Rigotz
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Posts posted by Rigotz
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This was meant to be a Josh Allen analysis, but I learned more about Diggs than I had ever expected in this.
Way more than any article published the last several months.
This is the reason Diggs was traded.
He was paid to be a game wrecker and he showed up all over this film as a JAG. Can't throw to him when he's covered, isn't beating players with effort, isn't even beating single coverage. That's not a $30M/yr player and when Beane got a 2nd round pick to him, I bet he ran to cash in the offer. I'm actually excited to replace him with the collateral we receive in return for cutting him ($30M and a 2nd next year).
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Only a Bills fan would wait 20 years for an elite, superstar QB to come to town, then suggest trading him for draft picks.
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Is this funny?
I know a lot of Mexicans named Jesus and it never cracks me up.
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Ah yes, the increasingly popular opinion:
"I don't understand this, so it's not real"
Bill Belichick was notorious for trading down to accumulate an immense amount of picks because he believed the draft is mostly a gamble. He was one of the worst GMs in modern history. Of course there is luck involved, but GMs like Ozzie Newsom routinely outperform awful GMs like Matt Millen and Bill O'Brien.
In the new world of advanced analytics, these gaps will tighten even more, and the expected value of a player will be closer to their real value.
Looking at historical analysis of hit rates is a fool's errand. The world has changed.
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You can do this with any position.
”You don’t need a superstar LT to win a Super Bowl”
”You don’t need a superstar DE to win a Super Bowl”
You generally need a great QB. All other positions don’t dictate your future.
But franchise WRs, LTs, CBs, DEs, etc make it easier. They’re the second tier of most important positions.
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2 hours ago, Watkins101 said:
Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career.
I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32?If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap.
16 minutes ago, MJS said:Tyler Boyd and DeVante Parker aren't hits? Christian Kirk has been pretty good too.
Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed. -
5 minutes ago, Augie said:
So…….it’s almost hopeless. Great! 😂
Not my intended point!
It's a great WR class this year and perfect time to take one in Round 1 or 2.
My only objection is this point I seem to hear constantly on Bills podcasts that state "there's a ton of value available in Round 2." That doesn't seem accurate.
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I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.
It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.
So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.
I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.
Totals:
11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).
6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).
2021:
1st Round
Ja'Marr Chase ++
Jaylen Waddle ++
DeVonta Smith ++
Kadarius Toney
Rashod Bateman
2nd Round
Elijah Moore
Rondale Moore
D'Wayne Eskridge
Tutu Atwell
Terrace Marshall Jr
2020:
1st Round
Henry Ruggs
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb ++
Jalen Reagor
Justin Jefferson ++
Brandon Aiyuk ++
2nd Round
Tee Higgins ++
Michael Pittman ++
Laviska Shenault
KJ Hamler
Chase Claypool
Van Jefferson
Denzel Mims
2019:
1st Round
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
2nd Round
Deebo Samuel ++
AJ Brown ++
Mecole Hardman
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Andy Isabella
DK Metcalf ++
2018:
1st Round:
DJ Moore ++
Calvin Ridley
2nd Round:
Courtland Sutton
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Anthony MIller
James Washintgon
DJ Chark
2017:
1st Round:
Corey Davis
Mike Williams ++
John Ross
2nd Round:
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
2016:
1st Round:
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
2nd Round:
Sterling Shepard
Michael Thomas +?
Tyler Boyd
2015:
1st Round:
Amari Cooper ++
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
2nd Round:
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
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Bass:
4 years in the league. 27 years old. Last year was rough.
In 2022 Bass was 27 for 31 including several clutch last minute kicks you might have forgotten.
In 2021 Bass was 28 for 32 with several clutch kicks ... again.
Butker:
7 years in the league. 28 years old. Last year he was great. The year before he was awful.
In 2022, Butker was 18 for 24 and also had a worse Extra Point % than Bass ever had.
The Chiefs had zero confidence in his kicking two years ago.
Did the Chiefs cry about it or cut Harrison Butker?
No. They let him play and get over his "yips" which is common for Kickers. He rewarded them.
Bass is still a good kicker. He just had a bad season.
It's going to be ok.
