Jump to content

Watkins101

Community Member
  • Posts

    1,107
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Watkins101

  1. 20 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

    I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

     

    It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

     

    So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

     

    I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

     

    Totals:

    11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

    6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

     

    2021:

    1st Round

    Ja'Marr Chase ++

    Jaylen Waddle ++

    DeVonta Smith ++

    Kadarius Toney

    Rashod Bateman

     

    2nd Round

    Elijah Moore

    Rondale Moore

    D'Wayne Eskridge

    Tutu Atwell

    Terrace Marshall Jr

     

    2020:

    1st Round

    Henry Ruggs

    Jerry Jeudy

    CeeDee Lamb ++

    Jalen Reagor

    Justin Jefferson ++

    Brandon Aiyuk ++

    2nd Round

    Tee Higgins ++

    Michael Pittman ++

    Laviska Shenault

    KJ Hamler

    Chase Claypool

    Van Jefferson

    Denzel Mims

     

    2019:

    1st Round

    Marquise Brown

    N'Keal Harry

    2nd Round

    Deebo Samuel ++

    AJ Brown ++

    Mecole Hardman

    JJ Arcega-Whiteside

    Parris Campbell

    Andy Isabella

    DK Metcalf ++

     

    2018:

    1st Round:

    DJ Moore ++

    Calvin Ridley

    2nd Round:

    Courtland Sutton

    Dante Pettis

    Christian Kirk

    Anthony MIller

    James Washintgon

    DJ Chark

     

    2017:

    1st Round:

    Corey Davis

    Mike Williams ++

    John Ross

    2nd Round:

    Zay Jones

    Curtis Samuel

    JuJu Smith-Schuster

     

    2016:

    1st Round:

    Corey Coleman

    Will Fuller

    Josh Doctson

    Laquon Treadwell

    2nd Round:

    Sterling Shepard

    Michael Thomas +?

    Tyler Boyd

     

    2015:

    1st Round:

    Amari Cooper ++

    Kevin White

    DeVante Parker

    Nelson Agholor

    Breshad Perriman

    Phillip Dorsett

    2nd Round:

    Devin Smith

    Dorial Green-Beckham

     

    So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

    Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams.  Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career. 

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  2. 17 minutes ago, JPP said:

    Exactly.....Not a huge McD fan all in all....but this past season completely demolished with all the injuries....imagine if a fully healthy Milano-Bernard-White and CBs going in/out of injury and all the other defensive players....no doubt we would of seen this team in the SB IMO...

    I doubt it. Milano is a difference maker sure and Bernard certainly would have been a help.  Tre however, had been a non-factor since his ACL tear. The defense may have played better with them in the lineup, but without them they were allowing 7.7 yards per play against the chiefs. I don’t think adding them in does enough to stop the chiefs. 

  3. 21 hours ago, krf139 said:

    Lost in the Diggs news of this week is how wrong the Buffalo media have been about Diggs over the past year:

     

    - WGR hosts routinely dismissed callers who raised Diggs' behavior as an issue

    - Team beat reporters took pride in pushing back on the national narrative that Diggs was an issue and could be traded.  They would boast about how they're local, on the ground and more tuned into the team.  They'd highlight the cap hit and claim that anyone from the national media who suggested a Diggs trade didn't understand the cap implications.  They loved going on national shows to tell everyone how much they know about the team and how the national narrative about a Diggs issue was wrong and potential trade wasn't happening.  Matt Bove even tweeted that Diggs wasn't getting traded literally less than 10 minutes before the trade was reported

    - Tim Graham (who I previously thought was one of the few good ones) is now reporting how Allen snapped at Diggs after the Week 1 loss to the Jets.  It's such a disservice and somewhat disingenuous to withhold information like this until he's gone.  It highlights how many of these folks care far more about maintaining relationships/access to the players than holistically reporting what's going on with the team - especially a week 1 incident involving a player who was the talk of the offseason

     

    It's unfortunate we don't have media members covering the team who we can trust.  I can only wonder what will continue to come out about the Diggs situation, or what would come out about McDermott re: 13 seconds if he gets fired. 

    To be fair, having more articles about how broken Diggs’ relationship with the team was would not help his trade value. 

