Beck Water
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Posts posted by Beck Water
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39 minutes ago, mrags said:
I agree on that. But I still think Odunze and Nabors will be clearly better than most of this class. I’m not sold on MHJ actually. And of course a lot has to do with where guys get drafted, their situations, their teams, their QBs, their coaches. Someone will do a lot better in Buffalo than they would on Vegas for example imo.
Personally, I can't even pretend to have any kind of meaningful opinion - I just don't watch that much college football.
But you're absolutely right that a lot goes into whether or not a guy succeeds beyond his innate talent.
In addition to the factors you mention, there's also the intangibles of, how does this kid react to becoming an overnight millionaire?
It doesn't help that to my observation with HS athletes, really talented athletes tend to get special treatment and the scope of it only gets bigger as they move up into college etc.
I think that's one reason why the draft, even the top of the first round where the physical talent is undoubtedly elite, tends to be such a crap shoot. You can watch their film and measure their vertical leap, but not their heart or how hard they continue to work once paid.
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12 hours ago, Process said:
Did the details for Collins contract ever get released? I know it was up to $6M, which is certainly not backup money.
Yeah, it must be $6M only with unpublicized incentives. Salary is $1.21M, $1.5M cap hit, but fully guaranteed. It's basically backup money.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/lael-collins-17403/ -
Our ESPN reporter Alaina Getzenbirg piece on Josh's presser
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39970133/bills-josh-allen-thanks-departed-stefon-diggs-hard-work
2 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:I also thought it was telling that when asked if he’d spoken to Stef since the move, he discussed a one text/one response exchange, which, even though he described it as cordial, one can’t help but think if they were still tight it would’ve been at least an actual phone call(s) 🤷🏼♂️.
I dunno. My kid, who is a bit younger than Josh and Stef, seems to very rarely make actual phone calls and prefer to do everything by text or DM
So I wouldn't read too much into "text vs phone call", but I think it's been pretty clear for some time, for other reasons, that they haven't been tight.
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3 hours ago, mrags said:
Can we actually try and get some elite talent for once? Is it really hard to realize we don’t have very good to great players on this team. We’ve got a team of average to good guys. It’s just not enough to move the needle. We need great guys to beat teams like the Chiefs.
we have Allen. And without him we’d be a 5-6 win team every year. Let’s get some actual players to help him for once.
I agree with you completely on the need for elite talent.
Where the debate seems to lie is with what is the best strategy to acquire same?As I pointed out to @transplantbillsfan above, the "hit rate" from taking one of the top-3 WR in the 1st round, and taking 1 of the top-2 WR in the 2nd round, are practically identical - 8/14 vs 6/10, 57% vs 60%. And some of those 2nd round players are arguably elite WR talent - AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr.
If I were guessing which way the frog will jump, my guess is that Beane will trade up slightly and draft a WR in the 1st.
But I don't think it would be closing the door on the potential for elite talent to trade back slightly and get a guy at the top of the 2nd, either.
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3 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
No argument here, about needing more weapons on offense (regarding your point on prior years). All in agreement there.
I just don't think any of the guys you listed are capable, and also think this is typical "Beaneisms" this time of year.
Kincaid/Shakir are the only young ascending players. Question is still out about their ceiling/development this season.
Beane would be smart to take 2 WRs in one of the deepest classes in quite a while.
I certainly agree with you on that last point, and about Kincaid/Shakir as ascending players. But as I said previously, 2 receivers isn't enough. We need at least 4 (IMO).
I can't disagree on evidence as to any of the guys on that list being capable, but Beane did make the analogy to Terrel Bernard and Boy Howdy, this time last year if anyone asked whether any of Terrel Bernard, Baylon Spector, or Tyrell Dodson were capable of holding down starting linebacker spots (much less Dodson and Bernard starting together), I would have said "Hell to the NO!". Wouldn't you?
And sure, he may have been using typical pre-draft GMspeak to which people who count (other front offices) doubtless pay no attention so, why? -
7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3. It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.
