dave mcbride
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Posts posted by dave mcbride
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9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
That isn't the question. The question is, has San Fran hit their ceiling with Purdy? Given how ridiculously talented that supporting cast was they should have had an all time dominant playoff offense. Instead they fell short in critical moments and probably shouldn't have even made it past Detroit to be honest. So now you're going to give Purdy all of his supporting cast's money and hope you somehow exceed last year's performance? I don't know what the answer is but he definitely isn't it IMO.
But he played lights out in the second half vs Detroit and won the game for them. Honestly, if SF stops a fourth and 2-3 on their own side of the field in OT, he’s the SB hero. He’s better than you give him credit for.
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32 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:
Recently read an article youth and high school football participation down ~7% year over year for the last 6 years.If this article is to be trusted, high school football participation had a big increase last year (although since it's post-pandemic the numbers are going to be skewed): https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/. I think participation in most team sports has declined. A lot of it is a function of kids only playing sport as opposed to multiple ones, like in the past.
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23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
They didn't dump Diggs because of the contract. They dumped him IN SPITE of the contract. His attitude and declining play were the top 2 factors.
I don't think they want another big contract at ANY position. But I suspect that's a fluid situation depending on the player.
I don't think guys like Aiyuk and Higgins would be appealing enough to pay $30M aav. They have never been the primary option for the good iterations of their current teams but will command contracts that might look like 80%-90% of Justin Jefferson value.
It appears that despite the numbers being thrown around, no WR is getting close to $30 million per, at least yet. From Florio, who is good on this sort of issue (althoug certainly not every type of issue): https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/top-receiver-deals-definitely-arent-what-they-seem-to-be.
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20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
All of the smoke signals we've seen are pointing this way, to be fair.
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Just now, DrDawkinstein said:
Oh, its absolutely easier said than done. But teams might have different priorities. Maybe a new regime just came in and they want to bring in a bunch of "their" guys. Or may even need to make additional picks just to fill out the roster. Not necessarily because there is going to be so much talent left in those rounds.
Exactly. Maybe Harbaugh has views on a bunch of big ten players that are different from the league consensus, for instance.
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1 hour ago, mannc said:
This is utter nonsense. Draftniks say this kind of crap every year…they absolutely love to s**t on every draft class. It’s just like the people who have “only fifteen players with first-round grades” year after year, which just means their “scale” is broken…
I get your point, sort of, but Mueller is not what I'd call a draftnik. He worked as an NFL personnel person / exec for 35 years, from Seattle (16 years) to NO to Miami to the Chargers.
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Some interesting quotes from anonymous GMs in here: https://wapo.st/3TXKgyG (I made this a gift article and it should be accessible to all).
'Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel (49ers)
“One of them won’t be back there,” the GM said. The exec said: “Personally, I’d be shocked if they don’t move one. When you study the model of how they roster build and structure their contracts, and with the quarterback being up in a year, I don’t think they will pay them both. … And if Deebo was the guy to go, I think he’d already be gone.” Another GM opined that he believes Aiyuk would have already secured his new contract if it was going to come from San Francisco. “I think Aiyuk is the one to watch,” that GM, also sniffing around on wide receivers, said. Another exec said: “I don’t think they’re going to get everything they’ll want for him [Aiyuk] because of what you’re going to have to pay him. But they have to listen.”'
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I thought this comment was interesting. The Bills have five picks before 150 and five after that threshold.
”After several classes overflowing with talented prospects (mainly due to the extra year of eligibility granted because of the pandemic), with as many as 350 names filling NFL teams’ draft boards, teams could struggle to get 150 names on their boards this year. This is dangerous for two reasons: The top players will disappear quickly, and teams will have to guard against the risk of overdrafting players in the later rounds. It might be a good opportunity for some teams to trade picks, maybe to move up into the first four rounds, or for a veteran player who brings more certainty. For that reason, there will be a lot of trade talk over the next couple of weeks.”
https://theathletic.com/5412463/2024/04/15/nfl-draft-randy-mueller-top-10/
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Trade down again!
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My hope (not based on any evidence) is that he's the next Eric Moulds. Moulds sucked his first two seasons because he was lost out there but blossomed to one of the best receivers in the league in his third season. Moulds was a physical specimen, and so is Elam.
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9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him. Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore. And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.
But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.
Still, nice work
Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs now have a higher premium than they did in 2010.
5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR.He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands.
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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:
This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him. Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore. And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.
