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Found 23 results

  1. Football Outsiders Draft Guide

    ESPN Insider published Football Outsiders' Draft Guide for each team. I'll post the Bills needs and a small bit of the commentary for each. Biggest Need: QB Quiet Need: LB Not a Need: RB Not exactly news on this board, but it's nice to see a national piece that makes some sense I suppose.
  2. And I'm almost sure of it if nothing crazy happens lol BTW I'm New To The Site. First Topic. And would like to say hello to all my bills family N Bills mafia. OK this is why I am almost certain The bills are in rebuild mode and they need most picks as possible. Plus they need all the cap they can get. and they sure like Mayfield a lot I mean who doesn't. He's a Leader and a Accurate Passer And all around great guy with so munch up site to post we all know what Baker is capable of doing. I think this kid will be a great fit for the bills as well and we will save a ton of picks and cash and pick the right kid The bills been looking for for a while now. I been a bills fan for 15 plus years now in trust me It's hard being a bills fan but I got so much Passion for the bills all my life and I know them like my son. I expect the bills trade for numbers 6 or 8 to make this move for Baker And we give our 1st number 12. N 2nd I think the bills will be a Playoff Team for the next 10 years. Because they're finally getting it all together now. And Baker will be the last piece of the puzzle. I also think for 22nd And one of are 3rds picks will get Oline/guards I have never been more excited entering in a draft class like this one In specially with the right coach and people behind us. And remember this post guys I have a gut feeling it will happen... Any thoughts
  3. Reallly! Now ,,,we are stuck with our beloved Bills, picking Lamar at 12, rendering us virtually a guy with same traits, only that a rookie at it, which is a downgrade!
  4. So What about a WR

    So all this talk about QB's and trading up is nice and all but what about the guys they throw to? What are some receivers you'd like to see Buffalo go after? (Round doesn't matter) Right now in the mid rounds I wouldn't hate seeing us take Antonio Callaway out of Florida. (Kinda bias because I'm a Gators fan) But still if the guy has his act together and is ready to play football he's a good receiver as well as a good return man. Anything can be better than Brandon "19 Yardline" Tate returning for us. Right now we have KB just coming of surgery, Zay running around naked not catching anything but Johnny Law, and a pack of guys that just haven't been able to put it all together yet. Yeah load the ammo in the gun and pull the trigger on the QB but how much success are they expecting from a kid that doesn't have a few guys that are going to make plays for him?
  5. If capped contracts on rookies, specifically QBs weren't in place, do you think this many would be going in the first round this year? We've seen teams that have had success with QBs on rookie contracts take advantage of their low cap number and load up on talent in other areas. Before if a team made a mistake at QB in RD #1 it would set them back years, from a cap perspective. It's a copy-cat league and these teams want to get away with having control of a QB for 4-5 years with a bargain cap number. Not that I disagree with this philosophy, but I think we're seeing a false rise up the boards of these QBs, potentially due the positive financial implications if you're lucky enough to hit on a starter. I hope they'er lucky enough to find one of the 1-2 guys that will actually pan out. I think this crop of QBs would be spread between rounds 1-3, if not the precedent that's starting to show itself. We need to dodge the fools gold, and if we can't get QB they're 100% confident in, draft BPA. Stud players in other positions are dropping due to the false inflation of some guys that in other drafts that would be lucky to be picked before the second round. I know some of you think we should sell the farm no matter what. But what if the talent this year doesn't justify it? Just an FYI, when the eagles drafted Wentz, they did so because all their scouts and consultants indicated the QB crop from college was progressively going to get worse. This is due to running gimmicky offenses, always being shotgun, emphasis on the screen game and defensive looks. I think it's harder now than ever to know if a QB with translate into the pro game. Buyer beware. *League rank of starting QB cap hit for protected starters in 2018. (From PFT.com) 23. Mitch Trubisky: $7.258 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 2 pick. 24. Jared Goff: $6.984 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2016, as the No. 1 pick. 25. Carson Wentz: $6.669 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2016, as the No. 2 pick. 26. Jameis Winston: $6.337 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2015, as the No. 1 pick. 27. Marcus Mariota: $6.053 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2015, as the No. 2 pick. 28. Patrick Mahomes: $4.1 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 10 pick. 29. Deshaun Watson: $3.463 million. Slotted rookie deal from 2017, as the No. 12 pick. 30. Dak Prescott: $680,000. By rule, he can’t sign a new deal until after 2018. *The list doesn’t include 32 quarterbacks, given the possibility that one or more rookie quarterbacks will be Week One starters.
