MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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31 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Me, I'll go.
I was thinking he looked lost in space and slow in the game he played subbing for Milano his rookie season, and I had no expectation that we would see the level of play from him we saw.
Contrary points, Bernard had a scouting report that included this:
He also was game active for all 16 games and played regular snaps on ST
I did a bit of a deep dive because I wanted to know if there were hints of anything similar in any of the PS WR or last year's rookies.
I personally didn't see it in the stuff I dug up, but maybe I wasn't looking at it right. I guess the most promising to me based on write-ups would be Bryan Thompson.
It's certainly within the realm of possibility for both Kincaid and Shakir to elevate their games (not sure we'll see Shakir beating man coverage, esp. from the outside).
But when we had a higher level of WR talent in '20 and '21, we had more than 2 guys.
When we only had 2 guys (Brown and Beasley) in '19, it wasn't enough.
Pretty much just Diggs and Davis in 2022, Ditto.
No argument here, about needing more weapons on offense (regarding your point on prior years). All in agreement there.
I just don't think any of the guys you listed are capable, and also think this is typical "Beaneisms" this time of year.
Kincaid/Shakir are the only young ascending players. Question is still out about their ceiling/development this season.
Beane would be smart to take 2 WRs in one of the deepest classes in quite a while.
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Beanes done this discussion almost every offseason leading to draft, be it at DE or CB.
I do think he's counting on Kincaid to take his game to the next level. And for Shakir to become more consistent, especially at beating man coverage and zone reads.
But at the end of day, Beane is going to use the draft to fill 2 WR spots (likely a 1st and 4th rounder, IMO). Focus being on separation/down field threat/versatility.
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10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Take aways:
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
- He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28.
- When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them.
- Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. We did reportedly meet once with Thomas.
- He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below.
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I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting.
- Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that.
- But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary.
- He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets. So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger.
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He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it.
- Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top.
- He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there.
- Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook. It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested. If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on.
- Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked.
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Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season.
- While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year.
So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze. It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either. And that has been my belief all along as well.
While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's. The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up. I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them. And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year.
All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has.
JMO, if Beane is willing to part with the Diggs 2nd rounder.....then, possible trade teams at top of 2nd:
1. Car: I've outlined in other posts what I think is best
2. Ari: a team with two 3rds, we could give up #60, 2025 2nd, both 4ths, and our highest 5th. For- their 2nd, one of their 3rd rounders, and their 4th
To your point on DL, that gives us a chance to land someone at top of 2nd, such as Fiske. Beane I think considers that or if Darius is still there.
Say we do that with Ari:
1st: WR- Worthy or Franklin
Ari 2nd: Fiske
Ari 3rd: Best safety remaining
Ari 4th: RB or DE or WR
Might be a pipedream but draft value would be close. That would hit our key needs and give us impact guys at WR, DL, and S/RB
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I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR.
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@Hou on SNF for Week 1, is my guess.
The Diggs drama VS Bills new WRs, the up & coming Texans VS contender Bills, 2 great/young QBs, Texas market ratings.
If not week 1, definitely sometime early in the season on SNF
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4 minutes ago, Bag of Milk said:
I watch the draft until the bitter end every year Does anyone remember about what time the draft ended last year? I know it will vary somewhat
I actually have family coming in from out of town and I don't want to be interrupted until the draft is completely over.
I mean family is nice, but it's the Draft!!
I think it was somewhere between 430-530 (est)
2 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:I think it was somewhere between 430-530 (est)
Sorry just checked some posts from LY (Alex Austin pick occurred around 6:50 est).
7 more picks after him, then draft finished. So probably 730 ish
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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I don't think Worthy will be there at 28, and honestly I initially did not think we would have interest in him with how incredibe thin his frame is. Especially with how we like to see our WR's block but also with how bad our weather gets late in the season and playoffs, I thought they would prefer someone who is more physical where there is a premium on that when weather evens the playing field some with speed.
But, given the strong interest in Franklin and the fact they have met with Worthy I believe twice, its not as unlikely as I thought because Troy has a light frame too, albeit not as light as Worthy. So I think my initial thought earlier in the offseason regarding Worthy and Bills interest were premature and off given the amount of times they have met with these two guys they don't seem to be too worried about frame.
