Carucci's update on coaching search

[DC Tom]

Quarterbacks get hit and get hurt. Every one of them. They play through pain. All players at all positions do in fact, except kickers. If you missed one game your entire college career, and broke your pinkie, you are not injury prone. Just the opposite. Sorry to inform you.

 

By his logic, Kiko Alonso is even more injury-prone. He's only played 16 games in two seasons.

[stony]

I'm posing this an honest question because no one here, as far as I can tell, has played QB in the NFL, been an NFL GM or coach, or has much more to go on other than stats and what they see on the field. So we're all in the same boat with that regard.

 

I will preface this by saying there are some issues with EJ that stand out, mainly accuracy and decision-making, although I feel like has was showing more ability to work through reads by the time he was benched.

But here's are a few things before the question... The NFL clearly is about having a QB. Teams clearly overdraft them given their limited supply and desperation. You'd pay $5 for a glass of water if you were dying of thirst rather than wait to see if you could get it for $1. That's basically how drafting QBs functions. I would say lots of GMs draft them in this manner, just look at the track record of first round busts. Others get lucky, like Seattle who signed a mediocre QB as a free agent who threw 6 TDs in his only start the prior season and still drafted Wilson in the third. That FA never saw the field not because the Seahawks were especially smart, but rather they used a later pick to get QB on the roster.

 

So here's the question because everyone is clamoring that we wasted the 2015 first round pick for Watkins yet if we just agree that EJ is garbage, we've wasted the 2013 pick on 14 games.

 

How much time is enough time for a QB? Is it always and should it always bee one and done?

 

It's fundamentally about what used to be the way QBs were groomed and the way they are now. Some QBs are OK from the get go, some had to go through some major lumps. Troy Aikman was flat out garbage his first and second years. He was no superstar statistically and he won three Super Bowls with very good teams built the old fashioned way... run and stop the run and don't make mistakes.

 

His first three years were:

 

11 games, 9 TDs, 18 INTs

15 games, 11 TDs, 18 INTs

12 games, 11 TDs, 10 INTs

 

His fourth season, he was 16 games, 23 TDs, 14 INTs, and a Super Bowl win. Obviously the eras are different and his numbers seek pedestrian in the fourth year but contextually he was among the best.... 2nd in pass completed, 4th in yards, tired for 3rd in TDs (leader was Young with 25) 3rd in rating and did not finish in the top 10 in INTs. To contextualize it some more.... Kelly that year was 5th in completions, 3rd in yards (beat Aikman by 12 yards), was tied with Aikman for 3rd in TDs and was First in INTs with 19. If they dumped him after his first year or two, he;d be labeled a bust.

 

In my mind, the Dolphins are doing it right with Tannehill. Look at his three year progression.... He's played every game and every single stats has improved.He's gone from 12 to 24 to 27 TDs and dropped from 13-17-12 INTs (slight blip there). His rating completion rate is 58%, 60%, 66% and his rating is 76, 81, 92.

 

In this win now league, I think teams make the mistake of starting guys who are raw, typically on horrible teams behind horrible lines, and expecting miracles. I'm not saying EJ is the savior but I'm not one to throw the kid to the curb because when you look at his stat line, it's not that atrocious. When you consider the patience shown by Miami and the progress they've made, you have to wonder what EJ might have been like next season if he started all year and had a good coach. People are saying get Cutler in her, he threw of 28 TDs last year and can sling the ball around the field. Well basically, Tannehill had a better all around year than Cutler and maybe, just maybe, that's what we'd be staring at for next season if EJ had started all along, had this year Sammy, hopefully an improved OL, and a defense that's championship caliber.

 

Instead, the lack of patience has gotten them where? And will the QB in 2015 be better than EJ with two years under his belt? To me, EJ shows more promise and skills than Rob Johnson (30 Bills starts), JP Losman (33 Bills starts), and Trent Edwards (34 Bills starts).

Some good points here. I don't think the Tanny and EJ comparison is valid unfortunately because of the lack of games EJ has played up til this point. I wouldn't expect a huge progression in his third year because of the lack of playing time. This sucks, because I would love to know what we have in him, but it wouldn't surprise me if the new coach looks at the film and draws their final (unfavorable) evaluation.

[TSOL]

 

Picked up, sure. Anointed as the starter, no questions asked? Doubt it.

Also, Hackett is a good coordinator, hes just been too tied to Marrone here in Buffalo. He will have success in the NFL.

 

Annointed? Sounds like a pretty polarizing term. He will be able to win a starting job at some point in the not to distant future.

[Lurker]

All players at all positions do in fact, except kickers.

