The Trump Economy

[Tiberius]

28 minutes ago, ALF said:

Anyone watching the long interview  on CNBC  with Bill Ackman  CEO Pershing Square Capital are in shock. I would not even repeat his dire prediction.

Pretty sobering 

[ALF]

5 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  For the sake of discussion give us an idea.  It's not like a couple of people on an obscure message board are going to end civilization as we know it.

 

The entire country would have to shut down for 30 days except grocery , drug store and hospitals. 

 

Nevada will shut down gambling for 30 days

Edited March 18, 2020 by ALF

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

The entire country would have to shut down for 30 days except grocery , drug store and hospitals. 

  A lot of that kind of talk already going on.  I've heard that the auto manufacturers among others will be asked to idle plants for 30-40 days.  We shall see.  I don't know how much authority state governors have on these matters.

[Tiberius]

Here is the link 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

[ALF]

I'm not a Trump supporter but no way do I blame him for this disaster for the economy,  it's a black swan event.

[GG]

18 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

The entire country would have to shut down for 30 days except grocery , drug store and hospitals. 

 

Nevada will shut down gambling for 30 days

 

That's why you have to be super careful about his advice.    BTW, how are those critical services going to be restocked, if everything else is shut down?   Once you start unraveling the onion of the supply chain, you will recognize that the only people who should really be chained to their home desks would be Wall Street desk jockeys.

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, GG said:

 

That's why you have to be super careful about his advice.    BTW, how are those critical services going to be restocked, if everything else is shut down?   Once you start unraveling the onion of the supply chain, you will recognize that the only people who should really be chained to their home desks would be Wall Street desk jockeys.

I essentially said this 3 days ago, but some saw it as a political post.  People still aren't getting the gravity of the situation.  To say shut it down, does not mean essentials.  What is needed is to shut down as much as is feasible for the next 30 days. As I said, declare a payment freeze. Make sure people can get food and water and their meds. 

 

This isn't the end either.  Hopefully it will dissipate as the weather warms too, but that does not mean it won't be back in the fall.  I've been distracting myself following the Bills' moves, but unfortunately I don't think there's going to be a season.  

Btw, it's nice to see the change in Trump that started with his Monday presser.  Can't focus on past decisions, and I'm glad to see the change.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

I essentially said this 3 days ago, but some saw it as a political post.  People still aren't getting the gravity of the situation.  To say shut it down, does not mean essentials.  What is needed is to shut down as much as is feasible for the next 30 days. As I said, declare a payment freeze. Make sure people can get food and water and their meds. 

 

This isn't the end either.  Hopefully it will dissipate as the weather warms too, but that does not mean it won't be back in the fall.  I've been distracting myself following the Bills' moves, but unfortunately I don't think there's going to be a season.  

Btw, it's nice to see the change in Trump that started with his Monday presser.  Can't focus on past decisions, and I'm glad to see the change.

 

...unless significant, drastic measures are taken, they STILL won't get it.......as much as I dislike Cuomo, he is taking the lead here in NYS.......look at the Spring breakers in Florida.....and all their governor says, "this isn't what we want".......call me crazy, but if you want them to "GET IT", declare martial law (individual states DO have that right) and clear them out......not to politicize the message (serves NO purpose), but the Feds were slow to react and should have reigned in the CDC's arrogance.....thankfully, the ball is NOW rolling....you would hope that as people see what's going on around them albeit closures, lockdowns, limitations, et al at Federal, state and local government levels, they would get "IT".....not a chance for some......"just another flu".......um ok.......

Edited March 18, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[Tiberius]

40 minutes ago, ALF said:

I'm not a Trump supporter but no way do I blame him for this disaster for the economy,  it's a black swan event.

He’s doing a way better job than Hoover did in 1930 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

He’s doing a way better job than Hoover did in 1930 

 

...it took time Tibs, but the Federal level is finally getting the ball rolling.....look at other infectious disease outbreaks, natural disaster responses, etc REGARDLESS OF WHO IS IN POWER.....despite BEST intentions, the forever bloated Federal democracy moves at a snail's pace.......

[ALF]

Basic services like police , fire , ems , dept of public works , utilities can never be stopped but they need protective  covering  to do their job. 

 

What is happening in Italy is a concern 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by ALF

[Tiberius]

14 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...it took time Tibs, but the Federal level is finally getting the ball rolling.....look at other infectious disease outbreaks, natural disaster responses, etc REGARDLESS OF WHO IS IN POWER.....despite BEST intentions, the forever bloated Federal democracy moves at a snail's pace.......

Could of moved faster if Trump didn’t just dismiss it all as a hoax 

[RochesterRob]

15 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

He’s doing a way better job than Hoover did in 1930 

  It was uncharted waters in 1930 and there was immense paranoia about communism in terms of the federal government being too involved.  I suspect any radical moves would have been overturned by the Supreme Court during Hoover's tenure.  During another era without having to go through an economic collapse Hoover probably would have a much better legacy as a President.  