I still think Worthy is more of a WR2 in the NFL, I am just not convinced with his slender frame he can consistently get off the line clean or have his body handle the physicality of a 17 game and playoff long season. But that being said, that elite speed and Allen is a very exciting combo, so it would still be exciting addition.
Fair points, always appreciate you opinion man.
I'm higher on Worthy than most. I see ALOT of Zay Flowers in his game, who I liked more than Jordan LY. Also see some Jordan/bit of Tyreek. But again mostly Zay, and think he'll have just as much impact/success in our offense as Zay did for the Ravens.
Other than top 3 (and I'd take BTJ obviously over Worthy), Xavier has the best "suddenness" in his routes. He's just not a deep threat, but can break off the routes inside/outside/curls (stem tree) the best. He's not breaking a ton of tackles, but if he gets a block and makes the 1st man miss, he's an instant homerun threat on bubble screens/short routes too.
I'm thinking there's a 35% chance he makes it to us (simple math: 70% chance Miami passes on him for OT and 50% Dallas passes on him for OL help). Franklin is my #2 option. Then a very slight drop off to Ladd, Polk, Mitchell in that order. After that, I have a bunch of WRs lumped together: Wilson, Legette, Coleman, Tez
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3 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I'm honestly starting to really come around on the Green Bay method for our Offense. Especially with Kincaid set to take on a bigger role moving forward.
Still think we need two above average receivers added to this roster, but I'm not as sold that one of them needs to be a bona fide WR1.
Exactly what Beane has been saying this offseason.
But I think we need 1 solid #2, to pair with Samuel and Shakir at WR. Kincaid/Samuel/Rd1/Shakir is a very good group. Add a WR in RD4, say we draft Worthy or Franklin then look for size/blocking. That's basically what we need to have a full complementary group. That also boasts Cook, Knox, and likely some additional RB/WR targets.
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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
A question for you: who is most similar to Jordan Addison, who the Bills LOVED and who also proved this past season that he was worth the love? Whoever is closest to that and is within reason (i.e., not Nabers) is who I'd be betting on. It seems Franklin might be that guy.
I know you asked @Alphadawg7, who also had great info about Addison/Bills link LY.
I agree Franklin's comp is Addison/Tank Dell, but more Addison. I think Franklin (and Worthy for that matter, who I like even more) needs to add 5-10 lbs of muscle to his frame, which is definitely doable.
Franklin fits as a strong #2 option, which is what we need. Kincaid/Samuel/Shakir/Franklin would be a very good group. However, if Worthy would be there at 28, I think he's the pick.
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2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
I am thinking if a 1st round grade isn't there at 28, he trades back. I would then take our extra 4th and #60 and move into the top 50.
That will anger many, but give us 2 really talented players.
Going to depend who that trade back is with.
I see 4 teams that would likely draft a WR with picks 29-38 (plus whoever is trading up for 28).
I'd much rather use our 2025 2nd (our or Minnys) to move up from pick 60
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1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Most years it’s around 20.
Agree.
I also think, as Beane mentioned, is the talent/immediate impact players usually drop off around 50-60. I see this year as putting that line around 50. As we saw in our TBD mock drafts/etc, pick 60 is OK but it'd be more advantageous to find a way in top 10 picks of RD2.
I've been a big advocate of a RD2 tradeup, as opposed to Rd1. Think that is much easier to achieve, with the extra pick from Diggs trade
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Trading up in Rd2 sounds like a real possibility, as many on here like myself have discussed.
Car makes a TON of sense, given Beanes connection with Dan and that they have 2 early picks in the round.
Buf: Our 2025 2nd (from Minny) + #60 + #128
Car: #39 + #101 (plus a possible 6th in 2025)
This would allow us to 2 picks in the top 50, where I see a solid talent drop-off. And the top pick of Rd4: possibly a WR, S, DL, RB (depending on how we use #28/#39) that has slid.
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It's easy to read too much into comments this time of year, and perhaps Beane is trying to throw off other teams.