But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.
Still, nice work
Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added.
Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent. -
17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Not that many, go look for yourself.
And again, I am also talking teams who are good teams making a move to go get a Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs who are top tier WR1 and after all they spent to get them and pay them got ZERO Super Bowls. Or a team spending big to trade up and get a Julio Jones. So not, its not a correlation of just bad teams, I am specifically stating teams that have gone and spent big thinking a WR gets them over the hump to ultimately win nothing of importance.
I am happy to be wrong about this, so if you can find even one example of a team that won a Super Bowl after any of the following scenarios, I will glady adjust my 0% success rate and 100% fail rate statements:
- Acquired for top dollar in Free Agency
- Acquired via trade for premium draft capital (like Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc)
- Acquired through an expensive trade up trade in a draft (like a Julio, Watkins, etc)
Find me any example that got a team over the hump to put hardware in their case for going all in on a WR and I will change my tune. Don't even need multiple examples, just asking for one that maybe I missed, which is possible.
Here's one that sort of fits: the Ravens gave up a pretty fair amount to AZ for Anquan Boldin (3rd and 4th round picks) and promptly handed him a big-money extension. He was absolutely money for them in 2012, especially in the postseason that year: 22 receptions for 380 yards and 4 TDs (and 104 yards plus a TD in the Super Bowl). He should be in the HOF, in my opinion -- his lifetime stats are crazy good.
The Eagles gave Alshon Jeffrey a one-year $14 million contract after he came off the franchise tag in Chicago, and he was one of the highest paid receivers in the league in 2017. He signed a 4-year extension for $52 million before that season ended too (in early December 2017). He had a pretty big postseason that year and scored a TD in the SB.
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12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Perhaps, but this was a lot more brazen than what Lynch did. Lynch didn't even own up to driving he car to my knowledge and there was no video. It was a glancing blow and not a lot of other proof other than the accounts of some people who were also presumably out boozing. This was an outright wreck of cars in broad daylight that he admitted to causing with supporting video of it and him fleeing the scene and phone record of him calling the rental car company to tell them he wrecked the car as he was walking away. They know for a fact where he was at before the accident (bar) and he admitted driving. Up to 8 felony counts. There is a lot more there for the legal system to work with than the Lynch case.
I hear you, but with these vehicle cases, unless there's a corpse and a bottle of Hennessy involved, pro athletes seem to almost always evade the jailhouse. Also, it's Texas, and he's a local guy who was a star for SMU. Call me cynical, but ...
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Not saying this will happen, but this would be an interesting wild card! https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/could-a-falcons-vikings-tampering-settlement-be-announced-just-before-round-one-of-the-draft
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5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Beane has always gone physical traits in the 1st round. I'm probably projecting my own desires here but I think his plan might be to trade up in the 2nd (using the 2025 2nd we received in the Diggs trade) to take one of those route technician types, which would explain why he's meeting with all of them. I would bet 1st round will be Legette, Coleman, or Worthy. Allen has never had a physical stud on the field with him. I think Beane will try to correct that.
I guess I would trade back (out of the first) at this point. Regarding trading that 2025 second rounder, I'm looking at this - https://walterfootball.com/draft2025charlie.php - and noticing a lot of pass rushing talent going early. I could see the Bills being all in on that position come 2025 and will want the draft capital to move up. They'll need to replace Von Miller.
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1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Hopefully the direction he's headed in is incarceration. What he did warrants it. So whether he is a WR1 in the future or not, who knows, lot's of WR's have outstanding starts and flame out. But yes, he filled that WR1 role more than adequately for KC as a rookie. People act like they had no receivers the past 2 seasons but they had at least 2 pass catchers in the top 32 in production.......something only a handful of other teams could say(obviously)..........and in each case they were extremely high efficiency players and made a big impact for them in the playoffs.
I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt he goes to jail. Seems like a Marshawn Lynch sort of thing (although I realize there are differences in the cases), and nothing happened to him after his vehicular mishap except getting traded and subsequently becoming an NFL legend.
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5 minutes ago, PonyBoy said:
Screw Tom Brady.....Oh wait. Ya know that guy is alright in my book 😄
Brady came across as very likable in The Dynasty, I gotta say.
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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Rice playing like a WR1 for KC was just fact.......there isn't anything subjective about it.........he followed the typical path of young star receivers by getting much better as the season went on and despite a more typical rookie slow start he literally finished 28th in receiving yards amongst NFL WR and then played well in the playoffs continuing to catch nearly 80% of his targets and averaging more yards per game than he did over the course of the regular season.