[3rdnlng]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Could of moved faster if Trump didn’t just dismiss it all as a hoax 

That is a lie. 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  It was uncharted waters in 1930 and there was immense paranoia about communism in terms of the federal government being too involved.  I suspect any radical moves would have been overturned by the Supreme Court during Hoover's tenure.  During another era without having to go through an economic collapse Hoover probably would have a much better legacy as a President.  

Hmmm...he did sign the Smoot Hawley Tariff. That was really stupid 

[Tiberius]

11 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  It was uncharted waters in 1930 and there was immense paranoia about communism in terms of the federal government being too involved.  I suspect any radical moves would have been overturned by the Supreme Court during Hoover's tenure.  During another era without having to go through an economic collapse Hoover probably would have a much better legacy as a President.  

Hmmm...he did sign the Smoot Hawley Tariff. That was really stupid 

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) -- King Dollar is creating a new headache for virus-battered economies globally, with emerging markets especially vulnerable as they try to cope with collapsing currencies and plunging demand.

Investors are fleeing emerging markets in record numbers and piling into the safe-haven greenback, with two emergency interest-rate cuts this month by the Federal Reserve doing nothing to diminish the dollar’s appeal.

With the dollar more integrated into the world economy than ever before, its gains are an added stress for businesses and governments as they brace for soaring costs on their dollar debt. The dilemma for emerging market central banks is that as they slash interest rates to support growth, they risk destabilizing their currencies as well if they cut too much.

“The surge in the dollar is another blow to emerging markets,” said Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “The demand for the dollar has outweighed any hit to the U.S. currency from sharply lower Fed rates. EM assets will continue to struggle as investors steer clear of relatively risky assets and maintain a bias for safe havens.”

Turkey’s central bank was the latest emerging market to make an emergency rate cut. South Korea, Chile, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan already eased this week following the Fed’s action Sunday, and South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil are expected to reduce their key rates in coming days.

New research from the Bank for International Settlements shows that since the global financial crisis, unexpected dollar appreciation depresses world trade growth. A reason for this could be a tightening in financial conditions as dollar lending to emerging markets slows, according to the research paper.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-u-dollar-next-big-061231003.html

[RochesterRob]

9 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Hmmm...he did sign the Smoot Hawley Tariff. That was really stupid 

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) -- King Dollar is creating a new headache for virus-battered economies globally, with emerging markets especially vulnerable as they try to cope with collapsing currencies and plunging demand.

Investors are fleeing emerging markets in record numbers and piling into the safe-haven greenback, with two emergency interest-rate cuts this month by the Federal Reserve doing nothing to diminish the dollar’s appeal.

With the dollar more integrated into the world economy than ever before, its gains are an added stress for businesses and governments as they brace for soaring costs on their dollar debt. The dilemma for emerging market central banks is that as they slash interest rates to support growth, they risk destabilizing their currencies as well if they cut too much.

“The surge in the dollar is another blow to emerging markets,” said Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “The demand for the dollar has outweighed any hit to the U.S. currency from sharply lower Fed rates. EM assets will continue to struggle as investors steer clear of relatively risky assets and maintain a bias for safe havens.”

Turkey’s central bank was the latest emerging market to make an emergency rate cut. South Korea, Chile, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan already eased this week following the Fed’s action Sunday, and South Africa, Indonesia and Brazil are expected to reduce their key rates in coming days.

New research from the Bank for International Settlements shows that since the global financial crisis, unexpected dollar appreciation depresses world trade growth. A reason for this could be a tightening in financial conditions as dollar lending to emerging markets slows, according to the research paper.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-u-dollar-next-big-061231003.html

  Hoover was not a huge supporter of S-H.  It was part of the party platform and he felt obligated to go along with it.  Had it taken longer to get through Congress it could have very well died with a veto.  I don't know how much S-H mattered in the end as there was too much production world wide after the 1929 crash.  Agriculture ramped up to export wheat to Europe during and shortly after WWI and was wobbly during the 1920's putting pressure on politicians to fix low commodity prices and prop up farm land values.

[B-Man]

24 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

That is a lie. 

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth

 

Repetition makes a fact seem more true, regardless of whether it is or not.

Understanding this effect can help you avoid falling for propaganda, says psychologist Tom Stafford.

 

 

.

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20161026-how-liars-create-the-illusion-of-truth

 

Repetition makes a fact seem more true, regardless of whether it is or not.

Understanding this effect can help you avoid falling for propaganda, says psychologist Tom Stafford.

 

 

.

It’s nothing, it will go away soon, like a miracle! 

[Gary M]

42 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Could of moved faster if Trump didn’t just dismiss it all as a hoax 

 

Please provide evidence I couldn't find any.

 

And not second opinion pieces I want video of him saying corona is a hoax.