1st Round Wide Receivers
2023
1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1 LAC Quentin Johnston
1 BAL Zay Flowers
1 MIN Jordan Addison
2022
1 ATL Drake London
1 NYJ Garrett Wilson
1 NOR Chris Olave
1 DET Jameson Williams
1 WAS Jahan Dotson
1 TEN Treylon Burks
2021
1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase
1 MIA Jaylen Waddle
1 PHI DeVonta Smith
1 NYG Kadarius Toney
1 BAL Rashod Bateman
2020
1 LVR Henry Ruggs III
1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR
1 DAL CeeDee Lamb
1 PHI Jalen Reagor
1 MIN Justin Jefferson
1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk
2019
1 BAL Marquise Brown
1 NWE N'Keal Harry
2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers
2023
2 CAR Jonathan Mingo
2 GB Jayden Reed
2 KC Rashee Rice
2 DEN Marvin Mims
3 HOU Nathaniel Dell
3 NYG Jalin Hyatt
3 CLE Cedric Tillman
3 IND Josh Downs
3 ARI Michael Wilson
3 LVR Tre Tucker
2022
2 GNB Christian Watson
2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson
2 HOU John Metchie
2 NWE Tyquan Thornton
2 PIT George Pickens
2 IND Alec Pierce
2 KAN Skyy Moore
3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.
3 DAL Jalen Tolbert
3 CLE David Bell
3 SFO Danny Gray
2021
2 NYJ Elijah Moore
2 ARI Rondale Moore
2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge
2 LAR Tutu Atwell
2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.
3 LAC Josh Palmer
3 WAS Dyami Brown
3 GNB Amari Rodgers
3 HOU Nico Collins
3 CLE Anthony Schwartz
2020
2 CIN Tee Higgins
2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.
2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.
2 DEN KJ Hamler
2 PIT Chase Claypool
2 LAR Van Jefferson
2 NYJ Denzel Mims
3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.
3 LVR Bryan Edwards
3 BAL Devin Duvernay
2019
2 SFO Deebo Samuel
2 TEN A.J. Brown
2 KAN Mecole Hardman
2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside
2 IND Parris Campbell
2 ARI Andy Isabella
2 SEA D.K. Metcalf
3 PIT Diontae Johnson
3 SFO Jalen Hurd
3 WAS Terry McLaurin
3 BAL Miles Boykin
Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.
There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft. The hit rate there is 60%. If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%. If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...
think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft??? Rome Odunze, anyone????
Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys. 27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.
Great that you put so much work into this, but how are you getting to 60% hit rate over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WR in the 1st round of the draft? That's 14 WR in the last 5 years (2019 saw only 2). By your assessment, that's 8 hits. 8/14 = 57%. Now that's better than a coin flip, but not too much.
Now let's look at what happens if you just draft one of the first 2 WR in the 2nd round of the draft? That's 10 WR over the last 5 years. By your assessment, that's 6 hits, so 6/10 = 60%. That's actually BETTER than what you would get if you just drafted one of the first 3 WR in the first round!!!!! So according to your data - we would be just as good or better if we TRADE BACK! AJ Brown is the best WR in the 2019 draft, with Deebo Samuel a close 2nd.
Sorry, but once you start what-if'ing, like "what if Ruggs didn't go to prison?" respectfully, we're entering the realm of fancy. What if Jerry Jeudy had a decent QB throwing to him instead of Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and The Ghost of Russell Wilson?
3 hours ago, mrags said:Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good.
What if Shenault has better QB than Mayfield, Darnold, and Bryce Young?
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5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
Why should I waste any more of my time? For years I've given you nothing but well researched and well thought out replies that result in little more than you throwing "nuh-uh" into ChatGPT and posting the responses. You come into threads with your mind firmly locked into place and no amount of reason or evidence could ever sway you to move from it and you certainly won't meet me anywhere near halfway when it comes to the effort you put into the conversation. There's no value in trying to debate a person like that. It's intellectual dishonesty.
This is really rich.
You stated to someone else [edit: @ToGoGo] "You can try to attack my character, but that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments. The difference between me and people like you is that I back up my arguments. Do you even watch the Bills? Josh peaked in 2020 if you've been watching the games, and the stats back it up."
Do you even listen to yourself? You are asked to explain what, in particular, of the pro-football-reference Josh Allen stats you posted show he peaked in 2020 and hasn't developed since then? And you respond by what....attacking my character!!!!
We will all note that you have categorically refused to explain exactly what it is about the pro-football-reference stats you posted that shows Allen peaked in 2020 and has not developed or improved since then. This puts your statements in the realm of dogma.
It's also pretty clear that when someone resorts to the ad-hominem (attacking me, calling me intellectually dishonest) instead of actually providing information, they aren't actually depending on stats and facts to back up their argument - to quote you "that just makes it clear you've run out of arguments".