But, when I heard him talk about medicals and "we" (fans/media) question why they passed on a player (who has great highlights/media projections), along with mentals/versatile/unselfish. Just gets me thinking a guy like Mitchell is not the target. He isn't very versatile, IMO, his lack of effort on plays/talk about his diabetes/etc
Again, could be overthinking it. But I'm hearing versatile and guys I immediately think of at 28 or early RD2: Worthy, Franklin, Ladd, Coleman.
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Nice work @Alphadawg7!
I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme. Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.
JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well). If the right DL is still there.
I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back. But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.
Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now
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11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
I'm with you. If Latu lasted to #28 then, as you know, I'd probably take him. And while it wouldn't my pick I'd understand the reasoning behind Chop at #28 too. But beyond that the three second round grades I have - Trice, Braswell and Isaac - are all more 3-4 rushers for me. I might consider Trice if he is sticking out at #60 because I think he could be developed into a 4-3 end (he'd need to be sticking out) but I'm not sure he is a day 1 starter in this scheme. In round 3 I like Noah Elliss more than most but again not as a Bills fit I think he is a 3-4 outside backer who does his best work from a two point stance.
After those guys, honestly, I just don't like the class. I have a 5th round grade on Kneeland. I don't like him at all. I think he has very little pass rush upside. I think Austin Booker late 3rd / early 4th is someone who'd be of interest and Javon Solomon 4th/5th round too. Then you get into Jalyx Hunt, Brennan Jackson and Myles Cole who I'm fine to throw 5th, 6th, 7th rounders at but are not guys that you draft expecting to get into your rotation much in 2024.
We have a need at EDGE but you don't make Marshawn Kneeland the answer to that need just by overdrafting him on day 2. You may as well give Shaq Lawson another 1 year vet minimum deal for the value he'd bring.
I'm a big fan of Javon. I think he's a great fit for us as a situational pass rusher (wide 9 type).
He has the lower body bend/balance to arc to the QB, has great explosion. His size worries me in the run game, but I think he has 8 sack potential as a rookie in our system. His long arms is a big trait in what Beane looks for as well. His get off is better than anyone we have, except Von (if he regains prior form).
Just think Javon makes a ton of sense. As a 4th rounder, he's better value than Chop at 28, IMO. I think Javon is in play for Gmen at top of 4th, I'd preferably like to trade both of our 4ths to Arizona to get ahead of them
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Frank Gores kid and Isaih Davis are two guys that fit our mold in a rotational role/backup.
I agree 5th round is a nice sweet spot for landing a rotational backup
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11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
I’m assuming you are aware that the DE talent come Day 3 is pretty low .. Xavier Thomas and Kamara best of a bad bunch most likely …it’s debatable they are much better than Toohill or Kingsley…Im hoping that they can get a guy in the Top 60 .. along with 2 WR … yes Beane’s will really need to work some magic …
I think Javon Solomon is a strong possibility, in the 4th. Might require a small tradeup but he's someone I think the Bills are interested in.
Looking for a guy to compete as a 4th/5th edge player. Top 3 are locked in and Coohill might be a better fit than I'm expecting, or Jonathan makes a jump.
But I agree, it's not deep at all at Edge in this draft class. If we draft past the 4th round, it's probably competing for the last DE spot. I think if we land Solomon, he could add some pass rush juice sooner than later, but might be limited to mostly pass downs.
To me, ideally we land:
Rd1: Mitchell, Worthy, or Franklin
Rd2: Roke or Maason
Rd3: trade into 3rd (next years pick from Diggs trade) for Kam Kinchens or another safety
Rd4:trade up for Solomon
Use rest of draft on OL, CB, RB. That addresses our major/minor needs. Once we get to the 5th round especially, I see us going RB/CB - two positions where depth roster spots are open. We're fairly set on OL, could always use upgrades but don't see it happening until late.
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6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
I wouldn’t be relying on finding a post June 1 Leonard Floyd signing again … you can sign a guy but does mean it will work out as well as Floyd did ..DE is a very much a need … given the scheme rotation requirements and the question mark over Miller … Maybe not quite as big as WR …
100% agree and I mentioned that in a post.
Not expecting Floyd production, but 5-7 sacks. Thinking Ogbah is a strong possibility, or a lower chance for Yannick. I'm hopeful we land one of these post June 1st, on top of drafting a DE in the 4th-6th range to compete with Casey Toohill and Kingsley
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1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:
I think the cap savings from Tre are needed for signing the rookies.