Didn't Carpenter play with a groin [injury] over the last half of the season...

[BackInDaDay]

does anyone doubt our 2013 1st round pick in not going to get a chance to compete for the starting job?

 

Hackett will be released by the new HC.

if he's not, our new HC better be able to do a better job developing the OC, than Marrone was. i've read an opinion that if Schwartz is hired, Hackett would remain (http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/three-point-stance/2015/01/05/buffalo-bills-coaching-search/21298515/) , but i think a Schwartz hire demands an experienced OC be brought in to keep next years offense from failing as badly as Hackett's offense did this year. on the other hand, the best chance Hackett has is if Mike Shanahan is hired, and is willing to mentor Hackett. i think Hackett's worst quality as a coach was an inability to prepare himself and his players for how his offense would be defended as the game wore on. i believe he was adept at finding an opposing defense's weaknesses during the week, and creating an initial gameplan that took advantage of what he found. but as adjustments were made to handle his attack, he didn't respond well. some of you stat hounds may look up how our O performed by quarter. if we were most successful early - but the reality may not bear out my perception.

 

either way, i don't want to spend another season developing an OC. in the midst of our playoff race, i mentioned how i thought Marrone had a double standard - taking a hard line regarding developing players in games, while doing exactly that with Hackett. like many criticisms of Marrone, at the time, this hypocracy was ignored by most. that's ok.. we live and we learn - but i repeat that here for those of you who're entertaining the thought of providing Hackett a 2nd internship.

Edited January 7, 2015 by BackInDaDay

[Ball'n]

It's amazing hoe easy Bills fans are to turn 180 degrees.

 

A week ago Hackett was persona non grata. Now he's a young promising genius who was simply held back by the coaching equivalent of Josef Stalin, who brought only misery and sorrow to the team.

 

lol

 

I need a drink!

I've been thinking the same thing. From the outside everything is speculative but it seems pretty clear Marrone was not happy with the QB situation while Whaley wanted to stick with EJ, and caused a rift between them during training camp. The only thing I disagree with is that Marrone thought leaving would be risky. Marrones agent likely told him he'd have strong interest if he opted out and based on his personality I'd wager he wasn't thinking that at all. Like you stated, it was more likely anger at the organization.

[Tyrod's Tailor]

Also, Hackett is a good coordinator, hes just been too tied to Marrone here in Buffalo. He will have success in the NFL.

 

Annointed? Sounds like a pretty polarizing term. He will be able to win a starting job at some point in the not to distant future.

 

When has he ever won a competition to play in the NFL? The only way he'll be a starter again is if the Bills hand it to him, which they probably will.

[4merper4mer]

Didn't Carpenter play with a groin [injury] over the last half of the season...

He also got his job because of one.

[TSOL]

 

When has he ever won a competition to play in the NFL? The only way he'll be a starter again is if the Bills hand it to him, which they probably will.

Its not cool to bash EJ anymore, let it go.

[Kelly the Dog]

Didn't Carpenter play with a groin [injury] over the last half of the season...

He's injury prone then.

[fridge]

EJ lacks the things which can't be taught. Pocket presence, accuracy, and an ability to read defenses. Shanahan ain't got time for that.

What a myth.

 

Players that can't read defenses have games as disastrous as those by Manzeil, Clausen, Lindley, Jamarcus Russell, etc.

 

EJ was doing just fine with stats comparable to several good QBs that enter the league.

 

He makes a throw to Watt no different than the one Rosgers threw to Gilmore, but he's on your team and you run people out of town for a living so it's time to sharpen the pitchforks.

 

I'm no EJ apologist, but you make me sound like one when you lack reason and make exaggerations constantly in your crusade.

[Tyrod's Tailor]

Its not cool to bash EJ anymore, let it go.

 

You said he would be picked up by a super smart organization within 45 minutes of leaving Buffalo, so I engaged you on that. You have an odd way of making your points.

[TSOL]

 

You said he would be picked up by a super smart organization within 45 minutes of leaving Buffalo, so I engaged you on that. You have an odd way of making your points.

I said 45 seconds.

 

Hes got skills, he didnt make it to where he is by being annointed. He may need to mature, and have a reasonable group around him, which he hasnt had.

 

I couldnt make my point to you anymore clear if i was using crayons and construction paper.

 

If you wanna hang onto he sucks, thats your bidness, hes a viable NFL QB from where im looking at it.

Edited January 7, 2015 by mastershake

[Kelly the Dog]

does anyone doubt our 2013 1st round pick in not going to get a chance to compete for the starting job?