  6. Feel free to criticize anything I'm about to type here, but I implore you to read the entire post first because I simply don't understand why more Bills fans refuse to jump on the Lamar Jackson train. He threw for more one more touchdown than Rosen and Darnold in a much tougher conference on a less talented team. (this is coming from a Louisville fan so please, call me biased, I'll be the first to admit it) He ran for 50 touchdowns in his career. He threw for 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his last year while rushing for 18 touchdowns. This is following a year in which he won the Heisman trophy and every coach is keying in on stopping him more than any other single player. He had the same amount of interceptions as Rosen last year, yet Rosen is consistently crowned by "experts" as the most polished, accurate, NFL ready QB in the draft, while Jackson is considered the most innacurate QB in the draft...WHAT?? Experts praise Allen for his arm strength and how much zip he can put on the ball, he's also praised for his big frame. Meanwhile Jackson is only 2 inches shorter than Allen...oh and here's a video of Lamar throwing a football 95 yards in high school: If that video is too low quality for you I understand. Here's a video of Jackson nearly breaking dude's fingers in 2014: The receivers' reactions say it all. Lamar Jackson had the highest receiver drop rate in the country last year. Why is this? Because he has an absolute ROCKET of an arm. One of the main criticisms of Jackson is his poor completion percentage. Here are the completion stats for each of the top QB prospects last year per sports-reference.com. Darnold: 64.9% Mayfield: 70.5% Rosen: 62.6% Allen: 56.2% Jackson: 57% With the highest receiver drop rate in the country He's consistently had a laxkluster offensive line during his tenure while going up against some of the best defensive lines in the country in the ACC. His running back was a quarterback converted to receiver (with the emergence of Jackson) converted again to running back in Jackson's final year. With this being said Jackson's statistics are absolutely unprecedented. Michael Vick has gone on record several times saying Jackson is better than he was at that age, which for whatever reason seems to mean nothing to anybody. 2001 Michael Vick: 6'0 210lbs 2018 Lamar Jackson: 6'3 200lbs Experts also question his football IQ...take away your bias if who he is as a man, if you don't think Bobby Petrino runs one of the more complicated offensive systems in football then I have to question whether you actually watch both college and professional football or if you just allow yourself to be spoon-fed whatever NFL Network and ESPN tells you. During Jackson's freshman year when he came in and dominated Bobby Petrino went on record as saying Jackson didn't even know the majority of the plays yet when he got his first start. The next year he had one of the best statistical season in history and won the Heisman trophy over Deshaun Watson who probably would have won it almost any other year with his 2016-17 stats and is currently looking like the best QB from last years draft. Football IQ can be taught, talent cannot. I'm not going to sully this post by trying to make the case for Jackson being the victim of some systemic racial QB bias, but the case these so-called experts make for the rest of the quarterbacks in this draft being a better prospect than Jackson just do not make any sense to me. The only quarterback I think who may be a better prospect than Jackson is Mayfield. There are holes all over this roster despite our lucking into the playoffs last year on a miracle throw/upset. Trading up into the top 5 to take a Rosen or Allen would be a huge mistake IMO when we can draft Jackson at either 12 or 22 and use our other 5 picks in the top 3 rounds to take franchise players who will KEEP us in the playoffs. Thanks for reading. Feel free to make a counter argument, but I'm going to finish this post with his highlights from last year and I just want you to imagine a backfield with Lamar Jackson and Shady McCoy and tell me that wouldn't be a fun time to be a Bills fan.
