MasterStrategist
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Posts posted by MasterStrategist
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6 hours ago, HappyDays said:
The problem is we have constantly thrown ample resources at the defense, and they still fall apart in the playoffs year after year. I agree that championship teams typically have better defensive showings than what the Bills have fielded in the playoffs. But it's getting to a point where you have to look beyond the players. We keep switching out the players on defense but the result is always the same. Against the Chiefs this year the defense arguably turned in its worst playoff performance of the McDermott era when accounting for the caliber of the opponent. So it is getting worse, not better.
I hope McDermott is taking a long hard look at himself this offseason. That's where the big defensive improvement is going to come from, not from further imbalancing the defense vs offense resource investment.
On offense I have felt that the problem is the exact opposite of what I just described. The offense under Allen regularly shows up in the playoffs and performs above its regular season standard. I haven't had many qualms with offensive coaching in those games. Instead I have observed that a few critical plays a game are swung in our opponent's direction because of player error. A dropped pass here, an OL breakdown there. And every one of these player mistakes is magnified because the offense is being forced into a shootout due to the aforementioned defensive failures.
So I don't believe adding more defensive players is going to solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball, whereas adding more offensive players will solve our fundamental problem on that side of the ball. Kincaid came in as a rookie and had an immediate positive impact, breaking a couple franchise records along the way and scoring a TD in the playoffs. I'm still waiting for a highly drafted defensive player to have that kind of impact. At this point the Bills should just focus on making a move that they know will have a measurable positive impact on the team, and drafting a WR high in a WR-rich draft is too obvious an answer not to do it.
I'll play devils advocate.
Disagree with your point about McDermott coaching tendencies/philosophy, and bad defense vs Chiefs in playoffs. We had WAY too many injuries to compete on defense, on every level-especially missing our top 2 LBs against a team with a dominant TE and Coach's use of LBs being paramount.
Each postseason, except for 2020, we've entered with too many injuries to key players:
1. 2021: Tre
2. 2022: Von, Tre still hobbled, Micah, Daquan
3. 2023: Milano, Bernard, Daquan coming off a torn pec, Rasul playing at 75%
Problem is injuries and not having a dominant player on defense. Easier to overcome injuries, if we have a dominant guy healthy. Instead, we have several very good guys and when 1-2 miss, then we're SOL.
Our offense plays lights our because of Josh. Eventually we need to find an equivalent defensive output to rely on. And to me, that's what Beane has been chasing (Von signing, DL investments), and he should keep going that route until he hits.
With such a deep WR class, there will be very good WRs sitting there in round 2. Usually is anyhow in each class, it's about proper scouting/etc but it's easier to hit when more talent is there.
At DL, such a weak class overall, but there are 1-2 guys who could be there in Round 1 that could be a huge help.
Diggs, Samuel, a 2nd round WR with deep ball skills, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox would already be an upgrade on LY and likely our best group since 2020. I just don't think we need a RD1 WR, not after investing in Kincaid LY and Samuel, to go with current group. Our DE room is going to look bare after 2024 season, with Von likely gone and AJE isn't any more than a DE3- need more juice up front.
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2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
There isn't going to be a top Tier DE at 28,there will be a top wr at 28.
This is the year to draft Diggs replacement. We did the whole overload picks on the DL. WR needs to be the pick at 28.
You are correct good sir.
There will be "close to equal" talent in RD2 at WR, if we move up to 50. WR6-8 at 28, vs WR 10-14 in RD2 isn't much drop-off.
At DE, both Robinsons are tier 2 talents to me (potential). Different skill sets, Chop brings the elite athleticism, while the other is more physical and can bounce inside too. Either is worthy of 28
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1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:
DT is by far the biggest need. DE we at least have 3 solid ones in Rousseau, Miller, and Epenesa. We literally have 2 DTs on the roster right now.Miller is a wild card, he either gets close to prior form OR he is washed up. I think he'll rebound, but he's not going to be what he was in 2022 pre injury. He's a rotational piece to me.
Von is also gone after this year, and AJE isn't a DE2 (he could be, but isn't yet). Groot isn't locked up longterm either. I say DE is something that could impact the team the most.
DT, I'm fine with Jones and Ed. Find a viable backup in FA (either at 1 tech or 3 tech), draft the other later rounds.
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Just now, gonzo1105 said:
See I like these convos to me if you put Samuel in the slot which is possible than Shakir isn’t playing because last years first round pick Kincaid needs a higher % of snaps than being a traditional Y.it makes more sense to play Samuel outside so Shakir and Kincaid can do what they do best.
Agree with both sides of discussion, Samuel is versatile piece. But another reason we don't "need" a RD1 WR.
With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, that's already a solid group. A WR in RD2, of the deepest draft at WR in history, is all we need.
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2 minutes ago, Success said:
I'm thinking this too. The more I think about it - we have that capital to trade up in round 2, and now it feels like we can really beef up the D-line in round 1 & still get a good receiver w/ the 2nd pick, given how deep this class is.
