ROCBillsBeliever
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Posts posted by ROCBillsBeliever
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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:
Here is the deal...teams are gonna fleece Beane if he tries to tradeup. Everyone knows we want a WR, so they will jack up the trade compensation
@SoonerBillsFan This is precisely the situation I'm worried about: Maybe getting the next great WR, but leaving the asset cupboard bare for the next couple of seasons. This is the way good teams crumble: Over-estimating their valuations, over-paying assets, and still being uncertain whether or not the player you traded up for will make the impact you believe.
Sammy Watkins, anyone?
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8 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:
If you have predraft media coverage fatigue and 3 months is enough time for your post playoff loss soul to recover, J T has dropped his review of Josh's playoff loss performance. These are always informative and well done, imo.
I'll be honest, I almost ignored this video because I initially read it as "Jerry O'Sullivan," and I couldn't imagine wasting more than 5 seconds watching that deflated satchel of bones appear on screen, and listening to him talk bad about the Bills. I'm just glad he's crawled off into insignificance.
Thanks for the share, in retrospect. Good insights!
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10 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Fair enough on that last. I also agree on the point that teams can and do draft good WR who contribute heavily to their success in the 2nd and later.
But context is also important; my point is that considering Romeo Doubs as a better 2022 draft choice than Khalil Shakir may not be justified, given Shakir's 63 fewer yards on less than half the targets Doubs got.I personally think you're overestimating the quality of GB's WR and under-crediting the quality of our 2 choices, Davis and Shakir, for the round in which they were drafted.
I also think the problem with the Bills drafting WR is that after muffing on Zay Jones in the 2017 2nd, we simply haven't invested the draft resources at the position. Take KC, who look like they finally got a good 2nd round WR in Rashee Rice (if his culpable driving and legal troubles don't derail him). They took 3 - 2nd round shots who are totally meh in Mecole Hardman (2019) Skyy Moore (2022) and now Rice, to get what looks like one legit guy.
I don't think our problem is necessarily scouting, but more
1) draft day shenanigans by Beane (trading away mid-round pick resources to move up in the 1st and 2nd or to trade for a player - we've been without a 4th 21,22,23 and we're without a 3rd in 24
2) allocation of resources - we haven't actually drafted a WR earlier than Rd 4 since 2017, before Beane officially arrived.
In the 2nd round, we've drafted 2 OG, a RB, and 2 DE (and traded to move up).
In the 3rd round, we've drafted 2 RB, a TE, an OT, 2 LB, and a DT
I think it's possible that Beane and his FO might ID and draft good WR talent in the mid-rounds - but they haven't pulled the trigger.
Note that I'm not saying they were wrong to allocate resources as they have - I'm all about protecting Josh, for example. But someone has to catch the ball.
Oh, I wasn't saying that the Doubts pick was better than the Shakir one; I'm saying there are talented scouts out there, who play a hand in selecting good WR outside of the 1st round. I agree that McBeane have collectively "turtled", since the Zay Jones experiment, and their resource allocation choices haven't been what I would have hoped, either.
My point is that it would be wise for Beane to identify those scouts picking productive WR outside of round one, and bring them into the fold. Not every single example is perfect, but I don't feel like we have been confident enough in our scouting of rounds 2-3 WR to pick one. Maybe it is just their overreaction to the Jones pick; us amateur speculators will never know.
But if the following are true:
1. Beane has a lack of confidence in our scouting of 2nd-3rd round WR talent.
2. Some other teams seem to capably draft WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Then, why would we not want to look to successful programs and talent identifiers / scouts?
That is my point.
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42 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Let's unpack this. "Green Bay has quietly built a nasty receiver corps with 2 2nds, a 4th, and a 5th".
That would be Jayden Reed (64 for 793), Christian Watson (28 for 422' 41 for 611 last year), Romeo Doubs (59 for 674; 42 for 425 last year), and Dontayvion Wicks (39 for 581). Add in 2 - 350 yd seasons from 2 TE and 2 - 230 yd seasons from 2 RBs and you account for most of the receiving productivity for a team that was 12th in passing yards and 15th in passing attempts. Now obviously a lot goes into this - the QB, the OL, the design of the offense - but none of those numbers are exactly Chase/Boyd/Higgins or Brown/Smith/Goeddert or Hill/Waddle level nastiness.
So let's keep unpacking. You're pointing at exceptional scouting on the part of GB and Pitt, such that you suggest Beane hire their scouts away. So let's ask, are these WR exceptional for where they were drafted? Well Reed (pick 50) was obviously a good choice, and better last season than Mingo (pick 39). But, he was not as productive as Rashee Rice (pick 51). Josh Downs, drafted at 79, was almost as productive, and Tank Dell (pick 61) was more productive on a per-game basis.