  7. Article: One Team's Draft Board

  8. There are other threads on the topic but this very well may be a monumental day for our franchise so I felt as though it deserved its own thread. Why is this day so important? Today, the draft's most polarizing prospect will be on display at Wyoming's Pro Day: Josh Allen. He has the natural talent that makes scouts and GM's pants tight. He is still very much in the discussion at #1 and a big day today could have huge ramifications for our draft. Pros: As we saw at the combine, Allen has the "wow factor" that really pops in person. He's huge at 6'5" 240 with over 10" hands. To go with that size, he has impressive athleticism that will also be on display. It is believed he will run a 4.6 in the 40 (he ran 4.76 at the combine). When you see him live, you can't help but be impressed. The ball whizzes through the air and there is an audible pop when it hits the receivers hands. He can easily throw 80 yards in the air and we have all seen the video of him throwing it 50 yards from his knees and hitting the goalpost. When you put it all together, it's quite the impressive product. Will it be enough to impress Cleveland at the top of the draft? Cons: On the other side of the discussion, Allen seems to have just as many detractors as he does supporters. He checks all of the boxes of a franchise QB except for when it comes to putting it all together on the field. He has struggled at times with accuracy, decision making, and interceptions. Scouts will tell you that his struggles are a result of not having a supporting cast around him and Allen trying to do too much on his own. Wyoming obviously doesn't get the best of the best when it comes to recruiting. Allen himself was not highly recruited coming out of high school and had to go the Junior College route before landing at Wyoming, his only full-ride D1 offer. But when you draft a player that high, you want to see a good history of success at the position. It's widely believed that accuracy is a big indicator of success at the next level and Allen's career 56% completion percentage leaves a lot to be desired. Typically 60% is the cutoff. There are examples of QB's with poor completion percentage having success in the NFL (Favre, Vick) but the majority flame out. His decision making has also been an issue. For every big play, there seems to be two plays that leave you scratching your head wondering "what the heck was he thinking?" During his junior year, 4% of his passes were intercepted. Lucky for him, he throws the ball so hard that a lot of the int's were dropped. He might not be so lucky at the next level. Draft Ramifications: Despite some of the knocks against him, Josh Allen just looks the part of an NFL franchise QB. He has the prototypical traits that teams, especially cold weather teams, look for. It is believed that Sam Darnold was able to solidify the top spot in the draft with an impressive Pro Day on Wednesday, but a lot of draft analysts say that it's not a done deal and with a big day Josh Allen might still be in that conversation. Allen definitely has the talent to really put on a show today and it will be interesting to see how it goes. Be sure to tune in to NFL Network at 2pm to see for yourself! Let's just imagine a scenario where Josh Allen absolutely blows people away today. Cleveland may decide this kid is far too talented to pass up at 1. With Tyrod at QB, they may feel they have the time to develop Allen and they may decide that the risk is well worth the reward. A decision like that would send shockwaves throughout the entire draft. Now Darnold and Rosen, who many feel are the top two QB's, are pushed down the draft board. With Darnold available at 2, is that enough to entice Beane to go all in and make the deal with the Giants? It would be costly, possibly 3x #1 picks. Or perhaps Rosen is their target and they are now able to get him at pick #4 in a trade with Cleveland. It would still be costly but not nearly as costly as going to #2. That would represent a tremendous value to be able to get the QB that many feel is the best in the draft at pick 4. Or maybe Beane lets it play out and the Broncos pick Mayfield over Rosen and then he is available at 6 and maybe it only costs your 1sts and one of your 2nd's to get him. Or if you are a Mayfield fan, with Rosen sitting there at 5 that might be too attractive for the Broncos to pass up and so Mayfield falls. The possibilities are endless but the fact of the matter is that as Bills fans we should all be rooting for Josh Allen today. If a lot of the mock drafts are to be believed, he very well may be our next QB. At the very least he might be attractive enough to other teams where they decide he is worth the risk and then other more popular options fall to us. Be sure to tune in to NFL Network at 2pm to watch it live. It should be quite the show!!!