Exactly. DE and WR are both equal needs but I think DE could have biggest impact on success of team.
We don't have a top tier DL player. We have 1 tier two player (Ed), a tier 3 guy (Groot), tier 3-4 in AJE and Von.
We need another DL player in the tier 2 category, or ideally potential to be an all-pro. We won't have success late in playoffs with what we have now, just not good enough.
We arent in position to get an elite player at DL on draft, but both Robinsons have different skill sets, and bring potential to be tier 2 guys relatively quickly.
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5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
There it is! We have our baseline WR2. Now draft the best WR available in the 1st round and we are in business.
Exactly baseline WR2/complimentary piece to the WR room.
I mentioned earlier today in the Armstead thread, that Beane is likely targeting Samuel/MVS, then going DL in RD1. Wr in RD2 (trade up to high 40s/#50, to get ahead of Steelers).
Will see if draft plays out like that. But hoping we can get our starting FS before draft, and a backup DT.
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2 minutes ago, SCBills said:
1) This isn't happening
2) People seem to have zero clue of the draft value chart when it comes to our Day 3 picks. The only way we're materially moving up in Round 1 of this Draft is by packaging 28 and next years RD1.. We only have one Day 2 pick and our RD4's can move us up a couple spots each, at most.
Agreed. Those day 3 picks will be valuable for moving up in Rd 2 though.
Say to jump ahead of Steelers, move from Pick 60 to Pick 50. Both Steelers and Bills have very similar positional needs: WR, Safety, Center
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Just now, BigAl2526 said:
I'm not saying the Bills can't do it. I just think that the Bills might think they want to spend their free agent dollars elsewhere, like safety. There are still good safeties available. I really don't think Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis are starters in Buffalo's defense while Buffalo has starters on the interior of their defensive line.
Exactly. We get better value investing those FA $s/remaining cap on a WR (such as Samuel/MVS) and a starting caliber FS.
1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
got to think outside the boxArik & Rousseau at DE against the run.
Arik & Ed inside against the pass.
He is fully capable of playing anywhere on our DL and has done so with the Niners
Solid logic why a versatile DL would help. I mentioned a couple RD1 DL prospects above, who could help immediately. Team likes bumping Groot inside on passing downs as well, so that's an existing option.
Just think a low-tier WR2 and starting FS are wiser investments, with remaining cap $s.
Go get that DL prospect early, and WR in RD2 (in one of the deepest classes ever)
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Just now, Logic said:
We may very well not land him because the Texans have more money and he played for DeMeco Ryans before, but...
Based on two historically reliable sources, the Bills absolutely ARE going after Armstead currently, as we speak. It's happening.
May not land him, but they're damned sure trying.Sorry, should have said I don't think Beane will get into a bidding war. I think he has a value on Erik and doesn't "go after him too aggressively", IMO/no source.
Personally, I'd rather invest an early pick on DL...knowing Von is likely gone after this year, and AJE is only on a 2-yr deal/isn't a DE2.
WR is so deep we can find a starter in RD2
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I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him. Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put.
As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR.
DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch
WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2)
I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up. Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick.
Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr. Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group.
DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT
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2 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Yeah and I was hoping the likes of Rapp and Lewis and Morrow would be filled in by those cheap draft picks, not veteran contracts. Obviously the entire depth of the roster isn't going to be just rookies but can't these sorts of signings wait until we know what our draft class looks like?
The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA. Perhaps they still have a plan there.
Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play.
Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2.
It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB. But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism. McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play. Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.
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27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Classic Beane move of getting pieces in place before the draft.
The DL still needs work, and I'm sure we'll be drafting DT early. But we at least have a starting 4 in place if the ***** hits the fan and we cant get our targets.
DT and WR in rounds 1 and 2 in whichever order depending who is available.
Re: draft/round 1 and 2
If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG.
With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6. Same for DE4 slot.
I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.
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1 minute ago, TheWeatherMan said:
Did you watch the last 8 games of the season?
Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like
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Just now, TheWeatherMan said:
We need a WR 1, we all ready have a WR 2 and WR 3
Cookie?
Diggs is WR1. Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy. By definition, that's WR1
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13 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
I wonder if the Bills would look at add Jamel Agnew as a 4th/5th WR and return specialist? Or bring back a guy like Brandon Powell who was here for a brief time?
I think both those guys are exactly the type of WR we look for in FA.
Then two WRs in draft. Along with a late round RB. I think we find another vet in FA for RB2. Brady wants to run a more balanced offense, I think it's important to find a RB2 in FA
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Not sure why ppl want to sign a WR2. Round 1 pick is likely pegged for that.
We likely need a WR4, $5-6m type.
Then draft a 2nd WR in middle rounds.
With Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Cook. We need 1 very good option to add, and a couple supporting types.
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1 minute ago, BBFL said:
He’s capable, just got to show it. Do we see us bringing any other guys on the edge outside the draft?
Yes. I could see us going for a vet, on a y
1yr deal.