  4. I think a lot of fans are overvaluing him based on his later season production. We’ve seen this before with Multiple different recievers. Robert Foster in 2018 had ~500 yards in the final 8 games and  fans thought he could be a 1b/2 receiver, instead he didn’t even reach 100 yards the next year. Gabe Davis had the huge Chiefs game and fans thought he’d be a great 1b (that could be a #1 on many teams). The next season, the discussion was whether he was good enough to be a 2. 
     

    I think he is a great 4 Wr who has a good chance at being a good 3 Wr. I think he can get 300-600 yards and be a decent weapon. If we don’t draft/sign a 2 and/or 3 he may get more production in the regular season, but come playoff time our offense will suffer. (Unless Kincaid turns into Kelce)

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 1
  5. The Chief’s only regulation TD was less than 20 yards off a turnover. The 49ers defense had 2 turnovers, 3 sacks, forced 5 punts and allowed 19 regulation points. This is a defense that was key to bringing the 49ers to the superbowl. Meanwhile, the Bills had 1 turnover, 0 sacks, and forced 1 punt while allowing 27 points. The 49ers allowed an average of 5.8 yards per play, meanwhile the Bills allowed 7.7. How does Sean McDermott still have a job when he was leading the Bills defense?

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Vomit 1
    • Eyeroll 2
    • Agree 1
  6. 17 minutes ago, Process said:

    The guy gets praised as an offensive genius and rightfully so, but he sure does choke in big games. 

     

    3 superbowls with double digit leads. 3 losses. (2 as HC)

     

    Several examples of players not executing last night, including fumbles and missed passes, so not all coaching. But it starts at the top and Bills fans should know, it's hard to overcome a HC that puts the team in bad spots. 

     

    Questionable calls on multiple key third downs, not prepared at all for KC blitz

    Stretch where it seemed like he got away from the run too much

    Could have got the ball back before halftime with 50 seconds and 1TO, but elected to let the clock run out

    Chose to receive in OT, which is inexcusable IMO. And then made it even worse by kicking the FG instead of going for a TD

    Players didn't even know the overtime rules until they saw it on the jumbotron before OT

    I don’t think that it’s inexcusable, there’s pros and cons to recieving or deferring. Deferring, you have more information so you know if you need to go for it on 4th down or not. However, if you were to both score a touchdown or a field goal, then going first gives you a big advantage as whoever scores next would win. 

  7. 26 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:

    Chiefs play mistake free in big games. The Bills don't. 

    This wasn’t really mistake free football for the Chiefs, they had a pair of turnovers last night. In the last 3 seasons, the Bills have had 6 playoff games and had a total of 4 turnovers in the playoffs. 3 of those were in a Dolphin’s game that I would hardly call a “big game”. The Chiefs had more turnovers in that one game than the Bills have had in their last 3 playoff losses combined. The bigger difference is the Chiefs defense doesn’t just get ran through in the playoffs against a good offense. Our Dline disappears and we don’t get any semblance of pressure, and the secondary already struggles to cover elite weapons such as Kelce, Hill, or Chase.  In the Bills’ last two losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs,  the Chiefs averaged 7.6 and 7.7 yards per play. The Bengals loss was a more reasonable 5.8, but that is still not a number that indicates the defense is doing its job. 
     

    Sure, we could say that we lost because of Bass’ mistake, but that seems pretty silly considering the Chiefs still has nearly 2 minutes left and we’re averaging 7.7 Yards per play. The Bills couldn’t even get the Chiefs to third down when they knew they were running, little to no chance we stop the Chiefs from getting a field goal. You could also blame the offense for barely not getting that touchdown, whether it be Diggs dropping the pass, Allen not taking the safer option, or The oline for allowing the pressure, but if you’re calling that much a mistake, the Chiefs clearly made plenty last night (2 turnovers and a few sacks). Difference is, they have a defense that doesn’t just fold, and made up for the turnovers by forcing 3 and outs. They don’t allow 13 seconds to happen.  In this Postseason, of any of the Chief’s opponents, the Bills scored the most and allowed the most points to the Chiefs. 
     

    You say the Bills make mistakes in big games, and the Chiefs don’t but I disagree. Both teams make mistakes for sure, but the bigger difference between the two is that the Bills’ defense disappears in big games, the Chiefs’ doesn’t. 

