more impressive.

 

It sounds like McCoy and the tight ends are going to be involved much heavier in the passing game this year which will only serve to help him this season.

 

I'm not saying playoffs or anything but I think there's enough to believe our offense could take a step forward under the new regime.

 

You hit it on the head with the recievers. Half the season we was trotting scrubs on the field, we was fielding probably the worst reciever group in the NFL. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening this year with Sammy and his foot along with Clay and his knee. I won't be shocked when we trot Jones or Holmes on the field as our 1 reciever again. Hope I'm wrong and everyone stays healthy. Hope Sammy, Clay and Jones have big years. Seeing the QB we have put on the field throughout the drought, I for one am happy that we have TT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You hit it on the head with the recievers. Half the season we was trotting scrubs on the field, we was fielding probably the worst reciever group in the NFL. Unfortunately I can see the same thing happening this year with Sammy and his foot along with Clay and his knee. I won't be shocked when we trot Jones or Holmes on the field as our 1 reciever again. Hope I'm wrong and everyone stays healthy. Hope Sammy, Clay and Jones have big years. Seeing the QB we have put on the field throughout the drought, I for one am happy that we have TT

Jones could be the gem from the draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How many times do we need to go over this?

WE need to go over it as many times as WE'D like.

 

You don't like it? Stay out, it's as easy as that.

 

Why do people find that concept so hard to grasp? No self control? Why don't you start a thread, we'll decide if we'd like to go over your topic.

 

I bet you won't.

Edited by likei've
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some just never stop trying to polish a t*rd.

 

 

Here is another one for you.

 

With less than 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 14 1/2 or more Tyrod is ranked 2nd in the NFL in completions only behind Case Keenum.

 

OMG see how good he is. That stat proves it to me I'm on the Tyrod train now. Whoop whoop.

 

 

Caution sarcasm included.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some just never stop trying to polish a t*rd.

 

 

Here is another one for you.

 

With less than 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 14 1/2 or more Tyrod is ranked 2nd in the NFL in completions only behind Case Keenum.

 

OMG see how good he is. That stat proves it to me I'm on the Tyrod train now. Whoop whoop.

 

 

Caution sarcasm included.

Caution: an ignorant and misinformed, biased post. You don't have to be on any train. 31 other teams to choose from.

Edited by JM2009
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty good. Just not good enough to beat any .500 teams.

 

It's still a no from me.

Okay but you do understand Tyrod isn't playing alone, yes? Just like Brees, Luck, and Rivers. Of course Tyrod isn't as good as those guys, and their defenses were worse than his were. But you do understand there's a connection there, yes? I wish we had a QB capable of propping up a below average defense but we don't and we aren't likely to find one anytime soon.

 

And you need to stop saying things like "he's not good enough to beat a .500 team" which is clearly factually wrong. Outside of the ones he literally has beat, he was obviously good enough to win against Miami and Seattle. He performed better against both of their defenses than the large majority of QBs did last year (if I'm remembering correctly he had the best passer rating against Seattle last year, I might be wrong and I can't find that data). So of course Tyrod is good enough to beat playoff teams. He isn't good enough to beat playoff teams when his defense doesn't show up but that's a different qualification entirely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Caution: an ignorant and misinformed, biased post. You don't have to be on any train. 31 other teams to choose from.

At least you are admitting that you are ignorant, misinformed and your post is biased ahead of time.

 

Finally some honesty. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...