I'm not going to defend my posting style or responses, I think the amount of actual research I put into posts here and my willingness to both acknowledge correction AND other people's valid counter points is well established and speak for themselves.
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13 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
Maybe …Probably even …
But out of interest… what were you thinking about Bernard this time last year ?
I would still be taking 2 WR early or draft one trade for one …
Me, I'll go.
I was thinking he looked lost in space and slow in the game he played subbing for Milano his rookie season, and I had no expectation that we would see the level of play from him we saw.
Contrary points, Bernard had a scouting report that included this:
QuoteStrengths
Scouts rave about his leadership and character.
Never-quit attitude despite adversity.
Film junkie who rang up 100-plus tackles in 2019 and 2021.
Rapid read and response against play-action.
On a continuous quest to go get the football.
Loose and fluid in pursuit and change of direction.
Bends and flattens off the corner as a blitzer.
Speed to cover man targets underneath.
He also was game active for all 16 games and played regular snaps on ST
I did a bit of a deep dive because I wanted to know if there were hints of anything similar in any of the PS WR or last year's rookies.
I personally didn't see it in the stuff I dug up, but maybe I wasn't looking at it right. I guess the most promising to me based on write-ups would be Bryan Thompson.
20 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:Beanes done this discussion almost every offseason leading to draft, be it at DE or CB.
I do think he's counting on Kincaid to take his game to the next level. And for Shakir to become more consistent, especially at beating man coverage and zone reads.
But at the end of day, Beane is going to use the draft to fill 2 WR spots (likely a 1st and 4th rounder, IMO). Focus being on separation/down field threat/versatility.
It's certainly within the realm of possibility for both Kincaid and Shakir to elevate their games (not sure we'll see Shakir beating man coverage, esp. from the outside).
But when we had a higher level of WR talent in '20 and '21, we had more than 2 guys.
When we only had 2 guys (Brown and Beasley) in '19, it wasn't enough.
Pretty much just Diggs and Davis in 2022, Ditto.
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1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:
He was most likely talking about Kincaid and Shakir. In the end, Buffalo may have three or four guys shoulder the load collectively instead of just one.
Buffalo may add a Pearsall or a Polk or a Worthy or Franklin. We may have a deep unit overall but no Batman, just 3-4 Robins working together to get the job done.
I guess that works if the 4 Robins have the collective moxie of 2 Batmans, but as I recall the TV series and movies that didn't seem to be the case.
I come back to Emmanuel Acho's comments about teams having at least 3 "freakazoids" and asking who, besides Allen, are gonna be the Bills "freakazoids" on offense? Because we can win games without, and even a playoff game without, but when it comes to the best teams contending for championships, I think we need freaks.
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37 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:
I wrote in another thread that what the Bills really need is excellence to cover all parts of the field. Speed and outside threats are sorely lacking right now and hence we dont have a full WR room by any means. If (when) the Bills add 2 WRs to the roster who can own/excel in specific parts of the skills while also doing other things, then we will have a complete room. Samuel is one example where he has played mostly in the slot but can play outside also. We need the two additions to be the opposite.
So, if you use the pure words, we dont really need a single #1 WR if the above criteria can be filled. I want oppposing Defenses to fear our entire receiving corps as a whole and not one specific threat. Then we will truly have a unpredictable and dominating offense. This portfolio of skillsets will complement Allen's ability to reach any part of the field.
This is an interesting point.
I suppose one of the concerns I have is 2019, when Beane added Beasley and Brown and told us all we'd have #1 by committee. That worked well enough to get us to 10-6 and a first round playoff exit, but it really wasn't enough, and adding Dawson Knox as a 3rd round TE pick described as "outstanding combination of measurables and traits, but he's much more moldable clay than game-ready prospect at this point" didn't add enough that year. I don't fault Beane for drafting DL, but there were receivers available within reach for us in the 2nd round who have proven to be very very good players, AJ Brown and DK Metcalf still on the board for example.
So here we are going into a draft described as amazingly deep with WR talent, and Beane's words could translate to "First round DT it is, I'll draft a WR who has great potential late in the 2nd round or maybe in the 4th, see, we added someone!"
