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A friend sent me this link to First Pick. It's a draft simulator, and it's a lot of fun! You select the team you'd be drafting for, and then you can run automated drafts. It changes every time which makes it fun, and you can trade up or down. You can move forward pick by pick, or skip to your pick. It's crazy how many teams may actually take a first round QB. In one of the drafts Josh Allen was on the board at 21 (Only time thats happened by the way) and I traded away the pick to Minnesota figuring I'd pick up some great picks, and still get Allen, but then they took him. Drove me nuts! In many of the simulations I've run there are 4 QB's off the board by the time we pick, sometimes as many as 4 QB's taken over the first 6 picks! Anyways, I was having a blast and thought some of you might enjoy it too. But don't blame me if you don't get any work done for the rest of the day!
This has almost become my yearly pre-draft post (like Just Jack's preseason post, only less exciting and more informational) The source is Pro Football Reference Draft Finder, coped into Excel for better slicing and dicing. In previous years, I've used the 'eyeball test', this year I used hard numeric cutoffs. Shout-out to Shady Bills Fan for help with the Excel files. He's a Right Guy! Looking at the first 5 rounds of QB drafted in prev. 20 years (2017 omitted for insufficient data, and didn't go back further due to arguments about rule changes) I calculated three statistics I consider important for QB e v a l: completion percentage, YPA, and TD/INT ratio. My sort criteria were: Greater than 59% completion, Greater than 6.5 YPA, Greater than 1.5 TD/INT (practically speaking, that means if a guy throws 3 TD in a game, he throws 1 and not 2 INTs) Here's what the summarized data look like for success rate in picking a QB who can do these things, by draft round. 1st round broken down further. Bottom line: even at the top of the 1st round, the odds of getting a good QB are something like 50-50. At the bottom of the 1st round, it falls to about 20%, which is the same as the 2nd round. If you play with the criteria a bit, it may rise to 1 out of 3 (30-33%) at the bottom of the 1st round. I'll include the names of the QB these three criteria sorted below, not sure it will be legible: the bottom line is you can nitpick names and cutoffs, but the "song remains the same" overall. Surprises to me: criteria excluded 1st round QB Eli Manning, Cutler, Culpepper, Bridgewater, Campbell. In the later round the surprise exclusion was Schaub (likely be included without his final year). If you add the criterion of averaging >220 ypg, you exclude Kaepernick and Tannehill The data suggest a couple things. Not shown, but with 2 exceptions, all the successful high 1st round QB were pick 1 or 2. Therefore, it may be unwise to mortgage too much of the draft to get to the 1st round 3-5 picks: Go Hard, or stay home. The success rate in picks 6-10 is no higher than the success rate in the 2nd round. It rises from pick 11-20, so if we're going to trade up, trading up a few picks may be the value strategy vs trading up to pick 3-10. After the 3rd round, it's basically throwing darts. This is why letting someone else throw the dart, and trying to pluck the bulls eye off the dartboard is a popular choice. If you start writing a response, "You need to look at this that or the other data or recalculate everything with the moon over the formahaut and X set to Malignify", please save us all time and dial 1-800-Bite-Mee - No seriously, check your personal vals, bro. You're welcome to take and massage the data for yourself. If you message politely I'll even get you my excel file.
If I recall correctly, the 6th round pick we received from the Jags for Marcell Dareus COULD turn into a 5th round pick IF the following situations transpire: -Dareus plays the entirety of the 2017 season. -The Jags make the playoffs. Anybody have the details on this? Because it looks like both are happening. Not a huge deal, but a 5th could be a Milano or a Peterman. Just sayin'.
I originally put this in another thread, then, because I am a special snowflake I erased the post and decided my 5 minutes of effort was worthy of it's own thread. This team will be devoid of talent for a while. All those picks we have now are going to get packaged to try and get the 2nd pick of the draft. As a result, if we land 3 starters in next year's draft I would be shocked. We have a tremendous need of at least 10 new players just to field a non-trash roster. Be prepared to start next season looking at the roster and saying "who is that starter?" Positions that will have to be addressed this offseason are in red. Offense - we have FIVE positions of extreme need with one decent player likely being replaced by someone on the roster. QB -Tyrod - GONE RB - Shady - Over 30 and has no backup WR - Kelvin Benjamin - 1 more year on contract WR - Jordan Matthews - Injured and would need to be re-signed or replaced WR - Zay Jones - Here for the foreseeable future TE - Charles Clay - perennially injured. Back ups are not great. Needs to be replaced T - Cordy Glenn - Can't find the field because of injury - Big cap number - Might be supplanted by Dawkins G - Richie Incognito - 34 yrs old C - Eric Wood - 31 - signed an extension this offseason G - Vlad the Turnstile - Please get him off my team. Miller is equally bad. T - Jordan Mills - See Vlad above Defense - Ideally we would replace the whole D-Line. Realistically - we're stuck with at least 2 of them. That leaves us with FIVE immediate needs on D. DE - Shaq Lawson - He's not going anywhere next year DT - Adolphus Washington - Should be a rotational player, but will start here next year. DT - Kyle Williams - Will retire DE - Jerry Hughes - Poor production, can't survive being the only pass rushing threat. Should be moved, but will stay because who else do we have- unless we manage to trade him. OLB - Lorenzo Alexander - Nice guy, shouldn't be starting MLB - Preston Brown - Nope OLB - Ramon Humber - Average, needs to be replaced. Matt Milano should be depth, not a starter CB - Tre White - So far this is the first player on the team I'm happy about CB - EJ Gaines/Shareece Wright - Gaines can't stay healthy and Wright is not amazing S - Jordan Poyer - Starter S - Micah Hyde - Starter