More unpacking. Watson is the 3rd most productive WR from the 2nd round 2022, behind Pickens and Alec Pierce (both drafted after Watson). Doubs, drafted in the 4th, is an outlier and was almost as productive as Watson. Maybe GB great scouting ought to have drafted Pickens or Pierce?
Doubs has been a very good choice. He has been more productive than Buffalo's 2022 pick Khalil Shakir. But, Shakir had a 2nd season that was almost as good (39 for 611) as Doubs 2nd season, and that's WITH being behind a #1 WR who dominates the target share in Diggs. I think it may be TBD as to what Shakir can be with a more equitable target share. Doubs had 96 targets, and caught 61.5% of them; Shakir had 45 targets, and caught 86.7% of them. On a per-target basis, one can make an argument for Shakir being the better choice.
Joe Marino podcast is every day, right? So I guess he needs stuff to talk about. If his point is that 2nd round and later round picks can fill out a decent WR corps, Sure! I 100% agree! But that doesn't give you a "freakazoid" WR who can take over a game, either.
If his idea is that the Bills should lure away Pittsburgh and GB scouts because their WR drafting is so much better than ours (or is that your idea?) I don't think the results are terribly persuasive. We all missed Puka Nacua, so if we're going to hire away scouts, let's get the guy who scouted HIM.
I guess I'd like to finish by pointing out that 4th round Gabe Davis was more productive than Reed on a per-target basis (62 vs 92 targets, Davis had 45 for 745), has shown that he can contribute that well or better 2 years in a row, and yet far from extolling him as an example of good drafting there was a lot of drum-beating that Gabe Davis just "wasn't a true #2" and we needed better.
I kinda wonder if there isn't a bit of "grass is greener" syndrome going on here.
I wouldn't say it was Marino's idea to lure away GB and Pitt's scouts; that's just my take. All I'm saying is people on here are very likely to freak out if we don't take a WR in the 1st, while other team have proven capable of taking good WR in the 2nd and later.
Piggybacking on that is that if other teams have gotten good results, why should our staff ignore that?
Point on Pooka, of course. I was just mentioning two teams who have landed good WR outside of round one.
And yes: I do think that paying attention to teams that draft a position we need is probably wise.
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2 hours ago, eball said:
Fans don't want to hear it or admit it, but the truth of the matter is that it takes a tremendous amount of luck to be consistently good in the NFL. You can have the best organization in place and have a mediocre team, or a bunch of jokers in the front office and luck out with your QB.
The teams that stay consistently relevant have a combination of good luck with key draft picks and the ability to pivot and fix things that are going wrong through trades and free agency.
@eball Like Buffalo Rumblings podcast host, Bruce Nolan, says: Be as good as you can for as long as you can, and hope for a little luck 😉
2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:Take for example the Steelers.
That team is consistently excellent at drafting WR and pass rushers.
@Pine Barrens Mafia You know, this is the kind of meta-analysis we should really talk about. Is Beane head-hunting for the scouts that keep getting hits on high-value positions in the draft?
Joe Marino, of Locked on Bills Podcast, noted the other day that Green Bay has quietly built a nasty WR corps, without a single 1st round pick (two 2nds, a 4th, and a 5th).
If I'm Beane, I would be in Terry's ear (or pocketbook), trying to get him to buy out some of Green Bay and Pittsburgh's scouts. That's what's going to make us successful, down the road. 4-D chess, man!
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I went Franklin because if there is a chance to double-dip at WR, there's not another player left with his skillset. Also, I think Coleman falls further than Franklin would, so there's still a slight chance to trade up for Coleman.
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Just now, Low Positive said:
That tie between Brady and Franklin makes sense. It's already pretty obvious that he told Beane to get him Samuel. I just think that its a risk to draft for an OC who might not be here in a year.
Yeah, definitely true on the Samuel signing, and good point on Brady's potential tenure. I mean, none of us know how long these guys will last. Heck, if you told me we would move on from Morse--or to a lesser extent Diggs, due to the dead money--I'd have scoffed at it, but here we are.
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Just now, KDIGGZ said:
Maybe but I don't see a lot of people high on him so I think he's more of a day 2 guy so to get him at 28 would not be good value imo
@KDIGGZ Ha ha! That's exactly what I was saying: If we can get him with a trade down into the 2nd, or a slight trade up from 60, I'm in. Right there with ya, buddy!
Agreed that he's not the value I want at 28.
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1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:
Terrible combine unless you believe that he was sick. Reminds me of the bad singers on American Idol that say their throat hurts. Also seems to go down really easily. I don't think he's worth 28. He'd be good value at 60 but unlikely to be there.