It's not that I think Beane speaks his whole truth (not right before the draft, definitely) or that a higher 1st round pick is automagically better than someone drafted near the bottom of the 1st or in the 2nd round - not necessarily true - but IMO Beane does have a pattern of prioritizing high draft resources (1st and 2nd round picks) on defense that was only broken last year with our 1st and 2nd round picks on O. I don't have any "skin" in the game of being "right" about how I interpret Beane, but I am concerned that in fact, he is saying what he means and meaning what he says.
I feel the team that developed Beane as a GM, Carolina, had a pattern to under-prioritize protecting Cam Newton and providing him with weapons, and Beane is continuing that pattern. If you look at Carolina's drafts under Rivera (by Gurney and then Gettlemen) I find it eerily reminiscent of what Beane has done here. When Rivera took over and Newton was drafted, the talented but ancient Steven Smith was the #1 WR, 32 yrs old; Greg Olsen was also on the roster. They drafted WR in the 5th and 4th round the first 3 years of Newton's career, finally using a #1 pick on Fat Kelvin in his 4th year (sort of like trading for Diggs in Allen's 3rd season). That's pretty much it until 2017, Newton's 7th season, when they drafted Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. But by then, Newton was pretty bashed up and on the downhill slide.Seriously, if you look at Carolina's drafts from 2011 to 2017, it's headshaking.
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1 hour ago, Tipster19 said:
I didn’t intend to throw any shade on McConkey, I misspoke there. I was really hoping and looking forward for Beane to find a way to draft Brian Thomas Jr but at this point I’m getting the feeling that is probably just a pipe dream. I wouldn’t be unhappy if Beane does end up just taking McConkey.
I don't think we have any clue as to what Beane will do, honestly.
He left the strong impression that he's not enthused about giving up what he'd have to to move into the top 10, but he didn't rule it out, either.
And he may not have to - in 2020, for example, when people were predicting IIRC that receivers would go high and 2 were projected to go in the top 10 by several boards, the 6 who were drafted in the 1st round were scattered from pick 12 to pick 25. The best 2 were arguably the 3rd and 5th drafted.-
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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Downvoted but nothing personal. He's just THAT washed. He's so washed the last time I saw him on TV he was talking about his game in the past tense. Bones on the beach washed.
What do you know about DJ Chark? Of the FA still available, he and Hunter Renfrew interest me the most, but from what others have told me Renfrew is most productive as a slot (so I think he duplicates Samuel and Shakir).
Chark:
-had 1000+ yd season with Minshew and Foles throwing to him, 700 yds when it was Minshew and Glennon
-fell off the map under Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell
-has had 2 ok-ish 30 catch, 500 yd seasons since with DET and CAR
-last 2 seasons average 17 and 15 Y/R, but he doesn't seem to be a deep guy - it's 12 YBC and 4 YAC, so maybe more of an intermediate/short guy?
I really haven't watched the guy play, interest just based on the fact that he had shown a couple good seasons and a couple OK seasons, and he's not an antique (27),
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16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I'm not going to go back through the press conference and find, but I think he said it very clearly.
It was in the discussion about whether he needed to get a Diggs again, and yes, he said he didn't need to. He said, essentially, what I said a couple weeks ago - that the Bills are comfortable playing with a lot of good receivers without a stud. But as he was saying that, he also said something like, "of course, it's always nice to have one of those guys."
Understood on "not going to go back through", but if you have any clue about how far in it was, I'd appreciate it.
I heard a lot of "don't need a true #1" "#1 by committee" prior to the 2019 season. Now admittedly, we upgraded our WR room with John Brown and Cole Beasley, though relative to Fat Kelvin, Bloody Zay Jones, Bob Foster, Andre Holmes, and Deonte Thompson, that was a pretty low bar to achieve. The bottom line, though, was that when it came to the playoffs where teams had had all season to watch film on us, it simply wasn't enough and Josh Allen was throwing passes at critical junctures to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco.
I don't want to go back there. Even if (as some suggest) Khalil Shakir takes a big step, Dalton Kincaid continues to develop, and Curtis Samuel has something akin to his previous career best year, I don't think it's enough, and I'm concerned Beane does or will "settle" for it.
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22 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
what’s the one thing he can least afford to say today?Honestly would that worst thing be: “I have a glaring hole at WR1 and need to trade up to fill it”
Of course. That's why I was surprised that @Shaw66 felt he heard him say that he wanted a #1. I thought Beane's whole point in this presser was to act like "What? WR? Nah, we're good...hey, maybe we got a surprise buried in the depth of the roster, like Terrel Bernard last year...Of course we'd like to add one sometime, but No Rush!