 

Hackett will be released by the new HC.

if he's not, our new HC better be able to do a better job developing the OC, than Marrone was. i've read an opinion that if Schwartz is hired, Hackett would remain (http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/three-point-stance/2015/01/05/buffalo-bills-coaching-search/21298515/) , but i think a Schwartz hire demands an experienced OC be brought in to keep next years offense from failing as badly as Hackett's offense did this year. on the other hand, the best chance Hackett has is if Mike Shanahan is hired, and is willing to mentor Hackett. i think Hackett's worst quality as a coach was an inability to prepare himself and his players for how his offense would be defended as the game wore on. i believe he was adept at finding an opposing defense's weaknesses during the week, and creating an initial gameplan that took advantage of what he found. but as adjustments were made to handle his attack, he didn't respond well. some of you stat hounds may look up how our O performed by quarter. if we were most successful early - but the reality may not bear out my perception.

 

either way, i don't want to spend another season developing an OC. in the midst of our playoff race, i mentioned how i thought Marrone had a double standard - taking a hard line regarding developing players in games, while doing exactly that with Hackett. like many criticisms of Marrone, at the time, this hypocracy was ignored by most. that's ok.. we live and we learn - but i repeat that here for those of you who're entertaining the thought of providing Hackett a 2nd internship.

I believe Sal M was totally speculating about Schwartz keeping Hackett. He simply said "perhaps" Schwartz keeps him, and that is probably only because of what Fred said. It didn't appear that he heard rumblings that Hackett will be kept or Schwartz likes him a lot.

[Ted William's frozen head]

A reasonable man does not give up on EJ Manuel after 14 games.

Well, the Bills better give away season tickets for '15. We've paid enough for EJ's learning curve of incompetence.

[Bill from NYC]

Thanks -- good link. Here's what this tells me -- the fundamental divide between Marrone and Whaley may be over Manuel, and I can only imagine that it was a bitter split. Very interesting that Whaley has been speaking in glowing terms about EJ.

But Dave, this can be good or bad. There is NO indication that Manuel is a good quarterback.

 

Let's remember, they traded DOWN and took him. If they really thought he would be a top flight QB they would have taken him early, no? Seriously, what normal team would risk losing a good quarterback to pick up an extra 2nd round pick? And as I recall they even gave up an earlier pick in the late rounds with a swap in that trade.

 

Pat Kirwin recently said that running qbs in college who cannot run in the NFL are thrown to the curb, and he sited EJ as an example.

 

I am on record from day 1 as not liking Marrone getting hired. But imo the best thing he ever did was bench Manuel. At least we got to see the Bills win 9 games.

 

Do you think that EJ is, or ever will be a top shelf quarterback? Do you think he will even be mid-range ala Dalton?

[Tyrod's Tailor]

There is NO indication that Manuel is a good quarterback.

 

 

Exactly.

[BuffaloBill]

Whaley is the antithesis of Marrone -- cool, focused, and strategic. Always thinking ahead, sticking to the plan and not succumbing to knee-jerk reactions. A reasonable man does not give up on EJ Manuel after 14 games.

I have a good feeling about Whaley. I have no idea why but he does seem to carry himself well.

[3rdand12]

I continue to say he looked better as a rookie than he did in 2014. I don't know what happened, but I'd love to see him with a different coach and a scheme suited toward his strengths. I just don't trust Marrone anymore, and it leads me to believe he was not committed to his development.

in hindsight , i am really leaning this way too. and some other players possibly. Hell he might have stepped and then stood on Nathaniel during his trail blazing to whatever the heck he was doing ? ala SUH innocently rocking on the calf or Rodgas.

Bring a FA or two draft one even but certainly dont throw the towel in on EJ guys. Coaching is Huge in factoring success with a QB. a

[dave mcbride]

But Dave, this can be good or bad. There is NO indication that Manuel is a good quarterback.Let's remember, they traded DOWN and took him. If they really thought he would be a top flight QB they would have taken him early, no? Seriously, what normal team would risk losing a good quarterback to pick up an extra 2nd round pick? And as I recall they even gave up an earlier pick in the late rounds with a swap in that trade.Pat Kirwin recently said that running qbs in college who cannot run in the NFL are thrown to the curb, and he sited EJ as an example.I am on record from day 1 as not liking Marrone getting hired. But imo the best thing he ever did was bench Manuel. At least we got to see the Bills win 9 games.Do you think that EJ is, or ever will be a top shelf quarterback? Do you think he will even be mid-range ala Dalton?

Oh, I agree Bill. I am decidedly NOT sold on Manuel. I've been very unimpressed with him so far, and I don't have a ton of hope. But I've been wrong lots of times before.