Whether you approach it from how he was trending or just sheer production over high volume over the course of a full season, it's the same conclusion. Not elite, but a WR1 for that team and greater production than a number of teams got from any of their actual WR's.
That he played with Patrick Mahomes doesn't change what he was..........anymore than Stefon Diggs not being an All Pro in Minnesota changes that he was one in Buffalo.
Yep. Over his final six games of the regular season, Rice had 43 catches on 56 targets for 518 yards and 3 TDs. That's 9.25 yards per target and a 77 percent catch rate. It also extrapolates to 121 catches for 1,467 yards and 9 TDs over a 17 game season.
In four playoff games, he had 26 catches on 33 targets and 262 yards plus 1 TD.
Point is, young players do actually get better and more acclimated over the course of a season.
2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:Yeah, he was a bad draft pick. And done for the wrong reasons, a deep reach to address a specific need at a non-premium position. 6'3" 310 wasn't even a good size for a true 3-4 NT. If you are using that high of a pick on a NT-only he better be a monster like Ted Washington.
Looking at the pictures of the more recent players on this list, you definitely begin to see evidence of Parcell's "planet theory" for the NT position. Most of the more recent guys are absolute monsters, size-wise: https://nflfootballjournal.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-best-nose-tackles-in-nfl-history.html.
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18 hours ago, Rigotz said:
I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32?If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap.
Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed.Calvin Ridley is elite, as evidenced by his huge contract this offseason. He also made Keir Elam look absolutely terrible last season.
Great post, though!
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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
It seems inevitable but maybe Arizona is just throwing that out to create artificial demand? The Vikings are desperate. Maybe they can use that desperation to do what you suggested with the Giants? Maybe they can get them to panic, slide up 2 spots & Cards still get the WR?
I just can’t wrap my head around being desperate for McCarthy 😂. He doesn’t have the measurables. His ball placement is spotty. He’s not quick through progressions. His arm is average. He isn’t a great athlete. We like that he won? Lol, so we are trading 3 firsts for a guy with average tools and average numbers because he won a lot with elite talent around him? Brock Purdy SyndromeBrock Purdy has flat out proven that he is a good NFL qb. The better comp for your argument is Mac Jones.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Thanks. It would be interesting to see the same exercise for Superbowl losers. You have already mentioned Jones and Chase, but the Eagles two years ago were one controversial (although correct) DPI away and AJ Brown was acquired by trading away a first round pick and they had a top 10 pick (who they traded up a couple of spots for) on the team too. Larry Fitz with the Kurt Warner Cardinals as well.... I'm not saying there is a ton but there are 3/4 Superbowls that went right down to the wire that totally flip that narrative. So while I am not saying it is worth nothing, it definitely isn't total proof of the hypothesis.
I completely agree.
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51 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I transparently explained the methodology I used in my OP post: pro-football-reference wAV. It's not perfect, but it's reasonably objective.
I understand your viewpoint, but by objective measurables they may be closer than you believe at this point. St Brown has been available for a few more games, which is factored in; he has more targets, more receptions, a higher catch % (73 vs 66), more 1D, the same # of all-pro selections. Chase has 8 more TDs, 129 more receiving yards, higher Y/R, and more playoff games (6 vs 3)
wAV is 35 for St Brown, 33 for Chase.
So yeah, you may disagree, but it certainly seems debateable. All honesty, I think there's a bit of "halo effect" because Chase had an All-World rookie year and then two very good seasons, while St Brown had a Rashee Rice-like rookie year, a very good second year, and an All-World 3rd season.
I get this, but it’s more of “watch the actual games” thing for me. Chase is uncoverable and outside of Tyreek Hill the most dangerous receiver in the league. He draws the best cover people and still shreds teams. And his stats weee depressed this year by having an inferior QB throwing to him for most of the season, whether it was an injured Burrow or a backup. I feel extremely confident in saying that there is not one GM, head coach, or OC in the league who would choose St. Brown over Chase.
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another write-up of the leading prospects, this time from The Ringer:
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Randy Mueller - maybe only ~150 draftable players this year
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by dave mcbride
I dunno … Randy Mueller knows far more than you or I do. He literally has 35 years of NFL experience in draft rooms. You and I are just message board dorks whose knowledge is all second or third hand.