14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:It's very simple..........Beane says whatever fits his agenda. And that's fine. "Don't expect any big moves" can just as easily mean $120M contract to Von Miller is coming with Beane. That was an example of a bald-faced Big Baller Beane lie. It was a move that had been in the making since the trade deadline the previous season. But if you think that was a spur of the moment decision then it's not surprising that you get puzzled so easily. That's what he's counting on from Bills fans. He sets bars that he can realistically, if not EASILY, surpass and that makes he and the Pegula's look good and prevents the unwashed from keeping receipts on them. That's something the Pegula's gotta' love about him with all the heat they get for their greater personal involvement with the Sabres.
OK, thanks for your explanation.
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9 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
I mean to me it sounds like he's talking about Khalil Shakir. I know thats not the greatest example but I think they are expecting huge things out of him. My next best guess would be Justin Shorter since Shorter didn't play at all last year much like Bernard in his rookie season and then broke out year 2.
The difference between Bernard and Shorter to me, is that Bernard was practicing with the team and was active for 16 games in 2022 - he mostly played ST, but did get one start and took snaps in 4 other games.
Shorter, on IR, couldn't even practice with the team.
I think Shakir has shown he's capable of playing in the NFL, but if Beane is counting on him to "elevate" and play a much much larger role -
We Shall See, I guess.
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1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:
We have the strongest WR draft class in years, we NEED WRs, we have a great QB at his peak, and Diggs is gone and we also said we needed a blazer before he left. If we come out of this draft without taking one of the top guys or two it will be colossal failure. You win with offense in this league and we need to outscore the other top QBs in the AFC. Defense just needs to be adequate and not a complete sieve.
Here, I'd like to redirect you to some of the work I and others have done looking at where in the draft the top guys fell.
If you mean, we better draft a couple WR in this deep WR-talent draft AND EARLIER THAN THE 4th ROUND DAMMIT BEANE! I completely agree.
If you mean it will be a failure if we come out of the draft without moving up in the 1st round to draft one of the guys being talked about as the top 3, Meh.
Sometimes the guys touted as the top prospects come out the best, sometimes they don't.
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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Hey now..........don't suggest that Beane is disingenuous..........everyone know's he's pretty straight forward about everything.
It's always hilarious how selective people are when characterizing Beane's honesty.
I don't want an honest GM. His personnel evaluations haven't always been great but he's always been great at puppeteering Bills fans. It's hard to fake-it till you make-it as a GM if you can't use the slight of tongue like Beane.
I'm a bit puzzled why you're replying to me here.
In general, my phrase for Beane is that I think he tells the truth, but not the whole truth and nothing but the truth. I've said that in other posts.
I have no idea what "puppeteering Bills fans" means or why you think it's an important trait for a GM - I woulda thought building a good enough roster to sustain a high W-L record and get into the playoffs would be more his jam, but whatever.
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Beane, in his sincere attempt to persuade us to believe he doesn't view the lack of a Diggs-size talent on the roster as a gaping hole that he intends to address in the draft, alluded to guys on the roster. He made an analogy to Terrell Bernard, who played very little his rookie season then "elevated" in a Big Way last season. "Tremaine Who?"
Thought it might be a good time to profile just who is lurking in the depths of the roster.In order of seniority:
1) Andy Isabella, 2019 2nd round pick of the Cards (62 overall). Small fast guy - 5'8 3/4", 29 3/4" arms, 4.31 40-time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Isabella"Isabella entered the 2021 season sixth on the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart, and only had one catch the entire season and was inactive for half the season."
The Cards brought him through training camp and onto the active roster, but waived him in early Oct 2022. Since then he's been on the Ravens and Bills practice squad
Draft profile: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/andy-isabella/32004953-4156-2722-bf26-62181351a224
He was a successful RB and State-level winning track star in HS. "Isabella has the feet and fakes to uncover in a hallway closet, and the former high school sprint champion proved to Georgia that his ability to win deep should not be underestimated. Isabella could become a menace on option routes with the ability to add vertical routes from the slot, but he must improve his pass-catching consistency and smoothness into his breaks in order to transition all that speed to the NFL."
He actually played 34% of the ST snaps for Buffalo last season, but it wasn't as a returner (1 KR to add to 8 previous KR). He had not previously played much ST.
