TakeYouToTasker Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 hours ago, Foxx said: FIRE SALE ON EQUITIES!!!! Get em’ while they’re hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 50 minutes ago, TPS said: Are you suggesting there won't be a recession because of this? If so, I'd like to make a bet... Not at all. GG is correct that the longer it lasts the higher probability of a downturn. If there were to be a big breakthrough soon regarding the virus the market would come roaring back because the confidence would be there. The GDP is another thing. It will reflect how long and how deep the supply issues go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Not at all. GG is correct that the longer it lasts the higher probability of a downturn. If there were to be a big breakthrough soon regarding the virus the market would come roaring back because the confidence would be there. The GDP is another thing. It will reflect how long and how deep the supply issues go on. The probability of a recession is now 100%. The damage has been done, and no matter what the "big breakthrough" is, it will take some time for people to recover from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 17 hours ago, Rob's House said: Where do you see the market going over the next few weeks? Just came across this editorial which expresses what I was trying to say. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-12/stock-markets-need-to-see-the-government-panic?sref=U5wmynFo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 Bloomberg, I've heard that name before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 10 hours ago, TPS said: The probability of a recession is now 100%. The damage has been done, and no matter what the "big breakthrough" is, it will take some time for people to recover from this. Recover in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 29 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Bloomberg, I've heard that name before. You've really become the tibs of the TLS folk... 5 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Recover in what way? Going back to business as usual. Foe example, I doubt the cruise industry will ever get back to a pre-corona level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, TPS said: Going back to business as usual. Foe example, I doubt the cruise industry will ever get back to a pre-corona level. Us humans are pretty resilient beings. And you’re thinking the cruise industry will NEVER recover from this? Seriously? Kind of like saying the airline industry will never recover from 911 and that industry was directly impacted by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, TPS said: You've really become the tibs of the TLS folk... Going back to business as usual. Foe example, I doubt the cruise industry will ever get back to a pre-corona level. The world keeps spinning. Business models change and adapt, people forget and move on. By the way, on that note, I found myself a bit depressed today. I generally turn on the network news channels to get a sense on what they are reporting or suggesting. Mostly, I do it because I like to know how the other side thinks, or at least the narrative they want the rest of the world to believe. It hit me that I feel an awful lot like I did many of the years the O’Biden ticket was in power. It seemed to me there was a constant malaise that hung over that administration, wher the promise of hope and change was replaced with “our best times are behind us, big government is the answer, submit or be marginalized”. When I contrast that with the incredible energy generated by Trump, by the focus on development of the American economy, repatriation of money long out of our economy, the money that has been invested in communities across the areas I’ve travelled, more money in the pockets of the middle class, it’s a pretty stark contrast. it must really be emotionally draining to be an O’Biden Democrat, when everything is doom, gloom, boogeymen in every corner. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 11 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said: i doubt the bottom is in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, TPS said: You've really become the tibs of the TLS folk... Going back to business as usual. Foe example, I doubt the cruise industry will ever get back to a pre-corona level. This from the guy who believed that Trump called the virus a hoax and that Trump told people to go to work if they had the virus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 42 minutes ago, Foxx said: i doubt the bottom is in yet. Probably not, but with all the liquidity being pumped into the system it will come back and then some. Buyers market, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 43 minutes ago, Foxx said: i doubt the bottom is in yet. When you wait for the bottom, you miss the majority of the buying opportunities. The perfect is the enemy of the good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob in Mich Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Foxx said: i doubt the bottom is in yet. Yeah, for years now buying the dip has proven quite profitable. That only works though if the dip is temporary and the market then rises again soon. Doesn't seem that we are yet there. Tough to know when sustained confidence might return. Perhaps when the US daily death rate numbers start falling rather than rising? Edited March 13, 2020 by Bob in Mich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Gal Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, TPS said: You've really become the tibs of the TLS folk... Going back to business as usual. Foe example, I doubt the cruise industry will ever get back to a pre-corona level. People said that after norovirus, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 hours ago, TPS said: Just came across this editorial which expresses what I was trying to say. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-12/stock-markets-need-to-see-the-government-panic?sref=U5wmynFo The op-ed is full of crap. The ultimate market is determined by the underlying value, but the daily swings are motivated by momentum and big traders' spur-of-the-moment actions that amplify volatility. That's the only rational explanation for the markets' gyrations in the last week. Yesterday was a prime example and I watched it unfold in real time during a liquid lunch. Moments within Fed's QE announcement, the markets rallied to pare the big morning losses and were likely to erase the losses by the end of the day. Then within minutes, in prime lunch hour in NY, news started hitting of the canceled NCAA conference tournaments, topped by the stupidity of canceling the Big East tournament at HALFTIME of a game. That stopped the rally in its tracks, which was followed by NHL, March Madness and MLB news, and the selloff resumed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said: Yeah, for years now buying the dip has proven quite profitable. That only works though if the dip is temporary and the market then rises again soon. Doesn't seem that we are yet there. Tough to know when sustained confidence might return. Perhaps when the US death rate numbers start falling rather than rising? Word Bobby, we have reached a place where agree on another issue! Imo, the big problem people have is thinking in terms of The dip and The bottom. It’s like losing 25 pounds, throwing out all your Wranglers and buying up a bunch of skinny jeans. For some, the skinny jeans will get the job done, but for most, rational and reasoned thought should prevail. Maybe the new jeans work, but maybe the real target number for new purchases should have been 20, 18, or 15 pounds off the scale. Dollar cost averaging, knowing ones time horizon and risk tolerance seem to work pretty well over time. If you have some money available to buy on The (latest) dip, have at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said: When you wait for the bottom, you miss the majority of the buying opportunities. The perfect is the enemy of the good. agreed 100%. personally, i am going to wait until Monday and see where the world is at at. i think it quite possible we will not be in Kansas anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leh-nerd skin-erd Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, GG said: The op-ed is full of crap. The ultimate market is determined by the underlying value, but the daily swings are motivated by momentum and big traders' spur-of-the-moment actions that amplify volatility. That's the only rational explanation for the markets' gyrations in the last week. Yesterday was a prime example and I watched it unfold in real time during a liquid lunch. Moments within Fed's QE announcement, the markets rallied to pare the big morning losses and were likely to erase the losses by the end of the day. Then within minutes, in prime lunch hour in NY, news started hitting of the canceled NCAA conference tournaments, topped by the stupidity of canceling the Big East tournament at HALFTIME of a game. That stopped the rally in its tracks, which was followed by NHL, March Madness and MLB news, and the selloff resumed. I’m just going to throw this out there. If you get this liquid lunch thing under control, I’m starting a grass roots campaign “GG 4 Fed Chair”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said: Yeah, for years now buying the dip has proven quite profitable. That only works though if the dip is temporary and the market then rises again soon. Doesn't seem that we are yet there. Tough to know when sustained confidence might return. Perhaps when the US daily death rate numbers start falling rather than rising? it will begin before consumer confidence has returned. the investor confidence will come when there are to be definite signs of things returning to a normal existence. judging that will most likely be tricky. a leveling off might be a good indicator, might not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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