    • Agree 1
  8. 8 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

    Yeah, we turn it up in the playoffs too. They just turn it up a little higher.

    Our offense turns it up. Our defense leaves a lot to be desired. 7.7 yards per play is nowhere. Lose to good enough.

  9. 9 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

    Yes McDermott made Bass 25% in the playoffs.   Think about that 25% has a kicker ever had a worse playoffs?

     

    And still it's McDermott...God people.

    Even if Bass makes the kick, the way our defense was playing, we still likely lose.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  10. 16 minutes ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

    I, like everyone else, thought San Francisco was the class of the league and possibly destined for the SB. They are drowning right now. Lamar Jackson just had a Tyrod Tayor game. If we can hurdle the Chiefs, the world is ours, man. 

    I mean if Lamar Jackson had a Tyrod Taylor game and they still won by 24 points, that seems pretty dominant to me.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 2
    • Haha (+1) 1
  11. 3 minutes ago, Italian Bills said:

    Just curious: what’s the process to clear a concussion protocol ? 

    Gotta go through 5 steps to get cleared. 
    1. Symptom limited activity (stretching/balancing ususally)

    2. Aerobic exercise 

    3. Football specific exercise (strength training, mimicking sport specific activities)

    4. club based non contact drills (no contact jersey, but can do most else)

    5. Full football clearance (needs independent Neurological consultant’s approval) 

     

  12. I don’t know, I think what Tomlin has done well with the team he’s been given. Since 2019, the QBs have been Mason Rudolph (bad), Duck Hodges(also bad), an Ancient Big Ben (who rarely threw more than 10 yards downfield), Kenny Picket (mediocre at best), and a little bit of mitchel trubisky(somehow worse). That’s a drought era level of Qb play. Somehow Tomlin got his team into the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years.

    • Agree 1
  13. 4 hours ago, Gugny said:


    Cal me crazy, but I’m pretty sure the two teams in each Conference Championship Game have a 50/50 chance at making the Super Bowl. 

    Yes, but If the bills/Steelers met in the divisional round, the winner of that game has a roughly 50% shot at making the Super Bowl, just as he said. 
    And like @strive_for_five_guy said, the odds that would happen 3 times in a row would be (.5*.5*.5) which is 12.5%. @Beast

     

    Of course that assumes the two conference championship teams have the same chance of winning, however reality is slightly different. 

  14. Anything short of making the conference finals and McDermott should be out. Losing to the Steelers would be an embarrassment and would be an offense worthy of termination. Our most likely opponent in the second round is the Chiefs, and losing to them a 3rd time in the playoffs in 4 years would not give me confidence McDermott could take us to the Super Bowl. Similarly, losing to a QB out of retirement or a rookie QB in the playoffs would not bring confidence, and would make me want to look for better options.

    • Like (+1) 1
  15. 12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

     

    Miami too.  

     

    And for all the complaining we do about our receivers, in the AFC the only teams that arguably have better receivers than we do are Cincy and Miami.  

     

    But Cincy's on a backup QB and Miami has Him and Waddle, that's it.  If one of them goes down they're in a world of hurt and will have to turn to their "Sherfield" again.  

     

    Diggs, Davis, Kinaid, and Shakir have about 2,600 Yards & 18 TDs.

     

    Chase, Boyd, & Higgins have about 2,100 Yards & 11 TDs.

     

    Hill & Waddle have about 2,400 Yards & 15 TDs.  No other receiver on their team has more than 207 yards or 2 TDs.  

     

    We easily have the best receiving TE, possibly in the AFC, given Kelce's age & looming retirement.  

     

     

    Couple things to take into account here: You’re comparing receivers groups based on their total yards/TDs, but not factoring in the effect of the QBs throwing the ball. IMO, Cinci and Miami definitely have better WR groups. And if we’re going based on yards, Texans also have a better WR group.
     

    And as for Kincaid, he’s not the best yet. Kelce is still clearly better right now, and Evan Engram and Mark Andrews have both outperformed him so far. (Kincaid is 13th in yards and tied at 20-33 for TDs) 

    • Like (+1) 1
×
×
  • Create New...