Chance of elevating as a receiver? I give this "low" - see I think @Kirby Jackson comments about the odds of success for short receivers with short arms. Never Say Never but.... On the other hand, if he's learned to live with a screw loose, perhaps he could continue to contribute on ST.
2) KJ Hamler, 2020 2nd round pick of the Broncos (46 overall). Another small fast guy - 5'8 5/8", 30 3/4" arms, didn't run at combine, said to have 4.27s 40-time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._J._Hamler
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/k.j.-hamler/32004841-4d38-6186-eea5-110d32b9644c
This guy's NFL career to date has been the living demonstration of the lyrics "if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all". He had a hammy injury at the combine. He had 30 catches for 381 yds and 3 TD as a rookie, but finished the season on IR with a hammy.
In his 2nd year, he had a great training camp and went on IR with a torn ACL Week 3.
In his 3rd year, he played in 7 games but just as he might have been coming up to speed off the ACL, he suffered another hammy and was IR'd again
In his 4th year, he tore his pec training on his own in the off-season then developed pericarditis in July 2023. Denver had enough and waived him with Non Football Injury.
He spent 2023 on the Colts practice squad, but was not signed to a futures contract after the season.
Chance of elevating as a receiver? Well, he showed flashes here and there of being able to play in the NFL, but repeated hammies and an ACL make this unlikely unless Beane has directed the equipment staff to cover his locker stall with 4-leaf clovers, hired him a personal leprechaun, and directed one of the training staff to follow him around providing hamstring massage.
3) Justin Shorter, Bills 2023 5th round pick (150 overall). Big guy - 6'4", 229 lb, 33 3/4" arms, 10" hands. 4.55 40-time.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d
Spent last season on IR.
He was the top receiver prospect in the country in 2018, but somehow never delivered on that promise at the college level. Was benched for dropping passes at Penn State. Made good at Florida, but was limited his Sr year due to hammy injuries. Spent his rookie year with the Bills on IR due to (wait for it) hammy injury.
His scouting profile, not that Zierlein is infallible, is not encouraging to me; I translate it as "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane". It praises his physicality and toughness and ability to track the ball and high-point a catch, but also notes below-average foot quickness, slow and linear release that make it hard for him to beat press coverage, and loss of momentum in turns. Reading between the lines, I kind of get the sense of a guy who might have let his HS success go to his head a bit?
Being on IR meant he could not practice with the team, except for a 3 week "designated for return" interval which saw him returned to IR.4) Tyrell Shavers, 2023 UDFA from San Diego State after transferring from Alabama to Mississippi to SD State. Big guy - 6'4", 211 lb, 32 3/8" arms, said to run 4.55 40
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/san-diego-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports-include-jesse-matthews-alama-uluave-and-tyrell-shavers/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyrell_ShaversHe's a bit of a dark horse to me. He apparently spent 3 seasons at Alabama buried on the depth chart, transferred to Mississippi State, saw some playing time and caught 9 passes for 104 yds, then transferred again. Had 38 passes for 643 yards, and three touchdowns with SD State and was a ST ace.
Elevate? Of the preceding 3, I guess I see Shavers as the most likely - he hasn't been injury plagued. Because he was on PS not IR he could practice with the team all last season. The PFN draft report says "Shavers showed a lot of improvement in his game last season, yet he’s unpolished in most aspects of the receiver position. A lack of speed is a major concern" but also "Displays good route discipline, quickly gets out of breaks, and uses his frame to protect the ball. Works across the field to make himself an available target, possesses terrific eye/hand coordination, and comes away with the difficult catch. Tracks the pass in the air, gets vertical, and extends to make the reception away from his frame. Easily adjusts to the errant throw."
Kind of sounds like a guy who potentially could be coached up, if he's willing to put in the work. Playing speed and burst can be improved by the right training.
5) last dark horse: Bryan Thompson, UDFA from Utah and AZ State. 6'1", 195 lb, 32 5/8" arms, 4.54s 40.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/arizona-state-2023-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Thompson_(American_football)
Didn't do much in college, but the Bills brought him in and quietly kept him on the PS all last season. PFN had some good things to say about him pre-draft: "
QuoteStrengths: Former Utah wideout with an underrated game. Runs sharp routes, stays low exiting breaks, and positions himself to make the reception. Possesses eye/hand coordination, tracks the pass in the air, and gets vertical to make the reception.