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4 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:
ALLEN
Milano contract
Bernard
Shakir
Dawkins contract
Oliver contract
Daquan
Benford
Taron contract
Cook
Kincaid
Douglas
OCyrus
McGovern
Edwards
Epenesa contract
Groot/Brown
Top 5 GM in the game
How about the contracts he DIDNT give out.NOT paying Tremaine Edmunds $18M/yr
NOT paying Gabe Davis $13M/yr
NOT giving Poyer a massive extension last year, letting him test free agency, then letting him sign for significantly less.
NOT paying Jordan Phillips after a 10 sack season.
NOT paying Shaq Lawson after his best season.
These are all situations where Bills players were allowed to walk and another GM gave them an awful contract. Where’s the credit for these?
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HOW DARE HE NOT GET EVERY SINGLE THING RIGHT!
BE GONE! Bring back Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley, Marv Levy, Russ Brandon (????), and Tom Donahoe!
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5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
Virtually every Bills centric media member was dismissive about the possibility of him being traded beforehand. Some went so far as to be rude about it and acted like people making the suggestion were idiots for even thinking it was a possibility.
Fast forward to the aftermath and I’ve yet to hear one utter anything in the way of a mea culpa. I literally heard one of the more dismissive ones start off their podcast with “Well, it finally happened!” Like it was something he’d been expecting.
I think the guy you're referring to is Joe Marino, the host of Locked On Bills.
He's normally great, but was extremely dismissive of the idea that Diggs might get traded and went as far as to say if anyone suggests it, you're "only showing that you're not an informed fan." Now that it has happened ... crickets.
I hope he addresses this at some point, because he had a very similar take on Tremaine Edmunds and finally admitted that he was very wrong after several weeks of not addressing Bernard's outperformance last season. I listen to the guy every day and love his podcasts, but he seems to not be willing to take the L when it matters.
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1 hour ago, Conlan58 said:
How you can post something so matter-of-factly the same week this team took a dead cap hit of 31M is beyond my comprehension. You really think a couple million guaranteed to a backup that hasn't performed anywhere is going to stop them from drafting a QB they like?
Lol... "you're welcome"...
No, but it's going to stop the drafted QB from getting 2nd team reps. Which means he probably won't even have a chance to compete for the #2 role.
You don't sign a backup to big money, then the same offseason draft a guy to hope to replace him. It would be a terrible strategy unless you feel that the backup QB spot is so important that you need to burn a 5th round pick on the prayer that a guy who doesn't get 2nd team reps coming in might be so good that he shows over just a few weeks of training camp that's he's better than the established backup who has starting experience.... which best case scenario, makes you take a big guaranteed money loss.
It's stupid and won't happen.
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8 hours ago, Conlan58 said:
I'd say any time you have an opportunity to draft a QB you like in the later rounds, you do it. Look at how much weight was put into any QB that got to learn behind Brady - it definitely was a net positive for the Pats. I don't see why it wouldn't be here.
13 hours ago, Desert Bills Fan said:Was doing a mock draft and he was there in late 5th.
i like him as a Josh Allen type of back up. Could play similar style to Josh if we ever needed a backup to step in a couple games.
and sitting behind Josh a couple years…could develop into something special.
what do you think?
I'm going to save you guys a little future embarrassment and let you know why there is zero chance of this happening.
Mitch Trubisky signed a 2-year contract with the Bills and a lot of it is guaranteed, which means he's the backup.
That means whoever you draft is going to be on the practice squad... until they inevitably get stolen off the practice squad by another team.
Thus, it would be a wasted pick. This example happened with Jake Fromm. Remember?
We drafted him in the 5th. He went to the practice squad. He got stolen by the Giants. Zero compensation. All they had to do was give him a roster spot.
So... unless you expect us to carry 3 QB's on the active roster (which never happens) or expect Joe Milton to take Mitch's job before the season starts and have us take a huge loss on a guaranteed contract to Mitch, there is no reason to do this.
You're welcome.
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6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
What you are saying is true. A 2nd rounder is a 2nd rounder and in reality there is value. We got a solid return in any event.
However, when trading for future picks there is the addition to the move that the pick in and of itself is largely unknown. There is a big difference between pick 33 and pick 65. And while we can estimate right now that Minnesota "sould" end up drafting top 10 or maybe even top 5...anything can happen. I'm sure that teams dealing with Houston in last year's draft felt whatever picks they were getting for this year would be pretty high. Didn't end up that way.
