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This has almost become my yearly pre-draft post (like Just Jack's preseason post, only less exciting and more informational) The source is Pro Football Reference Draft Finder, coped into Excel for better slicing and dicing. In previous years, I've used the 'eyeball test', this year I used hard numeric cutoffs. Shout-out to Shady Bills Fan for help with the Excel files. He's a Right Guy! Looking at the first 5 rounds of QB drafted in prev. 20 years (2017 omitted for insufficient data, and didn't go back further due to arguments about rule changes) I calculated three statistics I consider important for QB e v a l: completion percentage, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. My sort criteria were: Greater than 59% completion, Greater than 6.5 YPA, Greater than 1.5 TD/INT (practically speaking, that means if a guy throws 3 TD in a game, he throws 1 and not 2 INTs) Here's what the summarized data look like for success rate in picking a QB who can do these things, by draft round. 1st round broken down further. Bottom line: even at the top of the 1st round, the odds of getting a good QB are something like 50-50. At the bottom of the 1st round, it falls to about 20%, which is the same as the 2nd round. If you play with the criteria a bit, it may rise to 1 out of 3 (30-33%) at the bottom of the 1st round. I'll include the names of the QB these three criteria sorted below, not sure it will be legible: the bottom line is you can nitpick names and cutoffs, but the "song remains the same" overall. Surprises to me: criteria excluded 1st round QB Eli Manning, Cutler, Culpepper, Bridgewater, Campbell. In the later round the surprise exclusion was Schaub (likely be included without his final year). If you add the criterion of averaging >220 ypg, you exclude Kaepernick and Tannehill The data suggest a couple things. Not shown, but with 2 exceptions, all the successful high 1st round QB were pick 1 or 2. Therefore, it may be unwise to mortgage too much of the draft to get to the 1st round 3-5 picks: Go Hard, or stay home. The success rate in picks 6-10 is no higher than the success rate in the 2nd round. It rises from pick 11-20, so if we're going to trade up, trading up a few picks may be the value strategy vs trading up to pick 3-10. After the 3rd round, it's basically throwing darts. This is why letting someone else throw the dart, and trying to pluck the bulls eye off the dartboard is a popular choice. If you start writing a response, "You need to look at this that or the other data or recalculate everything with the moon over the formahaut and X set to Malignify", please save us all time and dial 1-800-Bite-Mee - No seriously, check your personal vals, bro. You're welcome to take and massage the data for yourself. If you message politely I'll even get you my excel file.
BigBuff423 posted a topic in The Stadium WallAndrew Brandt did a nice job showing the strategy and events that led to the Eagles getting Wentz, trading Bradford, and "accelerated the process" by tearing down the organization and building on cornerstone players. https://theathletic.com/148448/2017/11/06/brandt-a-mixture-of-smarts-and-serendipity-helped-the-eagles-land-carson-wentz/ "When referring to The Process about a Philadelphia sports team, the conversation usually turns to the NBA’s 76ers. The Process is an ideology, meticulously crafted by former general manager Sam Hinkie, that rejects mediocrity, tearing down the franchise to its studs and building it with cornerstone players destined for sustained success." "In the first half of a season that no one saw coming—don’t believe them if they say they did—the Eagles have the NFL’s best record (8-1), are widely regarded as the NFL’s best team, and continue to win convincingly despite injuries to their best cornerback (Ronald Darby), best offensive lineman (Jason Peters) and most versatile offensive weapon (Darren Sproles). There are many reasons for their stunning success, but the primary one is that they found a generational player to lead them. Carson Wentz gives the Eagles, and Eagles fans, reason to believe they will be championship contenders for years to come. A combination of deft trading and leveraging of another team’s desperation in 2016 is now paying dramatic dividends" Brandt explains how the Eagles took the risk in playing Carson Wentz in his Rookie season and of course, how now it's contributing to their teams' wins and overcoming the difficulty of injuries to some key players. The Process, has been used by McDermott but if you buy into this principle as noted above, you MUST begin at the QB position. Something the Bills fans seem to know more than the team itself. Every year we're convinced the Bills have found a "cheap" or "fast" way to get a QB so they can also have All-Pro players surrounding the aforementioned QB to be better. Yet, what most of us fans have learned that apparently the Bills Front Office has not, is that the QB MAKES those players around him better, not vice-versa - they are great because your QB is great. There is a litany of examples from both history and contemporary players where a good WR or TE or RB goes to another team and never gains the type of production they had with their prior team that was manned by a great Quarterback. I can only hope that because Beane was hired after the Draft and that McDermott decided to simply stay the course for a year and build Draft picks, evaluate some players to keep, and feel fully convinced to let other players go after this year to release some FA money, they actually do intend on selling-out for a QB, no matter the cost - because in the end, it will be well worth it. In full disclosure, I was counted among those who wanted to give Peterman a chance, because I believed the Offense would improve based on his strengths to staying in the pocket, anticipate a WR / TE open, and get the ball out faster. I was wrong....but, also, the Offensive line is atrocious and the Defense could NOT stop anyone. So, while Peterman is not ready, his Rookie production - or catastrophic lack thereof - was exacerbated by the previously mentioned deficiencies. I also wanted Peterman to start because to me, if the Bills brass does not know definitively that he either IS or IS NOT the answer to QB, it would lead to vacillation and equivocal planning toward the QB position. Hopefully, this last game highlights the absolute desperation that should be the Bills state of thinking regarding the QB position and how it can immeasurable alter the course of their future. But, only 2018 will answer these questions for us fans....something we apparently understood years ago that Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley never figured out.