Displays strong hands, snatches the fastball from the air, and easily adjusts to the pass to make the catch in stride. Shows focus and eye/hand coordination and makes plenty of difficult catches.
Weaknesses: Not quick releasing off the line of scrimmage. Lacks a deep burst. Marginally productive the past two years at Arizona State and has never caught a touchdown pass.
Overall: Thompson flashed ability over the past two seasons and comes with nice size, speed, and pass-catching ability. He must further develop his game, but Thompson has enough upside to warrant a spot on a practice squad.
OK Fellow Bills Fans, that's all I got. Since Beane made a reference to sometimes the guys on the roster can elevate, but they have to prove it (and referenced Terrell Bernard) I thought this might be of interest.
Anyone else got any tea to spill on these guys?
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
Dawg - My interpretation of what he said about his different from yours. I'm not predicting a move to get one of those guys, but I don't think he suggested he wouldn't do it.
As you say, he did say that when he made the deal for Diggs, he was looking for help for Allen, because Brown and Beasley couldn't carry the offense. And yes, he said that he doesn't have to make a move like that now, because Allen has progressed. But he also didn't say, and I don't think he implied, that he wouldn't acquire a receiver by trading a draft pick.
He also was clear that he'd like to have a true number 1 guy. He just said that the Bills no longer need the guy to support Allen in that way.
@Shaw66, where did he say something that was clear to you that he'd like to have a "true number 1 guy"?
He started off the presser saying that in Stefon Diggs, you're talking about a guy who for 4 years filled a #1 role. He went on to say that "we have not filled a number 1 role. We have a group of guys with different skill sets, would we like to add to it at some point, yes, but I'm not sitting here thinking we have a glaring hole" He then went on to say sometimes you have young guys on your roster that you believe can ascend, but they have to prove it, too.
A lack of #1 WR is a pretty glaring hole, IMO, if you believe you need one.But, I will admit that I have not made it through the entire interview, so I'd love to be pointed at ~where he said that, unless it was in a theoretical "yeah, we'd run to the podium for Ja'Maar Chase" kind of way?
I agree that Beane very deliberately left it open that he wouldn't exclude anything, but I do believe Beane suggested that he wouldn't do it - all the stuff about not wanting to give up next year's #1 pick, not expecting to trade the #2 pick from the Diggs trade etc etc.
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4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
I’agree with most of your takeaways, but I don’t believe Beane as much as you do. Like most GM’s at draft time he doesn’t reveal the teams true strategy. They don’t call it “lying season” for nothing!The way he downplayed the obvious need at WR, sounds almost identical to how he discussed the CB position before the 2022 draft.
Also I remember at last year’s press conference he said something about the are pool being talented but that they were probably not drafting a TE.
Plus, back in 2022 he said there would be no “big ticket” signings, right before signing the ultimate “big ticket” FA in Von Miller.
I do think he was being truthful about not wanting to trade away future first round picks and I think the Thomas trade scenario you posed is the most likely.I don't remember last year's press conference as being so definite "probably not drafting a TE".
But yeah, I agree with your overarching theme. I think Beane tells the truth (mostly), just not "the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".
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1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:
Really interesting article but lacks details about the therapy. Tay is a good man and I hope he finds a team this year if it’s not the Bills.
There's some more detail from Murray quoted here, though he doesn't name the target areas
https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/17/latavius-murray-free-agent-stem-cells/
Quote“You do the IV stem cells and then you get the injections within the joints or wherever you want to have the injections. Essentially the IV is supposed to still penetrate into the parts of your body that are sore; the IV does overall health. But then the localized injections are for the areas that you want to specifically treat.”
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13 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
Yeah I heard him say that …guess that’s fine for looking to find a partner to move up two spots in Round 1 for a fourth … if you are secretly in love with one of the Top 3, than I would have thought moving most of this years and next years quality draft assets to move up to the Top 10 might be a more serious consideration than beginning discussions 2-3 days beforehand…Keep in mind that Beane can be very specific about what he says - and while I think he tells the truth, it's not necessarily the whole truth.
He said "he hadn't called" any of the guys in the top-10. I'm sure that's the truth.
It may not be the whole truth. It doesn't rule out discussions at the Sr Bowl, Combine, or NFL Annual Meeting. I would bet Beane knows very well what would be wanted for one of the top 10 draft choices to move all the way back to 28, from such discussions, and he knows it's a price he isn't inclined to pay.