  9. Teams do draft elsewhere than QB....

    This is my entry for "TBD post themes I'm a bit aged on seeing": writing from the viewpoint that any team who doesn't intend to draft a QB is a partner to trade back. We need a QB, so we have the natural tendency to view the draft from a QB-centric lens, and to believe that everyone who doesn't need a QB might take one high "just because" or else will be happy to trade out of their top-5 pick. But let's take a deep breath and insert some facts into the discussion, 'kay? Since 2011 (when the CBA was implemented and signing a top-5 rookie QB would no longer cost a King's Ransom and kill the cap if they bust), teams have become more willing to take a shot at a QB high. But.... ....19 out of the 28 top 5 picks since 2011 have been used on positions OTHER than QB. Here's how it breaks down: 8 picks on defense: DE 5 DT 1 LB 2 20 picks on offense: QB 9 OT 5 WR 3 RB 3 So you see, despite the common conviction that if a team doesn't want to draft a QB with their top 5 pick they will automagically become a willing partner to swap out of that pick resulting in 6 QB drafted with the top 4 picks this year, it actually doesn't happen that way IRL. 2/3 of the time teams hold onto their picks and draft someone they believe will be a franchise-changer for them at another position, most commonly DE or OT but also RB - and it has to be pointed out that in the last 2 years, Fournette and Elliot have been franchise-changers for their team. I was going to tuck this into another thread, but I think it's worth seeing on its own. Bottom line: just because a team does not wish to draft a QB in the top 5, does NOT mean they will want to trade it. They might, or depending upon their viewpoint of the other top players in the draft and their team's needs, they may choose to stand pat and pull the trigger at another position.
  10. With all the talk of trading up I thought I would take a look at how well teams pick at the top half of the draft. I looked at just the top 15 pics over a decade 2005-2015 (11 years). I graded each pick as HIT / SO-SO / BUST. I defined HIT as someone who had their 5th year option picked up, was re-signed by team drafting them or signed a big FA contract once their rookie deal was up. For those still on their rookie contract they had to be full-time starters from year 1 and made the Pro-bowl. That's what you'd expect from a top 15 pick. Here are the results by position: Position Hit So-so Bust QB 26% 32% 42% RB 31% 38% 31% WR 39% 17% 44% OL 38% 38% 24% DL 43% 26% 31% LB 57% 17% 26% DB 33% 38% 29% Offense 34% 32% 34% Defense 44% 27% 29% Total 39% 29% 32% Other than at LB the drafting success of the entire league scouting system for the top 15 picks of the draft is less than a coin flip. These should be the most sure-fire perennial Pro Bowlers. If the league's collective wisdom can't be above 50% with these pics, why would you ever trade up? Much less, for a QB, which is the worst performing position. I further looked at QBs in just the top 5 in the same period. The HIT rate "rises" to 38%,... certainly uninspiring. With at least 4 QBs projected in the top 15 pics, we should expect that at least 2 of them will be BUSTs.
  11. Realistic expectations for Draftee QB

    We've had the unrealistic expectations for draftee QB thread. Some have made the statement that our fans won't accept 2 years for a QB to start. I thought it might be useful to look at how some of today's best QB performed their first years in the league. There are two parameters - when did the QB start? and when did the QB start to play well? "Play well" is kind of a nebulous target, but I look for >60% completions and avg <1 INT per game. Bottom line up front: by far the most likely result of a draftee QB who starts immediately is that it will take at least a year to play well (63%). 38% took more than 1 year. 38% played well immediately. Of those who sat for 1 or more year, 60% played well immediately, and 40% took one or more years. All those who played well immediately were sitting behind established starters. Overall, 38% required 2 or more years between starting and playing well. So if you want the Bills to draft a QB, you might want to stock up on patience (or Maalox) QB - years to start - (years to play well) Matt Ryan- 0 - (0) Ben Roethlisberger -0- (0) Russ Wilson -0-(0) Andy Dalton -0-(0) Dak Prescott -0-(0) Marcus Mariota -0-0 Derek Carr 0 -(1) Joe Flacco -0-(1) Jared Goff 0 -(1) Carson Wentz -0-(1) Jameis Winston -0- (2) Cam Newton -0-(3) Matt Stafford -0- (3 - though this is giving him a pass on the INTs due to high TD) Blake Bortles -0- (4) Alex Smith -0- (4 to 6) Eli Manning -0- (5) Tom Brady -1- (1) Drew Brees -1- (3) Aaron Rodgers -3- (3) Phil Rivers -3- (3) Kirk Cousins -3- (4) Of 21 QB now playing as starters, we see they fall into 3 groups. 5/21 started immediately and played well out of the gate 10/21 started immediately and took 1 or more years to find their feet. Of those, 4/10 took 1 year 6/10 took 2 or more years 5/21 sat for at least 1 year 3/5 played well immediately once they started 2/5 took 1 or more years once they started playing QB not included for insufficient data or not established as starters: Watson, Garappolo,Trubisky, Kiser, Keenum, Brissett, Foles, Taylor, McCown, Siemian Luck -0-(1) Bradford and Bridgewater not included due to uncertain injury status.