Not true.
By the time rookie salary replaces existing player in top 51, we'd only be adding approx $2.5-3.0m. That's a ballpark estimate, but it won't be much higher than that. We already have that in available cap room.
We will need some the Tre money for Practice Squad/signings throughout the year onto roster.
But we should effectively have $5m or so to spend in FA, post June 1st. They could easily sign a 1yr deal with added voided years to fit a "Leonard Floyd" type for that. Just like LY.
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5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
You really want to count on Miller? He *might* be better this year, but I wouldn’t count on that. Really, that can sink their season as easily as wr can.
I think Von will be a solid 8-10 sack guy this year. Came back way early from his torn ACL, year 2 is always the "get close" to form year. Even at his age, he has 1-2 productive years left in this league.
He's highly motivated/hard worker naturally, but also has alot of incentives riding on this year.
JMO. But I'm also hoping Beane uses the post June 1 Tre $$$s on a FA DE. Someone who can be insurance/allow Groot to slide inside on passing downs again.
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12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract.
Their window with Hurts/Brown/Smith are the next couple years.
AJ Brown likely gone in 2026
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Looks a bit like Micah....but could be Austin Johnson
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Not only will the price tag of a Aiyuk, JJ, Higgins be alot, but the draft capital as well. We're likely talking a future 1st rounder at minimum.
If we're going to drop a future 1st, I'd rather do what it takes to move up for 1 one of the top 3 in this years draft.
I could see Beane wanting to get that "stud" prospect OR building our WR group like the GB model (young collective unit, but no #1).
Either way, I don't see us trading for a premier WR
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Again, we don’t have 2 starting edge players. We don’t have 2 starting outside WRs.
Need isn’t a question here. We need both, but we can’t draft both at 28.
I beg to differ about Edge. Like I mentioned, for better or worse, we're likely to roll with Groot and a combo of Von/AJE ( and potential FA signing post June 1st). We're counting on Von to get close to his old form and for AJE to be more consistent.
Next year, Edge will be the biggest need once Von is cut.
As for WR, we "might" have 1 outside WR in Samuel. Bigger than that, we don't have any downfield threats.
We have a starting DL to roll out, we can't say the same about WR
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
This is not how you draft. Trading Diggs doesn’t mean you take a worse player.
If a 1st round player drops to 28 then you take him.The Bills will probably have around 20 1st round players in this draft. If one falls to 28 it’s an easy pick. If none fall then they probably take the top WR remaining on their board.
I'm not debating how you draft, you just changed the topic.
You stated that Edge is a greater need than WR. I was trying to convey my opinion as to why it isn't. Then I added what I hope to see happen in the draft.
Two separate topics, but DE is not a greater need than WR
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The Dark Horse WR on the Roster (Beane made reference to guys on the roster elevating their play)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Not sure why you keep saying "2 receivers". My point is simple:
1. Can't believe everything Beane is saying right now. A couple years ago he mentioned counting on Boogie to take hold of a starting DE spot. Then proceeded to sign Von. Same example about talking up Dane, then drafting Elam. He's always propping his current guys and expecting more of them.
2. Beane is going to draft more WRs. Likely 2. So when you say we have "2 receivers", that won't be the case in 9 days.
Our core group for passing targets is likely to be: Samuel, Kincaid, Rd1 pick, Shakir, Rd 4 pick, Cook, Knox
As to who those 2 draft picks will be, that's anyone's opinion as of now. My "hope" is they take:
Rd 1: Worthy (if there), or Franklin
Rd4: Javon Baker
Gives us 2 legitimate downfield threats, both guys would be versatile to move around the offense (as Beane/Brady seem to want). They complement each other's skill sets well, ie: Worthy or Franklin are separators/lean/rely on speed and quicks.... Baker is stronger built/capable blocker/50 50 downfield guy, with good speed.
So when Beane makes it sound like the Justin Shorters or Andy Isabellas of our team are to be relied on, that's just GM speak to me. We've seen nothing from any of the guys you listed that provides what we need. More likely they're battling for the last WR spot with Hollins, or against each other if we keep 6. Either way, not a significant impact to our success in 2024