Another good recent example is us trading for Rasul last year. At the time the trade was made it looked like the return pick from GB would be high up in the round. They got hot late, made the playoffs and that pick sank.
That's where the devaluation comes in.
The part that baffles me is how it devalues all the way to a 3rd.
If the Vikings win the Super Bowl, it's still a 2nd round pick.
It feels like people are complaining just because it's more dramatic and fun to say "we basically got a 3rd."
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All the people saying “a 2nd round pick next year is only valued at a 3rd” will be thanking the heavens when the Vikings draft top 5 next year.
A 2nd round pick is a 2nd round pick. Have a little patience.
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3 hours ago, Trogdor said:
Because we've never seen a team turn it around with a rookie QB
Over the past 10 years, one total QB has led his team to >10 wins in his rookie season.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-wins-by-a-rookie-qb-in-there-first-season
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1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:
A 2nd in 2025? Is that right? That's equivalent to a 3rd this year. Ouch we got fleeced!
A *Minnesota 2nd in 2025.
Minnesota, being one of the worst teams in the league. Their QB will either be a Rookie or Sam Darnold. Terrible Defense and the Offensive Line and RB are terrible too.
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Need to know if any financial considerations were part of this as well.
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So ... the consensus #2/#3 QB, Jayden Daniels is still on the board at #11.
The Giants, Titans, Falcons, and Jets all pass on him at picks 6-10.
We really think they would take people like Dallas Turner and Jared Verse instead of a QB with Franchise upside?
I typically love this thread, but it's off to an embarrassing start.
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Maybe it's just me, but I feel like lusting for RB's is for people who don't know ball.
They're one of the lowest paid positions on the field.
If it's a top 3 guy like McCaffrey, Henry, or Jacobs, I might get a little excited. Actually ... I wouldn't even get very excited about Jacobs.
Everybody else is Meh.
Do I care if we get Zeke or Dobbins or roll with Ty Johnson (a guy on the waiver wire all through training camp last year) as RB2?
Not really. Same for KC. Don't care.
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Simple media strategy.
Pick a top 3 QB.
Say he’s not top 3 and somebody else is.
Get clicks from both fan bases AND the others who think their QB is top 3, rather than the one you said.
Its click-bait.
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Alright, I tried.
This is not a coaching issue. It's a player issue. You don't slide protection away from the best player on the defensive line unless you have to.
We're not going to agree on this one because you guys would rather blame coaching and say the Center is irrelevant and all those other hot takes. We'll see what happens on draft day.
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
That was Chris Jones on Dawkins, not on Morse. Anyways, Chris Jones is a mismatch against any offensive lineman in the final minutes of a game, other than maybe 6 or 7 guys in the entire league. You aren't going to get over the hump by improving at center and expect to just take Chris Jones out of the game. We get over the hump by out scoring KC. Which means when three perfect deep balls hit the intended receiver in the hands, we can't have all three of them hitting the ground.
Where did I say it was Morse?
Do me a favor. Keep an open mind. Watch the last drive, starting at 6:40:
1st play -- 6:40 -- McGovern stonewalled. Morse chips NOBODY and immediately moves to the 2nd level. It's the miscommunication we heard about all season between McGovern and Morse.
2nd play -- 7:42 -- Yes, Dawkins left on and island against Jones. McGovern singled inside. O'Cyrus stays inside to help who? Morse. For those who understand the intricacies of O-Line play... you NEVER want Dawkins singled up on a player like Jones on a passing down. You want McGovern to slide protection left and confidence in Morse to handle his own on the interior. They didn't do that. Why do you think that is?
3rd play -- 8:27 -- Right Tackle and Right Guard singled up. Help on Morse's side again. Morse holds his block (with help), but the right side gets blown up on singles, forcing Josh to roll right and throw the ball away.
Center was the weak link last year. You can see this every game. We cut Morse and he signed for $5M/yr by the Jags, who are overpaying everyone.
Feel free to argue that Center isn't important, but the money tells you the value of what we had and why we made a change.
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J T O'Sullivan's The QB School
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Shakir’s lack of arm length was the reason he slipped so far in the draft. It makes it really hard for him to pluck the ball away from corners.
He’s best as a Z receiver (slot) but can play outside in a pinch. Probably not the guy you want to primarily line up outside.