You know who else was skinny and went down easily? Diggs.
Just sayin'. I'm not super high on Franklin, but we literally just need bodies that can run and catch, at this point. If we can get him with either a trade down in the 1st or a small trade up in the 2nd, I would be down with it.
Also of note: I've heard that Brady courted Franklin to try and get him to LSU, while Brady was there. He's got some intel on Franklin, and if Brady likes him, there's got to be good reason for it. Just food for thought.
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Andy Reid is sending his son to consult with Sweat, now, about trying to drop further, so they don't even need to spend assets on him. Inhumane behavior, but #typical from KC...
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8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Yep.
Option 1: Trade up big, giving up next year's #1, one of next year's #2s and some mid round picks and get into the top 10 for one of the consensus top 3;
Option 2: Trade up smaller giving up one of next year's #2s and a mid round pick for (most likely) Thomas;
Option 3: Take an X receiver at #28 (likely Mitchell or Legette) and a Z type / move receiver at #60;
Option 4: Take a Z type / move receiver at #28 (likely Ladd or Worthy) and trade up in round 2 giving up one of next year's #2s for an X receiver (likely Legette or Coleman) in the 40s.
I think we are going to see one of those 4 options.
@GunnerBill I'll have a double-portion of Option 4, with a side of chips & malt vinegar, please!
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Does this mean McDermott will actually start rookie WR, this season, or is the plan to only pass to James Cook and Tyler Johnson 🤔
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Just saw that Vonte Davis passed. For the less than stellar time he had here, Davis should be remembered for some seriously incredible seasons:
Sad loss.
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On 3/27/2024 at 9:31 PM, Floydboy12 said:
Think if Dejean is there in round one you take him. He starts immediately at safety or maybe even corner. The cb from Boston College really fits what the Bills do. My guy at receiver is Corley but i am biased and we’ll have to see if he can run routes. He may slip and i hope he does and Bills can grab him in second. Think the Barton kid is gonna be a helluva center for years.
Have to agree on Corley. Sadly, he is mostly a slot guy, so he'll basically help some other team beat us 😭
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36 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:
I’d love that pick if he was there but I think the Steelers will get him at 20
PLEASE, Tomlin: Take JPJ, so we don't have to! Bump another (Insert word that's been banned from this thread) down the board!
Am I doing this right?
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46 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:
ROC, fair point brother, but not for nothing, the key difference between then and now, is Josh Allen—we are built to win now and pile on the weapons for him; back then we needed to find a QB plus more, and were not going to make any noise in the playoffs, so it was a colossal waste of resources by Whaley to do it, imho.
That's valid: We aren't where we were, and the calculus has changed. Maybe I'm scarred; maybe those scars still speak.
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I feel like the only people voting "Yes" didn't live through the Watkins debacle.
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5 hours ago, freddyjj said:
@Ethan in Cleveland I dunno, maybe move out of Cleveland to improve your perspective?
Yeah, @Ethan in Cleveland, I hear The Browns have global marketing rights in Nigeria:
They may just need an insightful poster like you to head up their message boards, over there. Opportunity knocks, OP! Get 'er done.
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28 minutes ago, appoo said:
If he’s settled on Edwards & Rapp being our starters (which, to be clear, terrifies me) then he doesn’t have much FA business left
Beane is killing itThe problem with DT is that we have a single legit pass rusher from the interior in Oliver and we really need someone who can do that behind him.
If Jer’zahn Newton is there when the bills are picking in the first I’d hope they seriously consider him
Or if Byron Murphy III slips, and AD Mitchell and BT Jr are off the board, I'd be good with Murphy, too.
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10 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
he’s never called for squat when we play them it feels like@Warriorspikes51 I was about to post this. Pretty aggravating. That one on Sherfield cost us in the AFC Divisional Round.
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26 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Has there ever been an Alabama prospect that has excelled in a Bills uniform?
Does Levi Wallace count, in terms of "Excelled"?
Meh... 🤷♂️
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Whelp, instead of lying down and dying, like our D does in playoff games, this guy appears to make splash plays in those situations. The whole starter v.s. backup argument is moot... We had defensive starters who underperformed when the chips were down. This guy has proven he outperforms in those situations.
For that reason alone I'm on board with this signing.
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What are your draft plans? (Menu, setting, etc)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Night I: Ziggy's ("Dive" Bills bar in The Public Market of Rochester), with the crew who watches games together all year.
Night II: Bar Bill Tavern East, in Irondequoit Bay, with some dudes I'm trying to convert to BILLievers.
Night III: Home in front of my compy.