  12. I would love to have Kiper's top 10 QB off his big board for the last 6 or 7 years and compare to 1) actual draft order 2) actual NFL performance You bring da data and I can bring da compare Say 2010-2016, you can skip 2013
  13. Fantastic Database on College Prospects

    Credit to DC Orange who posted this more appropriately in the College Football forum. But since at this time of year with the draft, speculation on the best choices for the Bills picks drifts over here, I wanted to give it a bump. Click on (say) QB, and then click on the tape column, and it will take you to a pile o' links on a guy. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13RgfxMu4CW0NKMZebZ88cgg7b7MlszjfzXxEeId7Y34/htmlview# Highly recommend, four thumbs up!
  14. I will break this out as a separate topic as it got lost during a thread. I would appreciate if anyone can provide insight on how it would work to include a player for a trade-up during the draft. Can you give an example of a time when it happened? Not before the draft (common) but actually ON DRAFT DAY, during the draft I see it as problematical. Normally, the procedure on a trade is: 1) teams agree in principle on terms 2) teams file paperwork with NFL 3) traded player reports to new team for physical 4) new team signs off that player has passed physical 5) trade goes through OR 4) new team says player has not passed physical 5) trade is renegotiated OR trade is voided If you trade for a player during the draft, steps 3) to 5) seem problematical - it would obviously be hard to void the trade and get your pick back when it's already been used.
  15. One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections. (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff) Josh Allen - BUST. This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate. He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate. Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB. It's not 1977 anymore. You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS. That's what Allen will be. Darnold - HIT. Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open". I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL. Rosen - MISS. I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone. Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time. He is Jay Cutler. He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner. He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go. Mayfield - HIT. Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs. His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win. The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys. Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED. He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter. Reps help. He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs. makes plays. So what he is 6'1. In this class, he is my no.1 guy. Lamar Jackson - BUST. While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower. He doesn't "win" in the pocket. He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB. This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board. My thoughts on some other notables: Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen. I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something. Luke Falk. Career backup. Accurate thrower. Not a strong NFL arm. benefited from system he played in. Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game. I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say. ***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in. If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it. Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out. If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it. .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins. He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him. that matters and it's worth paying for.
  16. I have done some under the radar reporting on Lauletta recently, but his stock is rising after holding his own among the 'elite' prospects at the senior bowl last week. And as one source of mine stated: "In this league it's not about the size of the (college) program you come from, it's what you do when you get here' Personally I have a 5th round grade on him, but don't be surprised if a shrewd team (i.e. the patriots) take him much higher. In fact I've been hearing whispers that Lauletta is in fact high on the NE radar and these are the exact type of guys Belichick has found success with in years past like Jimmy G also coming out of a lesser college program. Not saying the Bills should pounce because Lauletta is certainly a developmental prospect and nowhere ready to be a starter, but if we are looking for another option to sit a few years and learn behind NP it would be a smart choice and we could find ourselves in a situation with two legit NFL starters a few years from now.