I think the more cogent point is that he mentioned stockpiling resources when he knew they were going to be trying to draft a QB - things like trading Cordy Glenn to move up from 21 to 12. The only thing Beane has done that could remotely be considered in that light, is trading Diggs, and it's not for much (2025 2nd)
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3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Take aways:
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
- He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28.
- When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them.
- Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. We did reportedly meet once with Thomas.
- He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below.
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I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting.
- Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that.
- But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary.
- He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets. So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger.
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He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it.
- Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top.
- He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there.
- Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested. If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on.
- Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked.
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Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season.
- While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year.
So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either. And that has been my belief all along as well.
While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's. The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up. I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them. And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year.
All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has.
Great summary, Thanks for this.
I will say, I think Beane was trying a little too hard to persuade everyone that he thinks the WR room is just fine and we'll be casually looking to add another piece or two at some point in the future, not anxiously perusing the draft board for guys who have "WR" listed for position as our draft picks approach.
But I agree with you that all signs point to "disinclined to make a big splash to move up to the top-10"
I thought it was interesting that Beane mentioned "guys who are already on the roster" contributing at WR and made an analogy to Terrell Bernard who had to "prove it" that he could step up. Khalil, after the end of the season, I think has left no doubt he can play in the league although as a #1 or #2 is a good question.
Does anyone think he might have been referring to Justin Shorter, last year's 5th round pick?
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
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36 minutes ago, M. Wrotto said:
With expectations lower this year than the past couple of years, here’s a thought. Offer Josh to the Bears for both of their first rounders and their second. Draft Williams, Thomas and Mckonkeywith the first rounders. Fill out the rest of the roster from there. Put 2024 in the books as a probable reset, Look out league in 2025.
I like a man with a great sense of humor.
Of course, we'd have to take on $106M or so in dead cap ($113 minus this year's salary), but what are a few $100 million or so between friends?
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A visual argument against trading down & for trading up
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Beck Water
add links as I said I would
OK, fair, I misunderstood - but I thought you were arguing for drafting up? The reason I misunderstood is that it doesn't make sense to me to argue for drafting up, by including a guy we both tag as a success who would be drafted by standing pat or trading BACK. How and why does that support your argument for trading up?
I don't know...my guess is "not" but I think your top-3 success rate would also decrease. Ultimately, while I appreciate and applaud the work you put in, honest comment I feel choosing "top 3 WR" (when they're drafted at different pick numbers year to year) is a bit problematic. People, including myself and organizations like PFF, have tried to look at success rates by criteria like "top 10 picks" or "top half of the first" or "first" - some of it is in other threads on this board right now.
The point is that while drafting, teams can't predict who the top 3 guys at a position will be, they can only make an educated guess about how early they need to draft to get a particular player.
The bottom line is that the best success for any position is usually in the top half of the 1st round - something like 50%. Overall, in the first round, it's 30% and usually not much lower in the top 10 picks of the 2nd round. The second round as a whole stays pretty high, 20-25%. Third round something like 15-20%, then it plummets.
Let me rummage a bit and I'll put a link to some of the recent stuff people have posted about WR success by draft round here....
Um, yes, you did include Ruggs as a "hit" when you brought up that the success would be 80% for a trade-up if you just included him - " If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???"
My point is that if you include one hypothetical to claim a hypothetical marvelous 80% hit rate, you open a can of worms where other hypotheticals can enter the fray. And um, I'm not sure where you get the notion I'm upset.
Not following you on the QB comment, but that's a nit.
.....looping back to link some of the recent posts
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254036-how-to-pick-a-top-wr/#comment-9016893
looked at top receivers for the last 3 seasons and where they were drafted.
39% of them from 1st round, equal split between top and bottom half of the 1st round
25% of them from 2nd round
21% from 3rd round
I'm not looking at "how many receivers were drafted where, and what % succeeded? I'm looking at "successful WR, where did they draft?"
Here's one by Rigotz
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254044-1st-vs-2nd-round-wr-hit-rate/#comment-9017898
He goes back 9 years but omits the 22 and 23 draft as too recent for good data...you'll like his conclusion
11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).
6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).
[So he would support you, don't trade back]
Here's one where I was looking at the most successful players in each draft, vs draft order
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/254021-interesting-wr-scenario-posed-by-a-friend/page/5/#comment-9016980
Just some different ways of approaching the same problem. Hope it's of interest.