Ogbah has been tossed around. Shaq Lawson is the absolute fall back plan. But we might see what happens in draft and pick from the remaining DEs in May/June.
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Cross off DE3 need. Waiting for contract, guessing 2 years for $16m, up to $20m.
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I like the Cam re-signing (prob in minority). He brings versatility, 1 player who can play slot/safety/above avg ST.
Not a fan of the Rapp re-signing. He looked like a backup LY, just don't like putting decent cap $s into backups this early in FA. He's the type of guy we could replace with a June signing or Day 3 pick.
Rest of the guys released/not re-signed, Beane made tough but good decisions IMO.
Be good to get our DE3 in FA, and our starting 1-tech DT. A starting safety would be ideal, not sure if Rapp is their answer but he shouldn't be. And 1 WR, in the Noah Brown price range.
Then hit WR and OL early, fill out depth at DL and S later in draft
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2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
Ok so no evidence..got it
Happy has posted many injury "inside" info, during the season...ie: Groot foot, Knox wrist, McGovern knee, etc
He's also posted signings/interest in future players, ie: Murray, Joseph, Ford, etc LY
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This has been Beanes biggest issue....he finds a bunch of B/B+ guys to accompany Josh and Stefon, latter is now a B-type guy.
It's a solid/very good roster, but not enough star power. Von was supposed to be the elite guy, along with Tre coming back from injury, but things went sideways.
We need to be "elite" on one side of the ball at least. Either stack up the defense, or more suitable for this draft, stack the WR room and OL.
McDermott is a very good defensive mind and we can win a SB with an elite offense and tier 2 defense. Just need another playmaker, upgrade on Morse, and hopefully we see Kincaid/Shakir continue improving.
Rd 1 WR and Rd 2 G/C, just might put us at elite offense...if they hit on the picks and a WR4 in FA.
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1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:
This has some information but not everything. Guess it doesn't really matter.
Anyway, his base is cut from $17.5 million to $8.855 which saves 8.645 on the cap...that is not guarantees that is cap. His guarantee for 2024 was 10.71M. What is it now? Also, some of that
Here is another nugget online ". They moved more cap into the future by converting some of that compensation into a bonus and prorating it, but the details of that remain unclear." So some of the cap decrease is not just a paycut, I contend the paycut is not that signficant, they are giving him the opportunity to make it all up and then some, so it was a trade off of guarantees for a high ceiling for Von. The restructure saved a lot of cap, did not reduce his guarantees a "TON". They accomplished this by some traditional restructure....converting salary to bonus and prorating it and some by a change in the guarantees for 24 with the NLTBE incentives. Over the cap mentions the details are not out "Miller accepted a pay cut in 2024 reducing his salary from $17.5 million to $8.885 million per ESPN's Field Yates. We have updated his contract figures for 2024 based on a handful of reports about the pay reduction and will update further when we receive more information on the contract." Anyway, the cap reduction is what people care about but tit is not being as widely reported that they did bonus proration which is not great for his situation.
According to multiple reports, the Bills and linebacker Von Miller agreed to terms on a contract restructure. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that Miller's 2024 base salary of $17.145 million was lowered to $8.5 million. Additionally, there are "reachable incentives" that can get him back to earning $17.145 million and additional, higher incentives to bring him nearly $20 million.
Spotrac tells a different story, than you're referencing above.
Salary: all agree that was reduced significantly
Cap in 2024: all agree this reduced by approx $8m
2024 Roster bonus: Spotrac shows this as "non guaranteed" (but ability to convert to signing bonus). This is where the difference lies with what you stated above.
2024 Guaranteed $: not yet clear, but if the roster bonus isn't guaranteed, then we're talking somewhere close to 8.5m as gtd $. And your original $10m estimate was low, it was closer to $17m for 2024
Incentives: yes these could put Von in better $ situation, but I personally like the "pay for performance" incentives (which don't count against cap)
Future cap years: I'm not seeing how our future cap is implicated at all. Unless his roster bonus was indeed "guaranteed"/amortized across remaining years of deal (which would add approx $2m to each future year)
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This $$$ has to be earmarked for DL reinforcements. Von did Beane a solid, and team. That $8m can go a long way to get a couple solid players, or a Floyd type on 1 year deal
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Agents typically pump out the high end ("up to")...I'd imagine it will be backup/3rd safety type money (dime)
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CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agree, I'm not advocating a "reach" at DE. I however think that the Robinsons, Chop and Darius will be excellent picks. Bring something different in skill sets, but both can "win" matchups and create havoc.
Nobody knows which prospects will prosper, so I won't waste time arguing merits of one versus another. But I'll continue to say that we need DE/pass rush help badly. Just a bit more than WR, IMO, after the Samuel pickup. Player evaluation needs to meet the draft slot, but we're a better/more rounded team, if the scouting/evaluation has a DE=a WR at 28....you take the DE and come back with a WR in round 2 (potentially moving up, which I'm mentioned in numerous other posts)