  17. I'm hearing a lot of buzz around Tanner Lee despite his less than stellar Sr. Bowl showing. And considering he wasn't even the greatest college QB some would wonder what the hype is about. But quite frankly he could be this year's Nathan Peterman since he has a lot of raw skill and pretty much all the tools that NFL scouts and GM's tend to covet.....most notably the size, arm strength, leadership and accuracy. Regardless I don't expect him to be drafted too high unless there is a true desperation run at QB's this year. He's probably more of a round 3 - 5 type of guy and I have him graded out as a 4th rounder on my big board. But if we are looking for another solid developmental prospect to compete for the backup job behind Peterman he might be a good choice in the mid rounds if he's still available.
  18. It’s always fun this time of year to try and guess what will happen on draft day. This year is particularly fun because of the larger than usual stable of seemingly quality QBs. Most draft pundits will qualify their expectation of a team taking a QB with what happens if said team picks up a FA QB. Given that, here is my prognostication on what teams will do, including where I think the FA QBs will land. My authority? None other than a life long student of the game. So, for you reading enjoyment… If you can believe it, there are 30 Unrestricted Free Agent quarterbacks available at the end of the season. However, 24 of them will likely not be starting for any NFL team by design. So I have only concerned myself with six: Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, and the entire Vikings QB room of Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford. Brees and Garoppolo aren’t going anywhere. Expect both to be resigned to a multi-year deal. The Vikings would like to keep both Bridgewater and Keenum but that is unlikely. My sense is they will end up signing Bridgewater. So that leave 3, Keenum, Bradford & Cousins. To that I will add Alex Smith who I fully expect to be traded. So let’s start with the veterans first. Cousins goes to Denver. He wants out of Washington and that gives the Broncos time to work on developing their young guys or at least kicking the can down the road for a few years. They are now out of the draft market for a QB in 2018, at least in round 1. Keenum goes to AZ. He wants both to start somewhere and not be in a situation where he might find himself as a back-up again on opening day. That eliminates the possibility of he and Bridgewater both being on the Vikings in 2018. I think AZ is still in play to draft a QB given they have nobody under contract and the current CBA makes it affordable given where they are drafting. Smith goes to Cleveland via trade. Cleveland will still draft a QB at #4. Bradford goes to Washington on a two-year deal and they look to draft a QB in the first round for Bradford to mentor. The problem is, that still leaves more QB needy teams than QBs available in the draft. So looking in to my crystal ball, here is where the QBs go in the first round. #2 Giants – Josh Rosen – The perfect guy to sit behind Manning and learn, develop a pro body and perfect his craft. #4 Browns – Sam Darnold – After taking Barkley #1, they get their future FQB to learn from Smith. #5 TRADE – I expect someone to trade up with the Broncos to get their next FQB. I see three teams that might pull the trigger here: Buffalo with two first round picks, Arizona because they know the guy they want will not drop to them at 15 and … here is my ‘What In The Hell Were You Thinking’ pick – The New Orleans Saints select Baker Mayfield for life after Brees. #6 Jets – Lamar Jackson – Even with Josh Allen still on the board, the Jets select Jackson. NY is a tough place to play and while Allen has promise, the fans will not be very patient. Jackson’s dual threat abilities will buy him some more time and at least put an entertaining product on the field. #12 – TRADE – Josh Allen will be too big a draw for a QB needy team to wait. The Cardinals trade up three spots to take Allen. It won’t cost them a lot to move up and if they wait, Allen will be gone by 15. #13 – Redskins – Mason Rudoph – The Skins would have liked someone else but their choices are limited since their strategy was to wait for Allen or Mayfield to drop to them. Bad gamble that didn’t pay off. Having hitched their mentor QB wagon to Bradford, they must pull the trigger here on Rudolph. So there you have it, six QBs in the top 13 picks. Please let me know what you think or if you are interested in what I am smokin. Wait, one bonus pick: The Patriots select their next guy to sit behind Brady at the end of the 3rd round in Kyle Lauletta, OB from Richmond.
