Buffalo_Gal Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Foxx said: agreed 100%. personally, i am going to wait until Monday and see where the world is at at. i think it quite possible we will not be in Kansas anymore. We are tracking stuff but most of the stocks I wanted to buy years ago are still double their 2008 prices. Good for the folks that bought them, bad for me that missed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: I’m just going to throw this out there. If you get this liquid lunch thing under control, I’m starting a grass roots campaign “GG 4 Fed Chair”. I think I'll stick with the liquid lunch 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 It seems to me with the expected disruptions in supply that we could have a very short recession while simultaneously having a surging stock market. The stock market is all about confidence of short and long term values. A thinking person might be able to differentiate between a slow economy caused by a specific reason and a recession caused by a normal slow down. Interested to hear other opinions on this possible phenomenon. 14 minutes ago, GG said: I think I'll stick with the liquid lunch All he asked is for you to get it under control. How about limiting it to a 3 martini lunch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said: It seems to me with the expected disruptions in supply that we could have a very short recession while simultaneously having a surging stock market. The stock market is all about confidence of short and long term values. A thinking person might be able to differentiate between a slow economy caused by a specific reason and a recession caused by a normal slow down. Interested to hear other opinions on this possible phenomenon. All he asked is for you to get it under control. How about limiting it to a 3 martini lunch? #visionary 3rd will be junior assistant executive to the chairman in charge of staffing. The chairman, who I call me, likes his wings extra crispy, his shirts hand-ironed with a sharp crease, and his coffee with no sugar. And yes, there is a role for @Tiberiusin this campaign. 3rd, explain sugar to him, and show him which part of the iron faces down. As this is grass roots, we have no money in the budget for work comp insurance or skin grafts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US Egg Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: We are tracking stuff but most of the stocks I wanted to buy years ago are still double their 2008 prices. Good for the folks that bought them, bad for me that missed out. How 'bout surgical mask co. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: All he asked is for you to get it under control. How about limiting it to a 3 martini lunch? Tequila is much more therapeutic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, GG said: Tequila is much more therapeutic agave or mixted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 Just now, Foxx said: agave or mixted? Up and down the species and distillation from true Tequila, Mezcal and the Sotol cousin. When things get heavy, then you uncork the Racilla. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Yup. 70% of economic activity is consumer spending. Quote Jason Furman was a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, serving as deputy director of the National Economics Council from 2009 to 2013, and as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors from 2013 to 2017. He played a key role in designing the administration’s response to the financial crisis and Great Recession. He’s now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. I’ve spoken with Furman often over the years, and to put it bluntly, I’ve never heard him as alarmed as on Thursday. He believes that coronavirus could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did, and that policymakers aren’t even close to designing a large enough response. In addition, the virus is moving much faster than the financial crisis did, and the government officials who will need to respond to it are in danger of being infected by it. A transcript of our conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity, follows. Ezra Klein Looking at the financial markets and economic data, how much does this feel like 2008 to you? Jason Furman At this point, this feels much worse than 2008. Lehman Brothers was quite bad, but it was the culmination of a sequence of things that had happened over 14 months. This hit all at once. There were a lot of people lucky and privileged enough that they didn’t reduce their spending in 2008. But everyone is doing it now. I was in a restaurant yesterday, possibly for the last time for a while. I was in a taxi, possibly the last time for a while. There are entire industries I interact with where I’m realizing: “This may be the last time I’m paying you for a while.” That didn’t happen in 2008. When you start to think about all of that it just gives you a feeling for the enormity of this economically. If two months from now we go back to normal, I think we’d be okay. If this lasts six months or longer — and I think that’s the more likely scenario — all of that just compounds. Even if you discover a cure in December, you still have people out of jobs, broken balance sheets, bankrupt companies that won’t be particularly eager to hire. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/coronavirus-covid-19-recession-stock-market-economy-jobs-stimulus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said: #visionary 3rd will be junior assistant executive to the chairman in charge of staffing. The chairman, who I call me, likes his wings extra crispy, his shirts hand-ironed with a sharp crease, and his coffee with no sugar. And yes, there is a role for @Tiberiusin this campaign. 3rd, explain sugar to him, and show him which part of the iron faces down. As this is grass roots, we have no money in the budget for work comp insurance or skin grafts. I won't work for a company that doesn't have graft! I tried to explain things to Tiberius once but all he kept saying is "gag me". Not sure if that's a code phrase for something but I've heard it said before (with a wink) by those of his ilk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in Mich Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: It seems to me with the expected disruptions in supply that we could have a very short recession while simultaneously having a surging stock market. The stock market is all about confidence of short and long term values. A thinking person might be able to differentiate between a slow economy caused by a specific reason and a recession caused by a normal slow down. Interested to hear other opinions on this possible phenomenon. Jumping back in 'early' because you realize that the recession is sort of contrived may work well for you. It may be the thinking man's play. In a sense it may very well be right. I wanted to point out however that the 'herd' moves the prices up or down. There have been several times where I was certain I was right and the herd was wrong. Over time, I was even proven right. The herd ran the other way though and my decision, though right, was costly and so, essentially wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, GG said: The op-ed is full of crap. The ultimate market is determined by the underlying value, but the daily swings are motivated by momentum and big traders' spur-of-the-moment actions that amplify volatility. That's the only rational explanation for the markets' gyrations in the last week. Yesterday was a prime example and I watched it unfold in real time during a liquid lunch. Moments within Fed's QE announcement, the markets rallied to pare the big morning losses and were likely to erase the losses by the end of the day. Then within minutes, in prime lunch hour in NY, news started hitting of the canceled NCAA conference tournaments, topped by the stupidity of canceling the Big East tournament at HALFTIME of a game. That stopped the rally in its tracks, which was followed by NHL, March Madness and MLB news, and the selloff resumed. Yes, the market reacts to information. While you are pointing at the day-to-day dramatic movements, my comments were in response to @Rob's House about where the market is going. Based on my view, I said the Fed's rate cuts were a little sugar and would not halt the drop, just as the new $1.5 trillion liquidity injection is--it saves the financial system from freezing up, but that is NOT the issue underlying all of the fear and uncertainty, which is what explains the downward trend. As I said to Rob, I don't believe it will hit bottom until investors have some sense of the magnitude of the virus and are given hope from policy prescriptions that actually impact the spread. Everyone is flying blind, so the trend will continue down until a real response is announced. Actually, now that I think of it, your description of what happened is essentially what I'm saying--a big sugar high from the Fed is wiped out by reactions related to the virus. I'm sure all of that stupidity (cancelling events, etc) is all part if the giant conspiracy to take down trump.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Yup. 70% of economic activity is consumer spending. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/coronavirus-covid-19-recession-stock-market-economy-jobs-stimulus Top economic adviser to Obama? I hope he has other credentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Top economic adviser to Obama? I hope he has other credentials. You are an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 The market will be down by the end of today. We're not near the bottom yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 hours ago, keepthefaith said: The market will be down by the end of today. We're not near the bottom yet. It will depend what he says at 3. Declaring an emergency which frees up funds to the states is very positive. Hope he sticks to his script again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, TPS said: It will depend what he says at 3. Declaring an emergency which frees up funds to the states is very positive. Hope he sticks to his script again... Didn't go so well the last few times he talked at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 I don't know if this is accurate (and doubt it is) -- but posting because the gif made me laugh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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