  19. Does our first 1st round pick actually have more value to other teams than our 2nd first round pick? I realize the draft points trade chart assigns it more value, but does it have more practical value to the other team unless they believe we will trade both picks, or the trade partner believes we want the same player as them. In a trade down situation, unless we believe the trade partner wants the exact same player as we do, why would we not trade our first pick, rather than our 2nd, and get 20 extra points? I have begun to think that if Mayfield does not magically drop, maybe we should trade down to get a QB. I just can't see using a 21 or 22 pick on the likes of a Rudolph , Jackson, Lauletta. White or others. The top 3 are out of reach. If you really want one of the non top 4 that badly, it seems you could assuredly get them with a very late 1 or an early 2 and get some badly needed extra picks to fill out our many critical needs on offense and defense. Would NFL teams really put much value on the difference between our two picks when they are one after the other?
  20. How can Cleveland draft a quarterback overall at 1, and expect to retain said player (if they become a franchise guy), Myles Garrett, and whomever is BPA at 4? Maybe they are the most logical trade partner?
  21. A friend sent me this link to First Pick. It's a draft simulator, and it's a lot of fun! You select the team you'd be drafting for, and then you can run automated drafts. It changes every time which makes it fun, and you can trade up or down. You can move forward pick by pick, or skip to your pick. It's crazy how many teams may actually take a first round QB. In one of the drafts Josh Allen was on the board at 21 (Only time thats happened by the way) and I traded away the pick to Minnesota figuring I'd pick up some great picks, and still get Allen, but then they took him. Drove me nuts! In many of the simulations I've run there are 4 QB's off the board by the time we pick, sometimes as many as 4 QB's taken over the first 6 picks! Anyways, I was having a blast and thought some of you might enjoy it too. But don't blame me if you don't get any work done for the rest of the day!
  22. This has almost become my yearly pre-draft post (like Just Jack's preseason post, only less exciting and more informational) The source is Pro Football Reference Draft Finder, coped into Excel for better slicing and dicing. In previous years, I've used the 'eyeball test', this year I used hard numeric cutoffs. Shout-out to Shady Bills Fan for help with the Excel files. He's a Right Guy! Looking at the first 5 rounds of QB drafted in prev. 20 years (2017 omitted for insufficient data, and didn't go back further due to arguments about rule changes) I calculated three statistics I consider important for QB e v a l: completion percentage, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. My sort criteria were: Greater than 59% completion, Greater than 6.5 YPA, Greater than 1.5 TD/INT (practically speaking, that means if a guy throws 3 TD in a game, he throws 1 and not 2 INTs) Here's what the summarized data look like for success rate in picking a QB who can do these things, by draft round. 1st round broken down further. Bottom line: even at the top of the 1st round, the odds of getting a good QB are something like 50-50. At the bottom of the 1st round, it falls to about 20%, which is the same as the 2nd round. If you play with the criteria a bit, it may rise to 1 out of 3 (30-33%) at the bottom of the 1st round. I'll include the names of the QB these three criteria sorted below, not sure it will be legible: the bottom line is you can nitpick names and cutoffs, but the "song remains the same" overall. Surprises to me: criteria excluded 1st round QB Eli Manning, Cutler, Culpepper, Bridgewater, Campbell. In the later round the surprise exclusion was Schaub (likely be included without his final year). If you add the criterion of averaging >220 ypg, you exclude Kaepernick and Tannehill The data suggest a couple things. Not shown, but with 2 exceptions, all the successful high 1st round QB were pick 1 or 2. Therefore, it may be unwise to mortgage too much of the draft to get to the 1st round 3-5 picks: Go Hard, or stay home. The success rate in picks 6-10 is no higher than the success rate in the 2nd round. It rises from pick 11-20, so if we're going to trade up, trading up a few picks may be the value strategy vs trading up to pick 3-10. After the 3rd round, it's basically throwing darts. This is why letting someone else throw the dart, and trying to pluck the bulls eye off the dartboard is a popular choice. If you start writing a response, "You need to look at this that or the other data or recalculate everything with the moon over the formahaut and X set to Malignify", please save us all time and dial 1-800-Bite-Mee - No seriously, check your personal vals, bro. You're welcome to take and massage the data for yourself. If you message politely I'll even get you my excel file.